The Republican Primary Race Is Filling Up

[T.Lex]

Are we to believe that if it goes to the convention, they will give the nomination to anyone but the leader in delegates?

It is kinda a Mexican standoff. (Can we still say that?)

The numbers don't give anyone the clear victory, so a negotiated resolution must be had. Trump is so polarizing, and would be so clearly rejected by late-primaries if he doesn't win outright, that he would be pretty toxic.

Cruz might also be counted out, for similar reasons.

I think that's why people expect Rubio to come away with a brokered nomination. Or a dark horse candidate like (God forbid) Romney.

 

[Tombs]

It is kinda a Mexican standoff. (Can we still say that?)

The numbers don't give anyone the clear victory, so a negotiated resolution must be had. Trump is so polarizing, and would be so clearly rejected by late-primaries if he doesn't win outright, that he would be pretty toxic.

Cruz might also be counted out, for similar reasons.

I think that's why people expect Rubio to come away with a brokered nomination. Or a dark horse candidate like (God forbid) Romney.

If Rubio or Romney walks away with it, be ready to watch the GOP be dismantled entirely and fade into the darkness as hillary takes office.

A statistically insignificant amount of people in the country support Rubio. He won a primary on an island that isn't even a state.

[video=youtube;E9pw724AWLg]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E9pw724AWLg[/video]

 

[ArcadiaGP]

CNN just ran an anonymous source about Rubio dropping out, irresponsibly.

Rubio campaign says it's insane, 100% false.

Campaign heads saying it's coming from "another campaign"

Wonder who...

Worth remembering, CNN is the network that gave Trump two long interviews immediately following a debate he was in that gave him the most talk time. Nate Silver brings up the possibility that Trump is the lovechild of Pat Buchanan and Malaysia Airlines Flight 370. Might be true.

 

[chipbennett]

Mittens has filed paperwork to run for president

Mitt Romney Files FEC Paperwork To Run In 2016 Election

But, that's as un-possible as criminals having guns in gun free zones. Just 4 days ago, Romney said that he wasn't running:

Mitt Romney Says He Will Not Run For President - Fortune

 

[chipbennett]

Best path for Cruz is Rubio winning Florida. Cruz supporters should get Rubio that victory and nearly guarantee contested convention, where Cruz essentially takes the nomination.

Cruz campaigning in Florida for some reason is actually bad for him.

Do you seriously think that the GOPe will give the nomination to Cruz in a brokered convention?

It will be Romney. Maybe Paul Ryan. But it will NOT be any of the three front-runners.

 

[chipbennett]

Who runs the convention? The GOPe
RNC Rules State GOP Nominee Must Have Won 8 States to Be Considered Candidate at Convention.

...to be considered on the first ballot. After the first ballot (even if empty - i.e. the convention is brokered) all bets are off. Anyone can be nominated, and delegates are no longer bound.

How long it takes them to change that rule (which they can do at any time, they are under no constraints)...

People keep saying that, but I simply don't find that anywhere in the rules. Any rule-changing at the 2016 convention applies to the next four years, and the 2012 convention.

...to accommodate Mittdalf the White or Robio will be instructive

Trump will only win the nomination if he does so outright, on the first ballot. Neither Cruz nor Rubio will ever be nominated, first ballot or out of a brokered convention. If the convention is brokered, the GOPe will nominate someone inside the Establishment. I've been saying for weeks that the play is for Romney to step in.

 

[jamil]

Do you seriously think that the GOPe will give the nomination to Cruz in a brokered convention?

It will be Romney. Maybe Paul Ryan. But it will NOT be any of the three front-runners.

The Republican Party is stupid. But they're not THAT stupid. They will not award the nomination to someone who did not win any delegates. I think the GOPe's understanding of their fickle position is better than you think. In a brokered convention, if it's not Trump it will be either Cruz or Rubio, maybe Kasich. Romney is smokin' some krazy **** if he thinks a brokered convention would nominate him.

 

[chipbennett]

CNN just ran an anonymous source about Rubio dropping out, irresponsibly.

Rubio campaign says it's insane, 100% false.

Campaign heads saying it's coming from "another campaign"

Wonder who...

Worth remembering, CNN is the network that gave Trump two long interviews immediately following a debate he was in that gave him the most talk time. Nate Silver brings up the possibility that Trump is the lovechild of Pat Buchanan and Malaysia Airlines Flight 370. Might be true.

