Coronavirus

[KellyinAvon]

Some places are low on masks. They are reducing requirements to just a surgical mask. Makes me nervous when recommendations change due to lack of supply.

Roger that, changing requirements to meet on-hand supply never comes out well.

 

[GodFearinGunTotin]

I hear that a bunch of car companies are going to make ventilators now.


So what kind of horsepower are we talking about here?
Or is it more like 0 to 60 in a heartbeat?

They're going all electric on their vehicles. Good thing is, if you already have a plug in hybrid or total electric vehicle, you'll be able to plug it in anywhere there's a charging station!

 

[Ark]

JP Morgan sees the next two quarters with negative GDP growth. In other words a depression,and a global one at that.
I may have mentioned this as a likely event back in early February.


[FONT=lucida_granderegular]As the virus spreads rapidly across the globe, we have also been rapidly adjusting our estimates of the impact on 1H20 growth. This week we have again lowered forecasts. For China this quarter and the rest of the world next quarter, these GDP declines represent the biggest quarterly contractions recorded over the past 50 years at least. These contractions will be sufficient to tip 2020 global GDP growth down 1.1% on a year average basis (0.5% 4Q/4Q). Of particular note (Table 1):[/FONT]

• China collapses this quarter. We have reduced 1Q20 China GDP growth to -40%q/q, saar. Economies closely tied to the China supply-chain (such as Korea and Taiwan) will directionally follow China’s growth path. Forecasts there have also been lowered.
• The US and Europe follows next. For the US and Western Europe, the COVID-19 shock will likely straddle the first two quarters of the year. The stall in activity in March is likely sufficient to tip both economies into contraction this quarter but the shock’s impact is expected to be concentrated next quarter, where both regions are expected to contract at a double-digit annualized pace. These outcomes are worse than were recorded during the global financial crisis or the European sovereign crisis.
• The EM is not immune. While the COVID-19 shock is moving more slowly through EM countries outside Asia, their vulnerability is increasing along a number of fronts. In addition to their heightened sensitivity to falling DM demand for manufactured goods and commodities, they are experiencing a significant tightening in financial conditions. Oil producers are experiencing concentrated terms-of-trade losses. Finally, their relatively weak public health

[FONT=lucida_granderegular]"If a normalization in activity from depressed levels takes hold midyear alongside building policy stimulus, the depth of the current downturn can be seen as a springboard for a strong snapback in growth. [/FONT]However, there is a significant risk that the virus outbreak persists and activity remains restricted for a longer time. In this environment, risks rise that the depth of the initial shock unleashes negative forces that magnify the hit to activity into 2H20. [FONT=lucida_granderegular]Notably, firms that had been hovering on the margins of viability pre-crisis may not have sufficient equity to justify even a subsidized extension of credit and may close. [/FONT]The longer the duration of the interruption to activity, the deeper into the population of firms likely closures will occur, and the greater the feedback into consumer incomes and expectations[FONT=lucida_granderegular]."

[/FONT]https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/jpmorgan-now-expects-global-depression-second-quarter

The writing was on the wall with this several weeks back when China started shutting down factories. The real ramifications haven't even begun to show up in the US yet. A scythe is about to cut through the manufacturing sector as the supply chain shortfalls bite and we literally can't assemble things because there are no parts. And that'll be on top of factories closed because workers have too much close contact.

Several million, maybe 10m+ Americans who got sent home from work are not going to be receiving a call welcoming them back after lockdown. Everyone's gonna enact workforce haircuts in the face of supply shortfalls and tanked demand that will last well into next year. And, oh yeah, this is happening with a Fed that already shot their load on interest rates and a government that is already running a trillion dollar annual deficit.

I wonder if we may end up in a position where the economic consequences of lockdown are so devastating that we lift the restrictions and simply accept the losses of life.

 

[GodFearinGunTotin]

At what point is the "cure" worse than the disease?

 

[Ziggidy]

I still believe in prayer. At a time when the world literally seems so devastated and there is no way out; remember prayer works.

If you don’t agree, no comments are needed.

I’m praying for all of us.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[maxwelhse]

Would love to... But only our most senior management team is staying home. They wouldn't want to cause a panic by sending the peons home too, despite the fact that I haven't even seen my boss in a week...

 

[COOPADUP]

I still believe in prayer. At a time when the world literally seems so devastated and there is no way out; remember prayer works.

If you don’t agree, no comments are needed.

I’m praying for all of us.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Thank you Ziggidy . You are a voice of reason here.

 

[qwerty]

Thank you for the data... too soon to be certain, but it appears that Italian new cases and deaths have plateau'ed approximately 1 week after nationwide lock down. Hopefully, over the next week or so, both will start trending down...

One thing to keep in mind for US folks looking at Italy... multi-generational households are somewhat more prevalent there, so if anyone in the household gets the virus, it presents a dire situation for the grandparents in the house.

Prayers for anyone with friends/family in Italy.

ETA: qwerty, kudos for tracking and posting the data... You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to qwerty again.

^^^ +100.

ETA:
For as helpful as that spreadsheet is, I can't help but think that qwerty shouldn't be the one compiling it. Nothing personal, but I'm getting more frustrated that the US .gov doesn't have a better current tracking page, at least updated hourly. The Johns Hopkins thing isn't bad for visualizing and general data, but it also isn't great for gleaning the data sets and then playing with them.

