The Coming Crash in Ammunition Prices

[VERT]

When the hoarders stop buying and supply becomes available we will see sales and promotional pricing. Then the guys like me will be buying it up and sending it down range. This will result in increased demand. Once the sale ends the price returns to normal. If ammo gets cheaper then reloading supplies I will stack it deep and wide.

 

[BogWalker]

Was at Greensburg Rural King. Piles of every caliber they routinely carry except for .22. Got two boxes of Magtech .45 ACP for $17.99 each. They are usually $19.99 but there was a 10% off sale on all ammo. Not only were display shelves full of ammo, but there were at least a dozen unopened cases on the lower shelf.

This has been my experience at Rural King for months. Wal-Mart has had a lot better stock as well. Supply is definitely getting better, and there is a great potential for market glut. Excess supply = lower prices.

I don't think we'll see ammo as low as it once was due to a crap economy and inflation. Still, I think it will lower considerably.

 

[Big Guy]

It's just like anything else, sooner or later supply will catch up with demand. I really don't think prices will come down all that much though, but seeing is believing.

 

[chef1231]

never going to happen just like gas prices now. They know we will pay

 

[philo]

Gun salesman of the year is so passe`. Obama's going for ammo salesman of the year now. The prices won't go down - probably up. He's gone on record as having said that the driving force behind "all the mass shootings" is the ready availability of ammo and peoples ability to stock their basements with thousands of rounds.

The 2nd amendments speaks to gun rights, not ammo rights. He's planning an end run around us, and rough times are coming.

Have I mentioned that I'm a horrible pessimist.

 

[Gluemanz28]

I went to Walmart today to buy some thick sliced bacon. They had it for a $1 per pound. I then went to check out the ammo cabinet. They had 550 round boxes of 22LR for $15 per box. I decided that I didn't really need the bacon or ammo so I left and went to my group therapy session LA (Liars Anonymous)
I really did, seriously I really did

 

[Shootin'IN]

I'm pretty sure the price on 5.45x39 surplus won't drop......but if it does I'll just buy more.
If I can find space for another case or four! LOL

 

[Gluemanz28]

Build a bunker

 

[billt]

AR-15, 30 round magazines are down to $7.75 each in quantity. After Newtown they were all but unobtainable. More political scare tactics that went nowhere. Ammo will be no different. Demand will fall through the floor, while supply will be busting out of the roofs of the warehouses, along with the peoples closets. Especially after the Dems get pasted in the November elections.

https://www.wideners.com/itemdetail.cfm?item_id=100000571&dir=625|1056|1058

 

[VERT]

The price of AR mags or Glock mags never really changed at the manufacturer/wholesale level. It was simply that gougers bought boxes of them to make a quick buck. So short term. Ammo prices on the other hand have been increasing. People will claim price reduction when availability at the store front returns. Why? Because there is no reason to go pay gun show/black market/private transaction prices for a good that can easily be purchased at the store. Again we set the price.

 

[bigelowe]

I buy whenever I find it, hoping it drops, I will buy a bigger safe if need be.

 

[billt]

People will claim price reduction when availability at the store front returns. Why?

Very simple. Because people cannot keep buying every round of ammunition produced forever.......... At ANY price. There is no need to. If someone told you people would be paying $75.00 a brick for .22's 3 years ago, you would have said they were nuts. Take away the availability and plant political fears in their heads, and you've got it. When the availability returns in quantity demand will drop, and prices will plummet along with it. The panic will subside because there is nothing further to drive it. Add to all of it a horrible economy and a high unemployment rate. In short people are going to be finding more important things to buy, with what little money they have available to buy it. "Flippers" will go away like the "day traders" did after the dot com collapse. There will be nothing to flip.

As I said, the bulk of this ammo is not being shot. It is being hoarded by panic stricken buyers that think the ammunition sky is falling, and will never again return to anything normal. That's ridiculous because there is nothing to support that thinking. This whole crisis has been feeding off itself. Demand and availability drive prices, not what people are "used to paying". You have hundreds of millions of rounds stockpiled at scalpers prices in closets across the country. At some point this lunacy is going to stop. People cannot live in panic mode forever. They'll run out of both money and fear.

