The Republican Primary Race Is Filling Up

[chipbennett]

To your point, though, yes. They either need to unite or Rubio needs to drop out. I think he's shown to be less "electable" of the two.

I don't understand this line of thinking. Other than the deep south, that is all but done in the primary process, where does Cruz have a voting bloc? Rubio is right behind Cruz in the delegate count, and IMHO is far more likely to find voting blocs in the remaining states.

That Cruz didn't run away with the south, to me, is evidence that he has no path to nomination. That Rubio managed to pick up delegates and remain right behind Cruz even through the south, to me, is evidence that, of the two, Rubio has a more realistic path to victory.

 

[T.Lex]

But its ok for the GOPe to be talking and considering running a 3 party candidate.

Just to be clear, I think it is equally math-ignorant for the GOPe to do it as for Trump.

While I understand the frustration both have, a bad idea is a bad idea.

Cruz and Rubio will never unite, you might as well give up on that.

Then Cruz better win more and Rubio lose more.

 

[MisterChester]

What about releasing his plan means it's honest and his actual intentions? Why is there zero skepticism on INGO when it comes to Trump support?

"Trump told me he likes guns, I can't believe you rubes thinks he still supports AWB. That was totally years ago." His support of individual mandate was, like, so 2015.


Unrelated:

Trump Gives White Supremacists Press Credentials

Are people not allowed to change their minds?

 

[T.Lex]

I don't understand this line of thinking. Other than the deep south, that is all but done in the primary process, where does Cruz have a voting bloc? Rubio is right behind Cruz in the delegate count, and IMHO is far more likely to find voting blocs in the remaining states.

I'm not sure you've seen the most recent delegate count?
Trump: 319
Cruz: 226 (-93)
Rubio: 110 (-116)

Cruz is closer to Trump than Rubio is to Cruz.

In terms of voting bloc - that's part of the problem. I believe Cruz/Rubio are splitting moderate and establishment GOP voters. Perhaps not all of Rubio's delegates would go to Cruz, but the majority would - a significant majority, I think.

ETA:
If Rubio drops out, and endorses Cruz, and explicitly states that he expects his delegates to vote for Cruz, then all of a sudden Cruz leads.

Yes, when I have another cup of coffee, I'll realize how outlandish that scenario is.

 

[Landon]

Lindsey Graham: Brokered convention would be unfair... to Trump - CNNPolitics.com

Shocked to see Graham say this! But I think he is right. If the GOPe wants the save their party they should unite with Trump as their candidate. I know its not what they want but its the only way to move forward and have a hope at the White House.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Are people not allowed to change their minds?

Good question. I give slightly more leeway to mind-changing when it comes to normal people. However, when it comes to a person that has... for a lifetime... thought a certain way and supported certain things that consistently align with a leftist ideology... and then this same person, conveniently before an election, tries to flip all those beliefs to align closer to what he thinks the majority would want...?

No, I don't give that any credit. It doesn't take a large amount of "hmm, something's fishy here" to see that he's lying... or at least that he's not genuinely invested in these new ideals. Everything would be a negotiation with him, and he holds no views solidly or consistently. I hate saying something is "fact" in a discussion, because it sounds silly... but these actually are the facts in regards to his views. He has done nothing to earn his supporter's unwavering and unflinching belief in him. And given who/what he is, that should make people far more skeptical.

It looks and sounds way too much like a duck for me to call it a goose.

 

[chipbennett]

What about releasing his plan means it's honest and his actual intentions? Why is there zero skepticism on INGO when it comes to Trump support?

Rubio has proven to be untrustworthy on illegal immigration and amnesty. Cruz has proven to be untrustworthy on TPP. Forgive me if I don't find either of them to be particularly more trustworthy than the unknown quantity, Trump.

Is there risk with Trump? Oh heck yes. But I already know that I'm going to get stabbed in the back by either Rubio or Cruz.

 

[T.Lex]

But I already know that I'm going to get stabbed in the back by either Rubio or Cruz.

For the record, I do believe Trump is the kind of guy who would stab a person in the front.

Or hire someone to do it.

 

[MisterChester]

Good question. I give slightly more leeway to mind-changing when it comes to normal people. However, when it comes to a person that has... for a lifetime... thought a certain way and supported certain things that consistently align with a leftist ideology... and then this same person, conveniently before an election, tries to flip all those beliefs to align closer to what he thinks the majority would want...?

No, I don't give that any credit. It doesn't take a large amount of "hmm, something's fishy here" to see that he's lying... or at least that he's not genuinely invested in these new ideals. Everything would be a negotiation with him, and he holds no views solidly or consistently. I hate saying something is "fact" in a discussion, because it sounds silly... but these actually are the facts in regards to his views. He has done nothing to earn his supporter's unwavering and unflinching belief in him. And given who/what he is, that should make people far more skeptical.

Fair enough, but it's totally possible he has. I've changed my views on things that I thought I'd never change on. It just depends on the person. Donald Trump is Donald Trump, yes, but I am willing to let some recent change of hearts go. At this point I'm not supporting him so much so as I really do not want a Rubio or Cruz presidency. And I really don't mind if he wants to negotiate. That's how things get done. Nothing is ever going to change if no one is willing to go to the table. Being in the business world myself, hardly any business would make money or get what they want if nobody negotiated. People are so afraid of negotiation for no real reason.

 

[MisterChester]

Rubio has proven to be untrustworthy on illegal immigration and amnesty. Cruz has proven to be untrustworthy on TPP. Forgive me if I don't find either of them to be particularly more trustworthy than the unknown quantity, Trump.

Is there risk with Trump? Oh heck yes. But I already know that I'm going to get stabbed in the back by either Rubio or Cruz.

