The Trump/Republican Primary/General Election Megathread

[T.Lex]

Can you explain why you think Trump will win (if that's who you are picking)? Are you of the indiucky group that thinks Trump is simply not polling well, but will overachieve in the ballot box?

you hit the nail on the head....

So, how much do you think Trump's under-reporting is worth? 5%? 10%? Does it vary by state?

I think it would be helpful for you guys who believe this to try to quantify it, to gauge how realistic it is. It is one thing to think that 1 or 2 out of a hundred people might misrepresent their beliefs in a telephone poll. It is another thing to think that 10 or 20 would.

 

[Ericpwp]

For the same reason I won't put a sign in my yard.

 

[T.Lex]

For the same reason I won't put a sign in my yard.

I don't understand.

You are (I assume) 1 person. I can't remember, but did you earlier state that you would lie in a poll about supporting Trump?

Either way, how many of "you" do you think there are in 100 Trump supporters, who would lie about supporting him to pollsters?

I don't think I put a Romney sign in my yard, but I voted for him. In fact, I only put signs up for local elections. But, I generally don't lie to pollsters about political stuff. (Demographic stuff, I sometimes have fun with.)

 

[Ericpwp]

I have never been polled, but I don't feel comfortable putting out that info. If I was to put a Trump sign in my yard, I would expect it at the very least to be kicked over/damaged/stolen, I won't get into the worst cases.

 

[T.Lex]

I have never been polled, but I don't feel comfortable putting out that info.

I understand, at a certain level (particularly on the yard sign). But how many other Trump supporters do you think would lie about it?

Certainly there are many Trump supporters proud of it - his rallies are apparently full to capacity. Some go to great lengths to show the passion of their support. Do you think 5 out of a 100 would tell an anonymous pollster that they supported HRC? If anything, I think they'd be more likely to say they supported Johnson.

At some point, it has to come down to numbers. For the important polls (IMHO, that is the state-specific EC polls) to be wrong, a significant number of Trump supporters would have to vocalize the words "Hillary Clinton" as their preferred candidate, selected randomly.

 

[jamil]

So the NeverTrump/Hillary crowd still thinks they will win in November?

You are conflating two disparate groups. NeverTrump thinks no matter whether Trump or Hillary wins in November, American loses.

oh but i'll be the i told you so......



you hit the nail on the head....

that remains to be seen.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

At least 110 [STRIKE]Republicans[/STRIKE] traitors to America that won't vote for Trump

At Least 110 Republican Leaders Won’t Vote for Donald Trump. Here’s When They Reached Their Breaking Point.

 

[printcraft]

At least 110 [STRIKE]Republicans[/STRIKE] traitors to America that won't vote for Trump

At Least 110 Republican Leaders Won’t Vote for Donald Trump. Here’s When They Reached Their Breaking Point.

There are a lot of "former" [STRIKE]pearl clutchers[/STRIKE] republican "high level" "leaders" in that list....... does high level mean establishment types?
The establishment types are not going to vote for Trump?

 

[T.Lex]

Is there any high level Republican who, if they said they could not vote for Trump, would make you doubt your support of Trump? Or any recognizable Republican?

Mitch Daniels, for instance. If he came out against Trump, would that make a difference for you?

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Is there any high level Republican who, if they said they could not vote for Trump, would make you doubt your support of Trump? Or any recognizable Republican?

Mitch Daniels, for instance. If he came out against Trump, would that make a difference for you?

From what I've seen... any politician that criticizes or denounces Trump's candidacy is immediately a "cuck hackjob establishment RINO communist."

But... that's just from what I've seen. Maybe there's one or two that have enough influence to get a pass.

 

[printcraft]

From what I've seen... any politician that criticizes or denounces Trump's candidacy is immediately a "cuck hackjob establishment RINO communist."

But... that's just from what I've seen. Maybe there's one or two that have enough influence to get a pass.

Communist is going a bit too far.

john boner..... if he's out I'm out.

 

[T.Lex]

@GPIschvnehenhaugnh What about the corollary?

If Mitch Daniels said, "You know, this Trump guy could be just the guy to get things done." Would that impact you? I gotta say, that would be an endorsement I would consider.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

@GPIschvnehenhaugnh What about the corollary?

If Mitch Daniels said, "You know, this Trump guy could be just the guy to get things done." Would that impact you? I gotta say, that would be an endorsement I would consider.

It's an odd situation.

I'm not really influenced by politicians or their opinions. I evaluate the candidate, the things they say (and more importantly, said), the types of stuff they lie about (or seem honest/genuine about), etc... My opinions of Trump's integrity were formed by things he's said and done. Given the information he's provided me, I feel like I can place a pretty safe bet on the things I now believe about him.

I don't think a reputable politician could tell me Trump is the man. I'd question why they were saying such a thing. Surely they stand to benefit from it. And it's not like it hasn't happened yet... there have been some Conservative politicians endorse Trump, people that I respect. I still respect them... but I also understand why they're doing it.

