Coronavirus

[maxwelhse]

Using your numbers I absolutely agree, this is ridiculous, it’s just the bad flu. People on the way out, move along now.
BUT; I think its more accurate to use, just for arguments sake, 70% infection rate. Use wherever that’s not the point, use 1% mortality rate, not 5% which no one is arguing, and you have 2.3million deaths. That’s the perspective I wrote that from.

The infection rate doesn't appear anywhere near that high. You'd have millions upon million of people dead in China alone already and even the commies would have a hard time covering that up.

But... again... we'll see!

 

[T.Lex]

Yes, the more serious we take it, the more serious we can make a dent in that number.

The average increase from 3/13 through 3/27 will be insightful as to how effective the early steps were. (Maybe even inciteful.)

After that, we'll have an idea about how effective the significant measures were.

 

[SheepDog4Life]

Using your numbers I absolutely agree, this is ridiculous, it’s just the bad flu. People on the way out, move along now.
BUT; I think its more accurate to use, just for arguments sake, 70% infection rate. Use wherever that’s not the point, use 1% mortality rate, not 5% which no one is arguing, and you have 2.3million deaths. That’s the perspective I wrote that from.

Ahem, raises hand!

The 0.5-1% mortality rates are based upon hospital beds, and specifically ICU beds and ventilators being available. Last I saw, about 6% of the infected needed this level of care... of which, about 15% die, even with that level of care.

If they aren't available, many more die from lack of available care... quickly approaching that 6%.

 

[ditcherman]

Whelp, this has finally hit home.

Amazon delayed a game I preordered a year ago.

Now I have to leave the house tomorrow morning and physically purchase it.

I can barely conceal the rage and fury I'm feeling right now.

Oh, and one co-worker's spouse has it apparently... but this... this is what impacts me the most. I took next week off for vacation to play this game.

There’s a first world problems thread around here somewhere....

 

[ditcherman]

Ahem, raises hand!

The 0.5-1% mortality rates are based upon hospital beds, and specifically ICU beds and ventilators being available. Last I saw, about 6% of the infected needed this level of care... of which, about 15% die, even with that level of care.

If they aren't available, many more die from lack of available care... quickly approaching that 6%.

I thought the mortality rate was based on deaths divided by total known cases.

 

[Keith_Indy]

The average increase from 3/13 through 3/27 will be insightful as to how effective the early steps were. (Maybe even inciteful.)

After that, we'll have an idea about how effective the significant measures were.

I hear kids outside playing, they're going to not be sick and pass it around.

My boy still has his pizza delivery job going. He is supposed to be using hand sanitizer after handling cash/cards, etc. But he's a 19 year old, so who knows if he's doing that. Lincoln Tech is doing distance learning for him.

McDonalds this morning the cashier and food handler were both wearing food handling gloves.

In 2/4/6/8/10 weeks we'll know more... Time will tell.

Hopefully we all come out on the other side of this, but undoubtedly this will hit closer to home then any of us want it.

 

[SheepDog4Life]

The infection rate doesn't appear anywhere near that high. You'd have millions upon million of people dead in China alone already and even the commies would have a hard time covering that up.

But... again... we'll see!

Chi-coms locked Wuhan down 100%. They didn't let anyone leave Wuhan for other parts of China... other countries, sure, but not elsewhere in the mainland.

Also, last I saw, Wuhan is still on 100% lockdown - no leaving your house... at all.

 

[Dead Duck]

WELL THAT'S IT!

I'm burning my CHOPSTICKS!!!!

 

[maxwelhse]

Whelp, this has finally hit home.

Amazon delayed a game I preordered a year ago.

Now I have to leave the house tomorrow morning and physically purchase it.

I can barely conceal the rage and fury I'm feeling right now.

Oh, and one co-worker's spouse has it apparently... but this... this is what impacts me the most. I took next week off for vacation to play this game.

I feel you... My boss held me late at work, for no reason that mattered, on RDR2 release day. Pre ordered months in advance and waited 10 years for a sequel. It's been over a year and I'm still mad about it.

Then I got home 2 hours late and began the 4 hour installation process, and 2 hours of day 0 bug fix downloads, of my physical discs.

If I were you, I'd never forgive China for this insult and never buy anything from them again in protest!

 

[SheepDog4Life]

I thought the mortality rate was based on deaths divided by total known cases.

