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The 2017 General Political discussion thread, Part 2!
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SheepDog4Life
Natural Gray Man
So, on GMA this morning they did a segment on air population and highlighted an MIT study indicating that 155,000 people die in the US due to air population!!!
The male weekend host echoed my sentiments when he commented how much cleaner the air LOOKS now than it did 2-3 decades ago, so who knew that it was still deadly.
So, I decided to look into it. First of all, here is the MIT study conducted in 2013 and using 2005 data. It being 2017 and all, that right there starts looking fishy.
Air pollution and early deaths in the United States. Part I: Quantifying the impact of major sectors in 2005 - ScienceDirect
Study: Air pollution causes 200,000 early deaths each year in the U.S. | MIT News
So, looking at the "study" we find out it isn't a study of actual deaths, but a simulation using EPA numbers for expected numbers of deaths per capita at certain pollutant levels. So, this "study" is SIM WORLD, not real world and is actually a "test" to see if the EPA "fudge factors" are accurate or not. So, while the "study" predicts 200,000 deaths from respiratory and cardiac issues per year in the US due to pollution, the CDC reports 3,651 deaths per year due to asthma FOR ALL REASONS not just pollution. As the father of an asthmatic I can testify the high ozone days can trigger attacks... but so can very natural, distinctly not man-made tree pollen.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/asthma.htm
So, perhaps I was taught "science" wrong, but it seems that what the MIT "study" actually proves is the the EPA pollution danger "fudge factors" are very off... fudged too high by a large margin.
A few other issues with the "study". It categorizes the pollution by source, but not the simulated deaths by cause. It is purely a policy prescription, not science, IMO. Also, it uses a 90% confidence interval rather than the nearly universal, standard for reliable studies, 95% confidence interval. For the non-math crowd, CI as it is known, is the range that the REAL number could actually be. Similar to the +/- 3% often seen on polls. So the 90% CI given in the study indicates the real number could be, with 90% confidence, anywhere from 90,000 to 362,000.
That is very broad for a 90% interval!!! Ok, perhaps someone here can do the math for the 95% interval, but I suspect the problem is that it maybe close to, or in fact, zero... which then means the statement "may not be statistically meaningful" must be appended to the study. So they "fudge" the CI also...
This leftist "science" looks a lot different that the hard science I was taught... it looks more like the "made-up" lab reports that used to draw F's for failing to follow the scientific method.
tl;dr: The reported 155,000 or 200,000 pollution deaths per year "study" currently making the MSM rounds is 4 years old, based upon 12 year old "data" and is a simulation that does not "count" a single actual death. It's results do not match with real-world CDC reports of, for example. asthma deaths. If it shows anything, it would be that EPA estimates of per capita deaths at various pollutant levels are far too high.
The male weekend host echoed my sentiments when he commented how much cleaner the air LOOKS now than it did 2-3 decades ago, so who knew that it was still deadly.
So, I decided to look into it. First of all, here is the MIT study conducted in 2013 and using 2005 data. It being 2017 and all, that right there starts looking fishy.
Air pollution and early deaths in the United States. Part I: Quantifying the impact of major sectors in 2005 - ScienceDirect
Study: Air pollution causes 200,000 early deaths each year in the U.S. | MIT News
So, looking at the "study" we find out it isn't a study of actual deaths, but a simulation using EPA numbers for expected numbers of deaths per capita at certain pollutant levels. So, this "study" is SIM WORLD, not real world and is actually a "test" to see if the EPA "fudge factors" are accurate or not. So, while the "study" predicts 200,000 deaths from respiratory and cardiac issues per year in the US due to pollution, the CDC reports 3,651 deaths per year due to asthma FOR ALL REASONS not just pollution. As the father of an asthmatic I can testify the high ozone days can trigger attacks... but so can very natural, distinctly not man-made tree pollen.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/asthma.htm
So, perhaps I was taught "science" wrong, but it seems that what the MIT "study" actually proves is the the EPA pollution danger "fudge factors" are very off... fudged too high by a large margin.
