The Nuclear Iran Situation

[Kutnupe14]

I was thinking about WWII and such. Back then it "appeared" that the USA had the backing of the citizens. "Pro USA all the way" mentality. I believe as T.Lex stated, sacrifice was a given. That's what I call patriotism (call it what you wish). Without that ingredient, it may have cost many more lives and many more dollars. People today are less willing to stand and fight for what is right, necessary. NO I am not looking for a war and pray it never happens, but if it does - the decision will be to sacrifice what I must to insure a victory for what is right.

I believe the last administration caused an increase in the deceleration of patriotism (willingness to sacrifice) and it is costing us dearly already. With a war, it will greatly increase our costs not only with money but with lives. There are those who openly say they want death to America. If it came to a stand off, I will do whatever I can to make sure my country wins and preserves my freedom.

Our family may have its internal arguments and fights, but never try to hurt my family!

Not sure if people feel like America is their family. That's what I mean.....

Ah gotcha, thanks for the clarification.

 

[Kutnupe14]

You're right. We could knock the caviar out of him and he knows it. He also knows that Trump isnt a [kitty] like Obama.

This remains to be seen, does it not?

 

[IndyDave1776]

This remains to be seen, does it not?

In 2 1/2 years, no world apology tour, enough fortitude to address self-defeating trade deals including with China--an idea that struck terror into the hearts of most everyone else on both parties as evidenced by all the pants-wetting about destroying our economy, he has at least addressed our problems with North Korea as opposed to simply giving the NorKs what they want and hope they behave themselves. It isnt proven out yet but at least he is trying. He was adequately assertive with Syria without either getting us dragged into a war or facilitating another Arab Spring-style takeover by terrorists.

That said, he is already doing better than Obama and Kerry giving away much for nothing and doing everything this side of sucking the Ayatollah's dick.

 

[Ark]

Breaking now....

"United States was set to bomb Iranian missile systems and radars, but strikes have been put on hold."

Perhaps an unexpected logistical issue, or some kind of information coming in that changed the situation. Maybe Iran is rethinking how bad they want to lose their fancy Russian anti-air systems. They're gonna want those when the day comes that Israeli fighters appear on the horizon with bunker-busters under the wings.

 

[Kutnupe14]

In 2 1/2 years, no world apology tour, enough fortitude to address self-defeating trade deals including with China--an idea that struck terror into the hearts of most everyone else on both parties as evidenced by all the pants-wetting about destroying our economy, he has at least addressed our problems with North Korea as opposed to simply giving the NorKs what they want and hope they behave themselves. It isnt proven out yet but at least he is trying. He was adequately assertive with Syria without either getting us dragged into a war or facilitating another Arab Spring-style takeover by terrorists.

That said, he is already doing better than Obama and Kerry giving away much for nothing and doing everything this side of sucking the Ayatollah's dick.

C'mon Indydave. Iran gleefully said they knocked out the drone. We say it was in international airspace, and it was unjustified in shooting it down. The president sat in the Oval Office and made excuses for Iran, saying it was a "mistake," and that he didn't think it was "intentional." I was literally at a loss for words.

Russia has been harassing the hell out of our ships and aircraft
North Korea doesn't have to worry about a particular military exercise the president canceled, because it was "provocative"... and they're still testing missiles.
Saudi Arabia killed and hacked up a journalist.

How can you justify giving this president a pass? He seems to be giving away a fair bit for nothing.

 

[IndyDave1776]

C'mon Indydave. Iran gleefully said they knocked out the drone. We say it was in international airspace, and it was unjustified in shooting it down. The president sat in the Oval Office and made excuses for Iran, saying it was a "mistake," and that he didn't think it was "intentional." I was literally at a loss for words.

Russia has been harassing the hell out of our ships and aircraft
North Korea doesn't have to worry about a particular military exercise the president canceled, because it was "provocative"... and they're still testing missiles.
Saudi Arabia killed and hacked up a journalist.

How can you justify giving this president a pass? He seems to be giving away a fair bit for nothing.

I will concede that you have some good points. Some of these things are nothing new. Others are. I would at least wait until we are closer to the 8 year mark before conceding he is in the same zip code with his predecessor.

 

[NKBJ]

India is sending it's navy.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Brits say they, too, will not fly near Strait of Hormuz.

Airlines that will avoid Iranian airspace:

- United Airlines
- Qantas
- KLM
- Lufthansa
- British Airways
- UAE

Iranian state television has released first images of US drone that was shot down. Iranian general says his country's military warned US drone several times before shooting it down... is that like yelling at a toaster?

Angela Merkel calls for diplomatic solution between Iran and the United States

 

[T.Lex]

The ramp up, then stand down, is interesting. I'm skeptical of anonymous sources calling it "cold feet." That's one answer. There may be other reasons. Like intel that Iran's capabilities are better than we thought and were prepared.

This is one that we may have to wait until the books get written to know anything close to the truth on.

But, it could be one meow in the kitty column.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Iran claims it could have shot down US military aircraft with 35 personnel on board, but decided to not to after the plane responded to warnings.

"Decided not to".... because that would be the end of Iran.

 

[KellyinAvon]

Would the reaction by POTUS been different if it was a manned aircraft? The U-2 is still around (it was supposed to be retired in Fiscal Year 2008, I was at HQ Air Combat Command for that goat-rope but that's for another thread), we know it is manned and can be shot down.

When the unmanned aircraft were coming on-line the emphasis was always on giving commanders an option to not put human life at risk if not necessary. We can buy more hardware, and with aircraft some were coded "attrition reserve", well for obvious reasons.

