The 2016 General Election Thread

[T.Lex]

Nevada polling awhile back had it close. PA has coal. HRC's policies hurt coal. That's the main motivator keeping it close for Trump. But, both candidates talk about more infrastructure improvement within the US, which would overall help coal. So, people accustomed to voting D probably still will.

VA and NC may technically be at the MOE, but have consistently been pro-HRC, as I recall. That map, despite the tossups, favors HRC. Obviously.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Sanders supporters (in CNN):

Clinton fave: 59/36
Trump fave: 5/90
2-way: HRC 91%, Trump 6%
4-way: HRC 69%, Johnson 13%, Stein 10%, Trump 3%


Non-white voters (CNN):

Clinton fave: 61/32
Trump fave: 9/88 !
2-way: HRC 83%, Trump 12%
4-way: HRC 72%, Johnson 8%, Stein 8%, Trump 7%


CNN poll - Clinton's leads among:
Overall +9
Women +23
Non-whites +71
College grad +24
Non-grad +3
Indies +9

No good news for Trump here.

 

[jamil]

Sanders supporters (in CNN):

Clinton fave: 59/36
Trump fave: 5/90
2-way: HRC 91%, Trump 6%
4-way: HRC 69%, Johnson 13%, Stein 10%, Trump 3%


Non-white voters (CNN):

Clinton fave: 61/32
Trump fave: 9/88 !
2-way: HRC 83%, Trump 12%
4-way: HRC 72%, Johnson 8%, Stein 8%, Trump 7%


CNN poll - Clinton's leads among:
Overall +9
Women +23
Non-whites +71
College grad +24
Non-grad +3
Indies +9

No good news for Trump here.

How does the demographics stack up to Romney at this point? Just trying to gage where Trump is.

 

[BugI02]

Not sure how they think Trump has a chance in NV and PA.

[h=3]Polling Data[/h]

Poll	Date	Sample	MoE	Trump (R)	Clinton (D)	Spread
RCP Average	7/7 - 7/24	--	--	42.0	41.5	Trump +0.5
KTNV/Rasmussen*	7/22 - 7/24	750 LV	4.0	43	38	Trump +5
Monmouth*	7/7 - 7/10	408 LV	4.9	41	45	Clinton +4

All Nevada: Trump vs. Clinton Polling Data​

 

[T.Lex]

RCP has Georgia basically as a tie - actually tied in one poll and Trump right at the MOE in another.

Georgia.

Romney 2012 and McCain 2008.

That Georgia.

A tie.

 

[ATM]

RCP has Georgia basically as a tie - actually tied in one poll and Trump right at the MOE in another.

Georgia.

Romney 2012 and McCain 2008.

That Georgia.

A tie.

Perhaps they've become disillusioned after consecutively holding their noses and throwing their vote away on losers.

I mean, think about it - the last time they "won" something with their precious vote ...it was W.

 

[T.Lex]

Perhaps they've become disillusioned after consecutively holding their noses and throwing their vote away on losers.

I mean, think about it - the last time they "won" something with their precious vote ...it was W.

With a few exceptions, I'm not keeping track of who's-who in this Trump v. notTrump exercise. Whose side are you on?

I mean, from your post, it looks like you think HRC will win, that's why GA is swinging toward the Dems.

 

[ATM]

With a few exceptions, I'm not keeping track of who's-who in this Trump v. notTrump exercise. Whose side are you on?

I mean, from your post, it looks like you think HRC will win, that's why GA is swinging toward the Dems.

I'm not on anyone's side, I do not consent to being ruled by anyone on the ballot.

 

[jamil]

I'm not on anyone's side, I do not consent to being ruled by anyone on the ballot.

You do realize that means you're voting for Hillary. Right?

 

[T.Lex]

I'm not on anyone's side, I do not consent to being ruled by anyone on the ballot.

Do you have an e-newsletter?

 

[ATM]

You do realize that means you're voting for Hillary. Right?

Yes, anything except a vote for Hillary is a vote for Hillary.

I think voting for Hillary is actually a vote for someone else, but I'm not sure.

Do you have an e-newsletter?

