Malaysian Airlines Boeing 777 crash/shot down in Ukraine near Russian border

[1911ly]

It won't start a war. Russia is all talk. They are in violation of international law and killing innocent people. Why do we have these international military's if we aren't gonna use them to stop the worst guy since hitler? I stand by my choice to bomb

I am with you on this one!

 

[Vigilant]

Nobody dropped a bomb on us when the Vincennes downed an Iranian airliner? Why should we respond militarily even if U.S. Citizens were killed? We did nothing of substance when, ON PURPOSE, militants attacked our consulate in Libya, why bother with this, as US interests were not out an out targeted?

 

[HeadlessRoland]

Obama Literally Out to Lunch During Ukraine Downed Passenger Plane Crisis

 

[perry]

Crash claims top AIDS researchers heading to Melbourne

 

[churchmouse]

Who thought that flying over a war zone was a good idea.

 

[Phase2]

Who thought that flying over a war zone was a good idea.

You are not the only one asking this. Note from the image below that the last 10 flights of MH17 were south of the restricted zone, while the doomed flight was directly over it.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

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SBU intercepts phone conversations of separatists admitting downing a civilian plane

Ukrainian government claims the launcher which fired the missile has been spotted moving back towards Russian territory.


My guess for what'll happen? I think it was a mistake. I don't think this plane was the target. I think Putin will, privately, discuss it with the President. I think this is how a lot of international issues are likely softened... private discussions, mea culpas, and deals. Maybe Russia will lighten up in the coming months or something, due to this.

I just sincerely doubt Russia would want to have anything to do with killing 295 innocents, including potentially Americans. I think a cargo plane was the intended target, but incompetent separatists ****ed it up.

 

[T.Lex]

OK. You're in command now. And Russia has done this. What do you do? Let's hear your plan.

The Lex Doctrine (still a work in progress).

A comprehensive policy to guide decisions of both international and domestic policy. It balances on 3 components: freedom, democracy, and rule of law.

Executive summary: the US will actively support freedom, encourage democracy, and enforce the rule of law.

So, applying the doctrine to MH17, right now, we take no overt military action. We fast track missile defense systems and related placement of troops treaties with Poland, the Ukraine, and anyone else in Eastern Europe that makes sense. We use economic tools at our disposal to create incentives for Russia to de-annex the Crimean and restore Ukraine's borders.

We draw up plans to assist Ukraine in taking out violent separatists. We also assist the national government in understanding that peaceful protests are fine. If there are opposition parties that promote freedom, democracy and the rule of law, we offer support to them, too.

Militarily, we would rely on our intelligence assets. It is clear that the SAM units are poorly trained, which also probably reflects in the maintenance of their units. It would be a shame if the SA-11/-17 integrated command units suffered from mysterious explosions that reduced or eliminated their abilities to function. Meanwhile, totally unrelated, our stealth bomber force might get some increased live fire training cycles.

If that cleared the way for Ukrainian national gov't air strikes on the separatists, then that is up to them.

If it is clearly shown that the separatists downed the plane, then we would support direct strikes on the separatists. Clearly, they are dangerous to everyone with their new toys.

Again, this is still a work in progress, but it represents at least an order of magnitude more comprehensive foreign policy than the Obama administration has.

 

[T.Lex]

Nobody knows if that's true. They haven't been able to confirm any americans were on board yet.

Interestingly, I saw the initial reports of 20-something Americans.

Now, it looks like this is the breakdown:
173 from the Netherlands
44 from Malaysia
27 from Australia
12 from Indonesia
9 from UK
4 from Germany
4 from Belgium
3 from Philippines
1 from Canada
1 from New Zealand

From:
Vigil for Malaysia Airlines Flight MH 17 victims to be held in Chicago | abc7chicago.com

Now, it also depends on how they're counting. If the airline used addresses or something, it doesn't necessarily mean much. Visa or passport records would be more reliable.

Edit:
189 DUTCH
29 MALAYSIAN
27 AUSTRALIAN
12 INDONESIAN
9 BRITISH
4 GERMAN
4 BELGIAN
3 PHILIPPINES
1 CANADIAN
1 NEW ZEALAND
4 AS YET UNIDENTIFIED PASSENGERS ABOARD

 

[T.Lex]

You are not the only one asking this. Note from the image below that the last 10 flights of MH17 were south of the restricted zone, while the doomed flight was directly over it.

First, I hate it when people quote pics, so this is hard for me.

But, it is important to note that those other flights were still over disputed territory. In fact, it basically bisects the entire part of Ukraine/Crimea/Russia where the fighting is. So, the graphic is a bit misleading. There really wasn't a "good" way through that area.

