Coronovirus III

[smokingman]

I think everybody can get on board with this concise and explicit summary of the issue.

[video=youtube;wVs5AyjzwRM]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wVs5AyjzwRM&feature=youtu.be[/video]

I posted that video last night in this thread(but from a twitter feed). It sums up our situation fairly well.

 

[hoosierdoc]

I'm confused. Do we base policy on anecdotal evidence or not? Honestly, this meme it utterly ridiculous.

yes, it's utterly ridiculous

they are terrified and many could not care less about ANY downstream effect of unlimited lock down if it means they have a smaller risk of catching it

 

[jamil]

Hi Bug!



I'll get on board with this idea. Well, not the shoddy thinking, but that the SIP/get back to work isn't following political lines as much as some think.

There's a sane realm. And then there's the insane realm. The extreame "SIP forever" and the "open it all up right ***damn now" folks do tend to split across those lines. And it's not a majority. Most people are in that sane realm of thinking, many we should SIP a little longer, some think we should start opening things up sooner. And I think their politics are all over the place, especially the SIP side. But, if you have an extreme view of it, you're probably extreme in your politics too.

 

[jamil]

A lot of this seems to be going political.

Wearing or not wearing a mask seems political now. Matters not whether the mask is doing what it's expected to do or not.

Or worse yet in my experience, whether most mask wearing individuals are causing more potential spread because they just won't leave the mask alone. Often the masks cause hand to face that wouldn't be there otherwise.

Let alone what happens when their phone rings, when masked...

If you don't wear a mask, you don't care about....the children!

If you do wear a mask, well, I don't really see a lot of politicization of that other than maybe more social acceptance.

I was out and about yesterday and saw some old dude walking to his truck in a parking lot. He had a full beard and was wearing what looked like a surgical type mask really high on his face. Almost covering his eyes. And the bottom part of his mask was just under his lower lip. Probably it was a little better than not wearing one at all, but I'd bet it's not as effective is it could have been. Whether wearing the mask that way gave him any better social acceptance for checking off the "mask" box I don't know.

 

[jamil]

I think everybody can get on board with this concise and explicit summary of the issue.

[video=youtube;wVs5AyjzwRM]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wVs5AyjzwRM&feature=youtu.be[/video]

That was probably one of the best videos I've seen on the subject. Thanks for posting.

 

[BugI02]

Not quite, and maybe Jamil's post explains it better. There are definitely two extremes, and then there are more rational positions. I find it a little weird that there even are positions to be taken on it, and we can't just discuss and agree on what we're seeing... instead fighting over each other's information and sources for some reason... because we don't like what we're reading? That's what I'm curious about... why fight against information? But maybe you nailed it here...

[A couple of small nits I'll pick at in an otherwise excellent post. As a scientist, the problem I have with information is what is available is awful and as such advocating for a particular course of action is usually lacking in believable data. I certainly don't advocate doing nothing, but extraordinary claims require extraordinary data. A lot of the presented numbers I perceive as of a climate change/green new deal level of confidence interval. Part of the problem is if you review the epidemiological profile of WuVid 19, and ignore the more deleterious nature of its outcomes, it closely matches that of the seasonal flu. Your chances of getting a bad case seem roughly analagous, the penalty is just harsher. That is what I think of when I hear 'it's just like the flu']

I think I did consider this when I was thinking of some of the people here that want to downplay it... Perhaps it's a libertarian mindset that wants to keep it mild in order to prevent more government intrusion into our rights/lives? I can get that, I tend to do the same when it comes to things that matter to me... guns, games, etc...




I don't... "politics" probably not the right word, since even on "the right" here on INGO, there are some big gaps in agreement. "Politics" was probably a bad label to use in my initial question, but I expect some with strong views on the topic here have those views because it could benefit their party of choice.

[Some of the way you phrase the viewpoints smacks a bit of right and wrong. It is perfectly all right and expected to have a personal opinion, whether it's right remains to be seen. Proceeding from the initial assumption that you know which numbers are to be believed will get the kind of pushback you've pointed out]

Like I said above, I just find it so weird to argue about something that should be pretty black-and-white as to what's going on. As far as what we should be doing, as you say... the "never open" sorts of positions... that's not 100% what I was getting at.

I'm talking about a person posting a report of a death count or rise in infections, and being argued with over it as though it just didn't happen. Or people that keep comparing the deaths to other things that also cause death for some reason. Maybe they want to temper the hype... I get that... but this also is a big deal, and that can't be denied. I don't know anyone that has died to the flu. I do know people that have gotten, and died, from this virus.

