Trump 2024 ???

[BugI02]

This part of your post is what becomes the real issue should reliable evidence ever be presented, whether it's 2020 or elections in the future. As a nation we might want to give some thought as to how we can correct such a scenario. Through all the rigamarole, I haven't found a specific answer that wasn't just 'legal theory'.

Nuremberg dance party

 

[jamil]

Since we're talking Presidential Election here, I went to 2020 election demographics, which were 33% Democrats, 29% Republican and 34% Independent. For a sample of 1005, that would translate into 332 Democrats, 291 Republicans and 342 Independents

So, before they even get to the hand-waving 'adjustments' to the sample, it is overweighted Democrat by 33.7%, overweighted Republican by 22% and underweighted Independent by 33.9%

And it isn't a truly random sample of public opinion, it is a massaged sample of a standing group of willing contributors with the massaging supposedly making it a more representative sample but the 'adjustments' applied being opaque/proprietary? Do they have some Roebling property for sale near the East River?

And it took all of that smoke and mirrors just to get a bare majority of a supposedly representative sample to indicate they wouldn't support Trump if he is convicted? And why would there be a difference in the support results between just convicted and in jail - aren't they indicative of the same thing? Or does that indicate even among such a spurious sample a distinction will be made between convicted in kangaroo court or convicted after appeals are exhausted

The important part that makes a conviction big trouble for Trump isn't that it has to be a majority of Republicans not voting for him. He's in a virtual tie with Biden (RCP shows Biden +0.4, which is meaningless.

Trump needs all the independents and Republicans who could bring themselves to vote for him, either eagerly or with nostrils clenched. And possibly, if Biden gets into much deeper **** about his influence peddling side hustle, which tends to bring his approvals down further. And however many supporters Biden loses, that's a little buffer for Trump. But as it is now, it's looking like Trump needs all the people polling his way now. He can't afford to be convicted.

The poll has sampling errors obviously. Even figuring that in, Trump likely loses if he's convicted of a felony, all else being the same. And I'm not happy about that. I'm not telling you this because I want trump to lose assuming he's the nominee. If he's what we got, he needs to win. I don't like the results of that poll, sampling notwithstanding.

But you go through all the complicated ******** above, which doesn't change the meaning of the poll. It's either because you don't want to admit that I'm right that conviction makes a difference, or Idunno, maybe you just have to feel like Trump's got this, and **** on anything that suggests it's a bigger hill to climb than you think.

I really don't understand this blind faith that makes Trumpers think they're part of some kind of silent majority of voters that will win it all for him in 2024. That's just fantasy. You guys thought you'd get a red wave in 2022 and Trump's picks got **** on. In 2016 Trump won some key swing states by a very thin margin, and if they'd have gone the other way, by a thin margin, Hildabeast would have been the HBIC.

 

[jamil]

Oh. And 2022 election demographics turned out to be way different from 2020, and 2024 will be different from 2022. The demographics are changing. And it don't look like that's in a direction that favors Trump.

 

[jamil]

I wasn’t going to vote Trump though I did the first 2 times. Not out of hate but because of a few things,,, was hoping another strong figure who would stop the spending and borrowing would step up,,,, none did though. And seeing Biden and the left destroy our Country, and seeing the ungodly evil plots against Trump has swung me back towards him. I could say more why I have seen Trump in another light, being used as a tool to accomplish some things and seeing those things more. Sadly, Trump may not be around, he is getting closer to the end of his life, I hope and pray as God lifts him up that he lifts other men up that will continue the good fight for America.

It doesn't really make me want to vote for him any more than without D's weaponizing government. I don't think that makes him any more qualified. But, I am pretty sure Trump will be the nominee unless something drastic happens. So I suppose the effect of that is that it makes me think it's even more important that Democrats lose. Also makes me think that Trump would be considerably more motivated to prioritize the swamp this time.

 

[HKFaninCarmel]

Are your friends from swing states?