So... I guess the answer is no. In my case, Trump has to find a way to erase years of his Liberal life and show actual Conservative plans. But when he tends to sod everything up and flip on positions every week... that doesn't help me swing to his side. It just ain't happening.

I would respectfully disagree with Mitch. I don't think Trump can, or will, do anything he says.

 

[T.Lex]

It's an odd situation.

I'm not really influenced by politicians or their opinions. I evaluate the candidate, the things they say (and more importantly, said), the types of stuff they lie about (or seem honest/genuine about), etc... My opinions of Trump's integrity were formed by things he's said and done. Given the information he's provided me, I feel like I can place a pretty safe bet on the things I now believe about him.

I don't think a reputable politician could tell me Trump is the man. I'd question why they were saying such a thing. Surely they stand to benefit from it. And it's not like it hasn't happened yet... there have been some Conservative politicians endorse Trump, people that I respect. I still respect them... but I also understand why they're doing it.

So... I guess the answer is no. In my case, Trump has to find a way to erase years of his Liberal life and show actual Conservative plans. But when he tends to sod everything up and flip on positions every week... that doesn't help me swing to his side. It just ain't happening.

I would respectfully disagree with Mitch. I don't think Trump can, or will, do anything he says.

Fair answer.

But, if there's no one who would influence you toward Trump, why do you think there's anyone who would be influenced away from Trump by established Republicans.

 

[foszoe]

Fair answer.

But, if there's no one who would influence you toward Trump, why do you think there's anyone who would be influenced away from Trump by established Republicans.

I think positive or negative endorsement of one politician by another may cause me to rethink my feelings/positions.

That's true of many things. It's usually what sparks me to try something new or to revisit somewhere that I had previously discounted.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Fair answer.

But, if there's no one who would influence you toward Trump, why do you think there's anyone who would be influenced away from Trump by established Republicans.

Because one side seems to be based on actual words, actions, facts, and history of the candidate.

The other is based on recent words, actions, facts of the candidate... that ignore the other.

I hate saying there's a "right" and "wrong" on this, because there isn't... But the side that trusts Trump unconditionally is leaning toward the side that isn't playing with all information they're given.

I don't make that statement lightly, either... because I loathe comments like that. I've given Trump many chances to prove me wrong. But nothing he says adds up, and usually doesn't pan out how he says it. He keeps lying, or flipping, or outright failing. Those things should mean something to the people that support him.

To boil it down further: I'm harder to convince, because I believe I'm basing my opinions about Trump based on Trump himself, and facts about him.

I think they should be easier to convince, because... when presented with new information... it should be used to weigh on what information they currently have... and make an intelligent decision. That isn't happening for some reason.

 

[bwframe]

I have never been polled, but I don't feel comfortable putting out that info. If I was to put a Trump sign in my yard, I would expect it at the very least to be kicked over/damaged/stolen, I won't get into the worst cases.

[video=youtube;JwU0WdNpF0A]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JwU0WdNpF0A[/video]

Longer video here.

 

[ghitch75]

So, how much do you think Trump's under-reporting is worth? 5%? 10%? Does it vary by state?

I think it would be helpful for you guys who believe this to try to quantify it, to gauge how realistic it is. It is one thing to think that 1 or 2 out of a hundred people might misrepresent their beliefs in a telephone poll. It is another thing to think that 10 or 20 would.

when they poll 46% dems and 28% rep's you see who is going to be on top........and where i'm getting my info is from average joe's i talk to.....just as today i meet a whole family that went and switch from dem to rep because they are feed up with the way things are and they will vote Trump......

i would say your 10 to 20% isn't to far off........and no one could care less about the 110 lifer's that won't vote for him......they are shooting them selfs in the foot....

 

[ghitch75]

For the same reason I won't put a sign in my yard.

I have never been polled, but I don't feel comfortable putting out that info. If I was to put a Trump sign in my yard, I would expect it at the very least to be kicked over/damaged/stolen, I won't get into the worst cases.

are you scarred to stick up for what you believe in?

 

[T.Lex]

when they poll 46% dems and 28% rep's you see who is going to be on top

Those are very specific numbers - is there a particular poll that you think is an issue?

Along those same lines, if they call 100 random people, and 46 self-report as Dem, and 28 self-report as Republican, there's not much they can do about that. Now, let's say 20% of those who said they were Dem were actually Republican. That would mean about 9. So 46 - 9 = 37 and 28 + 9 = 37. (Hey - did you do that on purpose?!)

So, assuming worst-case poll sampling, and worst-case fibbing, it is still a tie. That's not exactly a ringing endorsement of Trump's chances.

........and where i'm getting my info is from average joe's i talk to.....just as today i meet a whole family that went and switch from dem to rep because they are feed up with the way things are and they will vote Trump......

That's called anecdotal evidence. Lots of reasons not to rely on it.