[Conversely, no one among my extended circle of friends and aquaintances has had this (or if they have, they didn't know it) and certainly no one knows anyone who died from this. We are all beyond 60 and perhaps we were early adopters of caution and prophylactic interventions, but using my personal experience to color the data is no more (or less) valid than you doing so. If it is as bad as some make it out, we should know some who have been hospitalized - these people are spread all over the country. It is the disparity in real world experience that causes me to be skeptical of the numbers and the projections]

I think Trump's doing fine handling it. I'm looking forward to things getting back to semi-normal. I'm very against keeping things closed, and easing back into having people go to work. My office will likely be slowly bringing people in, little by little. I'm glad I can work from home with relative ease, and lucky to have that option. I know not everyone does... and that must be very difficult to deal with.

If the reports about cytokine storms end up being true, that's pretty serious. I know we don't know everything right now, and I'm sure we'll know more after this all blows over... but I see nothing wrong with being overly, but reasonably, cautious. When someone posts something, I just want to understand why anyone would feel inclined to seek out reasons that person may be wrong. What does it hurt, or change? Maybe conflicting reports will come out, so let's share those with each other so we can all stay on the same page... and obviously ignoring stories that have a bias/angle (Pro-China propaganda is rampant right now)

OK. I'm rambling. I'm pessimistic about how much freedom/privacy we're going to lose in the wake of this.

Good post. I think the very forces that bias you to feel your synthesis of available information is the correct one moves in other people also. Those people may need to recht haben to a greater or lesser degree than you, and thus be motivated to a variable degree to argue about the figures. I see the split as more along the axis of accuracy rather than denial

 

[foszoe]

I am with Chip on this but I would piggy back with I am not used to hearing that the flu causes long term damage to lungs etc even after recovery like I hear with COVID. If that happens to the younger more healthy crowd is a long term economic health care burden.

I think, when all data are in, COVID-19 will prove to be essentially like influenza in terms of overall spread and mortality.

That said - and as I have always maintained - COVID-19 is very much unlike influenza in terms of severity and targets/at-risk demographics.

I believe those two points get conflated all too easily.

 

[nonobaddog]

Apparently it is more fun to talk about the extreme positions of lock down vs open for business (or even more extreme - sensory deprivation vs orgy) but everybody I know is not taking either extreme end of the spectrum and lives more toward the reasonable ground like how much to open up and when.

 

[BugI02]

https://sd11.senate.ca.gov/

Weiner is pushing things like sexless restrooms in public schools.
Transexual boys on girls basketball teams and generally doing away with anything related to the male and female gender.

Understood. He's also openly gay. Are we sure Susan Wiener is married to him? I couldn't find any information about it in the time I'm willing to devote to it, they may be some sort of Democratic power couple of convenience or things may have changed quite a bit for at least one of them since they got married. I'm not sure that means I should completely disbelieve a source because his wife is on the masthead

Edit:She also spells her last name 'Weiner' while he spells his 'Wiener'

 

[Alpo]

This is why cosmology is so much more rewarding than biology.

1) No flat earthers. ....but there are string theorists, which might be equivalent from a certain point of view.

2) Anton Petrov will call you a "wonderful person"

3) It is highly unlikely that cosmology will kill you.

 

[Dead Duck]

Nobody is talking about the brain barrier thing or being sterile then. It's all good?

 

[smokingman]

Understood. He's also openly gay. Are we sure Susan Wiener is married to him? I couldn't find any information about it in the time I'm willing to devote to it, they may be some sort of Democratic power couple of convenience or things may have changed quite a bit for at least one of them since they got married. I'm not sure that means I should completely disbelieve a source because his wife is on the masthead

Edit:She also spells her last name 'Weiner' while he spells his 'Wiener'

I followed a link from one of her profiles(LinkedIn I think). I pulled up her political donations as well. He is close to the only one she has ever donated to.
Honestly now I am not sure they are even married. I just did a 10 minute check and followed some links. The political donations though are public records and correct,she has donated to his campaign multiple times.

 

[smokingman]

Nobody is talking about the brain barrier thing or being sterile then. It's all good?

I did mention the bone marrow thing a few days ago(similar to myelofibrosis in appearance and symptoms) .

I did not feel the need to remind everyone this can cause sterility or cerebral edema.

