The Trump/Republican Primary/General Election Megathread

[Kutnupe14]

[video=youtube;JwU0WdNpF0A]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JwU0WdNpF0A[/video]

Longer video here.

Sad

 

[ArcadiaGP]

The year of easy marks.

Meet the man siphoning money from Donald Trump


A 25-year-old with no Trump ties raises $1 million by dangling 'dinner' with the GOP nominee

 

[Ericpwp]

are you scarred to stick up for what you believe in?

Do you really want to turn this into an OC vs CC discussion?

 

[T.Lex]

Do you really want to turn this into an OC vs CC discussion?

I was going to Glock v. 1911, but yours will do.

 

[ghitch75]

Do you really want to turn this into an OC vs CC discussion?

nope..... just asked a question that i see will not get answer...

 

[ghitch75]

Those are very specific numbers - is there a particular poll that you think is an issue?

Along those same lines, if they call 100 random people, and 46 self-report as Dem, and 28 self-report as Republican, there's not much they can do about that. Now, let's say 20% of those who said they were Dem were actually Republican. That would mean about 9. So 46 - 9 = 37 and 28 + 9 = 37. (Hey - did you do that on purpose?!)

So, assuming worst-case poll sampling, and worst-case fibbing, it is still a tie. That's not exactly a ringing endorsement of Trump's chances.

........and where i'm getting my info is from average joe's i talk to.....just as today i meet a whole family that went and switch from dem to rep because they are feed up with the way things are and they will vote Trump......
QUOTE]
That's called anecdotal evidence. Lots of reasons not to rely on it.

that is the problem you think it is random i think it is not......."anecdotal evidence"......so you saying when they say they will vote for Trump they won't????.......you by the numbers guys need to get out more offen.....

 

[Ericpwp]

Yes, fear for the sake of my property. I cannot be there to guard it 24/7.


Here is why I don't trust polling.

I used to audit packages at UPS. I would sit on the line and collect data. I would due my due diligence to get the most accurate data I could. On more than one occasion the numbers I turned in we deemed to be out of the range my lead thought were acceptable. They were changed on the spot to more acceptable numbers, even though I knew they were accurate. That group was not long for this world.

Also, how many people answer the phone for a strange number?

 

[T.Lex]

@ghitch - sorry for screwing up the quote tags. I fixed it in my original.

The problem with anecdotal evidence is basically a scaled up version of the problems you're associating with polling. People are MORE likely to fib about their preferred candidate in person, with other people expressing opposing views. Plus, it is most certainly NOT a random sample if it was a social setting. I encourage you to look up the statistical issues with anecdotal evidence.

Even so, I do believe you when you say that they told you they would vote for Trump. Especially if this was Indiana or Kentucky, it is statistically more likely that they would be Trump supporters.

And I get out plenty.

 

[PaulF]

are you scarred to stick up for what you believe in?

I'm not, and what I believe is that our users should be able to discuss a topic without resorting to personal attacks, bullying, or direct insults.

However, since this is the FOURTH in-thread warning to be issued I am going to take a different approach:

Please think carefully before posting, if users are not able to discuss this topic without resorting to personal attacks, don't be surprised when those users find themselves banned from INGO until after the election...maybe longer.

Be civil or be banned...I really can't make it any clearer than that.

This thread is now re-open for discussion.

 

[Ericpwp]

People are MORE likely to fib about their preferred candidate in person, with other people expressing opposing views. Plus, it is most certainly NOT a random sample if it was a social setting. I encourage you to look up the statistical issues with anecdotal evidence.

And I get out plenty.

I don't think that is true... the first part . A phone number ties you to an name and address. It may be random, but it is not anonymous, unlike a voting booth.

 

[T.Lex]

I don't think that is true... the first part . A phone number ties you to an name and address. It may be random, but it is not anonymous, unlike a voting booth.

Well, we're not comparing polling to voting. I thought the other dude was comparing polling to sitting around a barbecue talking politics.

Either way, anecdotal evidence is a bad way to predict things for many reasons.

Including what can get people unintentionally vacationed.

 

[Ericpwp]

Isn't that the whole point of polling??????

 

[Thor]

So the NeverTrump/Hillary crowd still thinks they will win in November?

Actually I think the never (fill in your candidate here) crowd thinks America is going to lose no matter what.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Duke is using a robo-call, urging voters to “stand up and vote for Donald Trump for president and vote for me, David Duke, for the U.S. Senate.”

Trump campaign disavows.

Trump's campaign disavows David Duke robocall - POLITICO

Clinton team also called out Trump's "doctor letter" regarding his health. Really, really weird of her to toss those stones from within her creaky, glass house.

If she's going to demand a thorough doctor eval... she needs the same.

... But Trump should also release his tax info, since she did. She might get some good points off of that.

Clinton team pans letter from Trump's doctor

 

[BugI02]

You are conflating two disparate groups. NeverTrump thinks no matter whether Trump or Hillary wins in November, American loses.




that remains to be seen.

