Coronovirus III

[jamil]

Back to the whole face mask discussion. Apparently some people really, really don't want to be forced to wear one.

A security guard is shot and killed after telling customer to put on a face mask

Another COVID-19 related murder. Good luck to any retail establishment expecting an hourly wage employee to enforce these mandatory mask policies.

Wow. It sounds more like he got shot over perceived disrespect than it being just over a mask though. It could as easily have been about shoes. Daughter was told to wear mask or not be served. Daughter left. Mom got pissed. Argument ensued. Mom went home. Dad and son returned. Dad yelled at security guard for disrespecting mom. Another argument ensued. Son shot security guard. When you feel entitled to everything, it feels like the world disrespects you when you don't get your way, and therefore deserves shot. I guess.

 

[BugI02]

What did you think of the article?

Not really seeing an article, just 2 twitter feeds and a video presentation (which I detest). Might go to LA times and see if they ever publish a transcript or something. What do people have against the printed word? I can usually get the gist of an article in 1/3 the time wasted listening to someone plod through their talking points

Any link to a transcript?

 

[jamil]

Some truth is getting out. Other than the profanity I found a great article.

https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1257511091023708161 Posted it not to long ago(the Prof who teaches https://blog.scholasticahq.com/post/course-calling-bull****-interview-carl-bergstrom/

I found the original author of the article now posted in the Latimes.
https://twitter.com/3rdreviewer/status/1257380206257549315

Here is the actual story about covid-19 and the impacts it will have on society.
https://www.latlmes.com/opinion/the-truth-about-covid-19-1

*warning foul language

A video of Rick Astley? That's the actual impact covid-19 will have on society?

We're ****ed.

 

[BugI02]

I have a question, not calling anyone out it's just a question that popped into my head.
Do people or can people get paid for reposting links and getting paid if people click on those links?
All the time is see people post "breaking" or even common news articles on ingo like people dont somehow watch TV or have the same internet access. So I wonder if some people get paid per click?

I post links on INGO because if I don't the first thing people ask for is links, even if it is just my opinion (lookin' at you, snap)

It's easier to post'em while you got 'em than find them again days later. I will agree with you on just dropping a link in a thread without any commentary (lookin' at you GPnumbersletters)

 

[Snapdragon]

I post links on INGO because if I don't the first thing people ask for is links, even if it is just my opinion (lookin' at you, snap)

It's easier to post'em while you got 'em than find them again days later. I will agree with you on just dropping a link in a thread without any commentary (lookin' at you GPnumbersletters)

An opinion is an opinion. It's when there is a mention of 'numbers' that I would like to see data. (Which I still haven't seen, by the way.)

 

[nonobaddog]

Not really seeing an article, just 2 twitter feeds and a video presentation (which I detest). Might go to LA times and see if they ever publish a transcript or something. What do people have against the printed word? I can usually get the gist of an article in 1/3 the time wasted listening to someone plod through their talking points

Any link to a transcript?

Yes, Yes, Yes! Hate those inefficient video clip craps.
Some people are just too thrilled that they can talk and they think others are equally thrilled to hear them.

 

[JettaKnight]

Wow. It sounds more like he got shot over perceived disrespect than it being just over a mask though. It could as easily have been about shoes. Daughter was told to wear mask or not be served. Daughter left. Mom got pissed. Argument ensued. Mom went home. Dad and son returned. Dad yelled at security guard for disrespecting mom. Another argument ensued. Son shot security guard. When you feel entitled to everything, it feels like the world disrespects you when you don't get your way, and therefore deserves shot. I guess.

From the article, I inferred past felony charges - no surprise. Some people never learned how to behave in a polite society. (or pseudo-polite in case of Flint, MI)

 

[BugI02]

Yeah. Whatever. Just don't be thumping your chest saying "We're No. 1 and the greatest country in the world in everything" when we are sliding from that position.

Bragging is is so cliche', BUT it's a travesty when you can't back it up.

I don't have any nines. Go fish.

It seems disingenuous for a supporter of a party that has fought to subordinate real STEM education to gender and intersectional role playing to decry a slump in cutting edge science. Did you ever stop to contemplate the end game of requiring recruitment of X% female post docs and engineers and Y% post docs and engineers of color or Z% non-binary post docs and engineers might result in advancement of something less than the best and brightest and do actual harm?