A few other issues with the "study". It categorizes the pollution by source, but not the simulated deaths by cause. It is purely a policy prescription, not science, IMO. Also, it uses a 90% confidence interval rather than the nearly universal, standard for reliable studies, 95% confidence interval. For the non-math crowd, CI as it is known, is the range that the REAL number could actually be. Similar to the +/- 3% often seen on polls. So the 90% CI given in the study indicates the real number could be, with 90% confidence, anywhere from 90,000 to 362,000.
That is very broad for a 90% interval!!! Ok, perhaps someone here can do the math for the 95% interval, but I suspect the problem is that it maybe close to, or in fact, zero... which then means the statement "may not be statistically meaningful" must be appended to the study. So they "fudge" the CI also...
This leftist "science" looks a lot different that the hard science I was taught... it looks more like the "made-up" lab reports that used to draw F's for failing to follow the scientific method.
tl;dr: The reported 155,000 or 200,000 pollution deaths per year "study" currently making the MSM rounds is 4 years old, based upon 12 year old "data" and is a simulation that does not "count" a single actual death. It's results do not match with real-world CDC reports of, for example. asthma deaths. If it shows anything, it would be that EPA estimates of per capita deaths at various pollutant levels are far too high.
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We need to add "fake science" to the lexicon. Francis Schaeffer predicted what science would become back in the 60's. He even said that it would take the form of "saving the planet". He also made another interesting prediction. He said that someday, all the world's computers would be connected together in a giant network. He almost sounded apologetic for the comment, I think that even he thought it sounded outrageous.
hoosierdoc
Freed prisoner
Meow you are old
Jeff Flake..... he gets "it." There are some in the GOP that are sticking up to the ideas of the the nation. If more could find their backbone, they would start to find that their appeal would be more widespread.
Kut (is impressed with "some" of the GOP)
-respectful
Kut (is impressed with "some" of the GOP)
-respectful
indiucky
Grandmaster
If any one thought the GOP "got it" we would not have put in Trump......Trump is President because the GOP doesn't "get it".......To those that do not recognize the revolution that took place I say revolution by it's very nature is messy.......
Stock Market's up 20 percent, illegal immigration is down 70 percent, and a new steel plant is being built in Jeffersonville.....So to Senator Flake I say......
I don't know anything about Arizona politics so why the senator is declining to run again could be a combination of things. The big media will spin it as all Trump, but he could be looking at a tough primary challenge, his big money may have just told him to drop out because they were changing horses, any number of things.
I think we'll all just have to see in the next couple of election cycles where things go. Trump picked up a lot of votes from people who didn't normally vote with his populist message. It will be interesting to see if this spreads into congress or not.
I do think the coming election cycles are going to be more entertainment managed and vulgar, look for it to become something like a WWF match.
I think we'll all just have to see in the next couple of election cycles where things go. Trump picked up a lot of votes from people who didn't normally vote with his populist message. It will be interesting to see if this spreads into congress or not.
I do think the coming election cycles are going to be more entertainment managed and vulgar, look for it to become something like a WWF match.
Just a cockroach running from the light switch being flicked on by the 2016 election.
Hopefully McInsane and his boyfriend take after Flake's scurrying away.
Unfortunately the ones in the Republican Party that seem to be speaking up and speaking the truth are getting out. All the others seem to be to scared to speak the truth. Unfortunately those who support the ridiculousness of the President also can’t quite seem to understand how dangerous this is for the country either. Although they may not have been his words Bush is really the one that hit the major points squarely on the head the other day.
Flake is well a flake......on to more important things....like crooked Hitlary....
Clinton campaign, DNC helped fund research that led to salacious Trump dossier | Fox News
Clinton campaign, DNC helped fund research that led to salacious Trump dossier | Fox News
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