Did world war 3 just start?

[T.Lex]

LOL, I wonder if these plans to start a war with the west include a MASSIVE armament build up because in their current state they are no where near ready to take on NATO.

Ok. I'll bite.

Which parts of NATO would field a battle-ready force to defend the rest of the Ukraine? Or the Baltics?

Yes, the title "war with the west" is more than a little clickbait. But, I think the more realistic (relative expression there) scenario is Russia re-asserts herself to the USSR boundaries.

I'm not sure we would have the capacity or appetite for that fight.

 

[foszoe]

I too often wonder about your last statement. I think there are a lot of Chamberlains in NATO.

Which leads me to think if we aren't really willing to do it anyway, why are we paying for it, especially if others aren't paying their fair share.

Ok. I'll bite.

Which parts of NATO would field a battle-ready force to defend the rest of the Ukraine? Or the Baltics?

Yes, the title "war with the west" is more than a little clickbait. But, I think the more realistic (relative expression there) scenario is Russia re-asserts herself to the USSR boundaries.

I'm not sure we would have the capacity or appetite for that fight.

 

[MilitaryArms]

Ok. I'll bite.

Which parts of NATO would field a battle-ready force to defend the rest of the Ukraine? Or the Baltics?

Yes, the title "war with the west" is more than a little clickbait. But, I think the more realistic (relative expression there) scenario is Russia re-asserts herself to the USSR boundaries.

I'm not sure we would have the capacity or appetite for that fight.

The article doesn't say "war with the west in Ukraine", it says "war with the west" as if they're practicing for a fight with us in general.

Article 5 of NATO stipulates that an attack on any NATO member state is an attack on all. If that member state goes to war, we too must go to war as all NATO allies must.

So, if Russia wants to reclaim former Soviet states that are now NATO members, they're going to provoke all NATO countries into a fight.

 

[Hawkeye]

Ok. I'll bite.

Which parts of NATO would field a battle-ready force to defend the rest of the Ukraine? Or the Baltics?

Yes, the title "war with the west" is more than a little clickbait. But, I think the more realistic (relative expression there) scenario is Russia re-asserts herself to the USSR boundaries.

I'm not sure we would have the capacity or appetite for that fight.

Capacity for a fight? Probably, yes. My impression is we have the manower and equipment for a fight, at least in the Baltic region. Not so sure aobut the Black Sea portions of Ukraine. FOr a reference, google BALTOPS 16 for example.

Appetite, quite another question. I could see Barry O'Bama being another Chamberlin.

 

[T.Lex]

The article doesn't say "war with the west in Ukraine", it says "war with the west" as if they're practicing for a fight with us in general.

Yes, the title was clickbait for an article that was more narrow.

Article 5 of NATO stipulates that an attack on any NATO member state is an attack on all. If that member state goes to war, we too must go to war as all NATO allies must.

So, if Russia wants to reclaim former Soviet states that are now NATO members, they're going to provoke all NATO countries into a fight.

Yes, but that doesn't really answer my question.

Which NATO members would have the resources and willingness to fight Russia anywhere that wasn't home soil? Obviously, if Russia invaded Poland, Poland would be at war. And there is no doubt - Article 5 binds all members of NATO. But, that doesn't fully equate to NATO members answering the call.

Also, the "West" is not entirely the same as NATO (at least not anymore, I'd argue).

Capacity for a fight? Probably, yes. My impression is we have the manower and equipment for a fight, at least in the Baltic region. Not so sure aobut the Black Sea portions of Ukraine. FOr a reference, google BALTOPS 16 for example.

Appetite, quite another question. I could see Barry O'Bama being another Chamberlin.

Could Germany wage war longer than a season, financially? Ok, probably. France? Maybe not. UK, while at the same time planning and executing Brexit? I'm dubious.

In terms of appetite, I don't think any of us are ready. And I think Putin sense that, too.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

The Olympics Are Back and Tensions Between Russia and Ukraine Are Heating Up | Foreign Policy

Russia says it foiled two attempted incursions from ukraine into Crimea. Kiev denies they happened.

Starting to look like the pretext for an invasion. If Russia makes a military move, the consequences of the GOP primary will be more obvious than ever to everyone except those dudes in MAGA hats.

 

[T.Lex]

So this:
Russia accuses Ukraine of attempted Crimea 'incursions' - BBC News

The Olympics Are Back and Tensions Between Russia and Ukraine Are Heating Up | Foreign Policy

Russia says it foiled two attempted incursions from ukraine into Crimea. Kiev denies they happened.

Starting to look like the pretext for an invasion. If Russia makes a military move, the consequences of the GOP primary will be more obvious than ever to everyone except those dudes in MAGA hats.

There used to be a guy here who used to post news stuff before anyone else would.

I sure miss that guy.