I agree with chip here..

 

[ArcadiaGP]

I'm not sure you've seen the most recent delegate count?
Trump: 319
Cruz: 226 (-93)
Rubio: 110 (-116)

Cruz is closer to Trump than Rubio is to Cruz.

In terms of voting bloc - that's part of the problem. I believe Cruz/Rubio are splitting moderate and establishment GOP voters. Perhaps not all of Rubio's delegates would go to Cruz, but the majority would - a significant majority, I think.

ETA:
If Rubio drops out, and endorses Cruz, and explicitly states that he expects his delegates to vote for Cruz, then all of a sudden Cruz leads.

Yes, when I have another cup of coffee, I'll realize how outlandish that scenario is.

Didn't you hear? Cruz isn't eligible.

 

[jamil]

The Republicans need to settle on what they want. First they need to decide if Trump as a nominee is acceptable to them. If so, let it ride. If not, they need to decide if they want to attempt to force a brokered convention, or if they want to clear the field and compete head to head. But they need to decide that now. Right now. And they need to pick the guy they think has the best chance of beating Trump. That's probably not Carson, Kasich, or even Rubio. It's probably Cruz.

 

[MisterChester]

The Republicans need to settle on what they want. First they need to decide if Trump as a nominee is acceptable to them. If so, let it ride. If not, they need to decide if they want to attempt to force a brokered convention, or if they want to clear the field and compete head to head. But they need to decide that now. Right now. And they need to pick the guy they think has the best chance of beating Trump. That's probably not Carson, Kasich, or even Rubio. It's probably Cruz.

Cruz didn't succeed with the voter groups he should have succeeded with. Rubio is succeeding with groups he should be doing well with. It's Rubio.

 

[chipbennett]

Unrelated:

Trump Gives White Supremacists Press Credentials

So, because SPLC* says that someone is a white supremacist, and that allegation gets repeated by HuffPo and their ilk, then the allegation must be true?

* SPLC are a fascist, progressive outfit intended to apply Alinsky rules to conservatives. SPLC can go **** themselves.

 

[T.Lex]

The Republicans need to settle on what they want. First they need to decide if Trump as a nominee is acceptable to them. If so, let it ride. If not, they need to decide if they want to attempt to force a brokered convention, or if they want to clear the field and compete head to head. But they need to decide that now. Right now. And they need to pick the guy they think has the best chance of beating Trump. That's probably not Carson, Kasich, or even Rubio. It's probably Cruz.

You know, that brings to mind that this whole idea of a "Republican establishment" as a monolithic thing is a bit of a fantasy. If it were real, we wouldn't have this problem.

To your point, though, I'll decide if Trump is acceptable once he's clear about what he'll do and how he'll do it, in concrete terms. With the others, there is a history of public office upon which to rely. With Trump, there is no such history, so he'll have to be more specific on details.

 

[chipbennett]

“I am watching television and I am seeing ad after ad after ad put in by the establishment knocking the hell out of me, and it’s really unfair,” Trump said on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe.” “But if I leave, if I go, regardless of independent, which I may do — I mean, may or may not. But if I go, I will tell you, these millions of people that joined, they’re all coming with me.”

Trump again threatens independent bid - POLITICO

That's a pretty mild threat, as far as threats go. The point of the statement was that Trump is bringing in millions more votes into the Republican primary, and those votes won't stick around without Trump. (He's right about that, by the way.)

As for the "threat" itself: I agree with him. The RNC made him sign a pledge, and now they are acting completely in bad faith with respect to that pledge.

 

[T.Lex]

Cruz didn't succeed with the voter groups he should have succeeded with. Rubio is succeeding with groups he should be doing well with. It's Rubio.

Wait - so Cruz's broader base is a problem?

Factually speaking, he's succeeded more than Rubio, and the overall demographics aren't going to change much from here on out.

 

[T.Lex]

The RNC made him sign a pledge, and now they are acting completely in bad faith with respect to that pledge.

How?

They haven't really done anything (that I know of). They won't, until the primaries are over.

Not kissing his ass is violating something? Romney's not the chairman of the party - he can do whatever he wants.

 

[JettaKnight]

Lindsey Graham: Brokered convention would be unfair... to Trump - CNNPolitics.com

Shocked to see Graham say this! But I think he is right. If the GOPe wants the save their party they should unite with Trump as their candidate. I know its not what they want but its the only way to move forward and have a hope at the White House.

Since when did politics become fair?

 

[chipbennett]

I'm not sure you've seen the most recent delegate count?
Trump: 319
Cruz: 226 (-93)
Rubio: 110 (-116)

Cruz is closer to Trump than Rubio is to Cruz.

You're talking about a difference-of-differecnes of 23 delegates: 0.1% of all delegates.

But the point is: Cruz badly underperformed in his likely-strongest states, and with his likely-strongest demographics. Rubio won Minnesota and performed well in Virginia, which are representative of his likely-strongest states and likely-strongest demographics.

In terms of voting bloc - that's part of the problem. I believe Cruz/Rubio are splitting moderate and establishment GOP voters. Perhaps not all of Rubio's delegates would go to Cruz, but the majority would - a significant majority, I think.

ETA:
If Rubio drops out, and endorses Cruz, and explicitly states that he expects his delegates to vote for Cruz, then all of a sudden Cruz leads.

Yes, when I have another cup of coffee, I'll realize how outlandish that scenario is.

I suppose that pledged/bound delegates could go to whomever their candidate endorses. But I think it is more likely that, if their candidate is not qualified to be presented for the first ballot, then they are free to vote for whomever (i.e. they become unpledged/unbound).