The 2016 General Election Thread

[Jludo]

That would probably be the point where I stay home.

Establishments should be able to refuse service to black people though if their religion says to, correct?

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Establishments should be able to refuse service to black people though if their religion says to, correct?

This post is at the top of the page 59... so I have no context with it... and I've not been following the discussion.

But my opinion on your comment: Yes. I think private businesses should be allowed to refuse to serve anyone for any reason, even "protected classes".

Because in doing so, they will likely be run out of business... how it should be.

People shouldn't be refused based on race... but businesses should be allowed to... and they should be allowed to fail because of it. Not punished by the government.

 

[foszoe]

This post is at the top of the page 59... so I have no context with it... and I've not been following the discussion.

But my opinion on your comment: Yes. I think private businesses should be allowed to refuse to serve anyone for any reason, even "protected classes".

Because in doing so, they will likely be run out of business... how it should be.

People shouldn't be refused based on race... but businesses should be allowed to... and they should be allowed to fail because of it. Not punished by the government.

Would you be in favor of repealing the civil rights act, title 2, 7 in the 1964 legislation?

 

[Jludo]

This post is at the top of the page 59... so I have no context with it... and I've not been following the discussion.

But my opinion on your comment: Yes. I think private businesses should be allowed to refuse to serve anyone for any reason, even "protected classes".

Because in doing so, they will likely be run out of business... how it should be.

People shouldn't be refused based on race... but businesses should be allowed to... and they should be allowed to fail because of it. Not punished by the government.

I know the ideological argument, have made it myself. However I was asking it of a Trump supporter who's qualms with Johnson are anti discrimination laws.

Also as I've pointed out before, no libertarian is going to win office saying folks should be allowed to post 'no blacks allowed' in front of their store. Or advocating the repeal of portions of the civil rights acts.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

I know the ideological argument, have made it myself. However I was asking it of a Trump supporter who's qualms with Johnson are anti discrimination laws.

Also as I've pointed out before, no libertarian is going to win office saying folks should be allowed to post 'no blacks allowed' in front of their store. Or advocating the repeal of portions of the civil rights acts.

Oh I know, and it's definitely just an ideological, anti-gov stance.

Such a sign would result in the shop owner being run out of town. That's the result I'd rather see.

I'd rather people (including private businesses) have the *right* to be racists... but there should be no protections for them to be so. Just absolute and outright failure as a result of it.

I'm just not a fan of "social" laws that try to dictate how people think.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Larry Sabato's prediction map

He's being pretty conservative, GA and AZ should probably be toss-ups.

 

[T.Lex]

Larry Sabato's prediction map

He's being pretty conservative, GA and AZ should probably be toss-ups.

Well, if you consider GA a tossup, then you'd need to consider IA one, too. I can see, though, how he ended up with this map.

My only deviations from him are:
- OH - still think it will break Republican, or at least tossup, so I have it leaning Republican;
- NC - I have it leaning red instead of blue;
- UT - I'm worried, that could end up a coin flip in terms of how many people leave the top line blank.

Ultimately, those issues only impact the margin of HRC victory, though.

And, for anyone gearing up to say, "But polls are inaccurate!!!111eleventyone" I would ask you to suggest what the true margin of error should be. In other words, how many points of head start should Trump get? Maybe 5? 10? 2?

Based on right now, that delta probably wouldn't capture enough states.

 

[nate77]

Larry Sabato's prediction map

He was right on with his prediction here.

Donald Trump won?t win the GOP presidential nomination and here are the reasons why

From the article.

“If Trump is nominated, then everything we think we know about presidential nominations is wrong,” Larry Sabato, head of the center for politics at the University of Virginia

 

[Jludo]

He was right on with his prediction here.

Donald Trump won?t win the GOP presidential nomination and here are the reasons why

From the article.

“If Trump is nominated, then everything we think we know about presidential nominations is wrong,” Larry Sabato, head of the center for politics at the University of Virginia

Well that is true, everything we thought we knew about presidential nominations was wrong. Doesn't necessarily mean the same about the general election.

 

[T.Lex]

It will be interesting - and perhaps eye opening for people new to this stuff - to see how the general election goes. In some of the early-primary states that Trump won, I wonder if he gets fewer votes than he did in the primary. That would be very unusual, but I think some of the early voters might be suffering from cognitive dissonance by now.

But, in the later states - including Indiana - those voters had a clearer idea of what Trump was and still voted for him.

 

[nate77]

Well that is true, everything we thought we knew about presidential nominations was wrong. Doesn't necessarily mean the same about the general election.

True, but going by my gut, and my friends, family, and co-workers, I think the media, pollsters, and establishment are in for a shock.

 

[T.Lex]

True, but going by my gut, and my friends, family, and co-workers, I think the media, pollsters, and establishment are in for a shock.

Out of curiosity, how many of those are outside of Indiana?

