The 2020 General Election Thread

[chipbennett]

Really? Pretty sure Obama vacated the White House.

Not before organizing a soft coup attempt.

(And he's talking about the #Resist types, who have spent four years asserting #NotMyPresident.)

 

[T.Lex]

Not before organizing a soft coup attempt.

(And he's talking about the #Resist types, who have spent four years asserting #NotMyPresident.)

Balanced, as noted by Jetta, by the birthers on the right.

The phenomenon, or even the rhetoric, is not particularly new. There's just an added intensity with the pandemic and BLM issues.

 

[printcraft]

Balanced, as noted by Jetta, by the birthers on the right.

The phenomenon, or even the rhetoric, is not particularly new. There's just an added intensity with the pandemic and BLM issues.

 

[T.Lex]

In actual election info, Biden leads Trump by 8 in Michigan, 7 in Wisconsin, 6 in Pennsylvania, and Ohio is a tie. (fivethirtyeight.com)

We're certainly in uncharted territory in terms of measuring any virtual bumps from virtual conventions.

But who knows, the same storm front that rolled in 2016 might strike again.

 

[JTScribe]

Balanced, as noted by Jetta, by the birthers on the right.

The phenomenon, or even the rhetoric, is not particularly new. There's just an added intensity with the pandemic and BLM issues.

Balance implies there was an equal number of them. Birthers were always a narrow bunch of crazies amplified by the press to make people who opposed Obama look like fools.

Case in point, I once told someone I didn't like Obama because of his Keynesian economics.

"He was born in Hawaii, not Kenya!"

 

[Alpo]

LOL

And, for the record, Trump is at least 3 times the Keynesian that Obama was.

 

[two70]

In actual election info, Biden leads Trump by 8 in Michigan, 7 in Wisconsin, 6 in Pennsylvania, and Ohio is a tie. (fivethirtyeight.com)

We're certainly in uncharted territory in terms of measuring any virtual bumps from virtual conventions.

But who knows, the same storm front that rolled in 2016 might strike again.

I think Hillary is already ahead of you in laying the "They stole the election" groundwork, LOL.


For all the talk of Biden supposedly being in the lead, Democrats sure aren't acting like it.

 

[Ingomike]

Would you disagree, Bug?

What does Trump have on his list that trumps it?

He got a tax cut, but didn't get his follow on spending cuts... and... well, I'll let others list his "greatest hits" so far.

Not before organizing a soft coup attempt.

(And he's talking about the #Resist types, who have spent four years asserting #NotMyPresident.)

Balanced, as noted by Jetta, by the birthers on the right.

The phenomenon, or even the rhetoric, is not particularly new. There's just an added intensity with the pandemic and BLM issues.

How can you balance the "soft coup" attempt in which the FBI director and national security head of an opposition administration are involved with mostly private citizens and a few representatives making a claim?

 

[T.Lex]

I think Hillary is already ahead of you in laying the "They stole the election" groundwork, LOL.

Well, she's still lagging behind Trump's rhetoric on the issue. He started weeks ago (at least)!

For all the talk of Biden supposedly being in the lead, Democrats sure aren't acting like it.

You be Frank, and I'll be Earnest.

Biden is the underdog overall. This is still Trump's election to lose. And, he might just accomplish it.

 

[actaeon277]

Well, she's still lagging behind Trump's rhetoric on the issue. He started weeks ago (at least)!


You be Frank, and I'll be Earnest.

Biden is the underdog overall. This is still Trump's election to lose. And, he might just accomplish it.

I thought Biden was leading in all the polls?

 

[T.Lex]

I thought Biden was leading in all the polls?

Welcome to 2016.

 

[BugI02]

I don't know. What legislation did Trump get passed when he had both the House and Senate under Republican control that was bigger than Obamacare? He didn't say better.

The tax changes are the biggest one I can think of, and I would say Obamacare was bigger than that. Is there something I am forgetting?

Yes, we absolutely are!




Quit trying to move the goalpost, Bug.




See, that's not so hard, is it?

Trump got us to be a fossil fuel exporter. Or, you can say Trump instituted massive tariffs.
Both big things he accomplished from his agenda.

Do you ever look beyond the [STRIKE]front sight[/STRIKE] spoon at other posts and context before you pull the trigger?

 

[T.Lex]

I thought Biden was leading in all the polls?

For reference:

Michigan, HRC +5 at the beginning of September.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State..._United_States_presidential_election#Michigan

Wisconsin, HRC +2 (basically tied) at the beginning of September.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State...United_States_presidential_election#Wisconsin

Pennsylvania, HRC +9 or so at the beginning of September.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State...ted_States_presidential_election#Pennsylvania

 

[T.Lex]

Aggregating the info a bit, assuming Ohio goes to Trump (which is certainly reasonable).

