The 2020 General Election Thread

[Keith_Indy]

The thing I found interesting was that the number of ballots cast at this point almost equal the entire early voting period in 2016. We may have record turnout this time.

Film at 11:00

Yes, even the dead and your pets will be voting in some states...

but that's one of those, oh that never happens here (wink wink,) myths.

Can we agree that a well informed citizenry would not have led us to either Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Joe Biden or Kamala Harris being anywhere close to being elected for President!!! Can I get a he!! yeah!

 

[Keith_Indy]

In fairness, that is how she got her start in politics, so it would be appropriate

Old enough to have seen this on stage on first tour of album. Opened for Queen.

[video=youtube_share;69fPof-ZTnU]https://youtu.be/69fPof-ZTnU[/video]

 

[Fiddle]

Yes, even the dead and your pets will be voting in some states...

but that's one of those, oh that never happens here (wink wink,) myths.

Can we agree that a well informed citizenry would not have led us to either Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Joe Biden or Kamala Harris being anywhere close to being elected for President!!! Can I get a he!! yeah!

Vote Early Vote Often

 

[Keith_Indy]

Was anything done to improve the polling accuracy in the past 4 years?

Honestly, given the cancel culture and political violence from the left, who would willingly confirm that they are a Republican to a stranger on the phone?

(Says the former statistics tutor in college) NOPE - most are equally as bad or worse now then in 2016. Said elsewhere, didn't trust them then, or before then, or now. They involve statistics, which are easy as pi to manipulate. For instance, you can't directly compare polls of general population, registered voters, likely voters. And it's easy to hide such biases if you're good.

AGE/RACE/GENDER/EDUCATION/WORK STATUS/FAMILY STATUS are the big ones they try to adjust for.

There's a lot of people who will not respond to or accurately state their opinions to a pollster, but will F with them. That can skew things mightily, especially for rural polling.

When they take a survey of 1000 voters in Indiana, they estimate city/suburb/rural population and political split.

So let's say, they are looking for 800 respondents for city, 160 for suburbs, and 40 for rural.

So, if 20% are going to lie in any portion of this, that's going to skew things.

Instead of say, 80% FOR, 20% AGAINST, things might skew to 60/40 or worse. Compound that in every category the polls measure.

An average of all the different polls is the closest you'll come to accurate. And mostly just for trajectory.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html

As of today, the trajectory is up for Trump. The current scandals and news have to filter through the nation.

A lot of people have made up their mind.

I'm not sure how many undecideds there are left.

I can see how people might think Biden/Harris would be an improvement. I mean, the media runs cover for, carries water for, doesn't report on negative news for Democrats in office so people wouldn't hear about stuff outside the right side bubble. Policy wise I can't see how they would be better for America. They aren't going to heal peoples hearts. In fact, we already know the hatred the FAR-LEFT has for Trump, I can't imagine how upset the FAR-LEFT will be with a Biden/Harris, Harris/?? administration.

FAR-LEFT - I'm talking the hard core ANTIFA/BLM/Revolutionary Communists cadre, not the useful idiots they use as human shields.

 

[spencer rifle]

Because so much of the R vote appears to hinge on in-person voting on the actual day, I am worried that difficulties natural (storms, rain, snow, extreme cold, ice) or man-made (intimidation, terrorism, attacks on voting places, shutdown of power to polling places) will make this "problematic."

 

[printcraft]

...and the EV results/turnout thus far doesn't come anywhere close to matching any of the assumptions built into the models underlying most state polls. (Much to Democrats' chagrin.)

Early voting hasn't given the vast + dem vote they were hoping for.

I'd be glad to look at any coverage on that. Got a link?

Well, so far the stat's I've found are ballot requests and polling. They aren't supposed to count the vote until Nov 3rd.

You may be referencing this:

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/...outpacing-national-polls-giving-biden-an-edge




STATISTICS BLAH BLAH BLAH

Yes, early voting "turnout". Not "vote".

 

[chipbennett]

I was just looking at some early voting statistics in Pennsylvania. Not surprising to see that the returned/requested ratio goes up with age.

Also not surprising, 2/3's of registered Democrats have requested mail-in ballots, compared with 1/4 of Republicans. Looks like Republicans took the more sure way to vote. You vote in person, there are fewer people who "handle" your vote. There's not an entire transit system, for example.

Another age thing, the percentage of mail ballots requested goes up with age. So there are a couple of things that favor Republicans. The demographic group that would absolutely guarantee a Biden victory isn't showing up to vote. They're not requesting mail in ballots. Doubtful they'll stand in line to vote in person. They're just ****ing absent from the process. Republicans registered to vote in Pennsylvania look to be about 2:1 over Democrats. But if those include dead people, of course they'd be Democrats.

Pretty much. From what I'm seeing/hearing:

1. Youth vote is all but non-existent (as in, single digits, but being modeled as 25%+. This is possibly due to college campuses being empty.)
2. Black vote is down significantly (and no "souls to the polls" due to Covid)
3. D-R EV split is way down from historical norms
4. A significant percentage of R EV is from new/first-time voters. R VBM for usual voters is way down, due to VBM fears
5. R vote is not apparently cannibalizing their ED vote, but in several battleground states (FL, NC, PA, for example), D is heavily cannibalizing their ED vote
6. D ED vote is expected to be way down, due to Covid fears

And it also appears that polling models are generally predicting undecideds/independents breaking heavily for Biden, which is based on... well, nothing, really.

