Trump 2024 ???

[DoggyDaddy]

Tyrannical? Yes, absolutely... but be sure to remember that THIS IS WHAT YOU ARE VOTING FOR in closing your eyes and burying your head in the sand regarding Trump.

Trump didn't have those people put in jail for what amounted to misdemeanors. That most certainly is NOT what I am voting for. So are you going to support Biden now? Because it was his administration responsible for that injustice.

 

[Tombs]

"a bit more rowdy than they realized..."

I hope you realize that to people who don't fawn over Trump, those words sound a whole lot like the "mostly peaceful" description of the 2020 riots.

Considering those people also believe anyone right of mao is a russian spy, I don't really care what they think.

 

[jamil]

Trump lies. The dems only misinformation...

Trump and his allies double down on election lies after indictments for trying to undo 2020 results

Donald Trump is doubling down on debunked claims about the 2020 election as he fights criminal charges that he sought to overturn the will of the voters and seeks a second term.

apnews.com

I mean, it's a lie if he knows the truth and intentionally tells people something else to deceive them. It may be that he believes something other than reality, but I have no doubt that he believes it. So I'd say it's not a lie.

 

[HKFaninCarmel]

The folks who made Warnock and Fetterman senators were named Raffensperger and Boockvar

A Republican? Explain Kemps victory then? CIA? Venezuelans? Russian disinformation?

This is insanity.

 

[jamil]

I just enjoy the gyrations you exhibit to avoid admitting that Trump is the available candidate with the best chance of winning, not a lock but the best chance

I think at this point Trump is pretty much it. I am fairly certain under the circumstances, he'll win the nomination. He's what we got. Not a lock, and not the best for the job, but the way this looks to be playing out, he is going to be the best chance we got to oppose ClownWorld™. That chance is going to be better if he's not in prison by November.

This is what I've been saying for the last several pages of INGO election threads. I don't know how you come away thinking that there are any gyrations happening or any failure to admit that.

You are shown the data that 30% of all republican voters will vote for Trump no matter what, to the extent they would follow him to a third party. A little hand-waving and that becomes that Trump will lose votes because the people that hate him will doom him (and they somehow outnumber that 30% so are more worth pursuing), but you never deal with the fact that if you get your wish the people that love Trump will likely doom your alternative not your guy. When called on it, you don't deal with the fact the only way your plan works is if you can take that 30% for granted to vote for not your guy (without evidence that that is likely)

You keep thinking that I'm talking about the primary. I don't think there will be an alternative to Trump by May. I think Trump will win the primaries. He will be the nominee. You keep clinging to this "not your guy" **** and even if that were true, which it isn't, it's not relevant to the discussion now. You're about a month late.

What you're replying to is about the general election. You understand what kind of voting system we have, right? In November, Trump has to have a majority of votes to win a state's electors (in some states they do a proportion, whatever). And the winner must have a majority of electors. That 30% of all republican voters that you have stuck up your backside at the moment, will indeed help in November towards that 50% OF ALL VOTERS. Trump needs a lot of help from voters who don't know every distinctive scent coming from Trump's crotch.

So, that sentiment identified by the poll you're trying so hard to dismiss, will hurt Trump in the general election, because many of those who don't know what Trump's crotch smells like will bolt if Trump is convicted before November.

Desantis is propped up as the guy who can win it and he does a Michigan Mig23 imitation, but that never prompts any doubt that you know how things will go/should go. When I respond to another poster that I would like to see Ramaswamy be the understudy/#2 and of course that can't be a truly held position but has to be pique based solely on my dislike for DeSantis

I think DeSantis is a better man than Trump, but given the circumstances he does not have a bigger personality. But, DeSantis is irrelevant. He might be out by super tuesday if nothing miraculous happens to save him.

None of my opinions can be held in good faith but of course, all of yours are

I don't think you're expressing your opinions in good faith. You keep misrepresenting things I say. Why should I take you in good faith at all?

You have become a caricature of what you believe yourself to be, all in service to a flawed self-image you just can't see around or through. People like you are just as likely to lead us into the abyss as people like me, but you will never see the light

That means absolutely nothing. I think you started to believe the straw you've fabricated. But it's decaying in the teal dirt from whence it came.

“We humans like to think we are creatures of reason. We aren't. The reality is that we make our decisions first and rationalize them later....Your illusion of being a rational person is supported by the fact that sometimes you do act rationally.”
― Scott Adams

I understand and have written about this myself. It's like Jonathon Heidt's analogy of the elephant and the rider. The elephant goes 99% wherever the **** he wants, and the rider maybe has 1% input. Reason is a real thing. We are indeed creatures of reason, however, the evolutionary purpose of reason is to justify our instincts.

