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    ArcadiaGP

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    11,791 coronavirus cases today, up 21.66% from 9,692 yesterday - the lowest percentage increase in 16 days.

    Jan 28: 32.31% increase
    Jan 29: 29.08% increase
    Jan 30: 25.69% increase
    Jan 31 (Today): 21.66% increase

    SARS followed an S curve. Growing exponentially then tapering off.

    Some think the S curve is now tapering for coronavirus, which would mean containment is working.

    EPplelvWsAE0wxy
     

    smokingman

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    Nov 11, 2008
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    11,791 coronavirus cases today, up 21.66% from 9,692 yesterday - the lowest percentage increase in 16 days.

    Jan 28: 32.31% increase
    Jan 29: 29.08% increase
    Jan 30: 25.69% increase
    Jan 31 (Today): 21.66% increase

    SARS followed an S curve. Growing exponentially then tapering off.

    Some think the S curve is now tapering for coronavirus, which would mean containment is working.

    EPplelvWsAE0wxy

    With a RO of 2.5-4.08(the 4.08 is the official Chinese cdc) it is more likely cases are either not diagnosed or reported. I read the report from Harvard that originally put the RO at 3.8 based on estimates that was lowered to a RO of 2.5 by changing how it was calculated using nothing but official Chinese CDC confirmed cases.

    Even at 2.5(which is probably the low estimate)a down turn in cases at this point is not likely.

    Here is what was said.

    Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding, a Harvard-trained epidemiologist who taught at the school for 15 years, published his alarming analysis of the coronavirus outbreak on Twitter Saturday, calling the virus "thermonuclear pandemic level bad" and declaring "I really hate to be the epidemiologist who has to admit this, but we are potentially faced with an unchecked pandemic that the world has not seen since the 1918 Spanish Influenza."
    Am I worried? Yes.
    Should everyone panic? No.

    Just take some precautions,be prepared and go about life as you normally do.



    Of course you can follow him on twitter or get it second hand from other sources.
    https://twitter.com/DrEricDing?ref_...ronavirus-is-thermonuclear-pandemic-level-bad
    https://disrn.com/news/harvard-epidemiologist-says-coronavirus-is-thermonuclear-pandemic-level-bad

    The scientists, from the Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Automation and the University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, both in in Beijing, calculated an R0 of 4.08 for the current outbreak
    Scientists warn nCoV more infectious than SARS, but experts have doubts | CIDRAP
     
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    Phase2

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    Dec 9, 2011
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    With a RO of 2.5-4.08(the 4.08 is the official Chinese cdc) it is more likely cases are either not diagnosed or reported. I read the report from Harvard that originally put the RO at 3.8 based on estimates that was lowered to a RO of 2.5 by changing how it was calculated using nothing but official Chinese CDC confirmed cases...

    Chris Martenson (Dr. Pathology) is doing an excellent job covering updates on the Caronavirus. He is very level-headed and has nothing to sell here. His last two updates are very concerning:

    [video=youtube;Atg6wrn6ctI]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Atg6wrn6ctI[/video]
    [video=youtube;Nmrm0mk5928]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nmrm0mk5928[/video]
     

    cobber

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    The Chinese have a propensity to murder doctors and nurses in the workplace, when they're disappointed in results (often inevitable). Beijing passed a law last year banning this behavior (reminiscent of our gun controllers). Lots of the boosted stories on CCTV et al. emphasize the heroic selflessness of medical workers. While this is true, inevitably the hoi polloi in China will blame medical workers when the coronavirus subsides and attacks will resume.

    If you were ever wondering why there are Chinese trained doctors coming to the US (apparently this is a problem in India as well)...
     

    smokingman

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    [h=2]Wuhan coronavirus can be spread even without symptoms, says top US infectious disease doctor[/h]From CNN's Elizabeth Cohen and John Bonifield
    The nation’s top infectious disease doctor says a study published Thursday night shows people can spread the Wuhan coronavirus before symptoms set in.
    "There’s no doubt after reading this paper that asymptomatic transmission is occurring. This study lays the question to rest,” said Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases.​
    The study, published in the New England Journal of Medicine, examined four Germany business associates who became infected through asymptomatic transmission.
    https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-02-01-20-intl-hnk/index.html



    https://www.foxnews.com/health/coronavirus-cdc-seventh-case-us

    The Boston case is an example of how this spreads. He came back from China on the 24th,and was sent home from a local clinic 2 days later "not sick enough to be hospitalized". How many places did he visit before his case was confirmed? The case in York is similar,with a student having attended classes at the university.

    Do not panic,but the attitude every thing is normal and there is little risk needs to change and quickly.
     
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