The 2020 General Election Thread

[jamil]

Pretty much. From what I'm seeing/hearing:

1. Youth vote is all but non-existent (as in, single digits, but being modeled as 25%+. This is possibly due to college campuses being empty.)
2. Black vote is down significantly (and no "souls to the polls" due to Covid)
3. D-R EV split is way down from historical norms
4. A significant percentage of R EV is from new/first-time voters. R VBM for usual voters is way down, due to VBM fears
5. R vote is not apparently cannibalizing their ED vote, but in several battleground states (FL, NC, PA, for example), D is heavily cannibalizing their ED vote
6. D ED vote is expected to be way down, due to Covid fears

And it also appears that polling models are generally predicting undecideds/independents breaking heavily for Biden, which is based on... well, nothing, really.

Without MAJOR changes to current VBM/EVIP trends, all of the following appear to be true:

1. FL is Trump's, and it won't be close (comfortable, to as high as 4-5%)
2. PA is Trump's, but a a safe, but by no means huge, margin (right now, likely 2-3%)
3. NC is Trump's, by a more comfortable margin than 2016 (right now, trending to 2-3%; much depends on the next week)
4. AZ is Trump's, safely
5. WI is Trump's (R is absolutely killing D in EV, and the needed D voting blocs are thus far nonexistent)
6. MI is Trump's (this one is very close, as far as I can tell thus far)
7. MN is is significant danger of flipping to Trump. (This is a sleeper flip.)
8. NV is on its heels, but not as close
9. NM is starting to be talked about as being in play

Trump's ground game/GOTV machine is downright impressive.

You haven't accounted for all the ballot's [STRIKE]fabricated[/STRIKE] "found" in the back of the election worker's Subarus in every key district. I don't know why it's always in the back of a Subaru. You'd think given the #1 selling vehicle in America, random chance would say they'd have to find some of those missing boxes in a F150.

 

[Alpo]

You haven't accounted for all the ballot's [STRIKE]fabricated[/STRIKE] "found" in the back of the election worker's Subarus in every key district. I don't know why it's always in the back of a Subaru. You'd think given the #1 selling vehicle in America, random chance would say they'd have to find some of those missing boxes in a F150.

Ballots not delivered to customers, you mean?

 

[foszoe]

It just makes for neater appearance. Once you figure out what the letters mean it's actually more readable to me.

If it makes for such a neat appearance, I'm surprised that a loquacious guy such as yourself hasn't adopted the practice. :-)

 

[Alpo]

If it makes for such a neat appearance, I'm surprised that a loquacious guy such as yourself hasn't adopted the practice. :-)

That would be great. Would save me a lot of time.

Jamil: comment 1,376.

Me: No

Jamil: comment 24,897

Me: LMAO. Some guys really know how to tell a joke.

And the woid for today is. loquacious

 

[foszoe]

That would be great. Would save me a lot of time.

Jamil: comment 1,376.

Me: No

Jamil: comment 24,897

Me: LMAO. Some guys really know how to tell a joke.

So I see you're a jailbird

 

[Alpo]

Or just old and remember jokes that make no sense to millennials.

 

[chipbennett]

To give an example of what I'm talking about, following EV models: Florida

Models predicted that Democrats needed an EV lead of at least 663,000 in order to have a chance of fending off Republican EDIP voting. Democrats use VBM for EV. Republicans primarily use EVIP (in-person early voting) for EV. As it stands as of today, Republicans have an EVIP lead of 135,000, which is...unheard of. After factoring in VBM and EVIP turnout, the overall Democrat EV lead needed to overcome Republican EDIP voting up to 782,000. (Spoiler alert: that ain't happening.)

Democrat strongholds are just not showing up/giving Democrats the EV firewall. Miami-Dade is only D+1.5%. Palm Beach is only D+2.9%.

Another example: North Carolina

In 2008, Democrats had an EV advantage of 21%. Obama won by 0.5%
In 2012, Democrats had an EV advantage of 16%. Romney won by 2%
In 2016, Democrats had an EV advantage of 16%. Trump won by 3.5%

In 2020, as of today, Democrat EV advantage is down to 14.2%.