Seriously, those are just anecdotal datapoints. We would need something more aggregate like a poll to have some sense of how this might play out. So far Trump is staying even with Biden in the swing states this far, and short of a Trump conviction, I don’t see that changing much. Which probably means Biden wins because Bug doesn’t have enough hands to compete with the purple hair army of Democrat ballot ho’s to save Ohio from Biden.

So for those friends of yours who won’t vote for Trump, the polls suggest they have counterparts that say they will vote for him.

Unless you live in a bubble, you know people like this. I know people who would vote for any Republican but won't consider Trump. His brand is toxic. This is why Trump parading candidates underperformed the generic R in 2022. Not everyone drank the Trump Kool-Aid.

 

[jamil]

Unless you live in a bubble, you know people like this. I know people who would vote for any Republican but won't consider Trump. His brand is toxic. This is why Trump parading candidates underperformed the generic R in 2022. Not everyone drank the Trump Kool-Aid.

Live in a bubble? What kind of reasoning is that? Talk about koolaid. It doesn’t matter who you know. The polls account for that. Trump and Biden have been consistently running even. That means, for every Trump hater you know, there’s a trump voter. But, to address your bubble further this is Indiana. It’s a sort of Maga country. Trump will carry Indiana if he’s the nominee. So all your friends are a sort of anomaly. They’re voting against the majority in Indiana. I’m not in the bubble. I’m just trying to figure out what’s discernible as real. Polls, such as they are, are probably way better predictors than your friends.

 

[manifest destiny]

He's in a virtual tie with Biden (RCP shows Biden +0.4, which is meaningless

You place a lot of faith in polling. I make no judgement on your personal faith in polls but I do not believe in polls. I don't even believe the ones that I agree with. They don't demonstrate realities, they drive narratives. Mainstream, modern, fair polling claimed Clinton would be victorious in 2016. Oops.

I really don't understand this blind faith that makes Trumpers think they're part of some kind of silent majority of voters that will win it all for him in 2024.

The did in 2016 and 2020. Sadly the majority of voters in 2020 didn't realize the unlimited ballots that would be systematically produced for Bidiot.

You guys thought you'd get a red wave in 2022 and Trump's picks got **** on.

No, the polls said there'd be a red wave. Oops. Oh, and Trump's picks went 8 out of 10. One of the two outliers is John Fetterman - judge that outcome as you will.

Trump. His brand is toxic.

More people voted for him in 2020 than 2016. His "toxic brand" gained voters. Go figure.

 

[LeftyGunner]

Oh. And 2022 election demographics turned out to be way different from 2020, and 2024 will be different from 2022. The demographics are changing. And it don't look like that's in a direction that favors Trump.

Biden was not trump…nothing more. In 2020 that was enough, democrat voters all turned out, and independents were turned off enough by Trump to give old joe a try.

Will being not Trump be enough in 2024?

For the reliably Democrat voters, that answer will be yes, absolutely, no questions about it. For those same independent voters that came out for Biden in 2020…I don’t think the same will be true.

It’s not that I think those voters gained an appreciation for Trump so much as lost their tolerance for Biden. In other words, I don’t think they even need to vote for Trump, they just need to stay home for Biden to lose.

To my read, it looks like it’s all going to depend on how many voters still dislike trump enough to go out and vote against him.

After all, as unpopular as Biden is, he’s still not Trump.

 

[Tombs]

Biden was not trump…nothing more. In 2020 that was enough, democrat voters all turned out, and independents were turned off enough by Trump to give old joe a try.

Will being not Trump be enough in 2024?

For the reliably Democrat voters, that answer will be yes, absolutely, no questions about it. For those same independent voters that came out for Biden in 2020…I don’t think the same will be true.

It’s not that I think those voters gained an appreciation for Trump so much as lost their tolerance for Biden. In other words, I don’t think they even need to vote for Trump, they just need to stay home for Biden to lose.

To my read, it looks like it’s all going to depend on how many voters still dislike trump enough to go out and vote against him.