I used to, but I unsubscribed because I didn't pass my purity test.

 

[T.Lex]

Latest RCP has HRC at a pretty level 2x the MOE in PA.

Almost a month since a Florida poll has been released. That seems strange.

Ohio still seen as a tie, but with PA moving left, that might not bode well. I'm starting to doubt my primary-based math.

 

[T.Lex]

Good article on the EC issues for Trump.

Colorado 2016: Trump's shrinking electoral map - POLITICO

Basically, this election will be decided in OH, PA, and FL.

ETA:
Ouch.

http://www.politicususa.com/2016/08...orida-shows-disaster-making-donald-trump.html

 

[T.Lex]

Almost a month since a Florida poll has been released. That seems strange.

I hate quoting myself, but apparently RCP was waiting for me to post before they posted new FL polling. Basically, in a 4 way race, HRC is ahead by right at the MOE. Two-way race is just ahead of the MOE.

Polling was Mon-Wed, so after the convention. May reflect the tail of a convention bump, but almost certainly captures some of Trump's self-inflicted issues.

ETA:
Updated my own EC map, and it doesn't look good. Assuming Trump takes OH and NC (he has a small lead), and HRC takes PA and VA, then she doesn't really need FL. If she takes NV and CO, that'd do it.

Trump OTOH needs FL and CO, then some combination of IA, NM, NV and keep all of Romney's western states.

So, we may have to wait up for CO to announce their results after all.

Maybe.

Maybe not.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

NBC is reporting

Multiple sources say an independent conservative candidate will announce his candidacy for president today. Though he is connected with Republican politics, sources are saying the potential candidate has never held elective office. The candidate revealed by sources has an impressive resume and the backing of key $$ contributors in the Republican Party.


Anyone have any guesses?

http://twitchy.com/gregp-3534/2016/...al&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Edit: Multiple sources say the candidate is Evan McMullin. Wharton grad, CIA alum, Goldman Sachs, Republican Policy Director, US House

 

[T.Lex]

NBC is reporting

Multiple sources say an independent conservative candidate will announce his candidacy for president today. Though he is connected with Republican politics, sources are saying the potential candidate has never held elective office.

Anyone have any guesses?

Never held elected office? Jumping into a presidential election in the middle of August?

Oy vey.

Let me review my files for conservatives who have a hobby of tilting at windmills.

Oh yeah. Maybe Colin Powell? That'd be interesting. And he would fail. Which would suck.

ETA:
HRC +12 in VA.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Looks like it's Evan McMullin.

The world needs a bald president.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/mckaycoppi...esidential-bid?utm_term=.nq5qyyNQw#.qoWN88xrG

One of two things are going to happen:

1. Trump supporters will go straight to character assassination of this guy for daring to defy the chosen one's destiny.
2. Trump supporters will see that Evan is more Conservative than Trump, and could be a better choice... and support him.


I'm going to go out on a limb and say "1"

 

[IndyDave1776]

Never held elected office? Jumping into a presidential election in the middle of August?

Oy vey.

Let me review my files for conservatives who have a hobby of tilting at windmills.

Oh yeah. Maybe Colin Powell? That'd be interesting. And he would fail. Which would suck.

ETA:
HRC +12 in VA.

I agree aside from Powell. After he backed Obama both repudiating the principles for which I had thought him to stand and biting the hand that fed him his entire career all in one fell swoop, I wouldn't support him for dog catcher. That told me way too much about his real system of beliefs.

 

[T.Lex]

Evan McWho?

Oh crap.

Never heard of him. Little googling says I'd probably like the guy. That, back in January, he might've been able to come on the scene and help things.

But, I can totally understand why Trump supporters would ignore this guy. There's a totally viable 3rd option: Evan, as Quixotic as he may be, isn't a good choice at this point. He has all the downside of Trump and lacks the business success to even hint at an upside.

THIS guy, could really cement the split.

Plus, I'm not sure he can get on the ballot in all the states, or even enough of them?

 

[jamil]

This election is getting hilarious. Well, except for the serious part. And that makes it sad. It's sad and hilarious at the same time.