People want to believe prices are never going to come down because they paid too much to begin with. They have to justify their unsound, foolish spending by trying to bull themselves for running with the sheep right to slaughter. And lets face it, paying damn near 9 MM prices for .22's is unsound regardless of how you want to look at it. Also remember, .22 ammo is something many shooters accumulate over the years. It is something many of them just do over time. I have well over 50,000 rounds on hand that I've purchased for well under $10.00 a brick. I knew when I bought it that it would get shot up sooner or later. I'm not alone. There is just too much ammo out there being hoarded, and far more being produced for this to continue. This is much like the housing market, which people also though would last forever. It didn't because simple economics would not support it. Neither will this.

 

[billt]

I buy whenever I find it, hoping it drops, I will buy a bigger safe if need be.

You, and others like you are the reason prices are still staying high, and availability low. I'm not criticizing you for what you're doing. After all it's a free country the last time I looked. You are just a good example of why this is lasting longer than many predicted it would. As I said, the situation is feeding off itself. Under normal conditions you wouldn't be doing this. And you won't be doing it forever. Neither will everyone else.

 

[Hotdoger]

"You, and others like you are the reason prices are still staying high, and availability low. I'm not criticizing you for what you're doing. After all it's a free country the last time I looked. You are just a good example of why this is lasting longer than many predicted it would. As I said, the situation is feeding off itself. Under normal conditions you wouldn't be doing this. And you won't be doing it forever. Neither will everyone else. "

I am waiting on buying gas till the price comes down. Guess my tanks will stay empty. Wish the gas hoarders would stop causing the problems!

 

[billt]

I am waiting on buying gas till the price comes down. Guess my tanks will stay empty. Wish the gas hoarders would stop causing the problems!

Poor analogy. No one is hoarding gasoline. Ammunition is not a necessity like food or gas. You can live without $75.00 a brick .22 ammo, or ANY ammo for that matter. You have to eat and get to work, or else you'll be starving out on the street. And furthermore, using your example why isn't gas $5.50 and $6.00+ a gallon like it is in Europe? People are paying it, and have been for years. A barrel of oil in Europe comes out of the same well as a barrel sold here. If your thinking was based on any fact we would still be paying $12,000.00 for 42" Plasma TV's.

 

[VERT]

$75 is not and never was the price for a brick of .22 ammo. I think that is what we are disagreeing about. Again $75 is not the price. I paid about $50 for a thousand rounds at WalMart last week. So $25-$35 is what a brick of .22 costs. We just can't find it right now. I do agree that availability will return and the $50-$75 dollar artificial pricing will soon end. But keep in mind that it was not long ago .22 was $10 a brick. Basically manufacturer/wholesale/retail store front price for ammo has gone up 2.5x in the last 6 years. It has gone the way of $1.50 gas.

I also agree that it won't be long before the ammo flippers begin liquidating their stock. They will have to do so at a break even at best.

 

[rhino]

$15 has been the price I've been seeing on 50rd boxes of 9mm for at least a year.

Now I'm seeing prices down to $12.95, with availability increasing.

 

[VERT]

$15 has been the price I've been seeing on 50rd boxes of 9mm for at least a year.

Now I'm seeing prices down to $12.95, with availability increasing.

Yes. But it depends on what brand you are buying for $12.95. That may have always been the price but it wasn't on the shelf. For example maybe PMC or Federal Champion or TulAmmo is $12.95. Remington, WWB or AE might be $14.95. The less expensive brands would run out first and not be available because most consumers don't know the difference or don't care. (I am one of them. Plinking ammo is just that.).

Also I think we will see promotional pricing again in the near future. Availability is back but not yet to the levels we enjoyed just a couple years ago.

 

[KG1]

When the prices come down a bit and availability becomes plentiful again i'm gonna start buying and hoarding like a SOB.

 

[dak109]

What I still can't figure out is why 22? I know there are theories about new shooters, but really 22? It is not a good self defense round, I figured most new shooters would go the way of self defense. Zombie round? Maybe, if suppressed ( (I subscribe to the fun Zombie craze). Suppressor legal hunting now in Indiana? Too new, new players to that game are still waiting on tax stamps. TEOTWAWKI? This is the only plausible one I can come up with. Who doesn't own at least one 22? But really, if it is that bad, how many critters vs how many rounds already out there will there be? I think I will start hoarding squirrels. When the time comes I will barter them for 22.