Coronovirus IV

[Denny347]

https://fox59.com/news/coronavirus/...ukviGz61zbQdwP_U4_MndugshFGDZj9dI83tNi3F89arg

Encouraging news and shouldn't be a surprise to anyone here. I bet the real number of people who have had this is closer to 250-300k. However, say that 186k is the correct number, 43% of 186k who are carriers is just under 84k. Population of Indiana is 6.9 Million. Asymptomatic carriers account for .012% of Indiana citizens. Hell, those who have caught this bug only account for .026% of the population.

 

[foszoe]

As I read through all these Coronavirus threads, I can't help but wondering how much cloud/hd spaces is taken up by amateur epidemiologists modelling this disease

 

[Ingomike]

Research testing? You have my interest. The only research testing I'm aware of that is public put the virus in Washington in December.

Anything earlier than that, anywhere else in the US, is based on... modeling.

But like I said, I'm interested in sources for the research testing you mention.

Research testing, my words for the antibody testing they have been doing. California also revised their date sometime back several weeks ago...

https://www.wlwt.com/article/antibo...o-since-january-health-officials-say/32438290

 

[bwframe]

NSFW!!!

[video=youtube;bSRBibQwYV0]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bSRBibQwYV0[/video]

 

[JettaKnight]

As I read through all these Coronavirus threads, I can't help but wondering how much cloud/hd spaces is taken up by amateur epidemiologists modelling this disease

A drop in the bucket compared to the space consumed by YouTube experts.

 

[chezuki]

In case you care about antibodies
Every normal person has antibodies - lots of antibodies and lots of different antibodies, they are part of the immune system that fights to keep us cleaned up.
Each antibody is produced specifically to fight a specific pathogen(virus, bacteria or fungus).
You could have antibodies from every exposure to pathogens in your life, every infection, rash, cold or flu - although some go away with time, some don't.
Antibodies work by attaching to a specific pathogen and either directly making it harmless or tagging it with its presence so other things, such as macrophages, can destroy it or make it harmless.

The antibodies we want to have now are specific to the chinese virus.
Any antibody test has to be specific to the chinese virus antibodies or it is not telling you anything useful. We alreadfy know we have lots of antibodies.
If we have antibodies specific to the chinese virus it means we currently have or had the chinese virus.
The presence of antibodies means the body is currently fighting or has fought the virus - it does not necessarily mean the fight is over and it does not necessarily mean one cannot still spread the virus.
It is very possible to test positive for the virus and positive for the antibodies at the same time.
The first antibodies produced are IgM within about a week of exposure and later IgG within about two weeks of exposure - it helps to know which antibody the test is checking for (or both) to determine the timeline.
Eventually the antibodies should win over the virus - if they lose, you lose.

The antibodies should hang around after the fight and remain ready to fight any new exposure to that specific virus thus giving us immunity. We don't know how long these antibodies will hang around yet or how long they will be effective.

If the virus mutates enough, the existing antibodies can't fight it. Exposure to a sufficiently mutated virus means the whole process has to start over with new antibodies specific to the new pathogen.

Also there is evidence that the virus can safely hide from the antibodies, such as in testicles, for some time.

Once that IgG test becomes more readily available, we’ll have a much better idea of how low the mortality rate actually is.

 

[churchmouse]

Not saying CM has the antibodies. In fact, I said that early, it's unlikely. I think that matches reality. Impossible? Nah. I don't know how many zeros is in the actual probability. I think we're both saying there are enough to say he probably doesn't have the antibodies. But I think you are overly confident that there are significantly more zeros than the current information might produce.

OK so the phone call I just got was a lie...…..Umkay.

Carry on fellas.

Mouse is out.

 

[T.Lex]

OK so the phone call I just got was a lie...…..Umkay.

Carry on fellas.

Mouse is out.

Ok coymouse, do you have the antibodies?

 

[nonobaddog]

OK so the phone call I just got was a lie...…..Umkay.

Carry on fellas.

Mouse is out.

Did the phone call say you had the antibodies?
If so - Congratulations!

 

[Bennettjh]

OK so the phone call I just got was a lie...…..Umkay.

Carry on fellas.

Mouse is out.

Well?

 

[Ziggidy]

Well, if you learned on INGO that the coronavirus pandemic is the same as climate change, then you don't need a doctor, accountant, lawyer, or anyone else because you already have it all figured out.

I never made such a claim; have I?