 

[BugI02]

Ok. I'll bite.

Which parts of NATO would field a battle-ready force to defend the rest of the Ukraine? Or the Baltics?

If ONLY some candidate would make that point. Something, something 2% of GDP something

Yes, the title "war with the west" is more than a little clickbait. But, I think the more realistic (relative expression there) scenario is Russia re-asserts herself to the USSR boundaries.

I'm not sure we would have the capacity or appetite for that fight.

I think the people in Russia who think they're holding Putin's leash have more to worry about from him then we do. Like Guantanamo, Lefortovo is still open for business AFAIK

 

[BugI02]

The article doesn't say "war with the west in Ukraine", it says "war with the west" as if they're practicing for a fight with us in general.

Article 5 of NATO stipulates that an attack on any NATO member state is an attack on all. If that member state goes to war, we too must go to war as all NATO allies must.

So, if Russia wants to reclaim former Soviet states that are now NATO members, they're going to provoke all NATO countries [STRIKE]into a[/STRIKE] to offer to hold our coat while we fight.

FTFY

 

[BugI02]

The Olympics Are Back and Tensions Between Russia and Ukraine Are Heating Up | Foreign Policy

Russia says it foiled two attempted incursions from ukraine into Crimea. Kiev denies they happened.

Starting to look like the pretext for an invasion. If Russia makes a military move, the consequences of the GOP primary will be more obvious than ever to everyone except those dudes in MAGA hats.

Why would you think that? Would be happening on President Feckless's watch. I predict a couple more red lines and a stern talking to.

If Trump is in Putin's pocket, wouldn't he wait until early in the Trump administration?

 

[AmmoManAaron]

Article 5 of NATO stipulates that an attack on any NATO member state is an attack on all. If that member state goes to war, we too must go to war as all NATO allies must.

So, if Russia wants to reclaim former Soviet states that are now NATO members, they're going to provoke all NATO countries into a fight.

I respect your opinion and wish I didn't think this way, but I can't help but conclude that if Russia invaded any of the NATO states formerly part of the USSR that we, and the rest of NATO, would NOT follow through on our commitments (while not NATO members, so far we have left both Georgia and Ukraine high and dry in spite of commitments to the contrary). Regrettably, I also think that this inaction would effectively spell the end of NATO in practice if not in name.

 

[MilitaryArms]

Which NATO members would have the resources and willingness to fight Russia anywhere that wasn't home soil? Obviously, if Russia invaded Poland, Poland would be at war. And there is no doubt - Article 5 binds all members of NATO. But, that doesn't fully equate to NATO members answering the call.

We can speculate this point to death. I realize this isn't the Cold War anymore, and be being from that era and having served during the height of it, I probably have a different mindset. From my interaction with our allies then, I would say the key players like France, Germany, the UK, Canada, Italy, Spain, Poland, etc. would have no choice but to fight. They would know that if they didn't NATO would be immediately rendered useless and Russia would run rough-sod, Hitler style, through former Soviet states. I think most of the big states in NATO would see such inaction as being more dangerous than kicking Putin's ass.

Also, the "West" is not entirely the same as NATO (at least not anymore, I'd argue).

That's perspective based. To a Cold War vet such as myself we know exactly what people mean by "the west" in the context of military action. We always referred to ourselves as "the west" and them as being the "east". I'm not sure where this came from... perhaps it's a symbolic play on East and West Germany which became something of a focal point during the Cold War. <shrug> But if you were to say to me "the west" in 1986 I would have said it's synonymous with NATO.

Could Germany wage war longer than a season, financially? Ok, probably. France? Maybe not. UK, while at the same time planning and executing Brexit? I'm dubious.

France and England? What about the US? We are in as bad, or worse, financial straights as any of our allies. Regardless, war is generally good for the economy which is one reason we stay in a constant state of war here in the US. If you end the wars, a half million people get laid off almost over night.

In terms of appetite, I don't think any of us are ready. And I think Putin sense that, too.

That much I would agree with. Americans are always split down party lines. The war in Iraq is a perfect example. The Republicans generally wanted it even though many knew it was a fools errand and wouldn't likely end well... and those people were right. But the hawks in the Republican party prevailed and got us into the longest war in our nations history over lies.

If Putin invaded a major NATO state like Poland, I would say the majority (no matter how thin) would vote for war. The same is likely true of major allies even closer to Russia who still have fresh memories of Hitlers march across Europe. If we got involved, I suspect the big players I mentioned above would too.

But as I said, we could "what if" it to death. No one knows until such a time comes.

 

[T.Lex]

We can speculate this point to death. I realize this isn't the Cold War anymore, and be being from that era and having served during the height of it, I probably have a different mindset. From my interaction with our allies then, I would say the key players like France, Germany, the UK, Canada, Italy, Spain, Poland, etc. would have no choice but to fight. They would know that if they didn't NATO would be immediately rendered useless and Russia would run rough-sod, Hitler style, through former Soviet states. I think most of the big states in NATO would see such inaction as being more dangerous than kicking Putin's ass.

