Tariffs on Chinese goods?

[SheepDog4Life]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-trump-tariff-layoffs-begin-1521241456

It's a fair bet that these laid off workers in Pottstown, PA probably aren't too happy with the president's plan. It should be interesting to see if Trump is able to keep PA in the next election.

Yes, since Trump's tax/tariff on cheap/dumped Chinese steel is such a vote loser in Pa, the opposite would make Pa perpetually red, SUBSIDIZE imported Chinese steel. (deep purple)

The above story points the some of the negative consequences of tariffs, domestic producers often increase their prices to the match the tariff, raising prices for the consumers of that product. That's the reality of the economics of tariffs.

THAT, however, does not make blue collar rustbelt voters pro-free trade and anti-tariff.

 

[Wolfhound]

I am unsure about the tariffs. I guess if China is hitting us with a 17% VAT on our exports then a tariff seems fair. The price of steel world wide has dropped due to Chinese manipulation. Or so I've heard. Scrap steel prices are rock bottom right now and have been for a while.

Not to thread jack but I found it interesting that 3 members who weighed in on the first page of this thread are now shooters.

 

[SirLiftsALatte]

China is playing the long game, and is positioning themselves well to take the #1 superpower spot from the U.S.

So I support anything that will weaken their position, even if we suffer some short term pains.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-trump-tariff-layoffs-begin-1521241456

It's a fair bet that these laid off workers in Pottstown, PA probably aren't too happy with the president's plan. It should be interesting to see if Trump is able to keep PA in the next election.

You don't think that the increased costs caused by steel tariffs are offset by the huge corporate tax cuts?

Honest question, I haven't looked at the numbers.

 

[1DOWN4UP]

China is playing the long game, and is positioning themselves well to take the #1 superpower spot from the U.S.

So I support anything that will weaken their position, even if we suffer some short term pains.



You don't think that the increased costs caused by steel tariffs are offset by the huge corporate tax cuts?

Honest question, I haven't looked at the numbers.

This. Anything that will help rebuild America's steel independence in the long run is a plus plus. MAGA.

 

[BugI02]

I am unsure about the tariffs. I guess if China is hitting us with a 17% VAT on our exports then a tariff seems fair. The price of steel world wide has dropped due to Chinese manipulation. Or so I've heard. Scrap steel prices are rock bottom right now and have been for a while.

Not to thread jack but I found it interesting that 3 members who weighed in on the first page of this thread are now shooters.

The older the thread start, the more of that you will have. Time and the hammer eventually come for all men

 

[BugI02]

Republic Steel to Restart Lorain, Ohio, Manufacturing Plant - Area Development
Republic Steel to Restart Lorain, Ohio, Manufacturing Plant

Republic Steel, the nation's leading provider of special bar quality steel, reported it plans to restart its manufacturing plant in Lorain, Ohio. The project will include restarting its idled electric arc furnace, casters and rolling mills

“Republic is prepared to respond quickly to an anticipated uptick in demand across the nation. Republic currently has open capacity at its Canton melt shop and would restart Lorain which would provide more than a million tons of new production capacity to support the SBQ bar & coil and seamless tube round markets."


“This could result in Republic bringing back 1,000+ jobs to its Lorain, Ohio facility. Republic anticipates that it would take a few months to hire and train employees and restart its idled equipment,” officials said.


"Republic is more than prepared to support market demand that has been previously supplied by imports" says Jaime Vigil, President & CEO. He continues "we maintained our Lorain facility while it's been idled waiting for the opportunity to restart and it appears that time is finally here."

So lets do the math. 1000+ jobs minus the 10 laid off in Pottstown still equals 990+ jobs. Still seems like a win

 

[KLB]

China's VAT is 17%. They exempt/rebate it on their exports to us and charge it across the board as an tariff on our exports to them.

I'm generally free-trade, but not the "unilateral", only one-way kind.

17% tariff on all Chinese imports to level the field. Ditto for similarly situated VAT tax countries. And, then, negotiate bilateral free-trade from a position of equal footing.

Why would they charge a VAT on products shipped overseas? A VAT is consumption tax, and the steel is not being consumed in China.

I think that is commonly how VATs work.

 

[SirLiftsALatte]

This. Anything that will help rebuild America's steel independence in the long run is a plus plus. MAGA.

I would add that I think the best best way to keep that spot is to make America stronger rather than try to weaken China. That means slashing spending and avoiding adding to the national debt. $21 TRILLION??? That kind of debt level growth is unsustainable, and should be criminal...

1) Phase out welfare, or just make it so uncomfortable that no one would draw it unless absolutely necessary. It should be an uncomfortable safety net, not a hammock on the beach.

2) Pass a law or constitutional amendment requiring a balanced budget or budget surplus. Failure to do so will disqualify all members of Congress from being reelected to public office at any level.

Of course, no one will do any of that until it's too late. It's awfully hard for politicians to buy votes when they are fiscally responsible...

(apologies if this is off topic...)

 

[T.Lex]

Trump set to announce China sanctions after IP probe - BBC News

Trump to announce penalties on China for IP issues.

I support that. Its been a long time coming.

My gut's also telling me this is a toe-in-the-water move toward larger sanctions.