 

[chezuki]

CM, even if you have IgG antibodies it is EXTREMELY (Read near zero probability) unlikely you had THIS in November. Not saying you weren’t sick, but not sick with this.


Some of the antibiotics tests are also flawed in that they aren’t as specific... they may show positive for IgG antibodies for similar coronaviruses, it may not mean you had SARS-CoV-2.

 

[chipbennett]

OK so the phone call I just got was a lie...…..Umkay.

Carry on fellas.

Mouse is out.

The sound of one man's assumptions imploding is the sound of another man's assumptions being proven.

Interestingly, T. Lex and I both agree on the likelihood that you are Indiana's Patient Zero. Granted, that fact leads to rather divergent conclusions regarding when Patient Zero actually appeared in Indiana.

 

[Ziggidy]

My understanding is that presence of antibodies means there is a high likelihood of having been exposed to the virus. Not sure it will change my behavior too much, but it might make my older parents feel more comfortable about having me over to visit.

I get it.....and I am certain your parents will be happy to see with OPEN arms.

 

[nonobaddog]

CM, even if you have IgG antibodies it is EXTREMELY (Read near zero probability) unlikely you had THIS in November. Not saying you weren’t sick, but not sick with this.


Some of the antibiotics tests are also flawed in that they aren’t as specific... they may show positive for IgG antibodies for similar coronaviruses, it may not mean you had SARS-CoV-2.

Exactly, there are some really bad tests out there - like whatever WHO test was used on that papaya that tested positive for COVID-19.

 

[T.Lex]

CM, even if you have IgG antibodies it is EXTREMELY (Read near zero probability) unlikely you had THIS in November. Not saying you weren’t sick, but not sick with this.

Some of the antibiotics tests are also flawed in that they aren’t as specific... they may show positive for IgG antibodies for similar coronaviruses, it may not mean you had SARS-CoV-2.

G'luck with that.

The sound of one man's assumptions imploding is the sound of another man's assumptions being proven.

Interestingly, T. Lex and I both agree on the likelihood that you are Indiana's Patient Zero. Granted, that fact leads to rather divergent conclusions regarding when Patient Zero actually appeared in Indiana.

Well, unless CM had an undisclosed exposure to bats (and genomic mapping of the COVID coronavirus is REALLY out of whack) he's probably not Patient Zero. But, he came in contact with someone who was, or was very close to Patient Zero.

(Again, assuming November was the infection timeframe.)

@CM -There's a compelling argument that you need to come forward to the scientific personnel with your narrative.

 

[Fargo]

I know this isn’t the intent, but from where I sit second-guessing and Monday morning quarterbacking other peoples illnesses, doctors and medical testing can come off pretty damn rudely.

I am going to wager that no one else here has personal knowledge of this case other than CM and his doctor. Claiming to be able to know more than them over the Internet is kind of insulting to the guy who lived it.

 

[chipbennett]

CM, even if you have IgG antibodies it is EXTREMELY (Read near zero probability) unlikely you had THIS in November. Not saying you weren’t sick, but not sick with this.


Some of the antibiotics tests are also flawed in that they aren’t as specific... they may show positive for IgG antibodies for similar coronaviruses, it may not mean you had SARS-CoV-2.

On what are you basing this assertion? The virus was in the wild at least in October. Worldwide spread was sometime at or after that point in time, but certainly not as late as January. November is entirely within the realm of plausibility.

 

[Ziggidy]

So you have this contraption. Let's call it a model. And you stuff numbers into it. And then it spits numbers out. And you interpret some meaning into those numbers. Like if the Earth's CO2 goes up, you stuff that into the contraption, and it spits out what it thinks the effect will be on the earth's overall temperature. So the numbers are there. It's not for the lack of numbers. It's that there's no guarantee that creators of the model aren't full of ****, and then therefore, all those numbers begot by the other numbers, are nonsense. Of course, the **** they're potentially full of could be intentional ****, like if there's an agenda, or that they just make a lot of false assumptions, or don't actually know the domain they're modeling as well as they think they do.

Nah.....you don't think that wouldever happen do you? I mean, manipulation of numbers to push an agenda? Not here, not in the USA; not today - not never!

 

[chezuki]

On what are you basing this assertion? The virus was in the wild at least in October. Worldwide spread was sometime at or after that point in time, but certainly not as late as January. November is entirely within the realm of plausibility.

Not going to reiterate the entire thread for you. It’s been explained plenty well enough to understand.