Trump 2024 ???

[BugI02]

The important part that makes a conviction big trouble for Trump isn't that it has to be a majority of Republicans not voting for him. He's in a virtual tie with Biden (RCP shows Biden +0.4, which is meaningless.

Trump needs all the independents and Republicans who could bring themselves to vote for him, either eagerly or with nostrils clenched. And possibly, if Biden gets into much deeper **** about his influence peddling side hustle, which tends to bring his approvals down further. And however many supporters Biden loses, that's a little buffer for Trump. But as it is now, it's looking like Trump needs all the people polling his way now. He can't afford to be convicted.

The poll has sampling errors obviously. Even figuring that in, Trump likely loses if he's convicted of a felony, all else being the same. And I'm not happy about that. I'm not telling you this because I want trump to lose assuming he's the nominee. If he's what we got, he needs to win. I don't like the results of that poll, sampling notwithstanding.

But you go through all the complicated ******** above, which doesn't change the meaning of the poll. It's either because you don't want to admit that I'm right that conviction makes a difference, or Idunno, maybe you just have to feel like Trump's got this, and **** on anything that suggests it's a bigger hill to climb than you think.

I really don't understand this blind faith that makes Trumpers think they're part of some kind of silent majority of voters that will win it all for him in 2024. That's just fantasy. You guys thought you'd get a red wave in 2022 and Trump's picks got **** on. In 2016 Trump won some key swing states by a very thin margin, and if they'd have gone the other way, by a thin margin, Hildabeast would have been the HBIC.

Reading too much into it, Dawg

I'm showing that it's a y poll even if the manipulation they admit to is all the manipulation they did. They obviously have an agenda and tweaked it until they got what they want, and you have NO idea just how much 'massaging' has been done. Given that, why are you so anxious to believe that it shows what you want it to show? Confirmation bias?

 

[jamil]

Reading too much into it, Dawg

I'm showing that it's a y poll even if the manipulation they admit to is all the manipulation they did. They obviously have an agenda and tweaked it until they got what they want, and you have NO idea just how much 'massaging' has been done. Given that, why are you so anxious to believe that it shows what you want it to show? Confirmation bias?

I have no idea how much massaging they've done. But neither do you. I think those polls are likely true because it rings true that if Trump is convicted it will affect people's vote. And massaging or not, there's a lot more support for that than there is that some silent majority is gonna save our ass whether Trump is convicted or not.

Do you seriously think that Trump's tie with Biden will hold if he's in prison by November? There is ZERO evidence of that. At least I have a ****ty poll to support at least some loss of support for Trump. You believe in pixie dust or maybe just blind faith.

 

[BugI02]

Oh. And 2022 election demographics turned out to be way different from 2020, and 2024 will be different from 2022. The demographics are changing. And it don't look like that's in a direction that favors Trump.

'Just what you see on the shelf, buddy'

I went for the maximum similarity to what Rooters was polling for, '20 was the most recent presidential race demographics available

If you'd like to tell me what the 2024 demographics will be I can have fun with that, too

I enjoy watching you compelled twist things out of shape to prove you have to be right

 

[BugI02]

I have no idea how much massaging they've done. But neither do you. I think those polls are likely true because it rings true that if Trump is convicted it will affect people's vote. And massaging or not, there's a lot more support for that than there is that some silent majority is gonna save our ass whether Trump is convicted or not.

Do you seriously think that Trump's tie with Biden will hold if he's in prison by November? There is ZERO evidence of that. At least I have a ****ty poll to support at least some loss of support for Trump. You believe in pixie dust or maybe just blind faith.

You should be looking at the numbers on whether people believe the prosecutions of are legit or just lawfare. I don't see someone who thinks Trump was prosecuted on ginned up, weak charges for political purposes caring one whit whether he is convicted or not when it comes time to vote

Maybe look at the numbers for how many people have lost faith in the integrity of the justice system, too. You think they're going to just hang their heads and go 'He's been convicted, I cannot vote for him in good conscience. The hem of my garment would be forever soiled'

I think it is people more like you, who are constantly looking for a reason why it has to be someone other than Trump, will seize on 'but he's a convicted criminal' as one more justification to wash their hands (as if they needed one). But there just aren't as many people like you as you seem to think

 

[Tombs]

In 2016 we got Trump because Clinton was deeply unpopular among independent voters and because Clinton never really inspired the working-class base.

In 2020 the message was clear: no more Trump.

