CampingJosh
Master
- Dec 16, 2010
- 3,298
- 99
It was about trying to bike more, wasn't it?
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Be sure to read this post! Beware of scammers. https://www.indianagunowners.com/threads/classifieds-new-online-payment-guidelines-rules-paypal-venmo-zelle-etc.511734/
Coronovirus III
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It was about trying to bike more, wasn't it?
Did you take your blood pressure meds yet? Yes? Good.
It's $600 a WEEK, not a month. Plus regular unemployment. I have a relative who got laid off and is getting a significant bump in weekly pay to stay home and watch Netflix.
Here is how I come to the conclusion that we need to restart the economy and open businesses back up.
Facts. Yes, I like to use facts.
Fact #01) Coronavirus (AKA Covid-19) does exist. (Hereafter referred to as "the plague".)
Fact #02) The plague is deadly. It can kill people. People have died from the plague.
Fact #03) This plague likely (no significant evidence to the contrary) started in China.
Fact #04) The plague has spread around the world. There is nowhere to run. (Personally owned NBC filtered bunkers not included.)
Fact #05) We do not know the mortality rate of the plague. Numbers, guesses, models keep changing. Not enough reliable data.
Fact #06) There is no vaccine. Coronaviruss' have been extremely difficult to make a vaccine for. There is none for SARS.
Fact #07) We truly do not know how many people have had it. We may not know for many years. Tests are not reliable.
Fact #08) All states and federal government have ordered, to greater and lesser degrees, the closing of businesses and gatherings in order to reduce the risk of spreading the plague.
Fact #09) We do not know if the lockdowns have helped. They probably did, but we cannot prove it.
Fact #10) Each day the businesses are closed more risk economic ruin by being unable to pay bills. This includes hospitals that cannot perform and profit from elective treatments for patients.
Fact #11) These lockdowns cannot continue forever. They will end sooner or later.
With the above in mind along with a few more facts not thrown in I believe we must end the lockdowns immediately. This WILL kill some people. Some people will die due to increased spread of the plague. I fully acknowledge this and don't try to hide from it.
However, there will be many deaths from a damaged economy. The more damaged it is, the more lives lost. I heard a professor or doctor refer to a study that says that for every $100,000,000 damage damage done to the economy it kills someone indirectly. This means that for every $1 billion lost ten (10) people will die. For every $1 trillion lost to our national economy 10,000 people will die!
No matter what we do people will die from one cause or another. However, in 2017 - 2018 about 61,000 Americans died from the flu, a disease for which we already have a vaccine and they still died. Yet nothing was closed then, and no panic set in. Schools remained open, ballgames continued, etc. So, Fact #12) We ARE willing to let people die and continue our lives. We have already done it. If you are reading this and did not bunker down in 2017-2018 you ignored the death and destruction in order to eat in at your favorite restaurant. I did too. 43,000 have died this flu season (averaged number from CDC.) 2018 - 2019 was a good year with only 34,000 deaths, from the flu. So in the last three (3) years 138,000 have died from the flu and we didn't close anything.
Damage to the economy will have ripple effects the likes of which we cannot predict. Just in the last week oil prices dropped to $(-40) a barrel. That's right, they would PAY YOU $40 to take a barrel of oil. Very few people saw that one coming. This is one of those whacky things that is unpredictable. There will be others. As these events pile on top of one another there will be a tipping point that will drag everything down, and by the time we reach it we may not be able to stop it. The deaths caused by that will be significant. Those deaths ARE avoidable!
By reopening now we can save lives in the long run. More people will catch the plague, but most won't even know it. Once they catch it they are more than likely immune. This is the pattern with other coronavirus experiences. This will contribute to a herd immunity that will protect lives down the road.
Personal opinion that more lives will be lost to massive economic disaster than to current plague threat. Solution: open up now, ride the tiger, and come out stronger than before.
Regards,
Doug
Facts. Yes, I like to use facts.
Fact #01) Coronavirus (AKA Covid-19) does exist. (Hereafter referred to as "the plague".)
Fact #02) The plague is deadly. It can kill people. People have died from the plague.
Fact #03) This plague likely (no significant evidence to the contrary) started in China.
Fact #04) The plague has spread around the world. There is nowhere to run. (Personally owned NBC filtered bunkers not included.)