After all, as unpopular as Biden is, he’s still not Trump.

Which is a miserable platform for the democrat party when they have someone like RFK Jr, and should absolutely be throwing biden under the bus by now.

Only existing to be "not the other guy" when your party has left down the country to such a degree, on the tail of some of the better times we've had economically under the other guy, is shameful.

 

[Ziggidy]

It’s not.

It is!

 

[manifest destiny]

It’s not that I think those voters gained an appreciation for Trump so much as lost their tolerance for Biden. In other words, I don’t think they even need to vote for Trump, they just need to stay home for Biden to lose.

Oh my God! Did the earth just shift on its axis?? Lefty just suggested Bidiot is intolerable.

 

[Ziggidy]

The polls account for that. Trump and Biden have been consistently running even. That means, for every Trump hater you know, there’s a trump voter.

Can you back that up?

 

[LeftyGunner]

Which is a miserable platform for the democrat party when they have someone like RFK Jr, and should absolutely be throwing biden under the bus by now.

In 2016 we got Trump because Clinton was deeply unpopular among independent voters and because Clinton never really inspired the working-class base.

In 2020 the message was clear: no more Trump.

Now, after four years of Biden dropping the ball time and again, republicans would have a real opportunity to attract those independent voters…I don’t think it makes sense for their message to be “how about more Trump?”

I honestly think Ramasaway or (maybe) even Pence would trounce Biden in the general, but Trump motivates people to vote against him more than for him at that level of competition.

 

[manifest destiny]

Polls, schmolls. They're fun to read, interesting to discuss, worthless otherwise. Polls can and are literally used to demonstrate talking points and drive discussion in directions that would otherwise not be organically discussed. If one were to take a poll about the sun rise, with some basic adjustments in wording, the results might demonstrate a society that believes the sun rises in the west.

 

[Route 45]

I honestly think Ramasaway or even Pence would trounce Biden in the general, but Trump motivates people to vote against him more than for him at that level of competition.

I think Ramaswamy would blow him away in the general election. I don't think Pence would.

 

[manifest destiny]

I honestly think Ramasaway or even Pence would trounce Biden in the general

Please, no.

 

[jamil]

Can you back that up?

Well. I don't think anyone is disputing that Biden and Trump are in a virtual tie. But if you want to see it:




A claim that his Trump hating friends are a reliable bellwether isn't supported by the polling.

 

[jamil]

In 2016 we got Trump because Clinton was deeply unpopular among independent voters and because Clinton never really inspired the working-class base.

In 2020 the message was clear: no more Trump.

Now, after four years of Biden dropping the ball time and again, republicans would have a real opportunity to attract those independent voters…I don’t think it makes sense for their message to be “how about more Trump?”

I honestly think Ramasaway or (maybe) even Pence would trounce Biden in the general, but Trump motivates people to vote against him more than for him at that level of competition.

Pence wouldn't do **** in the general election. Maybe some chamber-o-commerce fans might vote for him. Trumpers would probably stay home. Independents are important. And likely a lot of independents would vote for Pence. They can't do it on their own. I'd vote Libertarian before I'd vote for Pence.

But really there's that dynamic regardless. You've seen Mike and Bug pretty much rule out voting for anyone else but Trump. You have 1/3 of the Republicans ready to take their football home with them.

 

[jamil]

I think Ramaswamy would blow him away in the general election. I don't think Pence would.

Yeah, pretty much every died-in-the-wool Trumper would write in Trump, or vote for Trump third party if he ran. And honestly, I think Trump would run third party if Pence won the nomination.

 

[jamil]

Polls, schmolls. They're fun to read, interesting to discuss, worthless otherwise. Polls can and are literally used to demonstrate talking points and drive discussion in directions that would otherwise not be organically discussed. If one were to take a poll about the sun rise, with some basic adjustments in wording, the results might demonstrate a society that believes the sun rises in the west.

Not worthless. Or at least not worthless if they're sampled correctly. They were a lot closer in 2016 than people thought.