Now, after four years of Biden dropping the ball time and again, republicans would have a real opportunity to attract those independent voters…I don’t think it makes sense for their message to be “how about more Trump?”

I honestly think Ramasaway or (maybe) even Pence would trounce Biden in the general, but Trump motivates people to vote against him more than for him at that level of competition.

Pence would result in biden being re-elected.

Trump being in prison would result in Trump being elected. Hell, I'll write him in if necessary if that happens.

Vivek is the most promising thing to come out of the republican party in a long time but most of his policies will absolutely make anyone even marginally left of center lose their mind. That said life experience has taught me people care far less about policy than they do extraneous ******** on the flashing picture box.

 

[manifest destiny]

Not worthless. Or at least not worthless if they're sampled correctly. They were a lot closer in 2016 than people thought.

Worthless without exception, actually. They're inaccurate even when administered appropriately. And "closer than people thought" is still wrong. The polls were wrong. Look, polls are fun. Polls are invocative. Polls are wrong. Polls are used for the purpose of debate. Monday=blah, blah is X. Tuesday=blah, blah is Y. Wednesday=blah, blah, blah - Trump Sucks!!! Or some variation there of.

 

[manifest destiny]

Vivek is the most promising thing to come out of the republican party in a long time but most of his policies will absolutely make anyone even marginally left of center lose their mind.

I find it weird he hasn't felt the full wrath of opposition yet. Maybe they don't think he's a threat? Maybe he's a spoiler for Trump? Vivek straight brings it. Why the lack of attack on him?

 

[Tombs]

I find it weird he hasn't felt the full wrath of opposition yet. Maybe they don't think he's a threat? Maybe he's a spoiler for Trump? Vivek straight brings it. Why the lack of attack on him?

They planted more insidious and underhanded attacks against him. Like putting him on the WEF website.

If they are ever convinced he has a chance of winning, expect them to start labeling him a white supremacist, if they haven't already. It's only a matter of time until they direct their attacks at him.

You'll see people like leftygunner back here ranting at full steam about how he's a neo-nazi when the media starts their attack.

 

[Libertarian01]

Hmm. Only six?

No offense my friend, but that certainly makes one question how much value your opinion has to conservatives?

I know many more folks than this. However, these are the number that I have spoken with directly regarding politics recently.

So, exactly how many conservatives should I know to have my observations and opinion valued...?

Are your friends from swing states?

Seriously, those are just anecdotal datapoints. We would need something more aggregate like a poll to have some sense of how this might play out. So far Trump is staying even with Biden in the swing states this far, and short of a Trump conviction, I don’t see that changing much. Which probably means Biden wins because Bug doesn’t have enough hands to compete with the purple hair army of Democrat ballot ho’s to save Ohio from Biden.

So for those friends of yours who won’t vote for Trump, the polls suggest they have counterparts that say they will vote for him.

All of them are Hoosiers. All of them live in Fort Wayne.

You're correct, these are anecdotal. However, these were all republican voters who mostly supported Trump in 2016 against Hillary and now 5/6 of them will refuse to support Trump because of... Trump. Also, all of them are Indiana republicans, not east coast republicans. Most are very fiscally conservative.

The point I was trying to make with real numbers is that even here, in Indiana, a deeply red state, republicans that I know and have talked politics with are falling away from the presumed presidential nominee.

Regards,

Doug

 

[HKFaninCarmel]

More people voted for him in 2020 than 2016. His "toxic brand" gained voters. Go figure.

It also gained voters for Biden. His brand was so toxic that his endorsed candidates got slaughtered in the most GOP friendly environment in decades.

Live in a bubble? What kind of reasoning is that? Talk about koolaid. It doesn’t matter who you know. The polls account for that. Trump and Biden have been consistently running even. That means, for every Trump hater you know, there’s a trump voter. But, to address your bubble further this is Indiana. It’s a sort of Maga country. Trump will carry Indiana if he’s the nominee. So all your friends are a sort of anomaly. They’re voting against the majority in Indiana. I’m not in the bubble. I’m just trying to figure out what’s discernible as real. Polls, such as they are, are probably way better predictors than your friends.

Indiana will vote red, sure—part of why I live here. The point was that the other poster who knows reliably red voters who won't pull the knob for Trump isn't alone. We're not both the anomaly. It's why he can't win. But when the polls account for a majority who either won't or most likely won't vote for Trump, it gets dismissed as fake news inside the bubble.