Fact #05) We do not know the mortality rate of the plague. Numbers, guesses, models keep changing. Not enough reliable data.
Fact #06) There is no vaccine. Coronaviruss' have been extremely difficult to make a vaccine for. There is none for SARS.
Fact #07) We truly do not know how many people have had it. We may not know for many years. Tests are not reliable.
Fact #08) All states and federal government have ordered, to greater and lesser degrees, the closing of businesses and gatherings in order to reduce the risk of spreading the plague.
Fact #09) We do not know if the lockdowns have helped. They probably did, but we cannot prove it.
Fact #10) Each day the businesses are closed more risk economic ruin by being unable to pay bills. This includes hospitals that cannot perform and profit from elective treatments for patients.
Fact #11) These lockdowns cannot continue forever. They will end sooner or later.
With the above in mind along with a few more facts not thrown in I believe we must end the lockdowns immediately. This WILL kill some people. Some people will die due to increased spread of the plague. I fully acknowledge this and don't try to hide from it.
However, there will be many deaths from a damaged economy. The more damaged it is, the more lives lost. I heard a professor or doctor refer to a study that says that for every $100,000,000 damage damage done to the economy it kills someone indirectly. This means that for every $1 billion lost ten (10) people will die. For every $1 trillion lost to our national economy 10,000 people will die!
No matter what we do people will die from one cause or another. However, in 2017 - 2018 about 61,000 Americans died from the flu, a disease for which we already have a vaccine and they still died. Yet nothing was closed then, and no panic set in. Schools remained open, ballgames continued, etc. So, Fact #12) We ARE willing to let people die and continue our lives. We have already done it. If you are reading this and did not bunker down in 2017-2018 you ignored the death and destruction in order to eat in at your favorite restaurant. I did too. 43,000 have died this flu season (averaged number from CDC.) 2018 - 2019 was a good year with only 34,000 deaths, from the flu. So in the last three (3) years 138,000 have died from the flu and we didn't close anything.
Damage to the economy will have ripple effects the likes of which we cannot predict. Just in the last week oil prices dropped to $(-40) a barrel. That's right, they would PAY YOU $40 to take a barrel of oil. Very few people saw that one coming. This is one of those whacky things that is unpredictable. There will be others. As these events pile on top of one another there will be a tipping point that will drag everything down, and by the time we reach it we may not be able to stop it. The deaths caused by that will be significant. Those deaths ARE avoidable!
By reopening now we can save lives in the long run. More people will catch the plague, but most won't even know it. Once they catch it they are more than likely immune. This is the pattern with other coronavirus experiences. This will contribute to a herd immunity that will protect lives down the road.
Personal opinion that more lives will be lost to massive economic disaster than to current plague threat. Solution: open up now, ride the tiger, and come out stronger than before.
Regards,
Doug
There may be a way to quantify the downside risk of opening up.
Available metrics say there have been ~5M tests and we're just shy of 1M cases. We know the actual numbers are much higher between the asymptomatic and the presumptives that were just told to say home. Let's intentionally be liberal with those numbers, use a 20x multiplier and say there have been 20M exposed/infected. (For every 1 person counted as a positive there are actually 20 people out there who are positive.) That 20M is 1/15th of the US population.
We currently have around 50k deaths. That's a .25% mortality rate using a 20M exposed number. (Which, by the way, is roughly equivalent to earlier speculation on INGO.)
Let's say another 200M people (roughly 2/3 of the US population) is still to be exposed to this. That's still 500k deaths. Half a million dead people that we really need to make sure don't die in a brief amount of time. Those people might die anyway within the timeframe of this pandemic. (Of course, they'll die at some point.)
But, there's a big difference between 500k people dead in 6 months or 2 years.
I'm not advocating with this.
Well, I would still advocate a very localized approach to re-opening. Cass County doesn't have the same infrastructure stressors as Lake County.
But, when we talk about the pace of re-opening, these are the things to keep in mind.
[As an aside, I have no pride of authorship in the math. If I messed up, it would not be the first time. And, if someone wants to run different numbers, that's cool. I'm just trying to be fairly speculative about this. I tried a couple different permutations, and it is still a staggering number. Even if you use a 30x multiplier for current exposed, that's still 340k deaths for 200M exposed over time.]