So once they have fully internalized this thought, they proceed to do what, exactly, to mitigate the damage? Post unflattering characterizations of Trump? Awesome plan

 

[BugI02]

From what I've seen... any politician that criticizes or denounces Trump's candidacy is immediately a "cuck hackjob establishment RINO communist."

But... that's just from what I've seen. Maybe there's one or two that have enough influence to get a pass.

That's because if you're a career politician you're already overgrazing the public till, and your motives are already suspect. T. Lex any chance you could get Reagan or Maggie to speak from beyond the grave?

 

[BugI02]

Fair answer.

But, if there's no one who would influence you toward Trump, why do you think there's anyone who would be influenced away from Trump by established Republicans.

View attachment 49704

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Josh Jordan just went on a bit of a Twitter rant regarding Trump, his supporters, and immigration. Got some points to it.

You can probably pinpoint a lot of the things he says aligns with a lot of people here... even a couple Trump supporters have shared one or two of his thoughts here.

Donald Trump based his entire campaign on the idea that he was the only one to be tough on immigration. That was his one big selling point. Trump tapped into an anger among the GOP over immigration, and we all screamed that he would never even try to do what he was promising. The bottom line is that what Trump was promising was always dumb. A literal wall Mexico would pay for? No one would fall for that, right?

Yet Hannity/Coulter/Ingraham campaigned on Trump's behalf for months saying he was the only one tough on those Mexicans taking our jobs. No matter how much we screamed that Trump has no actual beliefs and would flip if he was nominated, they kept promoting an impossible idea.

The GOP had two candidates that truly could have defeated Hillary, Rubio and Kasich, and Rubio was vilified for his role in the Gang of 8.

Hannity went after Rubio to help Trump, even though Hannity himself backed the Gang of 8 stuff at the time because he's a spineless shill. Ann Coulter attacked Rubio like someone high on bath salts over immigration then wrote a book worshiping a fraud, so she was already gone. Rush sold us this wall nonsense because it was good for ratings, and he freely admits he has no actual principles.

You can have an entertaining radio/TV show and still tell the truth. I hope conservative media gives people a chance to prove that point. Now Trump's minions are using the words 'technological,' 'digital,' and 'virtual' to describe what was promised as a physical, giant wall.

Trump's campaign is now signaling that they want to secure the border first and then decide what to do with those here illegally later. Trump said last week that maybe some of the people that are already here illegally should stay. That's what his people used to call amnesty. In the last few weeks Trump has flipped on the ONE issue that we were promised separated him from the GOP candidates who could've won.

But we ALL knew Trump would backtrack on immigration. We screamed it, we warned you. We detailed every time he's flipped on *everything.* And like a group of petulant children, Trump supporters covered their ears and believed it would be different this time while blaming us. Of course it's not different. Trump's entire existence is to build his "brand" and feed his ego at the expense of everyone and everything. The GOP has now thrown away the White House and Senate/House seats for a guy who has flipped on the ONE issue he ran against everyone on.

There should be a round-table town hall of all the GOP entertainers who brought us this mess where they publicly admit they sold us all out. Every single one of you Trump supporters were conned either by Trump or his bought off media. You should all demand better, but you won't. Trump is a bad person. Why in the world anyone thinks that a promise from Trump means anything is beyond me. He only wins when we all lose.

I can not believe the GOP threw away 7 years of real electoral progress for a guy who has flipped on every single issue in this campaign. Trump does not deserve your vote, he does not deserve your time, and he does not deserve the honor of being a nominee for president.

We spent months trying to honestly detail why Trump is a monster who can't be trusted and were railroaded by Hannity/Rush/Fox News/etc. Trump has essentially taken on the position of Rubio/Kasich/Cruz/etc on immigration. Only difference is he can't beat Hillary to enact it. It would be so funny watching Trump flip on the one issue his supporters care about if it wasn't costing the Supreme Court and so much more.

Donald Trump is the reason why you should never nominate a candidate who refuses to be transparent at all during the entire primary process. Not once did Trump supporters demand specifics on his policies, to see his tax returns, or to get his medical records released. They matter! Now Trump is nothing more than a guy with the same position as Rubio/Kasich/etc, but with none of the personality, discipline, or decency. Trump backers aren't even backing a person w/ a unique immigration stance - it's the same as everyone else now. He lied to every one of you.

 

[Thor]

Yeah, the carnie barker is called out. No specifics, no policy, no base, just angst and nothing behind it.

 

[flightsimmer]

"What difference at this point does it make?"

This may well be the last election cycle that I participate in.
As Ronald Reagan once said,"I didn't leave the Democrat party, the Democrat party left me".
Well, that just about sum's up my feelings for the GOP.
The Democrat party and Hillary would like to bury the GOP for good and I fear the GOP has helped them do just that.
At this point, the Donald is the only game in town and to crush that last glimmer of hope is inconceivable.
I have read the last chapter of the book and I know how this world will end and there is no changing that, but, we need not hurry it along.
The one thing that stands out to me is that mankind is incapable of governing itself.
I have made my choice, have you?