 

[jamil]

'Just what you see on the shelf, buddy'

I went for the maximum similarity to what Rooters was polling for, '20 was the most recent presidential race demographics available

If you'd like to tell me what the 2024 demographics will be I can have fun with that, too

I enjoy watching you compelled twist things out of shape to prove you have to be right

I was just thinking the same of you. First, I don't have to be right. I'm comfortable enough agreeing with what has the strongest case. I have no idea what you think I twisted. The poll says what it says. You don't like what it says so you set about nitpicking it in a way you'd never apply to something that says what you like.

And you push the irrelevant stuff that's easy as if that matters. You made a much bigger deal about the poll's error margins not supporting that a majority of Republicans would drop Trump if he's convicted/jailed. I never asserted that about the poll. I only said Trump's support decreases if he's convicted. The poll's error margins put the number far lower than half, but it's far greater than zero.

I think Trump will win the primaries even if convicted. He has strong support in the GOP, either way, plus, he's not likely to get a conviction before he's already wrapped up the nomination. But, in the general election, it's a different story. For the number of people who would drop him because he's convicted to make a difference, it does not have to be anywhere near a majority. I suspect you understood this, but you pushed the easier but irrelevant point because you're not arguing for the strongest case. You're arguing against the outcome you don't like.

You have nothing but blind faith to suggest that Trump won't lose voters if he's convicted. The evidence suggests he will. Now I'm sure you'll go off and scour the internet searching high and low for something you can use to defend your position founded on nothing concrete. And then weave some teal in with it for a ridiculously complicated argument.

 

[Ingomike]

I have no idea how much massaging they've done. But neither do you. I think those polls are likely true because it rings true that if Trump is convicted it will affect people's vote. And massaging or not, there's a lot more support for that than there is that some silent majority is gonna save our ass whether Trump is convicted or not.

Do you seriously think that Trump's tie with Biden will hold if he's in prison by November? There is ZERO evidence of that. At least I have a ****ty poll to support at least some loss of support for Trump. You believe in pixie dust or maybe just blind faith.

Didn’t we see polls that said if Trump was indicted he would lose a years or so ago? Polls say just what the pollsters want them to…

 

[jamil]

I know many more folks than this. However, these are the number that I have spoken with directly regarding politics recently.

So, exactly how many conservatives should I know to have my observations and opinion valued...?

Yeah, well that's fine to have your observations *help* you form your opinions. But if that's all you use, you live in a bubble by definition, right?

All of them are Hoosiers. All of them live in Fort Wayne.

Ah. That explains it. Fort Wayne. Home of...Rusty York. I rest my case.

Ooh. Let's go back farther. Paul Helmke.

You're correct, these are anecdotal. However, these were all republican voters who mostly supported Trump in 2016 against Hillary and now 5/6 of them will refuse to support Trump because of... Trump. Also, all of them are Indiana republicans, not east coast republicans. Most are very fiscally conservative.

What you're not considering is the ones you don't know who still wear the hats and will definitely vote for Trump.

The point I was trying to make with real numbers is that even here, in Indiana, a deeply red state, republicans that I know and have talked politics with are falling away from the presumed presidential nominee.

Regards,

Doug

They just don't do much state level polling for Indiana because they expect Trump to win big here. And Indiana just flat out does not matter in primary races because it's usually pretty much over by the time Indiana has its primary. But let's just pretend for a minute that Indiana primary is on super Tuesday and that we matter.

I think you'd agree with me that Trump will likely win big here. The point I'm making about that is that he's not going to win 100-nothing in the GOP primary. Your friends will among the folks on the losing side. But, if those voters only talk to each other, 100% of of them are not voting for Trump. I mean if you're trying to say some people won't vote for Trump I think we already understand that.

 

[jamil]

Didn’t we see polls that said if Trump was indicted he would lose a years or so ago? Polls say just what the pollsters want them to…

Maybe. But last year after Trump was raided we saw people rally behind him. AFter the first indictment we saw people rally again behind him. They rally behind him because they think he's innocent. They think this is unjust. I think it makes sense to rally behind him.

Okay, so then I think what the poll numbers would flesh out to in reality depends on whether people think Trump got a fair trial or not. So the number of people who would dump Trump would tend to be proportional to the number of people who believe he was justly convicted. I think that's a non-zero number.

But also I think it's gonna come down to what facts come out in court. If the case against him comes off as flimsy but he's then convicted, I don't think he's going to lose much support. If it comes off as solid...he done. 4 more years of the Biden White House.

