Coronavirus

[Phase2]

I saw this statement by Chinese in January when they first made it. At the time, there were only a few hundred cases in China and some outside of Wuhan. It didn't make sense then and it doesn't now. They were also saying that the disease originated in a wet (live animal) market. Were they saying that all of those hundreds were exposed to the exact same live animal(s) in Wuhan? How else would it spread to hundreds of people except by human-to-human transfer?

 

[shootersix]

if you saw my post from earlier in the week, my wife works in a nursing/rehab home, yesterday a hospital sent them a elderly patient that had a temp of 101!, if my wifes temp is over 99, she cant enter the building!

i reiterated that they told her to pack a bag and be prepared to be locked in if anyone tests positive for corona/covid 19, she said she was going to this morning before work, I left before she did, so I hope she did

 

[maxwelhse]

Well, what do we value more, our economy or our life?
When an individual is faced with self preservation vs inconvenience, humans will generally choose self preservation. Not always, but usually. When faced with the choice of their own self preservation vs someone else's inconvenience, well, let's just say the economies screwed.

If 1% of our population gets this, and the mortality rate really is as high as 5%, that's 182,500 dead and virtually all deaths have been people that were on the way to the exit already... If things keep up the way we're going, we're going to have at least half that number dead or headed to prison from straight up poverty and millions more might wish they were, with most of those in my scenario being otherwise capable working people that used to be looking forward to a comfortable life. That's ignoring the millions more people in future generations effected by dropping nukes on the fire that was already out of control .gov spending.

So... My opinion is that the response has been far in excess of what is reasonable and is already paving the way to much worse problems for everyone as opposed to under 200,000 people. It seems the cure is worse than the disease, IMO, but time will tell. This could all blow over in 2 weeks and everything is fine again, or it could be a depression that will last a decade.

 

[Ballstater98]

The governor and other state officials will conduct a COVID-19 briefing today at 1:30 p.m. Central Time (2:30pm Eastern TIme) in the south atrium of the Indiana Statehouse with the latest updates on testing and cases.

 

[SheepDog4Life]

Yeah, thanks for that, qwerty. And thanks for your personal background.


I suck at math, but data and statistics are fascinating to me.


Yesterday was a bad day. Daily deaths doubled in 2 days (almost 1). Total death doubling was basically 2 days.


Still very early in the data, but this isn't promising. It would be great if there was a source for how many of the total cases are hospitalized.

Large population centers are going to drive these numbers, and NY/NYC leadership in particular has been inept.


Hope I'm wrong, but foreseeing an "Italy on steroids" coming out of NYC over the next 2-4 weeks.

 

[femurphy77]

I saw this statement by Chinese in January when they first made it. At the time, there were only a few hundred cases in China and some outside of Wuhan. It didn't make sense then and it doesn't now. They were also saying that the disease originated in a wet (live animal) market. Were they saying that all of those hundreds were exposed to the exact same live animal(s) in Wuhan? How else would it spread to hundreds of people except by human-to-human transfer?

 

[Phase2]

Wow. This is very surprising. Not entirely sure what it means. I guess the populace has been agitated enough over this to finally get the Chinese authorities to bend.

China Apologizes To Wife Of Whistleblower Doctor Who Died After Contracting Coronavirus

A bit of background. Dr. Li first started warning the public on social media about a potential new virus outbreak in Wuhan in December- very early on. He was forced to apologize by the Chinese govt for "disrupting social order" rather than taken seriously. Not long after, he ended up contracting the Wuhan coronavirus and died.

Dr Li - who warned the public of a potential "SARS-like" disease in December 2019 - was questioned by local health authority, and warned:

"We solemnly warn you: If you keep being stubborn, with such impertinence, and continue this illegal activity, you will be brought to justice - is that understood?"

Dr, Li was later summoned by Wuhan police to sign a reprimand letter in which he was accused of "spreading rumors online" and "severely disrupting social order."

 

[maxwelhse]

Wow. This is very surprising. Not entirely sure what it means. I guess the populace has been agitated enough over this to finally get the Chinese authorities to bend.

China Apologizes To Wife Of Whistleblower Doctor Who Died After Contracting Coronavirus

A bit of background. Dr. Li first started warning the public on social media about a potential new virus outbreak in Wuhan in December- very early on. He was forced to apologize by the Chinese govt for "disrupting social order" rather than taken seriously. Not long after, he ended up contracting the Wuhan coronavirus and died.

The Chinese government also hooked his dead body back up to life support to go "See... He's fine!" after the word first broke.

We should have absolutely nothing to do with China. Nothing.