I tried to mention the blood clotting thing today as well, but not sure it was very well accepted. I am certain the 21% death rate in the NYC clinical case study of 2700 did not go over well(posted it twice today,once for the very early people and once again later in the day).`

I will post the paper again(posted it in one of the other threads back on the 15th I think). I posted a CNN article about it earlier, of course having read the paper it made sense to me. On here though I was again called alarmist ect. I blocked the person and moved on.
https://www.thrombosisresearch.com/article/S0049-3848(20)30120-1/pdf

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/22/health/strokes-coronavirus-young-adults/index.html

 

[MCgrease08]

Illinois Gov. Pritzker extends stay-at-home order through end of May

Pritzker also announced that the state is projected to see a peak or plateau of deaths per day from coronavirus in late April and early May, but noted that if the stay-at-home order were lifted this week, the model “anticipates a second wave of the outbreak in Illinois starting in May, which would claim tens of thousands of lives and greatly exceed the state’s hospital capacity.”

I feel like we've heard this before. I do think the SIP orders have helped to mitigate the spread and flatten the curve to some degree, but it's getting harder and harder to buy into these predictions of "tens of thousands" of deaths.

“If the stay-at-home order were lifted this week, death rates and hospitalizations would start rising sharply by the middle of May,” the release from Pritzker’s office stated. “It’s projected that the peak death rate and peak resource needs would be almost as high as if there were never any mitigation measures put in place. Over the course of the current outbreak, the model estimates there would be 5 to 10 times more deaths than we would see if we continued mitigation.”

So what happens when we reach the end of May? Won't this dire prediction still hold true, or will the 'Rona have magically evaporated by then?

I hope this doesn't give Holcomb any incentive to do the same, but I suspect it will.

 

[Goodcat]

I am personally get sick of the stay at home order. I am an essentially worker, so I’ve primarily been out and about, but we’ve got to get the economy open again to survive.

 

[DoggyDaddy]

This is why cosmology is so much more rewarding than biology.

1) No flat earthers. ....but there are string theorists, which might be equivalent from a certain point of view.

2) Anton Petrov will call you a "wonderful person"

3) It is highly unlikely that cosmology will kill you.

And hairdressers can make a decent living too.

 

[OurDee]

I hope Holcomb opens us back up.

 

[GodFearinGunTotin]

From the Worldometers website.

New York State Governor Cuomo said that preliminary findings from an antibody study conducted on 3,000 people at grocery stores across New York State found a 13.9% had coronavirus antibodies, suggesting a 13.9% actual infection rate statewide (21.2% in New York City), which translates to an estimate of about 2,700,000 actual cases in New York State (10 times more than the about 270,000 cases that have been detected and reported officially). Governor Cuomo acknowledged that the official count reported by New York State (which still is not including probable deaths as recommended by the new CDC guidelines) of about 15,500 deaths is "not accurate" as it doesn't account for stay at home deaths. Based on Worldometer's count (which includes probable deaths reported by New York City) of about 21,000 deaths and the 2,700,000 case estimate from the new antibody study, the actual case fatality rate in New York State could be at around 0.78% [source]

 

[Twangbanger]

yes, it's utterly ridiculous

they are terrified and many could not care less about ANY downstream effect of unlimited lock down if it means they have a smaller risk of catching it

My wife is a health care worker, and is surrounded by people like you describe. It's all she hears. Even "experts" in the field are subject to a bias. They are seeing the world from their own little corner.

It doesn't matter what industry you're in. Everyone has their echo chamber. If you're a truck driver, or immigration lawyer or whatever, you're an "expert" on something. But you're also biased toward that world-view. What you say is authoritative. But it's not necessarily the last word on the subject. Especially when we're talking about government policies that remove people's ability to make risk/reward decisions for themselves.

What I see are a whole lot of people who have been getting "Wellness" checkups annually for years and years, being told they need to lose weight, being told they need to get things under control - and ignoring it. The consequences of that could be "put off" until later. It didn't seem immediate. Now, with COVID - it seems immediate to them. And they have been thrust into a scary new reality. That is their "echo chamber." And some of the appeal of "Shelter in Place," at least to some of these people, is that currently, the rest of the world has to share some of the trappings of that reality _with_ them. I hear strains of that in the "We're All In This Together" mantra. It is reminiscent of "Boston Strong," or the way we were preached-to in the 1980s when the "AIDS Epidemic" first hit. I get it. It's a show of solidarity. ​

We'd all be safer if we just stayed home. But, again...the idea behind social distancing was never to eliminate all deaths. It was to prevent the health system from being overwhelmed. That has been achieved, everywhere in America except possibly NYC. The problem is that the averge fat, handful-of-diseases American got the wrong idea. They concluded that the objective was to "stop death."

We cannot be _certain_ a vaccine will even be developed. I think people may be counting their chickens too soon.

 

[Route 45]

From the Worldometers website.

I saw that on Fox as well. Interesting.

https://www.foxnews.com/us/new-york-antibody-study-early-results