Malaysian Airlines Boeing 777 crash/shot down in Ukraine near Russian border

[T.Lex]

Hindsight? It was foresight that caused British Air, Air France, Quantas, all United States airlines and many others to avoid the area before the shoot-down. In fact, the majority of flights/airlines have been avoiding the area: "200 to 300 of the daily flights using the route had diverted elsewhere in recent months, leaving about 100 still operating."

Which leaves ~ 99 other pilots that made the same decision with no adverse consequences. So, at worst, it was a 1/100 chance of this happening. Still pretty good odds. (For all the mathemagicians out there, I realize this is a faulty chance prediction, just making an rough observation.)

I have several pilots in my family - grew up around aviation. Pilot error is, of course, a problem. But, there are enough things that get hung on pilots appropriately, that it is against my nature to go looking for more.

In this case, it was not restricted airspace. The pilot followed all the rules. He had a long flight, so fuel consumption was probably a concern. I have no idea what expected weather was further along the route or other issues that might impact the decision. I do know that diverting completely around the Crimean/Ukraine would have posed different risks and costs. All those other airlines you mention are well-capitalized. I suspect Malaysian Airways isn't.

Now, if you're looking for evidence of a conspiracy, that's a whole different kettle of fish.

Edit to add:

Nico Voorbach, president of the European Cockpit Association which represents pilots, said information from the intelligence services will be crucial in deciding whether the aviation authorities erred in not including the Russian-Ukrainian border in the exclusion zone. “I am a KLM pilot and fly over the area. If some intelligence agency did have information about a threat we need to know if it was shared with everybody.

“We will have to wait for the outcome of an accident investigation to see if a mistake was made."

 

[ArcadiaGP]

BREAKING: Shots fired by rebels at int'l team of investigators (OSCE) in Ukraine as they approach plane wreckage

 

[Expat]

BREAKING: Shots fired by rebels at int'l team of investigators (OSCE) in Ukraine as they approach plane wreckage

But if the rebels are innocent and the blame lies with the Ukrainian military, why would they want to keep investigators away?

 

[T.Lex]

From the Telegraph:

This is the latest breakdown of nationalities - remember that, in the past hour or so, the death toll for Britons has risen to 10, and Obama announced that one person with joint American-Dutch citizenship was on board. Malaysia's UN Ambassador Hussein Haniff told the council that 298 people perished and gave the following breakdown of their nationalities:

Netherlands (189)
Malaysia (44)
Australia (27)
Indonesia (12)
United Kingdom (10)
Germany (4)
Belgium (4)
Philippines (3)
Canada (1)
New Zealand (1)

 

[Birds Away]

Well, at least we don't have to worry about Obummer escalating anything.

 

[Jeremy1066]

Well, at least we don't have to worry about Obummer escalating anything.

He's already punished the russians for this by banning AK imports!

 

[Expat]

He's already punished the russians for this by banning AK imports!

This could help us. I could see Putin flooding the market with AKs stamped made in Ukraine or Georgia just to poke Obama in the eye.

 

[jstiz]

Well, at least we don't have to worry about Obummer escalating anything.

HA!!

 

[jamil]

All I can say is that Putin better be ready for the big ****ing red line coming. That one's gonna be a doozy.

 

[T.Lex]

Yes. Shooting down a civilian air liner is a red line that we will not allow to be crossed. Starting..... now.

 

[88E30M50]

Who thought that flying over a war zone was a good idea.

That's the million dollar question! During normal times, I'd have a hard time believing that a plane could intentionally be routed over a war zone in hopes of damaging the credibility of an enemy but in today's world, that is not quite as far fetched as it used to be.

 

[ArmedProgrammer]

In fairness - the USS Vincennes incident happened, was CLEARLY an accident, and was accompanied by an IMMEDIATE acknowledgement of the accident , profuse apology and reparations, as I recall. That's not what I'm hearing from Putin - even though he indirectly appears to have caused this. We aren't hearing it from the separatists either.