Yes, 80% are mild, negligible symptoms to flu-like symptoms, 20% of the cases require medical intervention, including hospitalization.

6% are critically ill and require ICU. There are 60,000 ICU beds in the nation. Once those are all full, the mortality rate starts heading towards 6%.

ETA: Hopefully, once widespread testing is available, it'll prove these percentages wrong. But Diamond Princess, Wuhan and increasingly, Italy, indicate they're not.

 

[T.Lex]

Yes, 80% are mild, negligible symptoms to flu-like symptoms, 20% of the cases require medical intervention, including hospitalization.

6% are critically ill and require ICU. There are 60,000 ICU beds in the nation. Once those are all full, the mortality rate starts heading towards 6%.

That also assumes hospital facilities are fully staffed with healthy caregivers.

 

[maxwelhse]

Chi-coms locked Wuhan down 100%. They didn't let anyone leave Wuhan for other parts of China... other countries, sure, but not elsewhere in the mainland.

Also, last I saw, Wuhan is still on 100% lockdown - no leaving your house... at all.

They locked it down weeks after it started and Wuhan has a population of 11 million people and the transmission rate for KungFlu is supposed to like 100% if you believe the news.

So... JUST in Wuhan, 70% would be over 7 million sick people, if 1% of them die (and the math is showing more like 5%, as I said), that's 700,000 dead bodies in Wuhan alone. If you bump up to the 5% as reality suggests, you're talking millions in one city.

I'm pretty sure that 70% was just thrown out as a wild card to make a point, but it makes my counter point pretty nicely for me as well. If this was anywhere near as bad as we're being led to believe, it would look like the Japanese invaded China again over there. I'll again point to the cruise ships where absolutely nothing was done to control it, because they really couldn't, and you're not seeing half of the passengers getting sick or dying. You're seeing under 1% infection and around 5% mortality.

So... Again, we're just peeing in the wind here since the data could change radically in either direction, but I'm not seeing any reason for the amount of panic we're creating. We should take it seriously, as we would a barking angry dog warning us to FO, but not as seriously as I would a barking angry man with a rifle, which is where this is heading in a hurry from the looks of things.

 

[T.Lex]

Italy's mortality rate actually appears to be about 8%, although they may still be under-testing the healthy population.

 

[ditcherman]

Yes, 80% are mild, negligible symptoms to flu-like symptoms, 20% of the cases require medical intervention, including hospitalization.

6% are critically ill and require ICU. There are 60,000 ICU beds in the nation. Once those are all full, the mortality rate starts heading towards 6%.

ETA: Hopefully, once widespread testing is available, it'll prove these percentages wrong. But Diamond Princess, Wuhan and increasingly, Italy, indicate they're not.

So I guess there’s two ways to talk about it.
I see your point in speaking about it like this in that you eliminate the unknown of how many will get infected, but it seems to me you don’t really know how many will need beds, because it’s still unknown how many will get infected.

 

[Keith_Indy]

Yes, 80% are mild, negligible symptoms to flu-like symptoms, 20% of the cases require medical intervention, including hospitalization.

6% are critically ill and require ICU. There are 60,000 ICU beds in the nation. Once those are all full, the mortality rate starts heading towards 6%.

ETA: Hopefully, once widespread testing is available, it'll prove these percentages wrong. But Diamond Princess, Wuhan and increasingly, Italy, indicate they're not.

And when looking at "the numbers" be careful to notice what that 80% is talking about, total confirmed infected (actual count of positive tests,) or some estimate, suspected, presumed.

An UNKNOWNABLE is the total number of untested people with no or very mild symptoms who have COVID19 versus any of the other stuff going around this season.

COVID19 isn't the flu, but it behaves as the flu behaves in terms of getting passed around. People should remember when it got impolite to cover their hands when they sneezed or coughed, the new advice was cough/sneeze in your elbow. Clean hands frequently, don't touch your face in public, don't touch others if not necessary, keep distance in stores, etc...

