Ebola on the horizon?

[longbow]

I heard today on the radio (and maybe this was mentioned earlier up thread), of the 4 hospitals set up for handling this disease there are a total of 11 beds... total...

I checked and the total number of beds is just under 30. However, there is the potential for a thousand beds to be set up with portable systems that are sitting in crates to be used if needed. However, they for the most part have been sitting around for years. These could be set up away from population centers.

 

[T.Lex]

Here's the another angle to this - as we can see from how it spread in West Africa, this was basically bound to happen sooner or later. People move. With this virus, it is very difficult to tell, in any given person, the precise moment they become contagious to another person. Individual hosts react to viruses in different ways. There is a range of reactions, of course, but contact with X amount of virus may be enough to infect one person, but not another.

At least, that's what it seems like to me. We can't really predict it. That gray area is why they spoon feed us the absurd "you can give it on a bus, but you can't get it" tripe.

More honesty about what they know and what they don't know would do more to keep people calm than the guessing that they do.

 

[ghuns]

I checked and the total number of beds is just under 30. However, there is the potential for a thousand beds to be set up with portable systems that are sitting in crates to be used if needed. However, they for the most part have been sitting around for years. These could be set up away from population centers.

These kids have a plan...

Young Architects Design against Ebola

Prolly too late for this go around, but maybe next time.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

CDC Warns Ebola Passenger ?Possibly? Symptomatic During Flight | Mediaite

 

[T.Lex]

That said, it don't cost nothin to close a few schools.

A couple here and there, for a couple days, maybe not. But, this is where the indirect cost of something like this comes into play.

To do it right, if there was a case, you'd have to shut them down for 21 days (42?). The parents then will lose time at work - maybe not even go to work - which will drain productivity.

There are always unintended consequences.

(New title for CDC - Centers for Diseases and Unintended Consequences.)

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Finally, travel restrictions!

Obama Administration Ebola Travel Restriction Military | The Daily Caller

... Against our military, not African civilians...

 

[T.Lex]

CDC Warns Ebola Passenger ?Possibly? Symptomatic During Flight | Mediaite

Yes. Because "possibly symptomatic" is the same as "not symptomatic" which is the same as "not contagious."

CDC thesaurus is very flexible.

 

[renauldo]

There's a guy on the news in Chicago that trades on the stock market floor. Apparently he's an authority on what drives the market. This morning he says the recent drop in the market will continue until at least the middle of next week. The drop is tied to the anticipated Ebola financial effect on business (airlines, shopping, dining out, sports events, and any where peopple gather) should the disease spread. Maybe it's obvious to eveybody, but I never thought of that aspect.

 

[Justus]

There's a guy on the news in Chicago that trades on the stock market floor. Apparently he's an authority on what drives the market. This morning he says the recent drop in the market will continue until at least the middle of next week. The drop is tied to the anticipated Ebola financial effect on business (airlines, shopping, dining out, sports events, and any where peopple gather) should the disease spread. Maybe it's obvious to eveybody, but I never thought of that aspect.

The WHO has been saying ^^this^^ for a couple of weeks now.... they expect ebola will play hell on the global economy

 

[T.Lex]

There's a guy on the news in Chicago that trades on the stock market floor. Apparently he's an authority on what drives the market. This morning he says the recent drop in the market will continue until at least the middle of next week. The drop is tied to the anticipated Ebola financial effect on business (airlines, shopping, dining out, sports events, and any where peopple gather) should the disease spread. Maybe it's obvious to eveybody, but I never thought of that aspect.

Totally. That's part of the reason (in very different ways) the economies of the West Africa nations will be hurt for a VERY long time.

If, as some predict, there are outbreaks in 6-7 cities, it will have a significant trickle-up effect on the whole economy. Malls will have a difficult time, probably. Even grocery stores.

It gets even more problematic if there are quarantines of neighborhoods. An apartment complex or house here and there is not much of an issue. But if you get a couple dozen confirmed cases in an area, scaling up the containment has an impact.

 

[renauldo]

If Ebola proves to be Zoonotic will all importation of animals be banned? Suppose fleas or bed bugs or even mosquitoes can spread it.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

NBC News: Nina Pham is expected to be transported from Dallas to NIH's isolation unit in Maryland

 

[pudly]

The Ebola Crisis as a Crisis of Public Trust - The American Interest

Ah, yup:

The public may also be confused by the seemingly contradictory nature of the simplest caricatures of public health messages: On the one hand, Ebola is difficult to contract, so don’t worry; On the other hand, if you are suspected to have been exposed to the virus, you could be placed under house arrest for three weeks.

Contradictory advice leads to images like this:

 

[ghuns]

Contradictory advice leads to images like this:

What's contradictory about it?

I can't say that I know for a fact what's going on, but let me guess; Yellow suit is one of the Dallas nurses who is positive for Ebola. White suits are CDC workers who are in direct physical contact with the patient. Casually dressed dude with a clipboard is the CDC supervisor ensuring compliance with protocols for transporting the patient.

 

[DanSwanky]

The supervisor is there to make sure that gurney gets back to going on ambulance runs asap (no cleaning required since there was a sheet on the bed). Cut him some slack.

 

[T.Lex]

WHO guidelines say a 1m separation from infected/suspected infected people is sufficient to avoid infection. Take that for what its worth.

 

[Bounty Hunter]

Maybe the guy in the plain clothes has been vaccinated?

 

[ghuns]

Maybe the guy in the plain clothes has been vaccinated?

Maybe because he knows more than your average keyboard commando about infectious disease?

 

[T.Lex]

From Drudge:
Drexel Study Claims 21 Day Quarantine For Ebola Might Not Be Long Enough « CBS Philly

A new Drexel study published in the journal PLOS One suggests 21 days might not be a long enough quarantine period for those who have been exposed to the Ebola virus. The research, which was conducted by Professor Charles Haas, PhD, and used data from both previous outbreaks and the first nine months of the current outbreak, claims that there is still a .1 to 12% risk of that person developing the virus if they are released from quarantine after 21 days.

So, let's call that a 1/10 chance that 21 days isn't long enough to quarantine someone who might have a virus that has at least a 50% mortality rate.

(Granted, that's a HUGE range - anywhere from insignificant chance to 10% chance.)

 

[smokingman]

If Ebola proves to be Zoonotic will all importation of animals be banned? Suppose fleas or bed bugs or even mosquitoes can spread it.

Dogs are known carriers,as are quite a few other animals.Dogs seem to carry the virus but to not actually develop symptoms.The second link mentions the 2005 study.I had read the study a few months ago but with all the news on Ebola I can not seem to find it now with a search engine online(the words ebola and dog/s lead to the story in Spain of a dog put down or about the nurse in the USA with a dog,not the scientific paper).The first link is to a 2002 study which was not as in depth,but still proves dogs are known carriers."40 of the 159 dogs sampled in villages locatedwithin the Ebola virus–epidemic area (25.2% prevalence
rate) had detectable IgG to Ebola virus antigens."So 25% of the dogs they tested where carrying the virus at detectable levels.The second(2005) study provided much more information if anyone finds it please post a link.
http://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/11/3/pdfs/04-0981.pdf

“This study offers the first evidence that dogs might be asymptomatically infected by Ebola virus in the wild. This finding has potential implications for preventing and controlling human outbreaks. The increasing canine seroprevalence gradient from low-risk to at-risk Ebola virus–endemic areas indicates that this seroprevalence might be used as an epidemiologic indicator of virus circulation in regions where no other means of virus detection are available.”

Ebola in Dogs