 

[T.Lex]

So... My opinion is that the response has been far in excess of what is reasonable and is already paving the way to much worse problems for everyone as opposed to under 200,000 people. It seems the cure is worse than the disease, IMO, but time will tell. This could all blow over in 2 weeks and everything is fine again, or it could be a depression that will last a decade.

That's basically where I was a week ago.

I'm incrementally closer to smokingman's position at this point. Not anywhere close to all the way there, but... inching that direction.

A week ago, colleges (that my kids go to) started closing. That's how I mark the "significant measures" that were taken. This virus can take about a week or 2 to manifest. So, we're halfway through (timewise) the initial stage of remedial measures. The people dying now were exposed (most likely) before those significant measures. So the exponential increase is kinda "legacy" from before those measures. But, it shows what the trend would continue to be in the absence of those measures.

Let's play that out over the next 10 days, using 2-day doubling for total dead.
3/18 - 150
3/20 - 300
3/22 - 600
3/24 - 1200
3/26 - 2400
3/28 - 4800

Those are some pretty big numbers in short period of time. Another week or so and you'd surpass the annual flu numbers in about a month of activity.

The good news is that the if the significant measures can keep the numbers below those, then that's kinda a "win."

 

[churchmouse]

The Chinese government also hooked his dead body back up to life support to go "See... He's fine!" after the word first broke.

We should have absolutely nothing to do with China. Nothing.

I am really thinking we have no alias past the funds we send offshore to purchase friendships. Kind of like that one dancer you used to date. She was loyal as heck until the money stopped.

 

[SheepDog4Life]

Wow. This is very surprising. Not entirely sure what it means. I guess the populace has been agitated enough over this to finally get the Chinese authorities to bend.

China Apologizes To Wife Of Whistleblower Doctor Who Died After Contracting Coronavirus

A bit of background. Dr. Li first started warning the public on social media about a potential new virus outbreak in Wuhan in December- very early on. He was forced to apologize by the Chinese govt for "disrupting social order" rather than taken seriously. Not long after, he ended up contracting the Wuhan coronavirus and died.

I didn't see any apology there... just the local police confessing that they did the "cover-up" by mis-understanding the laws, etc. And they'll do better in the future.

Likely the "responsible parties" have been punished... in other words, no body that knows where the orders came from will be able to talk. Literally.

CYA by Chi-com higher-ups that they didn't do a cover-up, the local police did. Yeah, right!

 

[Mark-DuCo]

First positive case in SW Indiana. In Evansville.

https://duboiscountyherald.com/b/de...4o_e1VS9ivKkbEpdJsz7t44ibCQJccrtOQg5274PKI0cg

 

[maxwelhse]

That's basically where I was a week ago.

I'm incrementally closer to smokingman's position at this point. Not anywhere close to all the way there, but... inching that direction.

A week ago, colleges (that my kids go to) started closing. That's how I mark the "significant measures" that were taken. This virus can take about a week or 2 to manifest. So, we're halfway through (timewise) the initial stage of remedial measures. The people dying now were exposed (most likely) before those significant measures. So the exponential increase is kinda "legacy" from before those measures. But, it shows what the trend would continue to be in the absence of those measures.

Let's play that out over the next 10 days, using 2-day doubling for total dead.
3/18 - 150
3/20 - 300
3/22 - 600
3/24 - 1200
3/26 - 2400
3/28 - 4800

Those are some pretty big numbers in short period of time. Another week or so and you'd surpass the annual flu numbers in about a month of activity.

The good news is that the if the significant measures can keep the numbers below those, then that's kinda a "win."

Without going back on a deep dive into the data (I'll let guys like SM handle that), my assumptions are based on the hot spots where pretty much nothing was done to control it. The Grand Princess had an infection rate of under 1% and I think one old man died. This could get worse as more time passes, of course, and we'll get more data from other worst case scenarios soon as there are currently like 5 or 6 stranded cruise ships just hanging out all over the world right now.

So... I'm presently of the opinion that the proper precautions for this were:

- "Hey, morons... Wash your F'n hands. Yes YOU!! Guy that walks right out of the stall and heads for the door! I'm going to PUBLICLY shame you for being so gross from here on out, you nasty SOB."
- If you are running a fever, stay home.
- You probably shouldn't congregate in public if you don't need to.

And the .gov should have absolutely not done a single thing about the stock market. IMO, that's actually our worst problem right now. Every single time they shaved points or did anything else, it dropped another 10%. You could watch this happen. The US government, and social media, created this panic.

