Coronovirus IV

[BugI02]

I have learned something about INGO and all the experts that frequent this forum. I can forgo my doctor visits, accountant meetings, lawyer concerns and so much more by just visiting here. I have never been with such a group of experts, in everything, in all my life. What's cool, is the different hats that are shared by many of the same individuals! ASTONISHING, simply astonishing.

If you weren't already skeptical of 'experts' whose pronouncements don't seem to be backed up with underlying data that makes sense to you, and you learned that on INGO, then you have indeed received something of value from being a member

 

[jamil]

Last Fall? No chance.

It would be the earliest recorded patient. Here. In Indiana. It would completely upend our understanding of coronaviruses. And unless he had some interaction with bats and Wuhan China, there would be no path for it to skip out of Indiana to Wuhan where it infected a (literally) unknowable total of people, with a compelling mortality rate (whatever the number is). In a patient with admitted vulnerabilities to it.

I do not "know." Yet, I'm still saying no chance. And I'm very interested in the results, as I was with my other friends who went through the process who actually had a reasonable chance of having it.

The timing seems early. However, you're assuming the party line China had maintained from the start, that patient zero was in December. But there's some pretty compelling, though circumstantial evidence that it from a lab, not from the wet market, and it got out sometime in October, and patient zero happened much earlier than December.

It's far from certain that it would have been the earliest patient that had it, and I'm not even sure you could say that it was the earliest patient recorded. It's China for **** sake. But, that said, though I think if the virus got out of Wuhan in October, it's possible for someone from Indy to have contracted it in late November but not likely. A lot of people had a mystery illness late last year including me. I'd like to think it was the Rona. Odds are it's not. But it would not be impossible as your post seems to imply. It would only be impossible if the information you're basing it on is true. And it would only be possible if the information I've added to the discourse is true. So there's a lot of distance in between, which I think your version of reality lacks.

 

[T.Lex]

The timing seems early. However, you're assuming the party line China had maintained from the start, that patient zero was in December. But there's some pretty compelling, though circumstantial evidence that it from a lab, not from the wet market, and it got out sometime in October, and patient zero happened much earlier than December.

Actually, (and you'll probably get to the relevant post in a few minutes) I'm basing on US information. It was in the US, in places with contact traceable exposure to people from China, probably in December.

That, putting it generously, makes it extraordinarily unlikely that someone in Indiana with no apparent contact with anyone in China would have it in November.

It's far from certain that it would have been the earliest patient that had it, and I'm not even sure you could say that it was the earliest patient recorded. It's China for **** sake. But, that said, though I think if the virus got out of Wuhan in October, it's possible for someone from Indy to have contracted it in late November but not likely. A lot of people had a mystery illness late last year including me. I'd like to think it was the Rona. Odds are it's not. But it would not be impossible as your post seems to imply. It would only be impossible if the information you're basing it on is true. And it would only be possible if the information I've added to the discourse is true. So there's a lot of distance in between, which I think your version of reality lacks.

So, along with most of the people I know socially who've had the antibody test, it was an exercise in "wouldn't it be great if I didn't have to worry about this." An effort to find security in an insecure time. I understand that.

I'm just looking at the available information that's at least reasonably reliable.

 

[jamil]

My understanding is that presence of antibodies means there is a high likelihood of having been exposed to the virus. Not sure it will change my behavior too much, but it might make my older parents feel more comfortable about having me over to visit.

For me personally, knowing would put me, family, and others at greater ease. Plus, I might get a tee shirt that says something rude.

 

[chipbennett]

And now, for something different. For those who repeatedly, and speciously, claimed that Remdesivir was being touted because it was more expensive and would represent more profit for Gilead:

HHS announces shipments of donated remdesivir for hospitalized patients with COVID-19

Beginning on the evening of May 7, 2020, the process was initiated to deliver cases of the drug to the following states: Connecticut (30 cases), Illinois (140 cases), Iowa (10 cases), Maryland (30 cases), Michigan (40 cases) and New Jersey (110 cases). Each case contains 40 vials of the donated drug...

Gilead Sciences, Inc. committed to supplying approximately 607,000 vials of the experimental drug over the next six weeks to treat an estimated 78,000 hospitalized COVID-19 patients under the EUA granted by the FDA. The donation to the United States is part of 1.5 million vials of remdesivir the company is donating worldwide.

Putting A Price On COVID-19 Treatment Remdesivir

Gilead Sciences, which makes remdesivir, is donating its initial supply of 1.5 million doses, but the company has signaled it will need to start charging for the drug to make production sustainable. It's unclear when that decision might be made.


"Going forward, we will develop an approach that is guided by the principles of affordability and access," Gilead CEO Daniel O'Day told shareholders during the company's annual meeting Wednesday.


In a quarterly financial filing made the same day, Gilead said its investment in remdesivir this year "could be up to $1 billion or more," much of it for scaling up manufacturing capacity.