Worth remembering: Cruz has already pulled just that dirty trick once already during this campaign.

 

[jamil]

Worth remembering: Cruz has already pulled just that dirty trick once already during this campaign.

Makes me think he wouldn't be so crass to try the same trick again. However, it seems there's another candidate in the running who might benefit from "someone" pulling that trick. Hmmm. Who might that be. I wonder....

 

[chipbennett]

The Republican Party is stupid. But they're not THAT stupid. They will not award the nomination to someone who did not win any delegates. I think the GOPe's understanding of their fickle position is better than you think. In a brokered convention, if it's not Trump it will be either Cruz or Rubio, maybe Kasich. Romney is smokin' some krazy **** if he thinks a brokered convention would nominate him.

I think you underestimate the stupidity - nay, the near-suicidal tendency - of the GOPe.

As for the delegates: they are selected by party insiders. They are bound to a candidate on the first ballot - but on the first ballot only. After that, they are free to vote for whomever they want - which means that they are free to vote for whomever the party insiders, i.e. the GOPe, want.

 

[chipbennett]

Makes me think he wouldn't be so crass to try the same trick again. However, it seems there's another candidate in the running who might benefit from "someone" pulling that trick. Hmmm. Who might that be. I wonder....

Probably the same candidate who has already been proven to be willing to pull that exact dirty trick.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

There?s No Good Reason For Cruz To Want A Brokered Convention | The Daily Caller

According to the “Anybody but Trump” strategy supported by many within the conservative commentariat, Florida is supposed to go to Marco Rubio
79% and, therefore, Cruz is only supposed to compete for states granted to him by the brokered convention strategy — which aren’t many states following his victories last week.

But, so goes the standard anti-Trump reasoning, the only way to prevent a nominee Trump is for there to be a coordinated strategy for the three candidates who are not graced by golden manes to only vie for wins in states they’re slated to secure. Thus, Cruz and John Kasich should give up on Florida, Rubio and Cruz on Ohio and Kasich and Rubio on Idaho.

However, there’s one huge problem with this proposal: the Texan has no interest in bringing about a brokered convention. “A brokered convention is the pipe-dream of the Washington establishment. It is their hope they can snatch this nomination from the people,” Cruz declared at CPAC over the weekend.

But does Cruz have a viable path? Has almost no chance at FL. Could only get OH if maybe Kasich dropped and backed him.

Edit: Also, I remember when half of Jeb/Carson/Christie voters were supposed to go to Trump

 

[T.Lex]

Do you seriously think that the GOPe will give the nomination to Cruz in a brokered convention?

It will be Romney. Maybe Paul Ryan. But it will NOT be any of the three front-runners.
...

As for the delegates: they are selected by party insiders. They are bound to a candidate on the first ballot - but on the first ballot only. After that, they are free to vote for whomever they want - which means that they are free to vote for whomever the party insiders, i.e. the GOPe, want.

I think I figured out another disconnect with the understanding of the GOPe. The GOPe can only influence, but not decide, a brokered convention. The delegates will still have been picked by the candidate. Trump's people will still be Trump's people. Cruz's people will still be Cruz's people.

It would be a case study in groupthink. A majority of them would have to sort out - mostly for themselves - who to vote for in each round. That's why the popular opinion is that it would not be one of the existing candidates. Those battle lines are already drawn, and unlikely to be crossed. Someone "new" is attractive because their candidate hasn't really bad-mouthed them yet.

Or, another scenario is possible if Rubio's delegates are the difference between Trump and Cruz. That gives them much leverage with the GOPe, and Cruz's team. If they can play kingmaker, they will (properly) extract promises for the ability to nominate.

ETA:
Trump wouldn't let the GOPe pick his delegates. He/his team gets to pick them. They are usually people who contributed or volunteered in the states from whence the delegates come.

 

[Twangbanger]

This is not complicated to figure out, people. Cruz is simply smarter than your average bear. He is playing the possibility that Rubio will lose Florida, and could then be pressured out of the race entirely. Due to the deep finances of the anti-Trump movement, Cruz knows he and Kasich alone could broker the Convention, even if Rubio were out.