 

[jamil]

Worthless without exception, actually. They're inaccurate even when administered appropriately. And "closer than people thought" is still wrong. The polls were wrong. Look, polls are fun. Polls are invocative. Polls are wrong. Polls are used for the purpose of debate. Monday=blah, blah is X. Tuesday=blah, blah is Y. Wednesday=blah, blah, blah - Trump Sucks!!! Or some variation there of.

The ultimate poll is the election. Short of that it's no better than a prediction with a margin of error. So we know it's not exact from the start, but that does not mean it's not accurate. We're not trying to predict the margin of victory for the winner. The GOP primary polls, for example.

If it weren't for polls you guys wouldn't know the extent to which Trump is trouncing everyone in the field. That information is not worthless. When people say Trump can't beat Biden, the polls say right now, yes he can. He's dead even within the margin of error. That doesn't predict who will win. It predicts that Trump can win. So that's not worthless.

When it shows a landslide victory, that's valuable too. DeSantis, Ramaswammy, the fat ass pussbag, whatsherface, and whomever else is in the race, all have a very low shot at the nomination according to polls if, we're predicting the GOP winner. That's not worthless.

 

[jamil]

I find it weird he hasn't felt the full wrath of opposition yet. Maybe they don't think he's a threat? Maybe he's a spoiler for Trump? Vivek straight brings it. Why the lack of attack on him?

I think it's too early for them to full on attack him. First, he's pretty articulate and clean and can handle himself in an interview. I wouldn't read too far into a lack of attacks. He's still a nobody at this point. If he starts racking up states and looks to be the nominee, they'll start attacking him. But I think the main focus is on Trump and keeping him out of power.

 

[jamil]

It also gained voters for Biden. His brand was so toxic that his endorsed candidates got slaughtered in the most GOP friendly environment in decades.

Indiana will vote red, sure—part of why I live here. The point was that the other poster who knows reliably red voters who won't pull the knob for Trump isn't alone. We're not both the anomaly. It's why he can't win. But when the polls account for a majority who either won't or most likely won't vote for Trump, it gets dismissed as fake news inside the bubble.

He can win here. So you're the anomaly here. When it comes to the nomination, he's going to win that too. Probably by a lot. So will he win in the general election? That's the question. Polls so far say maybe. And those poll numbers that consistently put Trump and Biden even in the swing states, have accounted for you and your friends. You only get one vote. The intensity of your ire does not translate to more than the one vote you get.

 

[bwframe]

...he can't win...

 

[Libertarian01]

Yeah, well that's fine to have your observations *help* you form your opinions. But if that's all you use, you live in a bubble by definition, right?

We all live in a bubble to some degree. I'll freely admit that. That's not all I use, but I do think it is not entirely irrelevant either.

Ah. That explains it. Fort Wayne. Home of...Rusty York. I rest my case.

Ooh. Let's go back farther. Paul Helmke.

While Fort Wayne has a larger liberal demographic than rural Indiana, it still leans strongly conservative, at least compared to Indianapolis or Gary.

What you're not considering is the ones you don't know who still wear the hats and will definitely vote for Trump.

I agree. They are out there in force. My point is that force is weakening.

They just don't do much state level polling for Indiana because they expect Trump to win big here. And Indiana just flat out does not matter in primary races because it's usually pretty much over by the time Indiana has its primary. But let's just pretend for a minute that Indiana primary is on super Tuesday and that we matter.

I think you'd agree with me that Trump will likely win big here. The point I'm making about that is that he's not going to win 100-nothing in the GOP primary. Your friends will among the folks on the losing side. But, if those voters only talk to each other, 100% of of them are not voting for Trump. I mean if you're trying to say some people won't vote for Trump I think we already understand that.

Trump will win the primary. Not just in Indiana but in most, if not all state primaries. With 25 - 30% of self-identified republicans willing to follow him anywhere he goes he is a sure bet for the nominee. The way republicans run their primaries it's "winner take all" in most states. So all there has to be is four (4) other candidates splitting the vote amongst them and he wins no matter what.

Then I believe he will lose the general election.

Regards,

Doug

 

[foszoe]

End justifies the means, eh? Just lie back and enjoy it?

Nicolás Maduro approves of this post

Then Nicholas Maduro also is jumping from a statement of being to a statement of justification with no bridge between the 2 except he didn't reply.