Moreover, this from the regional air traffic control - Eurocontrol:

A briefing in Brussels on Friday was told that air space restrictions in eastern Ukraine had already been further extended on July 14 due to rising tensions in the region. Airlines were told the level at which it was considered safe to fly would be increased from 26,000ft to 32,000ft.
The Malaysian plane was flying at 33,000ft when it crashed.
An expert from Eurocontrol, the body responsible for overseeing air traffic control at EU level, said that since the restrictions were increased at the start of this week, 75 per cent of airlines had continued to use Ukrainian airspace.
However, the remaining 25 per cent, including British Airways and Air France, had altered their flight paths to avoid Ukraine.
British Airways said its flights did not use Ukrainian airspace, with the exception of a once-a-day service between Heathrow and Kiev.

So, while other pilots may have made different choices, there was nothing wrong with the choice this pilot made, when he made it.

 

[Jeremy1066]

You forgot about the veterans dying while waiting for medical care.
What if we find out that it was the Russians that shot down that plane? If it wasn't them, I think it's safe to say it was equipment supplied by them.

 

[Birds Away]

No, the SA-11/-17 is a serious weapon.

But, the cruising 777 would be an easy target, too.

Edit:

Something else just occurred to me - this might truly have been a mistake. An Su-25 (from either side) would be at a lower altitude, even if it was in transit somewhere. An aggressive SAM crew might've fired on the Sukhoi, which avoided thanks to countermeasures, but the missile just looked for another target.

Pure speculation, naturally.

Most of these systems have semi-active homing. That means the target must be illuminated by fire control radar and the missile homes on the reflected RF energy. This type of missile can't "look for" another target. Of course an untrained missile crew could conceivably just paint the wrong target. It is pretty hard to mistake a comair profile for hostile intent.

 

[Phase2]

So, while other pilots may have made different choices, there was nothing wrong with the choice this pilot made, when he made it.

I believe the results would argue otherwise. Given that this was a regularly scheduled flight and they had usually traveled around the active fighting (at least based on recent flights), I'd say they took an unnecessary risk and paid the price. I hope that Eurocontrol changes their advice to airlines as larger surface-to-air missiles are obviously now in the area.

 

[T.Lex]

Most of these systems have semi-active homing. That means the target must be illuminated by fire control radar and the missile homes on the reflected RF energy. This type of missile can't "look for" another target. Of course an untrained missile crew could conceivably just paint the wrong target. It is pretty hard to mistake a comair profile for hostile intent.

I thought the -17 version had active homing after a "release" from the tracking radar. Going from memory, though, so you may be right.

As you said, though, alot comes down to target identification. If a Russian/pro-Russian ground crew thought the 777 was Ukrainian, they probably would've shot it down no matter what it was.

I believe the results would argue otherwise.

Well, hindsight, and all.

Just because others made a different decision doesn't make this one "wrong." Plus, those SAMs are all over that area. Not sure if there was a "safe" area along any of those routes.

 

[Birds Away]

I thought the -17 version had active homing after a "release" from the tracking radar. Going from memory, though, so you may be right.

As you said, though, alot comes down to target identification. If a Russian/pro-Russian ground crew thought the 777 was Ukrainian, they probably would've shot it down no matter what it was.

I honestly don't know about that particular system. They are constantly evolving and I have been out of that game for a decade. "Most" ground based surface to air missiles, in my experience, are still semi-active. Mostly because the price goes way up for active capability.

 

[Birds Away]

I suspect you are right about the Russian/Pro-Russian missile crew. An airliner is like shooting fish in a barrel for almost any surface to air system.

 

[miguel]

Crash claims top AIDS researchers heading to Melbourne

Does the Tea Party have a SAM battery? Those homophobes probably knew this and shot it down on purpose.

p.s. Note, if you are color blind or using a NeXT with monochrome display, that is in purple.

 

[Phase2]

Well, hindsight, and all.

Just because others made a different decision doesn't make this one "wrong." Plus, those SAMs are all over that area. Not sure if there was a "safe" area along any of those routes.

Hindsight? It was foresight that caused British Air, Air France, Quantas, all United States airlines and many others to avoid the area before the shoot-down. In fact, the majority of flights/airlines have been avoiding the area: "200 to 300 of the daily flights using the route had diverted elsewhere in recent months, leaving about 100 still operating."

 

[OneShotFOGE]

You forgot about the veterans dying while waiting for medical care.
What if we find out that it was the Russians that shot down that plane? If it wasn't them, I think it's safe to say it was equipment supplied by them.

The news has been showing a conversation between the seperatists and a Russian military advisor. It was supplied by the Russians, and it was used by Russian proxy forces. Samantha Power, US Ambassador to the UN, just said that and much more at a UN meeting. US satellites saw the missile launch. Its getting pretty clear what happened.

 

[ModernGunner]

I dunno, I'm guessing Obama will 'retaliate' by cutting in line at a barbeque. THAT'LL 'teach 'em'.