It's a smart play on his part. He knows full-well this is headed to a brokered convention, and also knows his real competitor now is Rubio - not Trump. Cruz knows Trump has peaked, but, could still help his own case by keeping Florida from Rubio. He's simply trying to use public pressure and create a "crucible effect" this time next week, to force his most formidable establishment competitor out of the race before it ever gets to the convention.

Who's to say if it will work. But it's smart and absolutely not a mystery to figure out.

 

[chipbennett]

I think I figured out another disconnect with the understanding of the GOPe. The GOPe can only influence, but not decide, a brokered convention. The delegates will still have been picked by the candidate. Trump's people will still be Trump's people. Cruz's people will still be Cruz's people.

No. The state party apparatus picks the delegates for their state (usually at a state-level convention). Those delegates are then "bound" according to the primary preference election, but only for the first ballot.

ETA:
Trump wouldn't let the GOPe pick his delegates. He/his team gets to pick them. They are usually people who contributed or volunteered in the states from whence the delegates come.

Can you cite a source for candidates picking their own delegates?

 

[T.Lex]

First, Chip, I need to thank you. This was something I just kinda grew up "knowing about" but I don't think I ever really looked it up. Now I have, thanks to your invitation.

Can you cite a source for candidates picking their own delegates?

Ironically, the first google hits for Indiana for me were the dems.

http://www.indems.org/files/2016INdemsDelegateSelection.pdf

The process has the candidate delegates file with a "presidential preference." So, they have to select which presidential candidate they support. Then, amongst themselves, they decide which of those supporters will be the delegates. I have heard of people "splitting" them and getting half a vote.

Some snippets (generally page 5-6):

An individual can qualify as a candidate for district-level delegate or alternate to the 2016 Democratic National Convention by filing a statement of candidacy designating his or her singular presidential (or uncommitted) preference and a pledge of support for the presidential candidate (including uncommitted status)
...
Each presidential candidate, or that candidate's authorized representative(s),must then file with the State Democratic Chair by 12:00 p.m. EST on June 6, 2016, a list of all such candidates he or she has approved...

Also, on the Republican side, it looks like the rules changed this year - more in line with what you describe.

Process for picking GOP delegates rankles some | Local News | tribstar.com

Kinda whacked.

ETA:
Found the Indiana GOP rules on the topic - and Chip, you are right about the current rules (pg. 45).
http://www.indiana.gop/sites/default/files/Party Rules.pdf

A delegate or alternate delegate selected from a congressional district to the national convention shall, on the first ballot at the national convention support the candidate for President of the United States who received the highest number of votes in the congressional district, if the person is in fact a candidate at the convention. If the presidential candidate who wins the congressional district is not on the ballot at the Republican National Convention, the congressional delegates are no longer bound

And, it does not appear that the presidential candidate's team has any input on who goes.

I was wrong.

 

[Landon]

This is not complicated to figure out, people. Cruz is simply smarter than your average bear. He is playing the possibility that Rubio will lose Florida, and could then be pressured out of the race entirely. Due to the deep finances of the anti-Trump movement, Cruz knows he and Kasich alone could broker the Convention, even if Rubio were out.

It's a smart play on his part. He knows full-well this is headed to a brokered convention, and also knows his real competitor now is Rubio - not Trump. Cruz knows Trump has peaked, but, could still help his own case by keeping Florida from Rubio. He's simply trying to use public pressure and create a "crucible effect" this time next week, to force his most formidable establishment competitor out of the race before it ever gets to the convention.

Who's to say if it will work. But it's smart and absolutely not a mystery to figure out.

If there is a brokered convention, I don't see Cruz walking away as the nominee no matter what delegate count he has. They will treat him the same way they would treat Trump.

 

[Landon]

Does anyone else feel like they are at a total loss of what to expect over the next week? The polls for the primaries on Saturday were not accurate at all and it seems like just about anyone could win any of the upcoming primaries.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Does anyone else feel like they are at a total loss of what to expect over the next week? The polls for the primaries on Saturday were not accurate at all and it seems like just about anyone could win any of the upcoming primaries.

Yep, just sit back and [strike]enjoy[/strike] loathe the ride.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Probably the same candidate who has already been proven to be willing to pull that exact dirty trick.

**** sake. Cruz ran (running?) with it LONG after it was denied.

Cruz is begging me to not vote for him.