 

[Alpo]

Wow. It sounds more like he got shot over perceived disrespect than it being just over a mask though. It could as easily have been about shoes. Daughter was told to wear mask or not be served. Daughter left. Mom got pissed. Argument ensued. Mom went home. Dad and son returned. Dad yelled at security guard for disrespecting mom. Another argument ensued. Son shot security guard. When you feel entitled to everything, it feels like the world disrespects you when you don't get your way, and therefore deserves shot. I guess.

And he should be fried in the public square on a cool Tuesday morning. Thugs.

 

[Alpo]

It seems disingenuous for a supporter of a party that has fought to subordinate real STEM education to gender and intersectional role playing to decry a slump in cutting edge science. Did you ever stop to contemplate the end game of requiring recruitment of X% female post docs and engineers and Y% post docs and engineers of color or Z% non-binary post docs and engineers might result in advancement of something less than the best and brightest and do actual harm?

Bull****. YOU guys are the anti-science party. Most scientists are democrats, libertarian or independent.

You are the odd man out. Smart enough to know better, but stubborn enough to love Trump.

Research requires funding and relying on privated industry to fund outside of their strategic direction doesn't happen. They have more than enough demand for their R&D $ internally. My company spent 9% of revenue on R&D and never could finance all the worthy projects.

Industry won't fund virology unless it shows long term benefits to the company. I wouldn't expect them to think otherwise.

This type of R&D requires government grants and assistance. Or large contributions from the wealthy through endowments.

 

[BugI02]

Population Israel: 8.9 million.

Populations USA. 328.2 million

Virology resources in Israel potentially eclipses US efforts?

I'd say that's an embarrassment. Good news, but it sure puts us in the caboose.

Shame

Maybe it just means realizing you have true enemies in the world,instead of pretending all that is important is social justice, sharpens the mind and supports nimble, original thinking

 

[Alpo]

Maybe it just means realizing you have true enemies in the world,instead of pretending all that is important is social justice, sharpens the mind and supports nimble, original thinking

Actually, what it means is that we are more than willing to spend money at DARPA and DOD and little for NIH and CDC.

But then, zowie, $2 trillion spent to buck up the economy. If we had spent 1/10th of that on medical research, we probably would have cured MS, some cancers and been prepared for novel viruses.

 

[BugI02]

I have a sortable table/webpage with State stats available here: https://twnwi.com/States.php Density does seem to have some variable as seven of the 10 most dense states are in the top 10 deaths per million.

Although 8 of the top 10 states also have Democrat Governors.... so....

Although it is tempting to conclude having a Democrat for a governor is even deadlier than having a high population density, I think I will bow to the lessons of history. Crowded cities, with their structurally low sanitation standards and capabilities, have always been at a disadvantage in epidemics long before there were such things as Democrats and Republicans. It just becomes a lesson in being prepared, no politician makes much of a difference in the jaws of the crisis but those who already were encouraging social distancing through 'urban sprawl' were ahead of the game from the start.

Driving your own car to where you want to go is the epitome of social distancing; buses, trains and subways not so much

 

[Ingomike]

No. And I think both of those observations reveal a misunderstanding of modeling. It isn't predicting winning lottery numbers.

And when the IHME was predicting fewer daily deaths, then that certainly wasn't crying "wolf," right?


Perhaps a tweak to that analogy would be if the squirrel jumped off a branch and landed +/- 5% of the distance to the nut, then it would be a successful jump.

I think it is part of human nature to try and discern what will happen next, even if it is based on incomplete data. (Maybe MOST when it is based on incomplete data.)

I've only looked at mainstream models, and accept them for what they are. Imperfect tools to inform imperfect plans implemented by imperfect people. Mechanical precision should not be expected.

Actually, no misunderstanding likely by either of us. The models were used by the media, first and foremost, then later politicians to scare and gain submission of the people, commonly known as sheeple. The models were used by those promoting the shutdown of the American economy both within and out of the Trump administration. They were used to create a situation that could not be politically ignored by crying wolf.

We cannot even accurately predict weather but I'll bet with enough media scaremongering and pseudoscience models they could convince the masses the world was ending, basically as they did here...

That is not what models are for, I believe we have agreement on that...

