The Republican Primary Race Is Filling Up

[chipbennett]

First, Chip, I need to thank you. This was something I just kinda grew up "knowing about" but I don't think I ever really looked it up. Now I have, thanks to your invitation.


Ironically, the first google hits for Indiana for me were the dems.

http://www.indems.org/files/2016INdemsDelegateSelection.pdf

The process has the candidate delegates file with a "presidential preference." So, they have to select which presidential candidate they support. Then, amongst themselves, they decide which of those supporters will be the delegates. I have heard of people "splitting" them and getting half a vote.

The caucus states can get kind of funky. The candidates have their people at the caucus locations, and then those candidate people DO get "selected" by the caucus-goers. However, those candidate people are only selected to go to the next "tier" of the selection process, which may have county, regional, and/or (finally) a state-level gathering (i.e. state convention), where the people "selected" in the previous tier vote for the allocation of people selected in the current tier. So, the candidate people are still merely voting for allocation of a group of people selected by others (i.e. the state party apparatus).

 

[chipbennett]

Does anyone else feel like they are at a total loss of what to expect over the next week? The polls for the primaries on Saturday were not accurate at all and it seems like just about anyone could win any of the upcoming primaries.

Yep, just sit back and [strike]enjoy[/strike] loathe the ride.

I take almost all polls with a huge grain of salt. In one specific case, there is one polling firm that I don't trust at all (because it is a PR firm). But in general, it seems that the polling firms really don't know how to read the electorate at this stage (and possibly, for the specific dynamics of this election).

 

[GodFearinGunTotin]

That quote I saw from the democrat "debate" the other night strikes me as rather on point. You know the one about republicans are fussing and fighting over campaign transgressions, missteps, overreaches, and the like. They're right, it is rather silly.

 

[chipbennett]

**** sake. Cruz ran (running?) with it LONG after it was denied.

Cruz is begging me to not vote for him.

Cruz is dirty. The way he is running his campaign (along with things that have come out while vetting him) is why I went from wanting him as VP a year ago, to all but despising him now.

I'm totally fascinated by this election. But unfortunately, there's nobody I eagerly want to vote for.

 

[T.Lex]

Just ran the RCP delegate calculator. Assuming Cruz can achieve a firewall of about 8 states in the midwest around what he has already won, and Florida to Rubio and Ohio to Kasich, then we get a brokered convention.

Florida to Trump, still brokered.

Florida and Ohio to Trump, he wins.

Still lots of variables, but - as with the general elections of the last few cycles - it comes down to Ohio and Florida in many ways.

 

[Thor]

**** sake. Cruz ran (running?) with it LONG after it was denied.

Cruz is begging me to not vote for him.

His advisors did purportedly tell him to drop out according to CNN. The Cruz campaign was only resending a headline on Drudge. Sending out messages in the news is hardly dishonest. They may not be accurate but they are out there and expecting them to not be used is silly.

Some Marco Rubio advisers say get out before Florida - CNNPolitics.com

 

[GodFearinGunTotin]

Cruz is dirty. The way he is running his campaign (along with things that have come out while vetting him) is why I went from wanting him as VP a year ago, to all but despising him now.

I'm totally fascinated by this election. But unfortunately, there's nobody I eagerly want to vote for.

I'm a Cruz guy. However I don't want to vote for somebody who is not as they portray themselves. I'd like to read the links you have that have caused you to arrive at this position.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

His advisors did purportedly tell him to drop out according to CNN. The Cruz campaign was only resending a headline on Drudge. Sending out messages in the news is hardly dishonest. They may not be accurate but they are out there and expecting them to not be used is silly.

Some Marco Rubio advisers say get out before Florida - CNNPolitics.com

It's a fake story. CNN anonymous source (they backpedaled from "sources"), and CNN didn't even ASK the Rubio campaign if it was true before running the story, and Rubio's campaign has denied the entire thing.

Cruz quoted the CNN story.

 

[Thor]

I'm a Cruz guy. However I don't want to vote for somebody who is not as they portray themselves. I'd like to read the links you have that have caused you to arrive at this position.

My thoughts exactly, though worded in a much more polite format.