And, going back to my earlier question, how wrong do you think the polls are in places like Florida? How many out of a hundred people are going to lie to a pollster? 2? 5? 50?

You may hold as an article of faith that the polls are "wrong." That's fine. They certainly can be. But how wrong can they be?

 

[Expat]

I bought into the whole "don't believe the polls" BS last time and was genuinely disappointed that Obama won again. I am not going down that path again.

 

[nate77]

Out of curiosity, how many of those are outside of Indiana?

And, going back to my earlier question, how wrong do you think the polls are in places like Florida? How many out of a hundred people are going to lie to a pollster? 2? 5? 50?

You may hold as an article of faith that the polls are "wrong." That's fine. They certainly can be. But how wrong can they be?

I was in Ohio all last weekend, and everybody I talked politics with were Trump fans.

I was also down in Florida during the Florida primary, and even though every commercial on TV was a Trump smear, the people were fully behind him.

I have a few Facebook freinds and family from all over the country that were feeling the Bern, but I don't hear a peep out of them about Hillary.

 

[nate77]

I bought into the whole "don't believe the polls" BS last time and was genuinely disappointed that Obama won again. I am not going down that path again.

Trump isn't Romney, I went and pulled the lever for him, since I was already at the court house paying my property taxes, but there was just no excitement for him; just another RINO establishment republican.

 

[IndyDave1776]

I know the ideological argument, have made it myself. However I was asking it of a Trump supporter who's qualms with Johnson are anti discrimination laws.

If I had to camp here, I would probably start with homosexualty/marriage being a choice and an action, not a state of being. Forcing me to participate in a type of union of which I religiously disapprove is demanding my tacit approval of something my system of belief does not accept. Conversely, serving a or more black customers does not require me to participate in blackness. Going down this tangent, serving a Black Panther function, with their overtly racist positions is another matter, just like requiring Jews to serve Nazis or blacks to serve the KKK.

I will also admit that I am not exempt from human nature. I get a lot more particular when I am the one getting kicked in the nuts.

 

[T.Lex]

I was in Ohio all last weekend, and everybody I talked politics with were Trump fans.

Ok, that's good news. If the polls are wrong, I think OH is the most likely place to show it.

I was also down in Florida during the Florida primary, and even though every commercial on TV was a Trump smear, the people were fully behind him.

So here are the main ideas about Florida:
- Trump has demographic problems with non-whites. We can argue whether he deserves it or not, but it is the truth. If you tell me your time in FL was with Cubans and Puerto Ricans, and he had alot of support, then we can talk. I suspect Trump-Supporting-Non-Whites are probably underpolled down there.
- In the primaries, he and HRC had almost identical vote tallies, just north of 1M voters. Then the problem will be voter turnout. Trump doesn't have much of a ground game yet, and without having the other Republicans support him, it'll be that much harder to make it happen.
- Other than GWB (with Jeb! popular), FL has gone Dem every cycle for the last 20 years.

But again, how "wrong" can the state polling be? I'm looking at the EC polling, not the national. I probably should've been clearer about that. The national polling is properly suspect, IMHO.

 

[IndyDave1776]

Ok, that's good news. If the polls are wrong, I think OH is the most likely place to show it.


So here are the main ideas about Florida:
- Trump has demographic problems with non-whites. We can argue whether he deserves it or not, but it is the truth. If you tell me your time in FL was with Cubans and Puerto Ricans, and he had alot of support, then we can talk. I suspect Trump-Supporting-Non-Whites are probably underpolled down there.
- In the primaries, he and HRC had almost identical vote tallies, just north of 1M voters. Then the problem will be voter turnout. Trump doesn't have much of a ground game yet, and without having the other Republicans support him, it'll be that much harder to make it happen.
- Other than GWB (with Jeb! popular), FL has gone Dem every cycle for the last 20 years.

But again, how "wrong" can the state polling be? I'm looking at the EC polling, not the national. I probably should've been clearer about that. The national polling is properly suspect, IMHO.

It was several years back, but I can say that when I spent a month in Florida, all the folks of Hispanic descent I spoke with were adamantly opposed to illegal immigration. As they saw it, their families did it properly and so should everyone else.

 

[T.Lex]

So NV seems to be polling within the MOE for HRC. Like, nearly a tie. Only worth 6 RC delegates, and doesn't really seem symbolic of anything else at this point, but curious.

Trump's schedule now includes VA and OH. So, it'll be interesting to see where those polls move next week.

 

[nate77]

So NV seems to be polling within the MOE for HRC. Like, nearly a tie. Only worth 6 RC delegates, and doesn't really seem symbolic of anything else at this point, but curious.

Trump's schedule now includes VA and OH. So, it'll be interesting to see where those polls move next week.

He definitely isn't slouching, sick old Hillary has no chance of keeping up with his energy level.