 

[BugI02]

Bull****. YOU guys are the anti-science party. Most scientists are democrats, libertarian or independent.

You are the odd man out. Smart enough to know better, but stubborn enough to love Trump.

Research requires funding and relying on privated industry to fund outside of their strategic direction doesn't happen. They have more than enough demand for their R&D $ internally. My company spent 9% of revenue on R&D and never could finance all the worthy projects.

Industry won't fund virology unless it shows long term benefits to the company. I wouldn't expect them to think otherwise.

This type of R&D requires government grants and assistance. Or large contributions from the wealthy through endowments.

Then please explain Bell Labs and/or Xerox Parc. They were not dependent on government largesse, and intellectual stars would compete to work there because of the freedom not the salaries (not to say that those were stingy, though)

To me; government, when involved in research at all, should be supporting research into far future technology that may eventually be needed like fusion or Thorium cycle power generation and high density electrical storage with fast discharge capability for using renewable power generation for peaking. When government gets too involved in near future tech, you have the crony capitalism/picking winners and losers issues. Think NASA in cutting edge aeronautics. Companies should feel the need to do the research so they will be rewarded with a desireable process or product's market success, not get paid to do the research whether it is useful or not. The latter is how you get research on the flower preference of drunken honeybees

Hiring the best and brightest and giving them a little time and company resources, to use as they wished, worked out pretty well. Even the work done at Apple in the Jobs days was impressive. The model of slavish devotion of all of a successful company's resources to pursuits revolving around stock price has just meant that disruptive technology arises from outside the firm and generates competition rather than arising from within and generating new products

 

[dusty88]

If you are interested in how the models are developed, discussed, and modified there is a webinar on right now . The recording will be up later at niss.org

https://www.niss.org/events/nissasa-webinar-covid-19-and-role-modeling

 

[foszoe]

K

Then please explain Bell Labs and/or Xerox Parc. They were...

Key word highlighted. Do we have such private endeavors now? Hard to compete with gov't money

 

[Alpo]

Then please explain Bell Labs and/or Xerox Parc. They were not dependent on government largesse, and intellectual stars would compete to work there because of the freedom not the salaries (not to say that those were stingy, though)

To me; government, when involved in research at all, should be supporting research into far future technology that may eventually be needed like fusion or Thorium cycle power generation and high density electrical storage with fast discharge capability for using renewable power generation for peaking. When government gets too involved in near future tech, you have the crony capitalism/picking winners and losers issues. Think NASA in cutting edge aeronautics. Companies should feel the need to do the research so they will be rewarded with a desireable process or product's market success, not get paid to do the research whether it is useful or not. The latter is how you get research on the flower preference of drunken honeybees

Hiring the best and brightest and giving them a little time and company resources, to use as they wished, worked out pretty well. Even the work done at Apple in the Jobs days was impressive. The model of slavish devotion of all of a successful company's resources to pursuits revolving around stock price has just meant that disruptive technology arises from outside the firm and generates competition rather than arising from within and generating new products

Those are all worthy projects. So is medicine. If it wasn't obvious that an object less than 130 nanometers can take out a billion dollar aircraft carrier, it should be at this point. You don't need nukes....just a smallpox blanket.

 

[T.Lex]

That is not what models are for, I believe we have agreement on that...

Well, "that" which you posted has alot to unpack.

The models are to help policymakers make better policy and for us, the governed, to understand why those policies are being put into place.

To that end, the models absolutely helped. Based on the mainstream models, they were accurate enough based on then-available data to inform solid policymaking. Sure, fault can always be found in narrow applications.

To the extent people were alarmed by the numbers, that was rational. Those were alarming numbers early on.

To the extent people use those early numbers to say there was never a danger, that is irrational.

The purpose of the models is to forecast. They did that and continue to do that reasonably well (at least the ones that I look at).

 

[doddg]

Do you in any feel like you have been duped by their previous predictions and models? I feel like they are the boy still crying "wolf".

But, maybe like a blind squirrel they will finally find a nut they can claim and then leave us to move on...

In any scientific model of prediction, statistically it should be correct more than half the time and incorrect the other half.
We usually get the "dire" model, which has to dialed down as reality reveals itself.

Funny, how the model predictions are always an over-reach, & not ever an under-reach.
Over-reach sells.