Without MAJOR changes to current VBM/EVIP trends, all of the following appear to be true:

1. FL is Trump's, and it won't be close (comfortable, to as high as 4-5%)
2. PA is Trump's, but a a safe, but by no means huge, margin (right now, likely 2-3%)
3. NC is Trump's, by a more comfortable margin than 2016 (right now, trending to 2-3%; much depends on the next week)
4. AZ is Trump's, safely
5. WI is Trump's (R is absolutely killing D in EV, and the needed D voting blocs are thus far nonexistent)
6. MI is Trump's (this one is very close, as far as I can tell thus far)
7. MN is is significant danger of flipping to Trump. (This is a sleeper flip.)
8. NV is on its heels, but not as close
9. NM is starting to be talked about as being in play

Trump's ground game/GOTV machine is downright impressive.

 

[Alpo]

Chip: why do you hate words?

I've got a link to Acronyms Anonymous if you need it.

 

[chipbennett]

The thing I found interesting was that the number of ballots cast at this point almost equal the entire early voting period in 2016. We may have record turnout this time.

Film at 11:00

Nate Silver is saying the same thing. I think it's possible, even likely, that there will be a high turnout. At the same time, I think it is possible that in-person voting will be reduced due to Covid fears and policies. The question is how much of the EV (VBM) represents cannibalization of what would otherwise be EDIP votes? Nobody knows right now. But, again based on statistics, 30%+ of R EV is new/first-time/atypical voters, as opposed to typical EV voters, much less EDIP voters (the so-called 4/4 voters).

 

[Doug]

Was anything done to improve the polling accuracy in the past 4 years?

Honestly, given the cancel culture and political violence from the left, who would willingly confirm that they are a Republican to a stranger on the phone?

Since 2016, or before, polls are not conducted and reported to inform on public opinion; they are conducted and reported to shape public opinion.

 

[Alamo]

President Trump plans to bring Hunter Biden associate Tony Bobulinski as guest to debate

 

[Alpo]

I thought Leetspeak was tough. Chipspeak is worse than Mandarin.

 

[Keith_Indy]

Trump's ground game/GOTV machine is downright impressive.

Boots on the ground, knocking on doors, COVID-SMOVID...

 

[chipbennett]

Chip: why do you hate words?

I've got a link to Acronyms Anonymous if you need it.

Sorry, boss! Cheat sheet:

D-R EV Split: Democrat-Republican Early Vote(r) Split - a metric tracked to predict eventual outcome. Democrats tend to vote early very heavily, and Republicans tend to vote in-person on election day very heavily. Democrats thus end up with an early vote "lead" that Republicans must overcome on election day. Modeling and predictions can thus be based on the magnitude of that split, for a given state, combined with it's D-R registration split, and registration shift from the prior election.

ED: Election Day
EDIP: Election Day In-Person
EV: Early Vote(r)
EVIP: Early Vote(r) In-Person
VBM: Vote By Mail

FL, PA, NC, AZ, WI, MI, MN, NV, NM (I assume you get these...)

 

[Alpo]

Thanks.

LMAO

 

[chipbennett]

Was anything done to improve the polling accuracy in the past 4 years?

Honestly, given the cancel culture and political violence from the left, who would willingly confirm that they are a Republican to a stranger on the phone?

In a word? No. The polls serve one purpose: to drive a particular narrative.

 

[Keith_Indy]

President Trump plans to bring Hunter Biden associate Tony Bobulinski as guest to debate

#1 reason to vote for President Trump - TROLL MASTER IN CHIEF

 

[jamil]

Chip: why do you hate words?

I've got a link to Acronyms Anonymous if you need it.

It just makes for neater appearance. Once you figure out what the letters mean it's actually more readable to me.

 

[Alpo]

It just makes for neater appearance. Once you figure out what the letters mean it's actually more readable to me.

Figures. 01101111 01100011 01100100

 

[jamil]

Sorry, boss! Cheat sheet:

D-R EV Split: Democrat-Republican Early Vote(r) Split - a metric tracked to predict eventual outcome. Democrats tend to vote early very heavily, and Republicans tend to vote in-person on election day very heavily. Democrats thus end up with an early vote "lead" that Republicans must overcome on election day. Modeling and predictions can thus be based on the magnitude of that split, for a given state, combined with it's D-R registration split, and registration shift from the prior election.

ED: Election Day
EDIP: Election Day In-Person
EV: Early Vote(r)
EVIP: Early Vote(r) In-Person
VBM: Vote By Mail

FL, PA, NC, AZ, WI, MI, MN, NV, NM (I assume you get these...)

WOOHOO! I got a 100% on the CBAT!

The hardest one for me was VBM. I had to go process of elimination on that one, but then felt silly because it should have been obvious.