Available metrics say there have been ~5M tests and we're just shy of 1M cases. We know the actual numbers are much higher between the asymptomatic and the presumptives that were just told to say home. Let's intentionally be liberal with those numbers, use a 20x multiplier and say there have been 20M exposed/infected. (For every 1 person counted as a positive there are actually 20 people out there who are positive.) That 20M is 1/15th of the US population.
We currently have around 50k deaths. That's a .25% mortality rate using a 20M exposed number. (Which, by the way, is roughly equivalent to earlier speculation on INGO.)
Let's say another 200M people (roughly 2/3 of the US population) is still to be exposed to this. That's still 500k deaths. Half a million dead people that we really need to make sure don't die in a brief amount of time. Those people might die anyway within the timeframe of this pandemic. (Of course, they'll die at some point.)
But, there's a big difference between 500k people dead in 6 months or 2 years.
I'm not advocating with this.
Well, I would still advocate a very localized approach to re-opening. Cass County doesn't have the same infrastructure stressors as Lake County.
But, when we talk about the pace of re-opening, these are the things to keep in mind.
[As an aside, I have no pride of authorship in the math. If I messed up, it would not be the first time. And, if someone wants to run different numbers, that's cool. I'm just trying to be fairly speculative about this. I tried a couple different permutations, and it is still a staggering number. Even if you use a 30x multiplier for current exposed, that's still 340k deaths for 200M exposed over time.]
There may be a way to quantify the downside risk of opening up.
Available metrics say there have been ~5M tests and we're just shy of 1M cases. We know the actual numbers are much higher between the asymptomatic and the presumptives that were just told to say home. Let's intentionally be liberal with those numbers, use a 20x multiplier and say there have been 20M exposed/infected. (For every 1 person counted as a positive there are actually 20 people out there who are positive.) That 20M is 1/15th of the US population.
We currently have around 50k deaths. That's a .25% mortality rate using a 20M exposed number. (Which, by the way, is roughly equivalent to earlier speculation on INGO.)
Let's say another 200M people (roughly 2/3 of the US population) is still to be exposed to this. That's still 500k deaths. Half a million dead people that we really need to make sure don't die in a brief amount of time. Those people might die anyway within the timeframe of this pandemic. (Of course, they'll die at some point.)
But, there's a big difference between 500k people dead in 6 months or 2 years.
I'm not advocating with this.
Well, I would still advocate a very localized approach to re-opening. Cass County doesn't have the same infrastructure stressors as Lake County.
But, when we talk about the pace of re-opening, these are the things to keep in mind.
[As an aside, I have no pride of authorship in the math. If I messed up, it would not be the first time. And, if someone wants to run different numbers, that's cool. I'm just trying to be fairly speculative about this. I tried a couple different permutations, and it is still a staggering number. Even if you use a 30x multiplier for current exposed, that's still 340k deaths for 200M exposed over time.]
CampingJosh
Master
- Dec 16, 2010
- 3,298
- 99
It makes for a pay bump for a lot of people. I think the "remedy" is a big cause to the massive unemployment we're seeing.
In only 13 states does unemployment still pay less, on average, than 100% of what the person was making when they were working. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...employment-benefits-stimulus-coronavirus.html
A slow reopening makes a lot of sense. By slow, I mean things like this:
- allow "nonessential" businesses to reopen provided they can comply with social distancing, for instance, in the retail realms, limiting the number of people in stores, mandatory mask use. As for manufacturing, they can reopen with reasonable precautions. No, it will not prevent the spread, but it reduces risk and thereby slows the spread.
- allow the reopening of things like museums, aquariums, zoos, movie theaters, etc.- same precautions.
- Everyone still washes and washes and washes.
- Sorry restaurants, in the local business realm, they will remain closed until more information is gained about the effects of the soft reopening. Provided that the level of infections remain manageable, they cam reopen for seated service, but with a drastically reduced seating capacity, initially. Servers, chefs and cooks will be masked. Again, once more information is in, the preventative measures can be reduced over time.
- As for concerts, on-stage entertainment, sporting events with a live audience, just about the last things to reopen.
- all of this should be based upon local (perhaps county level) conditions.
- allow "nonessential" businesses to reopen provided they can comply with social distancing, for instance, in the retail realms, limiting the number of people in stores, mandatory mask use. As for manufacturing, they can reopen with reasonable precautions. No, it will not prevent the spread, but it reduces risk and thereby slows the spread.