 

[GodFearinGunTotin]

His advisors did purportedly tell him to drop out according to CNN. The Cruz campaign was only resending a headline on Drudge. Sending out messages in the news is hardly dishonest. They may not be accurate but they are out there and expecting them to not be used is silly.

Some Marco Rubio advisers say get out before Florida - CNNPolitics.com

Similar to what happened in Iowa with Carson. Based on what I read, he was planning on dropping out then but decided to stick around when he thought Cruz was going to get sunk for the trumped up outrage. A week or so ago, I thought Rubio had a chance to parlay recent debate performances and his new found vigor against Trump into a movement for him. But not so much now.

 

[GodFearinGunTotin]

It's a fake story. CNN anonymous source (they backpedaled from "sources"), and CNN didn't even ASK the Rubio campaign if it was true before running the story, and Rubio's campaign has denied the entire thing.

Cruz quoted the CNN story.

Cruz's campaign is the "anonymous" source?

 

[Twangbanger]

If there is a brokered convention, I don't see Cruz walking away as the nominee no matter what delegate count he has. They will treat him the same way they would treat Trump.

Most likely the truth, which is why Cruz wants Rubio out now.

And it's a shrewd play. Kasich would deliver Ohio, as veep. And, if 15 Million dollars of outside TV ads can't win Florida for Rubio in the Primary, then he won't beat Hillary there anyway. So why not give it the college try?

The reason Twitter can't figure this out, is because it's probably filled with young Rubio supporters who cannot envision the race without him. The sinister possibility of Cruz not playing the team game, and attempting to go it alone is probably off their radar screen.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Cruz's campaign is the "anonymous" source?

Wouldn't be surprised.

 

[Thor]

It's a fake story. CNN anonymous source, and CNN didn't even ASK the Rubio campaign if it was true before running the story, and Rubio's campaign has denied the entire thing.

Cruz QUOTED the CNN story.

My point exactly. Welcome to a social media world campaign. Also, Rubio's campaign denying it has no more veracity than CNN reporting it, no evidence anywhere. Using a news report in the public domain is not dishonest. Checking with your competition for accuracy is not required, any more than it was with Drumpf and his birther BS or Rubio and his holding hands with Drumpf saying Cruz was a liar.

It was up to the Rubio camp to shut that down, not the Cruz camp to prove it was false. Making hay off news in the public domain...if the report was false it was the reporters fault.

 

[GodFearinGunTotin]

Wouldn't be surprised.

Rubio is lying about his and Cruz's positions on immigration and the gang of 8 bill. I would more likely believe it's Rubio lying again. He has the ability to deceive, obviously and he also has the need to salvage his shrinking, narrowing path to the nomination. Oh, and if he can ensnare Cruz in another fake scandal, so much the better.

 

[jamil]

I think we're just given to trust our own heroes and blame the boogiemen.

 

[GodFearinGunTotin]

I think we're just given to trust our own heroes and blame the boogiemen.

True. I trust Cruz. If my trust is misplaced, I'll gladly entertain verifiable articles of news I've missed.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

It was up to the Rubio camp to shut that down, not the Cruz camp to prove it was false. Making hay off news in the public domain...if the report was false it was the reporters fault.

Nah. They did shut it down. Cruz continued to run with it. It says more about Cruz's integrity (and CNN's continuing bull****) than it does about anyone else.

How in the hell a news org spreads a fake story about candidate 1.... and candidate 2 runs with it after it was denied.... INGO people come to blame candidate 1.... is beyond me.

It's no surprise that Trumpbart and Drudge had it front-page all day. Lot of scum-raking news outlets during this election cycle.

Actually, it's about ethics in political election journalism.

 

[jamil]

True. I trust Cruz. If my trust is misplaced, I'll gladly entertain verifiable articles of news I've missed.

I'm past trusting any of them. I'm down to the choice between least evils. I guess that's Cruz. I think he's a smarmy liar. He's just a pragmatically better choice IMHO than the rest.

 

[GodFearinGunTotin]

I'm past trusting any of them. I'm down to the choice between least evils. I guess that's Cruz. I think he's a smarmy liar. He's just a pragmatically better choice IMHO than the rest.

I know you've said that several states times before, more or less. I get that his mannerisms are less than perfection but I've lstened and watched many of his interviews and he's about as straight forward as I've seen a candidate at any level.