 

[T.Lex]

Ah, and this makes it interesting....

https://www.yahoo.com/news/chinese-paper-says-china-prepare-military-action-over-001031625.html

The overlap between economic and military issues has never been greater! (IMHO.)

In the context of all the talk of economic sanctions, etc., China doubles down on military solution to the Taiwan problem. Seems to me that the timing links the two, pretty explicitly. (Granted, Congress pushing greater ties with the island probably drew that line, too.)

They're questioning whether Trump would be willing to militarily defend Taiwan while economically fighting with China.

 

[T.Lex]

EU and six other countries exempted from US metals tariffs - BBC News

Ah, so the triangulation continues... although the exemption for S. Korea is a bit interesting given the upthread assertion that China is using that as a front.

Aside from the EU Mr Lighthizer said Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Mexico and South Korea would be exempted.

It does appear that this is trade war is intended to be fought with China.

 

[BugI02]

Ah, and this makes it interesting....

https://www.yahoo.com/news/chinese-paper-says-china-prepare-military-action-over-001031625.html

The overlap between economic and military issues has never been greater! (IMHO.)

In the context of all the talk of economic sanctions, etc., China doubles down on military solution to the Taiwan problem. Seems to me that the timing links the two, pretty explicitly. (Granted, Congress pushing greater ties with the island probably drew that line, too.)

They're questioning whether Trump would be willing to militarily defend Taiwan while economically fighting with China.

I think a better question would be "Will the forces arrayed against him allow it, even if he is so inclined" If an attack comes, it will as likely be overt and military as to be a sanctions/blockade/economic attack. Trump can certainly commit the US military to a shooting war with China but the men and material to completely prosecute that war are controlled elsewhere. I think I shall write my congress critters and ask the straightforward question "Would you back US military support of Taiwan if it is attacked militarily by China" and see what kind of form letters I get back

And what about the fabled simultaneous war military doctrine of years past. Does anyone think if we are involved in a dustup with China Putin will not attempt to take advantage? Especially with our blood and treasure depleted as it is

 

[Jludo]

Planet money re posted a good episode about protectionist US trade policy and its consequences.

[video=youtube;YaxWHoeanbA]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YaxWHoeanbA[/video]

 

[T.Lex]

I think a better question would be "Will the forces arrayed against him allow it, even if he is so inclined" If an attack comes, it will as likely be overt and military as to be a sanctions/blockade/economic attack. Trump can certainly commit the US military to a shooting war with China but the men and material to completely prosecute that war are controlled elsewhere. I think I shall write my congress critters and ask the straightforward question "Would you back US military support of Taiwan if it is attacked militarily by China" and see what kind of form letters I get back

And what about the fabled simultaneous war military doctrine of years past. Does anyone think if we are involved in a dustup with China Putin will not attempt to take advantage? Especially with our blood and treasure depleted as it is

As to the first part of your post - that would be a very interesting exercise! They aren't even sure what the right answer is.

As to your second, I'm still ruminating on that, too. It would effectively leave Britain without our help.

Unless we shifted to an almost pure cyber retaliation. I think we could easily muster the numbers necessary for something like that. And that would be totally 21st Century.

Stuxnet-Asia locks up Chinese amphibious vessels and aircraft and makes them unsteerable?

 

[FlatSixShooter]

Well, this thread started 7 yrs ago, in 2011. And with actions announced today, the Dow, despite solid economic indicators elsewhere, drops 700 pts today "on fear of trade wars".

And so while the ole 401k just plumeted, the price of my retirement flip-flops just doubled.


.

 

[T.Lex]

Well, this thread started 7 yrs ago, in 2011. And with actions announced today, the Dow, despite solid economic indicators elsewhere, drops 700 pts today "on fear of trade wars".

And so while the ole 401k just plumeted, the price of my retirement flip-flops just doubled.


.

Kinda makes one wonder that if the recent actions had been taken back then, perhaps the sting would be less.

 

[Jludo]

This. Anything that will help rebuild America's steel independence in the long run is a plus plus. MAGA.

this confuses me, are we losing our iron ore? Or once we lose the factories they can't be reopened? If anything buying the cheap Chinese steel would keep us from depleting our own reserves would it not?

 

[Jludo]

Kinda makes one wonder that if the recent actions had been taken back then, perhaps the sting would be less.

we did something similar back then with Chinese tires, it's an interesting story.

 

[BugI02]

As to the first part of your post - that would be a very interesting exercise! They aren't even sure what the right answer is.

As to your second, I'm still ruminating on that, too. It would effectively leave Britain without our help.

Unless we shifted to an almost pure cyber retaliation. I think we could easily muster the numbers necessary for something like that. And that would be totally 21st Century.

Stuxnet-Asia locks up Chinese amphibious vessels and aircraft and makes them unsteerable?

Two thoughts

Even when injected into the relatively isolated Iranian military/secret research network, I believe student eventually made it into the wild. I am reminded that one of the restraints/constraints on germ warfare is fear of mutation/loss of control

The Chinese having spent so much time creating exploits to penetrate our systems may have already learned how to engineer much more robust safeguards for theirs

 

[BugI02]

this confuses me, are we losing our iron ore? Or once we lose the factories they can't be reopened? If anything buying the cheap Chinese steel would keep us from depleting our own reserves would it not?

You could make the same argument about energy reserves, want to go back to $5 gasoline?