So, great job doing someone else's job, qwerty. (Unless you happen to be some sort of statistician with the CDC or WHO. Then it is your job.)

I have updated the spreadsheet with the latest numbers. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...F2nSBMG8kMCK6dQZXk8zxhBvXgyDgjgXJc_K7/pubhtml

Thank you for the kind words. Part of my employ and training has been in statistical and data analysis, so organizing data, looking at data, and growing to hate data (sometimes) is part of the job. Often, just re-organizing it is helpful and makes it easier to digest and to create a better projection of what really is, or what is going to happen.

I agree that the lack of information that should be going through a central clearinghouse, which in this case would be the WHO, but honestly they can not be trusted or provided an iota of credibility. As with most things, the .gov organizations (which yes, I work for, just locally though) lack the ability or talent to effectively collect, organize, and even post the data. Most jobs like that are provided to the business with the most lobbyist or connections. A perfect example was the Obamacare Website years ago, and even personally, our agency paid ten's of thousands of dollars for a new website which was disastrous, inefficient, difficult to maintain,slow, and was just a WordPress site that "company A" bought from someone else. The technical staff were never consulted or asked for input. The decision was made at the upper level. After about 6 months of trying to keep it operating effectively, we just built a new one using pure html/css/php which looked just like the WordPress one and no one has been the wiser.

 

[nra4ever]

Companies produce 3D printed ventilator valve for $1 and are threatened with lawsuit by manufacturer that sells them for $11,000


https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/17/21184308/coronavirus-italy-medical-3d-print-valves-treatments

 

[Wolfhound]

Companies produce 3D printed ventilator valve for $1 and are threatened with lawsuit by manufacturer that sells them for $11,000


https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/17/21184308/coronavirus-italy-medical-3d-print-valves-treatments

A similar story was posted earlier. The article above says the price reported (10K) is not correct and no direct threat of litigation occurred. Most of these valves run about 200 bucks from the OEM. That is an average because all models of vents are different. Assuming that is a funky expiratory valve.

If you don't believe me just run a Google search for expiratory valve.

 

[T.Lex]

I have updated the spreadsheet with the latest numbers. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...F2nSBMG8kMCK6dQZXk8zxhBvXgyDgjgXJc_K7/pubhtml

Yeah, thanks for that, qwerty. And thanks for your personal background.

I suck at math, but data and statistics are fascinating to me.

Yesterday was a bad day. Daily deaths doubled in 2 days (almost 1). Total death doubling was basically 2 days.

Still very early in the data, but this isn't promising. It would be great if there was a source for how many of the total cases are hospitalized.

 

[Dead Duck]

Far out.




'Gasoline hits 99 cents at Kentucky station, sells out'


https://www.foxnews.com/auto/gasoline-99-cents-kentucky

 

[worddoer]

There is talk that oil may possibly drop to $10 a barrel.

[video=youtube;yAg_fDOg4CA]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yAg_fDOg4CA[/video]

 

[raider600]

But according to trump, cases would be near zero! Don't panic, nothing to see here.

 

[T.Lex]

But according to trump, cases would be near zero! Don't panic, nothing to see here.

I think Trump is terrible, but I'm not even sure what that post means.

Not panicking is always good advice.

 

[Vigilant]

But according to trump, cases would be near zero! Don't panic, nothing to see here.

You know he invented this virus too don’t you? It was only supposed to affect brown people, and those with TDS, but like every thing Trump has ever done, it was wrong.

 

[jedi]

But according to trump, cases would be near zero! Don't panic, nothing to see here.

A leader of a nation is he suppose to tell you to panic?
Has any other leader said that?

 

[Ballstater98]

"Indiana health care providers are now prioritizing virus testing on those with a fever above 100.4; severe, lower respiratory symptoms; those in nursing homes or jails who have symptoms; and health care workers possibly exposed by COVID-19 and are exhibiting symptoms."

http://www.nwitimes.com/news/who-should-be-tested-for-covid--who-should-stay/article_d6340d37-5e4a-5f93-98d2-e1cd9ded4949.html#utm_source=nwitimes.com&utm_campaign=%2Fnewsletter-templates%2Fbreaking&utm_medium=PostUp&utm_content=e0f8c1dd8d48117bd21a86f1cfa7788135d0769f

 

[T.Lex]

A leader of a nation is he suppose to tell you to panic?
Has any other leader said that?

Those that do usually only get to say that 1 time. After that, they aren't the leader anymore.

 

[ditcherman]

The writing was on the wall with this several weeks back when China started shutting down factories. The real ramifications haven't even begun to show up in the US yet. A scythe is about to cut through the manufacturing sector as the supply chain shortfalls bite and we literally can't assemble things because there are no parts. And that'll be on top of factories closed because workers have too much close contact.

Several million, maybe 10m+ Americans who got sent home from work are not going to be receiving a call welcoming them back after lockdown. Everyone's gonna enact workforce haircuts in the face of supply shortfalls and tanked demand that will last well into next year. And, oh yeah, this is happening with a Fed that already shot their load on interest rates and a government that is already running a trillion dollar annual deficit.

I wonder if we may end up in a position where the economic consequences of lockdown are so devastating that we lift the restrictions and simply accept the losses of life.

Well, what do we value more, our economy or our life?
When an individual is faced with self preservation vs inconvenience, humans will generally choose self preservation. Not always, but usually. When faced with the choice of their own self preservation vs someone else's inconvenience, well, let's just say the economies screwed.