The company also acknowledged that it's in the spotlight. "[G]iven that COVID-19 has been designated as a pandemic and represents an urgent public health crisis, we are likely to face significant public attention and scrutiny about any future business models and pricing decisions with respect to remdesivir," Gilead said in the quarterly filing.


How will the company balance its business calculations with the drug's potential value to society?


"Gilead has not yet set a price for remdesivir," company spokeswoman Sonia Choi wrote in an email to NPR. "At this time, we are focused on ensuring access to remdesivir through our donation. Post-donation, we are committed to making remdesivir both accessible and affordable to governments and patients around the world."

 

[jamil]

And that worked so well for [STRIKE]global cooling[/STRIKE] [STRIKE]global warming[/STRIKE] climate change

So you have this contraption. Let's call it a model. And you stuff numbers into it. And then it spits numbers out. And you interpret some meaning into those numbers. Like if the Earth's CO2 goes up, you stuff that into the contraption, and it spits out what it thinks the effect will be on the earth's overall temperature. So the numbers are there. It's not for the lack of numbers. It's that there's no guarantee that creators of the model aren't full of ****, and then therefore, all those numbers begot by the other numbers, are nonsense. Of course, the **** they're potentially full of could be intentional ****, like if there's an agenda, or that they just make a lot of false assumptions, or don't actually know the domain they're modeling as well as they think they do.

 

[jamil]

Actually, (and you'll probably get to the relevant post in a few minutes) I'm basing on US information. It was in the US, in places with contact traceable exposure to people from China, probably in December.

That, putting it generously, makes it extraordinarily unlikely that someone in Indiana with no apparent contact with anyone in China would have it in November.



So, along with most of the people I know socially who've had the antibody test, it was an exercise in "wouldn't it be great if I didn't have to worry about this." An effort to find security in an insecure time. I understand that.

I'm just looking at the available information that's at least reasonably reliable.

I'd like you to modify your certainty then to possible but unlikely. There is not much information that's reasonably reliable from which one might be as certain as you seem to be.

 

[foszoe]

How long was it between the illness and the test for antibodies?

I'm willing to amend the "no chance." There's no chance the infection was in late November.

There's still the chance that asymptomatic exposure occurred since then, especially if there were any visits to large gatherings of people in close proximity, or nursing homes.

But, given the admitted vulnerabilities, I'd suspect there would've been more specific signs of COVID.

Again, I mentioned this in Coronavirus III - my circle of friends includes people who were in hotspots in the early stages of actual diagnosis here in the US, got really sick, and don't have the antibodies. Those people actually had "even money" chances of having it and didn't. Someone with no obvious exposure to it, before it was a diagnosis? I'm skeptical.

 

[Alpo]

NSFW...but how bad could it be if a 10 year old Dakota Fanning is in the scene?


[video=youtube_share;7-86VDIfKDM]http://youtu.be/7-86VDIfKDM?t=50[/video]

 

[T.Lex]

I'd like you to modify your certainty then to possible but unlikely. There is not much information that's reasonably reliable from which one might be as certain as you seem to be.

How many zeros after the decimal point before we get to 1 do we say there's zero?

Look, if I'm wrong (which has certainly happened before) and CM has the antibodies, he needs to get himself to a research facility pronto. And I'm not exaggerating because this is the internet. If he has the antibodies, and had them in November, that's critical information that could inform this entire situation. Clearly, he would not be Patient Zero, but he could have come into contact with the person who is.

 

[foszoe]

Do you trust Ohio numbers now or only when it suits you? Do you believe the government is actively attempting to inflate numbers? Would the actions in your statement increase or lower the numbers?

It seems we have people citing numbers with authority when it fits their narrative.

To those doubting this, keep in mind that they are just beginning to look at who may have had this crap. Saw Ohio has now adjusted their date back due to testing of samples of those sick earlier. This has already happened several times in other states. I would expect this to continue. A UK epidemiologist has looked at the spread and believes it likely started in September.

Our shared adages, follow the money and follow the power are in play...

 

[T.Lex]

How long was it between the illness and the test for antibodies?

For my friends, the 2 that I considered the most likely to have had it (and had the antibody test) one was sick late February the other early March (I think it was the week/days before the SIP orders). Tested in early May.

There's one other acquaintance who hasn't had the antibody test that I'm convinced had it in mid-February. Negative flu tests, medically induced coma, vent, but pulled through. It was touch and go, though. Diagnosis was flu, although that may now have been amended.

 

[JettaKnight]

How many zeros after the decimal point before we get to 1 do we say there's zero?

Is this and anti-vax trick question?

 

[jamil]

How many zeros after the decimal point before we get to 1 do we say there's zero?

Look, if I'm wrong (which has certainly happened before) and CM has the antibodies, he needs to get himself to a research facility pronto. And I'm not exaggerating because this is the internet. If he has the antibodies, and had them in November, that's critical information that could inform this entire situation. Clearly, he would not be Patient Zero, but he could have come into contact with the person who is.