 

[SheepDog4Life]

Trump didn't have those people put in jail for what amounted to misdemeanors. That most certainly is NOT what I am voting for. So are you going to support Biden now? Because it was his administration responsible for that injustice.

Assaulting a LEO is not a misdemeanor.

Breaking and entering is not a misdemeanor.

Felony trespass is not a misdemeanor.

Wandering in afterwards... yeah, that's a misdemeanor.

Biden? Nah, **** will have to freeze over and not even then... but ditto Trump who pressured Pence to re-elect him.

 

[DoggyDaddy]

Assaulting a LEO is not a misdemeanor.

Breaking and entering is not a misdemeanor.

Felony trespass is not a misdemeanor.

Wandering in afterwards... yeah, that's a misdemeanor.

Biden? Nah, **** will have to freeze over and not even then... but ditto Trump who pressured Pence to re-elect him.

Well have fun with your Romneys and Murkowskis. You seem to be more politically aligned with them. I prefer my R's not to have a hidden D after their name.

 

[jamil]

Actually, I don't think that has been the case in the past... but was changed since 2016 to "rig" the primary for Trump.

For example, prior to this year, the California Republican primary "split" the delegates by congressional district and then a few for the state... so to win ALL of the CA delegates you had to win all over the state... delegates were very much split up...

This time... no, one vote more than the next guy/gal and you get all of the CA delegates.

Rigged specifically for Trump... by the "establishment"...

ETA: Part of the reason he could care less about IA/NH.

I'm pretty sure it's been winner-take-all in most states.

 

[jamil]

Polls, especially aggregated ones like in the RCP average, CAN serve as a barometer of sentiment. Rising barometric pressure generally presages clear skies and calm weather

Rising proTrump pressure generally presages rising attacks from those who want something different, because it's different, not because it guarantees a different outcome; and testy weather rolling in from I-don't-have-a-guy land

Does it really bother you that much that some people don't care to invest that kind of faith in a politician? What's wrong with not being fiercely loyal? I mean. You get to think and say the truth about all sides. What's wrong with that?

I have no curiosity at all what Trump or DeSantis's or any other politician's crotch smells like. I don't plan on ever having my nose anywhere near that. But, it's a free country. Sniff away.

 

[indyblue]

 

[DragonGunner]

GA puts $200,000 bond on Trump. Trump tweeted out that’s the price if your a flight risk, she think I’m going to flee the country, Russia, Russia, Russia…going over to stay with Putin. Lol, Trump isn’t interested in friendship with these evil demonic people, what’s not to like. Doug Tennapel on YouTube is killing it on this.

 

[DragonGunner]

The faces of the two CNN people is priceless.

 

[KG1]

 

[BugI02]

A Republican? Explain Kemps victory then? CIA? Venezuelans? Russian disinformation?

Changes to election law under the guise of 'the Covid emergency' that made it less secure and more open to fraud. Those changes originated with the Secretaries of State, not the legislature. Naked power grab in service of the uniparty. Kemp made sure to change that before his own 2022 election, so he was aware of the problem but didn't do anything about it. Simp

 

[d.kaufman]

Well have fun with your Romneys and Murkowskis. You seem to be more politically aligned with them. I prefer my R's not to have a hidden D after their name.

I think this might of been his shill account

Hello. Liberal gun owner here.

I shoot, hunt, camp, fish ols school style mostly.

www.indianagunowners.com

 

[BugI02]

What you're replying to is about the general election. You understand what kind of voting system we have, right? In November, Trump has to have a majority of votes to win a state's electors (in some states they do a proportion, whatever). And the winner must have a majority of electors. That 30% of all republican voters that you have stuck up your backside at the moment, will indeed help in November towards that 50% OF ALL VOTERS. Trump needs a lot of help from voters who don't know every distinctive scent coming from Trump's crotch.

So, that sentiment identified by the poll you're trying so hard to dismiss, will hurt Trump in the general election, because many of those who don't know what Trump's crotch smells like will bolt if Trump is convicted before November.

