The 2016 General Election Thread

[nate77]

Followers and likes can be bought. It seems those sorts of things could be even more "skewed".

Not by Trump, I saw in a graph earlier today that he isn't spending any money.

 

[nate77]

Seriously?

Right now, it is as valid a metric as any. I'm sure if people started using it as a metric, it could easily be bought and sold, or rigged.

 

[T.Lex]

Right now, it is as valid a metric as any.

It really isn't.

Is it worth explaining why?

 

[bwframe]

Wonder who participates in polling? With most phones going to cellular numbers now, do people actually answer their phones anymore?

I screen every number that isn't recognized and most that are. I assume everyone else also takes full advantage of modern day communication tools?

 

[T.Lex]

Wonder who participates in polling? With most phones going to cellular numbers now, do people actually answer their phones anymore?

I screen every number that isn't recognized and most that are. I assume everyone else also takes full advantage of modern day communication tools?

I participate because I know it will be counted. Well, usually I can tell.

I also generally tell the truth. If I'm an outlier, so be it. If I'm in the majority, well that's fine, too. I know that my responses will represent a significant number of people in my community.

 

[T.Lex]

Well, somewhat good news out of OH: HRC only up at about the margin of error. I still don't see how the numbers work out for her.

In the primary, she got 680k out of 1.2M Dem votes. Kasich alone got 950k on the Republican side, and Trump got 730k, of more than 2M votes. If HRC gets ALL of the Dem votes (which is unlikely), Trump only needs his own votes (incredibly likely) and half of Kasich's to win. If he gets that AND half of the other Republican votes, he wins.

I think.

As long as the polling is within or at the MOE.

 

[T.Lex]

https://www.donaldjtrump.com/schedule

Campaign stops-
Trump: VA, FL, PA. All eastern states he needs.
Pence: OH and.... WI.

No recent polls from WI, but the primary results are pretty close. Trump must think it can be competitive, but I would be concerned about NC and GA getting away from you.

Unless they have internal polling showing something different, my gut tells me it should be reversed. Send Pence to the south, VA and FL and Trump to WI.

 

[jamil]

Well, somewhat good news out of OH: HRC only up at about the margin of error. I still don't see how the numbers work out for her.

In the primary, she got 680k out of 1.2M Dem votes. Kasich alone got 950k on the Republican side, and Trump got 730k, of more than 2M votes. If HRC gets ALL of the Dem votes (which is unlikely), Trump only needs his own votes (incredibly likely) and half of Kasich's to win. If he gets that AND half of the other Republican votes, he wins.

I think.

As long as the polling is within or at the MOE.

Keep in mind that the people who vote in primaries are a different sort than the people who vote in general elections.

 

[T.Lex]

Keep in mind that the people who vote in primaries are a different sort than the people who vote in general elections.

Oh, no doubt. The final numbers will absolutely be different. But, I see it more as a barometer, especially since these were really contested primaries. The GOTV work will be really wacky.

 

[T.Lex]

So new poll at RCP shows a potentially curious development: Trump in a dead heat in Iowa, both 1-1 and in a 4 way race. IA went Dem in 2008/2012. (In fact, 2004 was the only year it went Republican since 2000.)

Now, in itself, it doesn't mean squat. Those 6 EVs are unlikely to decide the election as most of the midwest is already for Trump ... unless it portends a willingness in MN and WI to vote for Trump. Those 20 EVs would really help him if he loses PA or VA. If nothing else, it might make HRC protect places that would usually be her comfort zone.

ETA:
Whoa! Just discovered this page at 2070towin:
http://www.270towin.com/2016-polls-clinton-trump/

Better presentation than what RCP has, IMO.

 

[nate77]

It really isn't.

Is it worth explaining why?

Dead media polls vs social media buzz, we'll which wins in November.

 

[BugI02]

I tend to take FiveThirtyEight pretty seriously

The Polls Aren?t Skewed: Trump Really Is Losing Badly | FiveThirtyEight

 

[IndyDave1776]

I tend to take FiveThirtyEight pretty seriously

The Polls Aren?t Skewed: Trump Really Is Losing Badly | FiveThirtyEight

I am not familiar with the site, but the consistent tendency for the election to come out, even when losing, much better for the Republicans than the polls would have us believe supplies enough evidence for me to consider them significantly skewed.

 

[BugI02]

Are you familiar with Nate Silver? He is a principal of FiveThirtyEight. Their reputation is founded on an extremely comprehensive record of correct predictions of political races all the way down to state and local levels.

That being said, there would be nothing to prevent the pollsters themselves from skewing their own polls if they were antiTrump, it just seems less likely

 

[BugI02]

Trigger Warning - this is from wikipedia

"Nathaniel Read "Nate" Silver (born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician and writer who analyzes baseball (see sabermetrics) and elections (see psephology). He is currently the editor-in-chief of ESPN's FiveThirtyEight blog and a Special Correspondent for ABC News. Silver first gained public recognition for developing PECOTA, a system for forecasting the performance and career development of Major League Baseball players, which he sold to and then managed for Baseball Prospectus from 2003 to 2009.After Silver successfully called the outcomes in 49 of the 50 states in the 2008 U.S. Presidential election, he was named one of The World's 100 Most Influential People by Time in 2009.
In 2010, the FiveThirtyEight blog was licensed for publication by The New York Times. In 2012 and 2013, FiveThirtyEight won Webby Awards as the "Best Political Blog" from the International Academy of Digital Arts and Sciences.
In the 2012 United States presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, Silver correctly predicted the winner of all 50 states and the District of Columbia."

 

[IndyDave1776]

I see your point, but then again, my grandma's dog could have called that one right. It defies my understanding how anyone thought nominating Romney was a good idea, especially in terms of 'punish Obama for Obamacare by electing the man who brought socialized health care to us first'.

 

[BugI02]

If you were to drill down further you would find he called those races with extremely precise and accurate predictions of the actual vote percentages. He's not a pundit, he's more of a quant

 

[T.Lex]

Yeah, 538 is in my rotation, but this cycle I'm more focused on the EC state polling. Dude's site seems more pop culturish.

 

[printcraft]

The American public is institutionalized.

 

[bwframe]

Just a reminder of what we are up against:


[video=youtube;0anCsKsvCSg]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0anCsKsvCSg[/video]