(Democrats tend to sandbag early thanks to VBM, and then Republicans close somewhat with EVIP. So, that number is likely, but not guaranteed, to continue to close between now and election day.)

One of the main variables in this sort of modeling/prediction is change in voter registration, which is why Biden has an almost impossible path to winning Pennsylvania. Trump won in 2016 by 44K votes (0.5%). Since then, Republicans have netted about 200K registrations over Democrats. I'll try to pull EV numbers later.

 

[foszoe]

Or just old and remember jokes that make no sense to millennials.

Horse walked into a bar. The bartender said why the long face?

 

[actaeon277]

https://www.louderwithcrowder.com/don-lemon-trump-supporter-taxes


Apparently, people want to pay less taxes, so they can buy stuff.
How evil.

 

[actaeon277]

Horse walked into a bar. The bartender said why the long face?

Just made be think of Hot Shots with Valerie Golino

 

[printcraft]

The question is important to who? To you? Certainly. To the broader electorate? Meh.

I'm a democrat happy with ACB. So are a lot of others. Catholics. Right to Life voters. Gun owners.

Joe said he'll appoint a group of scholars to make recommendations in 180 days.

You need more than that?

Dream on. You need a new set of crayolas to color that world.

That's a PUNT.

 

[jamil]

Ballots not delivered to customers, you mean?

No, I'm talking about the absentee ballots that election workers in heavy D districts kept digging out of the back of their Subarus in 2016.

Uh, how many votes do we need? Hold on, uh, give me an hour or two, I think I remember misplacing a box of ballots somewhere.

three hours later....

Oh yeah, they were in the back of my Subaru. Silly me.

 

[jamil]

If it makes for such a neat appearance, I'm surprised that a loquacious guy such as yourself hasn't adopted the practice. :-)

I write it as I think it.

 

[jamil]

That's a PUNT.

How do you get elite academic wannabes to get a hard on? Tell them you'll appoint a group of scholars to make recommendations.

Seriously though, it's not like it's a bad idea to have a group of thinkers make a list of recommendations. I'm glad Joe is implementing one of Trump's ideas. Except he's not very exact in his implementation. Trump had his group create the list before the 2016 election so that people could see the list and judge for themselves. But we'll have to wait until it's passed before we can see Joe's. Not that there's any question. The list will contain far left ideologues who think the constitution should be interpreted according to what Democrats want it to say.

 

[Alpo]

That's a PUNT.

So what? He's allowed.

 

[Twangbanger]

Biden knows the Supreme Court is staying at 9 justices. But he craves Leftist wacko support. So he won't say it.

It's ironic that Trump is accused of saying what he says to appeal to wackos, because the one making a cynical attempt to "play" to non-mainstream views here is actually foggy Joe.

 

[Twangbanger]

You haven't accounted for all the ballot's [STRIKE]fabricated[/STRIKE] "found" in the back of the election worker's Subarus in every key district. I don't know why it's always in the back of a Subaru. You'd think given the #1 selling vehicle in America, random chance would say they'd have to find some of those missing boxes in a F150.

So, VBS > VBF150...Wow! I get it now.

 

[Hatin Since 87]

Miami-Dade early voting has republicans just 300 votes behind Democrats. In miami! As of now, R’s have a 154,000 vote lead in Florida, expected to increase as most r’s vote on Election Day.

 

[printcraft]

https://i.imgur.com/Ashh9xK.mp4

I typically look around suspiciously to see who is watching me before I do my job.

But we're assured that it's on the up and up.

https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/...s-say/65-99d642a8-0769-486b-bdbb-8190822fc0ee

 

[OakRiver]

https://i.imgur.com/Ashh9xK.mp4

I typically look around suspiciously to see who is watching me before I do my job.

But we're assured that it's on the up and up.

https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/...s-say/65-99d642a8-0769-486b-bdbb-8190822fc0ee

I have to be honest with you, absent other context, it looks pretty innocent. The guy turned and looked directly at the camera, he didn't look around the room. So something could have caught his attention and he turned around.

I think we have enough concerns with how ballots are handled without stretching to include this example.