- allow the reopening of things like museums, aquariums, zoos, movie theaters, etc.- same precautions.
- Everyone still washes and washes and washes.
- Sorry restaurants, in the local business realm, they will remain closed until more information is gained about the effects of the soft reopening. Provided that the level of infections remain manageable, they cam reopen for seated service, but with a drastically reduced seating capacity, initially. Servers, chefs and cooks will be masked. Again, once more information is in, the preventative measures can be reduced over time.
- As for concerts, on-stage entertainment, sporting events with a live audience, just about the last things to reopen.
- all of this should be based upon local (perhaps county level) conditions.
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Interesting thought exercise.
With SIP, the spread is slowing, but not stopping. There continue to be new infections and deaths among people who's only exposure has been during the SIP. There is an argument to be made that the SIP is slowing but not stopping the spread.
Therefore, any dilution of the current SIP can only operate to increase the spread.
To put it another way, is there an empirical or logical reason to deduce that we can actually slow the spread with fewer SIP restrictions?
It seems to me the real question is by what factor do we want to increase the spread and among what demographics.
I agree. The spread will increase, but as you have noted, it will continue to spread nonetheless. If we are able to keep the spread manageable, and by that I mean, with sufficient medical resources to respond to the most serious cases, then that level of spread is "acceptable" in my mind.
Don't go to work with a fever. Employers will need to ensure that some form of compensation is paid to those who are febrile/coughing/etc. Better to keep the workplace as free of contamination as possible from people who really don't give a damn about others....and they are out there.
Wash your hands. Cough into your sleeve. Keep your distance. Don't shake hands. Don't get close enough for a fist bump.
Be courteous. Don't leave a trail of debris behind every step you take.
Wash your hands again.
Wash your hands. Cough into your sleeve. Keep your distance. Don't shake hands. Don't get close enough for a fist bump.
Be courteous. Don't leave a trail of debris behind every step you take.
Wash your hands again.
I have no idea. This is why each new "loosening" should be phased in, with at least 2 week increments.
However, while the infection continues to spread, I think it would be a mistake to assume that everyone is complying with the rules. Is the continued spread a product of SIP not being adequate, or with inadequate compliance? If the latter, there is no real way to increase compliance and with some reopening, the new infection rate will be increased less than it would have if everyone was compliant (because people are already operating in a "reopened" fashion).
Also, if we had a better idea of the conditions under which new infections are occurring with SIP, that would be helpful. For instance (and I heave a big sigh even mentioning this) I get the news from Chicago here. While I have not kept abreast of all of the numbers, it seems like Chicago is not yet seeing a significant decrease in new cases and deaths. However, I keep hearing about how the disease disproportionately effects lower socio-economic classes (I will leave race completely out of this). Some of the reasons are obvious- population density, use of public transportation, inability to access home-delivery rather than going to stores, etc.- however, things like apathy, refusal or inability to follow rules/recommendations, have a strong positive correlation with being in a lower socio-economic class. All of these things contribute to continued spread even with a SIP order in effect....because of a lack of compliance.
Of course, there is also the problem with a 14 days period when people may be getting infected and many asymptomatic people. So we have been under a SIP order for over a month. Second and third "generations" of spread are still going on from pre-SIP exposure.
As an aside, up here is combination suburban/rural Porter County, we have 217 cases, 15 in the hospital and 6 deaths. There were about 40 of which were in the last week....and that sounds like the problem is out of control even under SIP...until you understand that almost all of those "new" cases are from the jail and that none of the jail cases is in the hospital. Again, it is still spreading, but not as fast and where it is still spreading is pretty important.
That one is not a fact. There is a vaccine for SARS-CoV-1. I predict there will be one for SARS-CoV-2 as well.
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...the level of self-control I am exercising at this moment..........
...but laying my rant-tastic thoughts about this aside, there are still daycare centers open.
Not with you.
I'll just say this- I know plenty of people, most of which are of very modest means, who well before this mess, prioritized being home with their children. Seems like a good opportunity to reevaluate...but that's really a discussion for another time and context.
But, you're implying PARENTS should take responsibility for raising their children. The modern, progressive viewpoint is that children are the property of and responsibility of the State.
Lest any doubt exist, I stand with you.
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