 

[Kutnupe14]

Would the reaction by POTUS been different if it was a manned aircraft? The U-2 is still around (it was supposed to be retired in Fiscal Year 2008, I was at HQ Air Combat Command for that goat-rope but that's for another thread), we know it is manned and can be shot down.

When the unmanned aircraft were coming on-line the emphasis was always on giving commanders an option to not put human life at risk if not necessary. We can buy more hardware, and with aircraft some were coded "attrition reserve", well for obvious reasons.

I think that's a valid question for both sides. Would the Iranians have fired on the aircraft if it were manned?

 

[Kutnupe14]

The ramp up, then stand down, is interesting. I'm skeptical of anonymous sources calling it "cold feet." That's one answer. There may be other reasons. Like intel that Iran's capabilities are better than we thought and were prepared.

This is one that we may have to wait until the books get written to know anything close to the truth on.

But, it could be one meow in the kitty column.

After we pulled out of the nuclear deal, and with the president exchanging love letters with Putin and Kim, all while ramping up the rhetoric concerning Iran, they would be fools not to gear up for the worst.

 

[T.Lex]

The bigger question is how are we underestimating their tracking abilities. At least superficially, it looks like they can reliable "see" planes that we didn't really think they could. (The 35 passenger plane is different, that's probably AWACS of some sort.)

Also, our history includes episodes in which we lost military personnel to attacks by potential foes (and sometimes allies) and we didn't respond very forcefully, if at all.

International relations is complicated.

 

[T.Lex]

According to different sources, Trump did alert the Iranians that there would be an attack - so it might've been a headfake.

The logistics of that are tricky, in that we don't have a direct relationship with Iran, but use proxies. So, the content of the conversations will probably come out sooner rather than later. And, if Iran stroked Trump, they might've gotten him to call it off. Trump himself will probably come out with that narrative, if it happened.

If Iran's reaction was more like "Bring it" then he backed down, we've lost credibility.

Really, the 24/48 hour rule should still be on the table. The pundits will pundify along their ideological lines, of course, but the next couple days could be interesting. Particularly today, around 5pm EDT. (That's usually when POTUSs do things that they don't want people to pay too much attention to.)

 

[Thor]

The picture of the purported RQ-4 that the Iranians released was actually one of a Pred shot down over Yemen a few years ago. The upshot being that they couldn't snap a photo of a plane over international waters.

I don't think they have a good grasp on what our options are or how we will respond; but then when you are a fanatic who wants to export terror everywhere so you can create more fanatics your grasp on actual reality may be tenuous anyway.

At this point they are kicking a lot of sand in the faces of other beach goers. But it's really kind of like a little league team challenging a pro team to a game of ball and kicking and screaming till they get their way. They have no navy worth speaking of, their AF is composed of barely flying remnants of something you could once call a force.

I'm expecting them to continue spewing hate and acting irrationally until someone gives them the beating they are asking for.

 

[Thor]

According to different sources, Trump did alert the Iranians that there would be an attack - so it might've been a headfake.

The logistics of that are tricky, in that we don't have a direct relationship with Iran, but use proxies. So, the content of the conversations will probably come out sooner rather than later. And, if Iran stroked Trump, they might've gotten him to call it off. Trump himself will probably come out with that narrative, if it happened.

If Iran's reaction was more like "Bring it" then he backed down, we've lost credibility.

Really, the 24/48 hour rule should still be on the table. The pundits will pundify along their ideological lines, of course, but the next couple days could be interesting. Particularly today, around 5pm EDT. (That's usually when POTUSs do things that they don't want people to pay too much attention to.)

I think that is one of the outcomes they are looking for, it will make them look strong to their people to rally support. The other outcome they are probably looking for is a disproportionate response short of regime change that would also allow them to rally the peoples support. They are looking for someway to free up their economy before the starving masses come to roast an Ayatollah or two.

 

[T.Lex]

Yeah, and the one part of the Order of Battle that gives me pause is the IADS. A measured response that hits that would make a ton of sense IMO, without feeding too much propaganda.

 

[Kutnupe14]

The picture of the purported RQ-4 that the Iranians released was actually one of a Pred shot down over Yemen a few years ago. The upshot being that they couldn't snap a photo of a plane over international waters.

I don't think they have a good grasp on what our options are or how we will respond; but then when you are a fanatic who wants to export terror everywhere so you can create more fanatics your grasp on actual reality may be tenuous anyway.

At this point they are kicking a lot of sand in the faces of other beach goers. But it's really kind of like a little league team challenging a pro team to a game of ball and kicking and screaming till they get their way. They have no navy worth speaking of, their AF is composed of barely flying remnants of something you could once call a force.

I'm expecting them to continue spewing hate and acting irrationally until someone gives them the beating they are asking for.

I gotta challenge this. What makes the Iranians (specifically those in charge) "fanatics" with a "tenuous" grasp on reality? The current Iranian government is approaching 40 years in power, as an enemy to the United States. There are plenty of other nations that can't make that claim. I attribute this to them not getting directly involved in conflict (pref. proxies), their potential ability to disrupt the oil trade, and staying in the good graces of Russia. That seems pretty attached to reality IMO.
And while you are correct about Iran's military, they are one of the Middle East regional powers, with Turkey, Israel, and Egypt. They don't need an overwhelming military to light a powerkeg in the region, nor create an economic crisis by sending the price of oil skyrocketing.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

More sanctions were added to Iran