Not saying CM has the antibodies. In fact, I said that early, it's unlikely. I think that matches reality. Impossible? Nah. I don't know how many zeros is in the actual probability. I think we're both saying there are enough to say he probably doesn't have the antibodies. But I think you are overly confident that there are significantly more zeros than the current information might produce.

 

[T.Lex]

Not saying CM has the antibodies. In fact, I said that early, it's unlikely. I think that matches reality. Impossible? Nah. I don't know how many zeros is in the actual probability. I think we're both saying there are enough to say he probably doesn't have the antibodies. But I think you are overly confident that there are significantly more zeros than the current information might produce.

 

[nonobaddog]

In case you care about antibodies
Every normal person has antibodies - lots of antibodies and lots of different antibodies, they are part of the immune system that fights to keep us cleaned up.
Each antibody is produced specifically to fight a specific pathogen(virus, bacteria or fungus).
You could have antibodies from every exposure to pathogens in your life, every infection, rash, cold or flu - although some go away with time, some don't.
Antibodies work by attaching to a specific pathogen and either directly making it harmless or tagging it with its presence so other things, such as macrophages, can destroy it or make it harmless.

The antibodies we want to have now are specific to the chinese virus.
Any antibody test has to be specific to the chinese virus antibodies or it is not telling you anything useful. We alreadfy know we have lots of antibodies.
If we have antibodies specific to the chinese virus it means we currently have or had the chinese virus.
The presence of antibodies means the body is currently fighting or has fought the virus - it does not necessarily mean the fight is over and it does not necessarily mean one cannot still spread the virus.
It is very possible to test positive for the virus and positive for the antibodies at the same time.
The first antibodies produced are IgM within about a week of exposure and later IgG within about two weeks of exposure - it helps to know which antibody the test is checking for (or both) to determine the timeline.
Eventually the antibodies should win over the virus - if they lose, you lose.

The antibodies should hang around after the fight and remain ready to fight any new exposure to that specific virus thus giving us immunity. We don't know how long these antibodies will hang around yet or how long they will be effective.

If the virus mutates enough, the existing antibodies can't fight it. Exposure to a sufficiently mutated virus means the whole process has to start over with new antibodies specific to the new pathogen.

Also there is evidence that the virus can safely hide from the antibodies, such as in testicles, for some time.

 

[Ingomike]

Do you trust Ohio numbers now or only when it suits you? Do you believe the government is actively attempting to inflate numbers? Would the actions in your statement increase or lower the numbers?

It seems we have people citing numbers with authority when it fits their narrative.

I'm not citing any numbers. Just passing along that research testing continues to move the date of earliest infection back. If anyone had reason to fudge with these it will be those with an interest in keeping the current narrative...

 

[foszoe]

I'm not citing any numbers. Just passing along that research testing continues to move the date of earliest infection back. If anyone had reason to fudge with these it will be those with an interest in keeping the current narrative...

Do you believe the government is actively attempting to inflate numbers?

 

[T.Lex]

I'm not citing any numbers. Just passing along that research testing continues to move the date of earliest infection back. If anyone had reason to fudge with these it will be those with an interest in keeping the current narrative...

Research testing? You have my interest. The only research testing I'm aware of that is public put the virus in Washington in December.

Anything earlier than that, anywhere else in the US, is based on... modeling.

But like I said, I'm interested in sources for the research testing you mention.

 

[WebSnyper]

I'm thinking that bio conference in Boston was probably the path for it to come here in a meaningful way.

I'm definitely thinking that conference was a vector of transmission back to Indiana, as I understand there were specific attendees who came back to IN and tested positive and had family members in local to me schools. But also thinking there were many other vectors as there was plenty of folks traveling (me included early in Feb) who were in likely hot spots with folks who were coming in from international locations, before we even knew they were hotspots. I attended an event with literally thousands of people in very close proximity and many who had internationally traveled to the event, including from various APAC countries.

To those doubting this, keep in mind that they are just beginning to look at who may have had this crap. Saw Ohio has now adjusted their date back due to testing of samples of those sick earlier. This has already happened several times in other states. I would expect this to continue. A UK epidemiologist has looked at the spread and believes it likely started in September.

Our shared adages, follow the money and follow the power are in play...

Would not surprise me that it could have been much earlier, because certain countries were taking specific steps to not disclose what they knew, while others were ignorant of it.

There's lots of manufacturing and other industries in Indiana. I know we had visitors from California in our factory earlier this year, and probably before. We have sales reps that travel, product shipped from all over, including China. I have friends who have exchange students from China, and sometimes their families visit. I just don't think the chances are all that close to 0. It's just my opinion and what I believe, worth exactly what I'm charging for it.

Agreed, there is a sizable amount of travel, including international that could have brought it in. I don't buy the timelines provided, and wonder if/when we will ever see significant study on the beginnings of it.

Also there is evidence that the virus can safely hide from the antibodies, such as in testicles, for some time.

Well, if it was going to hide somewhere and never be found by another person, that would be the place at least in my case. Not sure if the purple was actually needed or not.