COVID19 is like SARS, and MERS, and what I mean is, we are dealing/dealt with those as well as others before it with far less technology.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a viral respiratory disease of zoonotic origin caused by the SARS coronavirus (SARS-CoV). Between November 2002 and July 2003, an outbreak of SARS in southern China caused an eventual 8,098 cases, resulting in 774 deaths reported in 17 countries (9.6% fatality rate),[1] with the majority of cases in mainland China and Hong Kong.[2] In late 2017, Chinese scientists traced the virus through the intermediary of civets to cave-dwelling horseshoe bats in Yunnan province.[3] No cases of SARS have been reported worldwide since 2004.[4] However, the related virus SARS-CoV-2 is the cause of the ongoing 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic.[5]

Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), also known as camel flu,[1] is a viral respiratory infection caused by the MERS-coronavirus (MERS-CoV).[2] Symptoms may range from mild to severe.[3] They include fever, cough, diarrhea and shortness of breath.[2] Disease is typically more severe in those with other health problems.[3] Mortality is about one-third of diagnosed cases.
MERS-CoV is a betacoronavirus derived from bats.[2] Camels have been shown to have antibodies to MERS-CoV but the exact source of infection in camels has not been identified. Camels are believed to be involved in its spread to humans but it is unclear how.[3] Spread between humans typically requires close contact with an infected person.[2] Its spread is uncommon outside of hospitals.[3] Thus, its risk to the global population is currently deemed to be fairly low.[3]

As of 2020 there is no specific vaccine or treatment for the disease;[4][3] a number of antiviral medications were being studied.[3] The World Health Organization recommends that those who come in contact with camels wash their hands frequently and do not touch sick camels[2] and that camel-based food products be appropriately cooked.[2] Treatments that help with the symptoms may be given to those infected.[2]
Just under 2000 cases have been reported as of 4 April 2017.[5] About 36% of those who are diagnosed with the disease die from it.[5] The overall risk of death may be lower as those with mild symptoms may be undiagnosed.[5][6] The first identified case occurred in 2012 in Saudi Arabia and most cases have occurred in the Arabian Peninsula

Camels snorting and whatnot in the local water supply, or right next to camp kitchen... and you know, it gets lonely in the desert and cold at night.

 

[T.Lex]

So I guess there’s two ways to talk about it.
I see your point in speaking about it like this in that you eliminate the unknown of how many will get infected, but it seems to me you don’t really know how many will need beds, because it’s still unknown how many will get infected.

Since 3/13, that's also been doubling every couple days (we're at about 10k now), even with a severe lack of testing. Not outrageous to think we'll hit 100k with broader testing. Heck, there's probably that many in NYC.

 

[Keith_Indy]

So, really this is:

SARS II
the sequel

Starring Donald J. Trump as the President of the United States of America

 

[ditcherman]

And when looking at "the numbers" be careful to notice what that 80% is talking about, total confirmed infected (actual count of positive tests,) or some estimate, suspected, presumed.

An UNKNOWNABLE is the total number of untested people with no or very mild symptoms who have COVID19 versus any of the other stuff going around this season.

COVID19 isn't the flu, but it behaves as the flu behaves in terms of getting passed around. People should remember when it got impolite to cover their hands when they sneezed or coughed, the new advice was cough/sneeze in your elbow. Clean hands frequently, don't touch your face in public, don't touch others if not necessary, keep distance in stores, etc...

COVID19 is like SARS, and MERS, and what I mean is, we are dealing/dealt with those as well as others before it with far less technology.

I can’t count how many times I’ve coughed into my elbow and in less than a minute crossed my arms, or wanted to.

 

[Ingomike]

You know he invented this virus too don’t you? It was only supposed to affect brown people, and those with TDS, but like every thing Trump has ever done, it was wrong.

This is not the political thread, so move your BS over there...

 

[ditcherman]

And when looking at "the numbers" be careful to notice what that 80% is talking about, total confirmed infected (actual count of positive tests,) or some estimate, suspected, presumed.

An UNKNOWNABLE is the total number of untested people with no or very mild symptoms who have COVID19 versus any of the other stuff going around this season.

COVID19 isn't the flu, but it behaves as the flu behaves in terms of getting passed around. People should remember when it got impolite to cover their hands when they sneezed or coughed, the new advice was cough/sneeze in your elbow. Clean hands frequently, don't touch your face in public, don't touch others if not necessary, keep distance in stores, etc...

COVID19 is like SARS, and MERS, and what I mean is, we are dealing/dealt with those as well as others before it with far less technology.



Camels snorting and whatnot in the local water supply, or right next to camp kitchen... and you know, it gets lonely in the desert and cold at night.

There is a great Joe Rogan podcast with Michael Osterholm discussing mers, SARS and much more. Very informative.