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  • OakRiver

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    Aug 12, 2014
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    The EU is pretty sure that the UK returned the wrong result. Maybe the UK should do what Ireland did in 2009 with the Treaty of Lisbon. Ireland was the only country to have a public referendum on this, and rejected it. So the decision was made to have a second referendum to get the result the EU wanted, or else the Treaty would have failed across the EU. It passed second time around of course.

    I'm enjoying reading UK comment sections where people are calling for a new "People's Vote" to remain in the UK. They are even asking is it better to respect democracy or have a successful country.
     

    BugI02

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    Jul 4, 2013
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    I have heard speculation that May will make a show of tinkering with the 'backstop' and a few other areas of the agreement, but in reality will be dithering so the pressure of an impending no agreement exit (crashing out) will work to persuade some that a bad agreement is better than no agreement

    I have also read that some hard core opponents of the deal will actually seek a postponement in the deadline specifically to mitigate that pressure. My gut feeling is [strike]they[/strike] the U.K. will prefer to go without a deal rather than be enmeshed in a bad one seemingly with no sunset clause
     

    OakRiver

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    I hope they keep doing what they're doing. At least as long as I still owe on my student loans there. This exchange rate is fantastic :D

    If anyone is taking a vacation to the UK any time soon, it's a great time to get money changed into sterling.
     

    historian

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    Lord, what pansies the once mighty Empire have become. So now what happens? Anyone know?

    So...Corbyn tabled a no-confidence motion that will be debated and voted on tomorrow (May will probably survive). If May survives then she will present an alternative deal on Monday. If that is voted down, then we enter the unknown. If there is no deal or extension by 3/29 then a "Hard Brexit" happens causing mass chaos as (for instance) there is no "hard border" between Ireland and Northern Ireland (among other problems). https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-46318565

    If the no-confidence passes then everyone has 14 days to form a new government. If no new government is formed then a general election will be called which will happen 25 days from when it is called. This will put the new government in office about Feb 25 or 26. This will give them a month to either decide to a) Stick with the EU, b) Ask the EU for more negotiation time, c) Hard Brexit. Part of option "B" could be a second referendum.
     

    Leadeye

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    What the government is saying to the people is reminiscent of Richard 2nd addressing the leaders of the peasant revolt.

    God omnipotent is mustering in his clouds on our behalf, armies of pestilence, and they shall strike your children yet unborn and unbegot that lift your vassal hands against my head and threat the glory of my precious crown.... You wretches, detestable on land or sea, you will seek equality with lords and are unworthy to live. Give this message to your colleagues- rustics you were and rustics you are still. You will remain in bondage, not as before, but incomparably harsher. For as long as we live we will strive to suppress you and your misery will be an example for posterity.

    In the end the real government will nullify the vote and the people can just lump it.
     

    Libertarian01

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    Jan 12, 2009
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    I was listening to an interview tonight.

    May will probably survive, at least for a month or so. They are 10 weeks from a hard exit, so if she is kicked out now there would be massive infighting to replace her. Everyone knows this. So to avoid ripping themselves apart and possibly giving power to the other party she will more than likely stay in - for now.

    This vote went exactly the way I would have voted - NO! I don't understand all of it but the biggest sticking point is the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. See, it is open now as one is part of the UK and the other part of the EU, just like Indiana and Ohio. However, when the UK leaves what do they do with that border? It should not stay porous as it is today.

    In the treaty May negotiated the border would stay porous forever, the UK would have to live with the EU's decisions - and NOT get a vote - FOREVER! So the UK would be tied to the EU without any power or say. Which to my thinking was BS.

    There are other issues but the Ireland border is the biggun'. There are some in Britain who were willing to let it stay porous for five (5) or even ten (10) years while all the agreements were worked out, but in the end they wanted a cutoff date. May's agreement had no cutoff date.

    Maybe now the fear of massive disruption on both sides of the channel will get the EU to pull head from a** and be more reasonable with May presuming she survives the no confidence vote.

    Regards,

    Doug

    PS - I am talking about stuff I am very vague on. PLEASE correct me on any errors.
     

    wtburnette

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    SW side of Indy
    So the majority of Brits want to exit the EU and voted that way, but then the politicians are stalling, saying they can't figure out a way to do it, so they'll eventually just do what the fat cats wanted and stay in the EU? And they make fun of us for the second amendment? Okay then.
     

    historian

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    So the majority of Brits want to exit the EU and voted that way, but then the politicians are stalling, saying they can't figure out a way to do it, so they'll eventually just do what the fat cats wanted and stay in the EU? And they make fun of us for the second amendment? Okay then.

    52-48. Not a great majority. The problem isn't the politicians. The economies are tied up together too tightly. The people don't want to be in the EU, but the want the benefits of the EU. The EU (for good reason) wants compensated for the benefits that the Brits would get, and really don't want to cooperate too much because why should they?

    Then there is the bigger problem of N. Ireland. Unless you want round whatever of the troubles, you can't put up a physical border. This is an icky catch-22 all around.
     

    wtburnette

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    SW side of Indy
    52-48. Not a great majority. The problem isn't the politicians. The economies are tied up together too tightly. The people don't want to be in the EU, but the want the benefits of the EU. The EU (for good reason) wants compensated for the benefits that the Brits would get, and really don't want to cooperate too much because why should they?

    Then there is the bigger problem of N. Ireland. Unless you want round whatever of the troubles, you can't put up a physical border. This is an icky catch-22 all around.

    I understand there are difficulties, but if the people voted to leave, even by a thin margin, it's incumbent upon the politicos to figure out how to do it. Just because something is hard doesn't mean it can't be done. I know it won't be easy, but they've had a couple of years to get this stuff figured out.
     

    Kutnupe14

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    52-48. Not a great majority. The problem isn't the politicians. The economies are tied up together too tightly. The people don't want to be in the EU, but the want the benefits of the EU. The EU (for good reason) wants compensated for the benefits that the Brits would get, and really don't want to cooperate too much because why should they?

    Then there is the bigger problem of N. Ireland. Unless you want round whatever of the troubles, you can't put up a physical border. This is an icky catch-22 all around.

    You hit the nail on the head about the British wanting EU privileges without being in the EU. I know someone who wanted out of the EU, but wanted a slice of it carved out so he could travel the nations passport free, and still be able to work (or own a business) in those nations. This person already own in an EU nation, and would probably lose his business (and rightfully so) if there was a hard Brexit.
     

    BugI02

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    I understand there are difficulties, but if the people voted to leave, even by a thin margin, it's incumbent upon the politicos to figure out how to do it. Just because something is hard doesn't mean it can't be done. I know it won't be easy, but they've had a couple of years to get this stuff figured out.

    This^^^. If the vote had gone the other way (the way entrenched bureaucrats desired) by even a much smaller margin, it would be treated as the iron-clad will of the people, not to be denied. It is a good analog for the election of Trump, something people on the other side never prepared themselves to deal with because they thought it could never happen. Now they want their ball back
     

    Kutnupe14

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    I understand there are difficulties, but if the people voted to leave, even by a thin margin, it's incumbent upon the politicos to figure out how to do it. Just because something is hard doesn't mean it can't be done. I know it won't be easy, but they've had a couple of years to get this stuff figured out.

    Honestly, the people that voted to leave probably haven't consider the repercussion in doing so. While they ultimately might know what they think they want, getting there with the least amount of problems, might be difficult.
    England's entire economy is tied up in the EU. An exit would be quite interesting, as the EU could literally hold them hostage for economic deals. The alternative for the English would be to seek deals abroad. FAR abroad, making already expensive goods, more so. England ain't the United States; it can't stand on its own.
     

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