The Nuclear Iran Situation

[T.Lex]

So the competing narratives can be harmonized.

We say the drone was shot down over international waters. That's probably true.

Iran says that the drone had violated its airspace. That's probably true, too.

Stealthish drone crosses border to get intel, then scoots back. SAM launches at some point - maybe while in Iranian airspace, maybe not - but doesn't catch up until international airspace.

Both can be true, for as far as they go.

 

[Kutnupe14]

So the competing narratives can be harmonized.

We say the drone was shot down over international waters. That's probably true.

Iran says that the drone had violated its airspace. That's probably true, too.

Stealthish drone crosses border to get intel, then scoots back. SAM launches at some point - maybe while in Iranian airspace, maybe not - but doesn't catch up until international airspace.

Both can be true, for as far as they go.

If both are true, then Iran would be well within it's rights to down the drone.

 

[T.Lex]

If both are true, then Iran would be well within it's rights to down the drone.

And we'd be within our rights to respond in kind.

That's the problem with escalation, hard to predict when it'll stop.

It's a variation of what happened with the Russian jet that the Ukrainians shot down. Putin opted to not respond in kind, at least not publicly and not when it happened. He took a longer view.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Iran has made a complaint to the United Nations

 

[Kutnupe14]

And we'd be within our rights to respond in kind.

That's the problem with escalation, hard to predict when it'll stop.

It's a variation of what happened with the Russian jet that the Ukrainians shot down. Putin opted to not respond in kind, at least not publicly and not when it happened. He took a longer view.

I'd say not. I look at it this way; if a drone enters our airspace, you have no idea what it's intent is. If it were spying while in our airspace, do we allow it to transmit it's findings back to its home nations, findings which may be detrimental to our nation? I say no. It's kinda like the fleeing felon rule "ok, they're running away, is it reasonable to believe that they will be back or use whatever they took to harm us in the immediate future?" Yes? Put two in his back.

Moral - stay the **** out of other people's house/airspace.... or at least don't get caught.

 

[T.Lex]

Cynical thought of the morning: Iran's escalation happened too soon.

Trump will want to draw this out in a slow burn so that the peak drama happens next summer through the election.

The riskier gamble would be to have a relatively short, but intense, episode that can be spun into a conquering-hero narrative.

 

[T.Lex]

I'd say not. I look at it this way; if a drone enters our airspace, you have no idea what it's intent is. If it were spying while in our airspace, do we allow it to transmit it's findings back to its home nations, findings which may be detrimental to our nation? I say no. It's kinda like the fleeing felon rule "ok, they're running away, is it reasonable to believe that they will be back or use whatever they took to harm us in the immediate future?" Yes? Put two in his back.

Moral - stay the **** out of other people's house/airspace.... or at least don't get caught.

Reasonable position.

But, there's not really a fleeing-felon rule in international relations (at least not one that I'm familiar with). You can't blow up other people's stuff in international waters/airspace. They're allowed to be there. Doesn't really matter where they were before that.

I'm just saying we have a plausible justification for retaliation, if it really was in international airspace when it was hit. Some reports even say that it was in international airspace when the launch happened. In that case, Iran should've just let it go. Well, unless it wanted to escalate and test us.

Iran does have, as you sketch out, a moral justification to present to their own citizens.

 

[Trigger Time]

U.S. Drone in international airspace shot down by Iran, when theyknow that right now they shouldn't even be farting in public with all their other recent bad behavior.
Yeah Irans about to get ****ed up and I cant wait to see it. Needed to happen like 30 years ago. Trump wont take this.
Things are currently moving in our military. And im not talking Navy.

 

[T.Lex]

I hope for 2 things:
- that a consensus emerges among the professional diplomats and warfighters about an appropriate response;
- that Trump follows that consensus.

 

[BugI02]

Is that what you'd call it? I'd call it something else. While I'm not a warhawk, and certainly not in the Bolton camp, downing US military equipment in international airspace, should require a firm military response.

