Trump 2024 ???

[HKFaninCarmel]

He can win here. So you're the anomaly here. When it comes to the nomination, he's going to win that too. Probably by a lot. So will he win in the general election? That's the question. Polls so far say maybe. And those poll numbers that consistently put Trump and Biden even in the swing states, have accounted for you and your friends. You only get one vote. The intensity of your ire does not translate to more than the one vote you get.

Sure, but those folks that made Warnock and Fettterman Senators are going to keep folks on here saying they got screwed twice.

 

[Ingomike]

They are out there in force. My point is that force is weakening.

Do you have any proof of this? If he is weakening why does he support go up when each indictment happens?

 

[jamil]

We all live in a bubble to some degree. I'll freely admit that. That's not all I use, but I do think it is not entirely irrelevant either.


While Fort Wayne has a larger liberal demographic than rural Indiana, it still leans strongly conservative, at least compared to Indianapolis or Gary.


I agree. They are out there in force. My point is that force is weakening.

My point is that we don't identify trends by anecdotes. "Weakening" is a trend. Having the people you interact with all the time saying that they're not voting for Trump this time does not take into effect people who might be joining the Trump train. I'm not saying that support is not weakening. But I think we need a more aggregate source to establish that as a trend.

This does:

I think favorability is a descent measure of support. Polls of actual voters saying who they'll vote for aggregated over time would be a better measure, but this will do.

Okay so overall the best fit line is trending up. Over the last year it's trending down. Year to date it's trending up. Since May he's trending down.

Are there died in the wool Trumpers dropping him? I don't think so. Are independents who are capable of finding fault with Trump doing so? Regularly.

Trump will win the primary. Not just in Indiana but in most, if not all state primaries. With 25 - 30% of self-identified republicans willing to follow him anywhere he goes he is a sure bet for the nominee. The way republicans run their primaries it's "winner take all" in most states. So all there has to be is four (4) other candidates splitting the vote amongst them and he wins no matter what.

Then I believe he will lose the general election.

Regards,

Doug

Again, polls are consistently showing that Trump and Biden are in a virtual tie. If Democrats put almost anyone else up besides Biden or Lady Hoover against Trump I think Dems would win. But, I'll add that the polls don't really reflect Democrats' capacity to gen up votes instantaneously from seemingly nowhere.

 

[SheepDog4Life]

There should be a degree of common sense to tell you that either they are a serious threat and if angered we'd have a different government. Or that they're average joes who got a bit more rowdy than they realized during a protest, likely being instigated by undercover federal officers, and left as soon as a gun was fired.

These wild views of the situation contain multiple incompatible points.

"a bit more rowdy than they realized..."

I hope you realize that to people who don't fawn over Trump, those words sound a whole lot like the "mostly peaceful" description of the 2020 riots.

 

[SheepDog4Life]

Trump will win the primary. Not just in Indiana but in most, if not all state primaries. With 25 - 30% of self-identified republicans willing to follow him anywhere he goes he is a sure bet for the nominee. The way republicans run their primaries it's "winner take all" in most states. So all there has to be is four (4) other candidates splitting the vote amongst them and he wins no matter what.

Then I believe he will lose the general election.

Regards,

Doug

Actually, I don't think that has been the case in the past... but was changed since 2016 to "rig" the primary for Trump.

For example, prior to this year, the California Republican primary "split" the delegates by congressional district and then a few for the state... so to win ALL of the CA delegates you had to win all over the state... delegates were very much split up...

This time... no, one vote more than the next guy/gal and you get all of the CA delegates.

Rigged specifically for Trump... by the "establishment"...

ETA: Part of the reason he could care less about IA/NH.

 

[rhamersley]

For some reason this just seemed to belong here...

New Poll Finds 70% Of Republicans Believe Trump More Trustworthy Than Jesus

NEW YORK, NY — A shocking new poll of registered Republican voters has revealed that an astonishing 71% believe former President Donald Trump is more trustworthy than Jesus Christ.

babylonbee.com

 

[KLB]

Uh-oh. The Bee is now in the Never-trumper camp. They poked fun at the Donald.

 

[DoggyDaddy]

"a bit more rowdy than they realized..."

I hope you realize that to people who don't fawn over Trump, those words sound a whole lot like the "mostly peaceful" description of the 2020 riots.

Yeah, can you believe they burned the Capitol building to the ground like they did? It's just like the "mostly peaceful" BLM and Antifa demonstrations! Oh wait...

 

[SheepDog4Life]

Yeah, can you believe they burned the Capitol building to the ground like they did? It's just like the "mostly peaceful" BLM and Antifa demonstrations! Oh wait...

Most folks in the middle inveigh a pox on both... 'member how many purchased their first firearm after the BLM/Antifa riots?

They disbelieved the "mostly peaceful".

They also disbelieve "just a bit rowdy":

 

[DoggyDaddy]

Most folks in the middle inveigh a pox on both... 'member how many purchased their first firearm after the BLM/Antifa riots?

They disbelieved the "mostly peaceful".

They also disbelieve "just a bit rowdy":

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Oh yeah, there was that big run of first time gun buyers after Jan 6. Oh wait, that didn't happen either.

 

[BugI02]

Worthless without exception, actually. They're inaccurate even when administered appropriately. And "closer than people thought" is still wrong. The polls were wrong. Look, polls are fun. Polls are invocative. Polls are wrong. Polls are used for the purpose of debate. Monday=blah, blah is X. Tuesday=blah, blah is Y. Wednesday=blah, blah, blah - Trump Sucks!!! Or some variation there of.