So. We are probably of like age, as I am also a Cold War Kid. I never served in the military, but had many close family members who have. Probably almost as importantly, I spent some of my college years involved in very specific study of certain aspects of the USSR.

This is not 1986.

While there may be similarities, we shouldn't fool ourselves into complacency.

But if you were to say to me "the west" in 1986 I would have said it's synonymous with NATO.

Even then, I might've quibbled about some of the lines, but that's something we can discuss over a cold brew someday.

Today, the lines are different. And probably not as settled.

France and England? What about the US? We are in as bad, or worse, financial straights as any of our allies. Regardless, war is generally good for the economy which is one reason we stay in a constant state of war here in the US. If you end the wars, a half million people get laid off almost over night.

Couple things - first, you kinda make my point about how many parts of NATO could afford it.

And, the notion that war is good for national economies is mostly not true. Or rather, puts the emphasis on the wrong things. A country with access to raw materials, labor, and manufacturing can generally outpace a country with less of those things. But, in and of itself, war hurts economies that are already anemic.

That much I would agree with. Americans are always split down party lines. The war in Iraq is a perfect example. The Republicans generally wanted it even though many knew it was a fools errand and wouldn't likely end well... and those people were right. But the hawks in the Republican party prevailed and got us into the longest war in our nations history over lies.

We'll leave that for another thread.

If Putin invaded a major NATO state like Poland, I would say the majority (no matter how thin) would vote for war. The same is likely true of major allies even closer to Russia who still have fresh memories of Hitlers march across Europe. If we got involved, I suspect the big players I mentioned above would too.

But as I said, we could "what if" it to death. No one knows until such a time comes.

But this is the internet.

One modern reality that is different than 1986 is that Putin is different. He lived through that era, too. He is smarter than Khruschev and Brezhnev combined and 2x as effective. (At least.) He doesn't want or need all of Europe. Hell - most of Europe doesn't want Europe at this point. Poland would be a bridge too far right now. But, I could totally see the Baltics and the rest of the USSR's borders restored, or nearly so. The central republics could remain "independent" since they already aren't. Or wait for them to "vote" to join Russia.

He can think more strategically and pull Turkey into his sphere of influence and have access to the Med, and all that provides. With the condition of Libya and Syria, he's got footholds in the ME that are arguably better than during the Cold War.

No, the new Russian Empire would have a different footprint than any previous one, but there is a pathway to it.

 

[T.Lex]

Ukraine Crimea: Russia sends new air defence missiles - BBC News

Russia moving upgraded SAM systems to Crimean. Totally normal.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Leaked Glazyev tapes reveal Russian destabilization of Ukraine

PUTIN?S HYBRID WAR EXPOSED: Kremlin?s 2014 Ukraine invasion plans laid bare in series of leaked telephone conversations

 

[ART338WM]

Well when America does become involved in what is WW-III I wonder who's sons will fight in it?, because none of mine will be. If neccsary I will personally take them to what ever country that will allow them to escape the draft. The only way anyone should allow their children to be drafted is ONLY after every able bodied son and now daughter of the same senator's and representative who voted to send them there are also in uniform and in harms way.

Like THAT"S EVER gonna happen.

\IMHO our country in it's present state is no longer worth dying for especially considering how badly we treat our wounded vets, and the utterly insane rules of engagement our soldiers and marines must fight under, and how again in my opinion worthless our war fighters lives seem to be to those in power in DC.

 

[trucker777]

Attn person who started this thread: -when WW3 starts you will know it, and won't have to ask. My understanding says the world is still in fiscal crisis, and currency wars have started. These are always a precursor to world war and upheaval. There's alot of similarities right now you can compare with prior to the outbreaks of the first and second ww's.

 

[Kutnupe14]

Attn person who started this thread: -when WW3 starts you will know it, and won't have to ask. My understanding says the world is still in fiscal crisis, and currency wars have started. These are always a precursor to world war and upheaval. There's alot of similarities right now you can compare with prior to the outbreaks of the first and second ww's.

I'm not so sure. The beginnings of global conflicts aren't understood until well into hostilities.

 

[BogWalker]

Some people even place the line of the beginning of WWII in 1937 at the outset of the Second Sino-Japanese War.

 

[trucker777]

It's entirely possible that WW3 is at the door step. I'm not saying it isnt or anything, it could well be. That could be the October surprise for all I know, I'm not a prognosticator or soothsayer by any means. All the players on the chess board are all lined up. Literally all it would take would be for one of these crazy guys to start making belligerent moves and then WHAM!