If you're not a war hawk, why are you banging the gong now? This is not the first time Iran has fired on a US drone, nor is it the first time one has been shot down by their proxies

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/wor...oil-tanker-attacks-gulf-of-oman-a4168306.html
Gulf of Oman oil tanker attack: US accuses Iran of trying to shoot down surveillance drone during suspected attacks

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zo...rone-near-tankers-hours-before-attacks-report
Iran Tried To Shoot Down U.S. Reaper Drone Near Tankers Hours Before Attacks: Report


IMO you see few good options for Trump here (as do most people) and are salivating over a chance to once again criticize him if things go wrong. Personally I would launch a feint towards the revolutionary guard and under that cover and at the same time really punish the Houthis. It would serve as a return blow to Iran as well as underline that they are vulnerable in many places - and the Houthis have already shot down a drone previous to this incident

 

[Kutnupe14]

U.S. Drone in international airspace shot down by Iran, when theyknow that right now they shouldn't even be farting in public with all their other recent bad behavior.
Yeah Irans about to get ****ed up and I cant wait to see it. Needed to happen like 30 years ago. Trump wont take this.
Things are currently moving in our military. And im not talking Navy.

I'm unsure. It's one thing to bomb Syria, quite another to bomb Iran - which, regionally, has quite a bit more capabilities.

 

[Kutnupe14]

If you're not a war hawk, why are you banging the gong now? This is not the first time Iran has fired on a US drone, nor is it the first time one has been shot down by their proxies

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/wor...oil-tanker-attacks-gulf-of-oman-a4168306.html
Gulf of Oman oil tanker attack: US accuses Iran of trying to shoot down surveillance drone during suspected attacks

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zo...rone-near-tankers-hours-before-attacks-report
Iran Tried To Shoot Down U.S. Reaper Drone Near Tankers Hours Before Attacks: Report


IMO you see few good options for Trump here (as do most people) and are salivating over a chance to once again criticize him if things go wrong. Personally I would launch a feint towards the revolutionary guard and under that cover and at the same time really punish the Houthis. It would serve as a return blow to Iran as well as underline that they are vulnerable in many places - and the Houthis have already shot down a drone previous to this incident

I think there's a distinction between "trying" to shoot down a drone, and actually "doing" it. And of course my position is contingent upon knowing if the drone was ever in Iranian airspace. If it was, I can't fault Iran for the response. It it was never in Iran, then I would support a measured military response.

 

[Trigger Time]

I'm unsure. It's one thing to bomb Syria, quite another to bomb Iran - which, regionally, has quite a bit more capabilities.

Na. Iran would fall quickly. Its countries that may come to their aid like russia and china that ive always been worried about. I mean I think we could take them too, its just gonna be a world war in that case.
Its probably about time again.

 

[T.Lex]

It seems to me that a modern alignment of Russia, Iran, and China would fare better than the historical alignment of Germany, Italy, and Japan.

At perhaps greater cost than ever seen before.

 

[Ziggidy]

It seems to me that a modern alignment of Russia, Iran, and China would fare better than the historical alignment of Germany, Italy, and Japan.

At perhaps greater cost than ever seen before.

I think a major piece might be slacking; USA patriotism. That alone would add greatly to the cost.....in many ways.

 

[T.Lex]

I think a major piece might be slacking; USA patriotism. That alone would add greatly to the cost.....in many ways.

Agreed, sorta.

I don't think patriotism is the problem. I think complacency is. Our populace isn't as motivated to get things done as it once was. There's very little appetite for sacrifice.

 

[Kutnupe14]

I think a major piece might be slacking; USA patriotism. That alone would add greatly to the cost.....in many ways.

I'm not quite sure of what you're saying here. What would patriotism do, to add to the cost? You some examples?

 

[KellyinAvon]

1: Who let the Navy fly global Hawks?

2: 10 years ago? That would’ve been a U-2.

3: The **** is about to get serious. A squadron of F-15Es are in the UAE.

 

[BugI02]

I find it significant that the Houthis were successful, since they until recently have been light on sophisticated capabilities; and that the Iranians fired on a drone before the attacks on the tankers and now have downed one. Speculation is that the Houthi downing and the pre-tanker shot were by MANPADs and that they were modified to extend the operational envelope they could target

If the reaper drones are fully armed, it seems they might be able to respond to an attack quickly and target the battery or squad that fired on them, which I think would be much more acceptable than some strike after the fact. Not sure what the max range of a hellfire is but should be at least comparable to a shoulder fired heat seeker

 

[T.Lex]

I just saw a fake news report that POTUS offered that Iran might've made a mistake. That's a stretch, even for the MSM.

Heck, Iran admits shooting it down. How can it be a mistake?

Can't wait to see what Trump actually said....