In this case, it's true that we were not directly targeted. It would be fair, in my mind, for the affected nations to funnel a crap ton of aid to the Ukraine and turn our back while they used a little of it on the separatists. I think it also fair for us to trim Putin's beak a little - he was funding this effort and hasn't exactly come clean. So if we feel like tightening the sanctions around his cojones, then I'm ok with it. I have to give Obama credit - his news conference today was about correct for the situation, no matter what I may think of him otherwise. The Dutch and the Malaysians are probably SERIOUSLY pissed right about now. I imagine that they are willing to donate to the cause...

 

[jamil]

That's the million dollar question! During normal times, I'd have a hard time believing that a plane could intentionally be routed over a war zone in hopes of damaging the credibility of an enemy but in today's world, that is not quite as far fetched as it used to be.

The supposed audio from a phone conversation among the separatists had one guy saying something like, "What the **** were they doing flying over a war zone?"

 

[ArcadiaGP]

“Ukrainian terrorists have endangered not just Russia, but the world. That is why we must take additional steps…” —Putin in 2 days.

Called it.

Malaysia Airlines Ukraine Crash: Putin Blames Ukraine - TIME

Putin: “I would like to note that this tragedy would not have occurred if there were peace in that country"

 

[Jeremy1066]

Just heard on the radio that a separatist commander said the bodies may have been dead for several days before the plane was shot down "drained of blood and wreaking of decomposition". Wow.

Conspiracy theories in 3...2...1...

 

[K_W]

Just heard on the radio that a separatist commander said the bodies may have been dead for several days before the plane was shot down "drained of blood and wreaking of decomposition". Wow.

Conspiracy theories in 3...2...1...

Explosion, decompression, high speed impact, and fire combined with smelly gut contents and bacteria will make it seem that way.

 

[88GT]

Just heard on the radio that a separatist commander said the bodies may have been dead for several days before the plane was shot down "drained of blood and wreaking of decomposition". Wow.

Conspiracy theories in 3...2...1...

Ripped apart generally makes exsanguination a quick event. Far less than several days.

And that's probably not biological decomp, but the putrid remains of burned flesh. Yeah, it's gonna reek.

 

[singlesix]

All I can say is that Putin better be ready for the big ****ing red line coming. That one's gonna be a doozy.

Did you forget the purple?

 

[Mark 1911]

In fairness - the USS Vincennes incident happened, was CLEARLY an accident, and was accompanied by an IMMEDIATE acknowledgement of the accident , profuse apology and reparations, as I recall. That's not what I'm hearing from Putin - even though he indirectly appears to have caused this. We aren't hearing it from the separatists either.

In this case, it's true that we were not directly targeted. It would be fair, in my mind, for the affected nations to funnel a crap ton of aid to the Ukraine and turn our back while they used a little of it on the separatists. I think it also fair for us to trim Putin's beak a little - he was funding this effort and hasn't exactly come clean. So if we feel like tightening the sanctions around his cojones, then I'm ok with it. I have to give Obama credit - his news conference today was about correct for the situation, no matter what I may think of him otherwise. The Dutch and the Malaysians are probably SERIOUSLY pissed right about now. I imagine that they are willing to donate to the cause...

I agree. One similarity between these two incidents is the use of surface to air missiles fired at an aircraft flying directly toward the radar source. It's difficult to distinguish a fighter craft from a commercial craft under those circumstances. A major difference in the downing of the Korean flight in '83 by the Russians was that the pilot of the Russian fighter had a clear visual on the Korean craft and was ordered to shoot it down even after he had repeatedly told his commanders that the craft was non-hostile.

Did Russian intentionally shoot down the Malaysia Air flight? Don't know. I'm just pointing out that there is a similarity to the Vincennes - Iran Air incident. Another factor that may have quickened the Russian's pull on the trigger is the fact that on the day before, the Russians shot down a Ukranian fighter in the area, which may have had them more jumpy than normal.

 

[jamil]

Did you forget the purple?

Oh no. I'm quite certain tha line will be red.