Polls, especially aggregated ones like in the RCP average, CAN serve as a barometer of sentiment. Rising barometric pressure generally presages clear skies and calm weather

Rising proTrump pressure generally presages rising attacks from those who want something different, because it's different, not because it guarantees a different outcome; and testy weather rolling in from I-don't-have-a-guy land

 

[SheepDog4Life]

Oh yeah, there was that big run of first time gun buyers after Jan 6. Oh wait, that didn't happen either.

No, it didn't because TPTB locked up every single person who stepped foot in the capitol building... even the ones that showed up after the doors and windows were smashed... And is sentencing them to hard time. Bigly. And those folks in the middle are hunky-dory with that... because of the way they view the Jan 6th storming of the capitol.

That didn't happen in the Summer of 2020... it should have... but it didn't.

But keep whistling past the cemetery and telling each other Jan 6th was no big deal... and Trump can win on a "2020 stolen election" platform. And when the Dems re-take the WH and Senate as well as control the of House in 2024... remember...

THIS IS WHAT YOU'RE VOTING FOR... and I will remind you all of this every time you complain about the tyranny that follows when the Dems control everything and can do everything on their list.

THAT is what time it is!

 

[jamil]

No

Uh-oh. The Bee is now in the Never-trumper camp. They poked fun at the Donald.

No. ABT. There’s a distinction. You should be able to find it in one of these threads written in teal.

 

[bwframe]

Trump lies. The dems only misinformation...

Trump and his allies double down on election lies after indictments for trying to undo 2020 results

Donald Trump is doubling down on debunked claims about the 2020 election as he fights criminal charges that he sought to overturn the will of the voters and seeks a second term.

apnews.com

 

[BugI02]

You have nothing but blind faith to suggest that Trump won't lose voters if he's convicted. The evidence suggests he will. Now I'm sure you'll go off and scour the internet searching high and low for something you can use to defend your position founded on nothing concrete. And then weave some teal in with it for a ridiculously complicated argument.

I just enjoy the gyrations you exhibit to avoid admitting that Trump is the available candidate with the best chance of winning, not a lock but the best chance

You are shown the data that 30% of all republican voters will vote for Trump no matter what, to the extent they would follow him to a third party. A little hand-waving and that becomes that Trump will lose votes because the people that hate him will doom him (and they somehow outnumber that 30% so are more worth pursuing), but you never deal with the fact that if you get your wish the people that love Trump will likely doom your alternative not your guy. When called on it, you don't deal with the fact the only way your plan works is if you can take that 30% for granted to vote for not your guy (without evidence that that is likely)

Desantis is propped up as the guy who can win it and he does a Michigan Mig23 imitation, but that never prompts any doubt that you know how things will go/should go. When I respond to another poster that I would like to see Ramaswamy be the understudy/#2 and of course that can't be a truly held position but has to be pique based solely on my dislike for DeSantis

None of my opinions can be held in good faith but of course, all of yours are

You have become a caricature of what you believe yourself to be, all in service to a flawed self-image you just can't see around or through. People like you are just as likely to lead us into the abyss as people like me, but you will never see the light

“We humans like to think we are creatures of reason. We aren't. The reality is that we make our decisions first and rationalize them later....Your illusion of being a rational person is supported by the fact that sometimes you do act rationally.”
― Scott Adams

 

[SheepDog4Life]

Uh-oh. The Bee is now in the Never-trumper camp. They poked fun at the Donald.

No

No. ABT. There’s a distinction. You should be able to find it in one of these threads written in teal.

NT or ABT (or both) is academic... definitely TDS.

 

[DoggyDaddy]

And those folks in the middle are hunky-dory with that... because of the way they view the Jan 6th storming of the capitol.

So you think a proper response to trespassing is to lock someone up for months or even years awaiting trial, or without even being charged yet? Yeah, nothing tyrannical about that.

 

[BugI02]

No

No. ABT. There’s a distinction. You should be able to find it in one of these threads written in teal.

Yes. Anybody Before Trump, adjusted to minimize (but not end) persnicketyness and
pedantry (because it still doesn't perfectly suit some pedants)

 

[SheepDog4Life]

So you think a proper response to trespassing is to lock someone up for months or even years awaiting trial, or without even being charged yet? Yeah, nothing tyrannical about that.

Me, no... the ones who smashed windows and doors in... maced or otherwise assault LEO... attempted to storm the locked door of the chamber, sure. Throw the book at them... fullest extent of the law (just like those who actively broke the law beyond curfew violations during the BLM/Antifa riots SHOULD have been)

Those dumb enough to walk in and walk around after the breach? No, trespassing charges only. Those "waved in" by the LEO? No charges... not even trespass.

People saw the violent, criminal storming of the capitol on Jan 6th in real time! My daughter told me about it was the first I knew... Tucker's videos of people walking around, staying between the velvet tour ropes is "true", and might be all there was for some, maybe most, of those present that day. But in the whole, no more an accurate definition of the whole than the similarly cherry-picked videos the Jan 6th committee presented.

Tyrannical? Yes, absolutely... but be sure to remember that THIS IS WHAT YOU ARE VOTING FOR in closing your eyes and burying your head in the sand regarding Trump.

 

[BugI02]

Sure, but those folks that made Warnock and Fettterman Senators are going to keep folks on here saying they got screwed twice.

The folks who made Warnock and Fetterman senators were named Raffensperger and Boockvar