BUT... I could be wrong about all of that and all of us could be dead next week. Let's hope not. But, if I die, I'll offer a "I was wrong" right now, just in case.

 

[ditcherman]

If 1% of our population gets this, and the mortality rate really is as high as 5%, that's 182,500 dead and virtually all deaths have been people that were on the way to the exit already... If things keep up the way we're going, we're going to have at least half that number dead or headed to prison from straight up poverty and millions more might wish they were, with most of those in my scenario being otherwise capable working people that used to be looking forward to a comfortable life. That's ignoring the millions more people in future generations effected by dropping nukes on the fire that was already out of control .gov spending.

So... My opinion is that the response has been far in excess of what is reasonable and is already paving the way to much worse problems for everyone as opposed to under 200,000 people. It seems the cure is worse than the disease, IMO, but time will tell. This could all blow over in 2 weeks and everything is fine again, or it could be a depression that will last a decade.

Using your numbers I absolutely agree, this is ridiculous, it’s just the bad flu. People on the way out, move along now.
BUT; I think its more accurate to use, just for arguments sake, 70% infection rate. Use wherever that’s not the point, use 1% mortality rate, not 5% which no one is arguing, and you have 2.3million deaths. That’s the perspective I wrote that from.

 

[maxwelhse]

I am really thinking we have no alias past the funds we send offshore to purchase friendships. Kind of like that one dancer you used to date. She was loyal as heck until the money stopped.

Except this stripper has been telling us that she outright hates us and would like to kill us, for about 70 years now...

I get it that Clinton's big idea here was that US money would just naturally lift them out of communism, but it didn't work and isn't going to. Time to move on to the next stripper.. I see lots of nice looking Eastern European chicks!

 

[SheepDog4Life]

First positive case in SW Indiana. In Evansville.

https://duboiscountyherald.com/b/de...4o_e1VS9ivKkbEpdJsz7t44ibCQJccrtOQg5274PKI0cg

Read elsewhere that local hospitals have numerous samples out, backlogged for the better part of a week, that did not meet the then very stringent state testing requirements.

Look for that number to jump significantly once the commercial testing backlog clears. Not just locally, but statewide.

It's been among us for awhile now.

 

[T.Lex]

My last post piqued my curiosity. There's enough public numbers, thanks to qwerty for making them accessible, to do some modeling.

Using a 1.5x daily death multiplier, starting with actual deaths as of 3/18, starting 3/19 and ending 4/6.

225
338
506
759
1,139
1,709
2,563
3,844
5,767
8,650
12,975
19,462
29,193
43,789
65,684
98,526
147,789
221,684
332,526

That's bad. Using 3/13 as the anchor date for the significant measures, and the daily death increase percentage average, the average projection numbers are "better" from 3/19 through 4/6 (about 1.4x).

212
300
424
600
849
1,201
1,698
2,402
3,397
4,805
6,795
9,611
13,593
19,226
27,192
38,459
54,395
76,933
108,811

 

[Keith_Indy]

if you saw my post from earlier in the week, my wife works in a nursing/rehab home, yesterday a hospital sent them a elderly patient that had a temp of 101!, if my wifes temp is over 99, she cant enter the building!

i reiterated that they told her to pack a bag and be prepared to be locked in if anyone tests positive for corona/covid 19, she said she was going to this morning before work, I left before she did, so I hope she did

She ought to keep her SHTF BAG in a trash bag. Lower risk of the bag becoming contaminated.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Whelp, this has finally hit home.

Amazon delayed a game I preordered a year ago.

Now I have to leave the house tomorrow morning and physically purchase it.

I can barely conceal the rage and fury I'm feeling right now.

Oh, and one co-worker's spouse has it apparently... but this... this is what impacts me the most. I took next week off for vacation to play this game.

 

[Keith_Indy]

My last post piqued my curiosity. There's enough public numbers, thanks to qwerty for making them accessible, to do some modeling.

Using a 1.5x daily death multiplier, starting with actual deaths as of 3/18, starting 3/19 and ending 4/6.

332,526

That's bad. Using 3/13 as the anchor date for the significant measures, and the daily death increase percentage average, the projection numbers are "better" from 3/19 through 4/6.

108,811

Yes, the more serious we take it, the more serious we can make a dent in that number.

Social distancing... go out do your business, be careful, wash your hands, don't touch your face, don't have avoidable physical contact.

Self-Isolation - they're saying high risk people are more at risk of getting serious cases of COVID19. I'm at risk, I going down to bare minimum contact, which has already been down for the last few months anyway.

Be Smart, Be Good, Be Safe