But you find that poll so tasty and delicious that you just won't think about it. !005 people, selected who knows how from a pool of Ipsos simps not a random sample. Now try to keep up, if 52% of that sample wouldn't vote for a convicted Trump, 444/44.2% ARE DEMOCRATS. Do you think any of them are voting for Trump, convicted or not? So to get to your vaunted 52%, the poll only needed at most 79 more respondents willing to go there. Ipsos is a French firm with a US headquarters at 200 Park Ave in NYC; what do you want to bet their simp pool is also entirely or largely NYC based? You might not think so, but how would you actually know given the dearth of particulars about that roster. So, what do you think the odds are you could find 79 republicans or 'independents' from among the remaining 561 simps (1 out of 7) that would be willing to say they wouldn't vote for Trump if he was convicted? How many of THOSE wouldn't be voting for Trump convicted or not?

I would entertain the possibility that the oversample of republicans and the huge under sample of 'independents' was likely necessary in order to mask the fact they likely drew heavily on a non-random sample (Biden won NYC by 76 to 23%, 85% if you just draw from Manhattan) So even a more random sample would likely skew 3 : 1 against Trump citywide and skew 5.5 : 1 against Trump if limited only to Manhattan. The hand waving over the 'raw' data would likely also be in service of making it less obvious how non-random their sampling actually is

Maybe you should post a poll asking the same question sampled entirely from the counties adjacent to DC, that would probably make it even more likely that most democrats aren't going to vote for Trump if he is convicted

You're not immune from confirmation bias, you just like to pretend you are

 

[jamil]

But you find that poll so tasty and delicious that you just won't think about it. !005 people, selected who knows how from a pool of Ipsos simps not a random sample. Now try to keep up, if 52% of that sample wouldn't vote for a convicted Trump, 444/44.2% ARE DEMOCRATS. Do you think any of them are voting for Trump, convicted or not? So to get to your vaunted 52%, the poll only needed at most 79 more respondents willing to go there. Ipsos is a French firm with a US headquarters at 200 Park Ave in NYC; what do you want to bet their simp pool is also entirely or largely NYC based? You might not think so, but how would you actually know given the dearth of particulars about that roster. So, what do you think the odds are you could find 79 republicans or 'independents' from among the remaining 561 simps (1 out of 7) that would be willing to say they wouldn't vote for Trump if he was convicted? How many of THOSE wouldn't be voting for Trump convicted or not?

I would entertain the possibility that the oversample of republicans and the huge under sample of 'independents' was likely necessary in order to mask the fact they likely drew heavily on a non-random sample (Biden won NYC by 76 to 23%, 85% if you just draw from Manhattan) So even a more random sample would likely skew 3 : 1 against Trump citywide and skew 5.5 : 1 against Trump if limited only to Manhattan. The hand waving over the 'raw' data would likely also be in service of making it less obvious how non-random their sampling actually is

Maybe you should post a poll asking the same question sampled entirely from the counties adjacent to DC, that would probably make it even more likely that most democrats aren't going to vote for Trump if he is convicted

You're not immune from confirmation bias, you just like to pretend you are

In one of these threads I talked about my own confirmation bias. No one’s immune to it. I have never said I was.

I’ve been saying, that some people who are supporting Trump now, will not support Trump if he’s convicted. Normally, folks wouldn’t need a poll to confirm that. Now. Normal people would just say, yeah, duh. But not the fiercely loyal Trumper, who could smell a Trump fart and swear it’s vanilla. Nope. It can’t possibly be that not everyone supporting Trump today is exactly as fiercely loyal as you. Some people smell a fart, even from the orange god, and say, dang that stinks.

And then there’s your math. C’mon man. Do you seriously think that Trump will not lose any votes if he’s convicted. And like I said before. He’s gonna be it. I don’t want Trump convicted because that’s likely gonna mean he will lose. It’s a tossup anyway. It’s not gonna take that many voters bailing on Trump to end up with another 4 years of Democrats.

 

[SheepDog4Life]

I'm pretty sure it's been winner-take-all in most states.

Most have not been... here's 2016. CA and a few other states were only all for Trump because all others withdrew by that time...

 

[SheepDog4Life]

Well have fun with your Romneys and Murkowskis. You seem to be more politically aligned with them. I prefer my R's not to have a hidden D after their name.

Well, have fun with Chuck Schumer, Hakeem Jeffries and whoever the Dems run for President instead of Biden running the country... that's what you are voting for... I prefer my R's not to be losing losers who lose to the Dems, pull all of the Rs down with them over petty fragile ego BS and let the Dems completely take over.

And remember, when it comes to pass, THIS is what you are voting for....

 

[SheepDog4Life]

For those all in on Trump, because they believe he can beat Biden this time... what happens if Biden is not the Dem nominee?