PA:
2016 - Trump -9
2020 - Trump -6

So let's say it breaks for Trump again.

MI:
2016 - Trump -5 (actual margin for Trump, less than 1%)
2020 - Trump -8

So, let's say MI breaks for Biden, because Trump has more ground to make up this cycle.

WI:
2016 - Trump -2 (actual margin for Trump, again less than 1%)
2020 - Trump -6

So, same thing. Let's say WI breaks for Biden.

That puts it back again on Florida.

2016 - Other than an outlier +7 for HRC, it was generally within the margin of error and the actual margin for Trump was a bit over 1%.
2020 - Biden +6

So, Joe's task is to flip MI, WI and FL. I'm not sure there's any other path for him. The first 2 might be doable. That last one, I'm not so sure.

That's one element as to why I think Trump is still the frontrunner.

 

[Leadeye]

I'm stocking up extra for the election and inviting both sons to stay for a few days, if President Trump wins I think it's going to be worse than the MLK assassination. I remember those riots as a young man, random killings by emotional people and destruction. In 2020 lots of people will be wound unbelievably tight by election night and when they don't get what they want the negative energy will sweep over the country. Things will quite down in time, just like 1968, but you don't want to be one of those people that are caught outside.

I remember the news interviewing a black man who had killed his white neighbor that he knew in a fit of negative emotion. He wasn't really lucid, just kept crying and saying that they had killed his King. This from something that came as a complete surprise as opposed to weeks of intense frenzied stories from media bringing people to a raw emotional edge.

Protect your own and don't be a statistic.

 

[JettaKnight]

Do you ever look beyond the [STRIKE]front sight[/STRIKE] spoon at other posts and context before you pull the trigger?

Now I know what kind of bug you are - a tick!

[video=youtube;4iGSAFjzBd8]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4iGSAFjzBd8[/video]

 

[actaeon277]

I'm stocking up extra for the election and inviting both sons to stay for a few days, if President Trump wins I think it's going to be worse than the MLK assassination. I remember those riots as a young man, random killings by emotional people and destruction. In 2020 lots of people will be wound unbelievably tight by election night and when they don't get what they want the negative energy will sweep over the country. Things will quite down in time, just like 1968, but you don't want to be one of those people that are caught outside.

I remember the news interviewing a black man who had killed his white neighbor that he knew in a fit of negative emotion. He wasn't really lucid, just kept crying and saying that they had killed his King. This from something that came as a complete surprise as opposed to weeks of intense frenzied stories from media bringing people to a raw emotional edge.

Protect your own and don't be a statistic.

Why do you limit it to just "if Trump wins"?

 

[actaeon277]

For reference:

Michigan, HRC +5 at the beginning of September.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State..._United_States_presidential_election#Michigan

Wisconsin, HRC +2 (basically tied) at the beginning of September.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State...United_States_presidential_election#Wisconsin

Pennsylvania, HRC +9 or so at the beginning of September.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State...ted_States_presidential_election#Pennsylvania

Better check your sarcasm detector. Might be a bit broken.

 

[actaeon277]

Republican Convention Got SIX TIMES More Livestream Viewers Than Democrats
[video=youtube;Rv7gbZrhMxI]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rv7gbZrhMxI[/video]

 

[Ingomike]

Not before organizing a soft coup attempt.

(And he's talking about the #Resist types, who have spent four years asserting #NotMyPresident.)

Aggregating the info a bit, assuming Ohio goes to Trump (which is certainly reasonable).

PA:
2016 - Trump -9
2020 - Trump -6

So let's say it breaks for Trump again.

MI:
2016 - Trump -5 (actual margin for Trump, less than 1%)
2020 - Trump -8

So, let's say MI breaks for Biden, because Trump has more ground to make up this cycle.

WI:
2016 - Trump -2 (actual margin for Trump, again less than 1%)
2020 - Trump -6

So, same thing. Let's say WI breaks for Biden.

That puts it back again on Florida.

2016 - Other than an outlier +7 for HRC, it was generally within the margin of error and the actual margin for Trump was a bit over 1%.
2020 - Biden +6

So, Joe's task is to flip MI, WI and FL. I'm not sure there's any other path for him. The first 2 might be doable. That last one, I'm not so sure.

That's one element as to why I think Trump is still the frontrunner.

Not sure the sources of your data but likely final polls before the election vs. current polls will add additional variables. If one could find the late August polling to compare to now that would be interesting