Coronovirus III

[Alpo]

Maybe if we didnt waste hundreds of millions of witch hunts?

There is a recipe.

Someone put it away and we now have lost it.

We better find it quick.

 

[nonobaddog]

Just what are you smoking tonight?

 

[qwerty]

The most densely populated of those 7 states is Arkansas which has less than 1/3 the population density of Indiana. Several of the states have 1/10th the population density.

Not comparable in the least

None of those states remained completely open and no matter what they call their measures, some are tough to distinguish from what Indiana did. Look at these websites...if you want truth...and CNN is an interesting place to try to find it, and tell be ANY of those states "stayed open".

https://www.healthy.arkansas.gov/programs-services/topics/novel-coronavirus

https://coronavirus.iowa.gov/pages/proclamations

COVID-19 Nebraska Guidance Documents (reopening guidelines? I thought the never closed.)

https://ndresponse.gov/covid-19-resources/covid-19-business-and-employer-resources/nd-smart-restart (Hey, ND, how do you have a "smart restart" if you never stopped?)

https://doh.sd.gov/documents/COVID19/COVID_SDPlan_BackToNormal.pdf (Wait, back to normal plan? I thought...)

https://coronavirus.utah.gov/

https://health.wyo.gov/publichealth...vel-coronavirus/covid-19-orders-and-guidance/

Maybe these governors were just smart enough to not call their measures a "stay at home" order.

Now do Florida

FL population: 21.48 million population density: 353.4 people/sq. mile WuVid 19 deaths: 1399 Deaths/ 1 million: 68

IN population: 6.73 million population density: 184.9 people/sq. mile WuVid 19 deaths: 1264 Deaths/ 1 million: 190

Florida went with far less draconian measures. Please compare and contrast in such a way to support your contention that this is driven by population density

I have a sortable table/webpage with State stats available here: https://twnwi.com/States.php Density does seem to have some variable as seven of the 10 most dense states are in the top 10 deaths per million.

Although 8 of the top 10 states also have Democrat Governors.... so....

 

[DoggyDaddy]

There is a recipe.

Someone put it away and we now have lost it.

We better find it quick.

I don't think that I can take it. Cause it took so long to bake it, and I'll never have that recipe again.

 

[Snapdragon]

I don't think that I can take it. Cause it took so long to bake it, and I'll never have that recipe again.

What you did there, I see it.

 

[DoggyDaddy]

What you did there, I see it.

Always loved that song.

 

[ghuns]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/murder-hornets-honeybees-united-states/

I am old enough to remember when the scourge of the "killer bees" was going to spell our doom.

Not fallin for that s**t again.

 

[DoggyDaddy]

I am old enough to remember when the scourge of the "killer bees" was going to spell our doom.

Not fallin for that s**t again.

I remember that too...

 

[Karl-just-Karl]

https://nypost.com/2020/05/04/can-p...hell-as-the-coronavirus-cancels-summer-camps/

Is this satire? Because it reads like satire.

I wonder why some people think our society has gone off the rails with a sense of entitlement and privilege.

 

[Mgderf]

I remember that too...

OH CRAP!
They have to be parents ALL SUMMER!!!?

 

[T.Lex]

Density does seem to have some variable as seven of the 10 most dense states are in the top 10 deaths per million.

Although 8 of the top 10 states also have Democrat Governors.... so....

That's been a long-time correlation, that with greater population density, there is a trend toward liberalism.

 

[drillsgt]

Back to the whole face mask discussion. Apparently some people really, really don't want to be forced to wear one.

A security guard is shot and killed after telling customer to put on a face mask

Another COVID-19 related murder. Good luck to any retail establishment expecting an hourly wage employee to enforce these mandatory mask policies.

Ah Flint, MI, my old stomping ground, I know where this is. It's just north of the University of Michigan-Flint campus. That campus is smaller but sort of like IUPUI downtown. Around campus is okay but turns to crap shortly outside it's boundaries.

 

[Phase2]

This is happening over and over and over...

Low-Quality Masks Infiltrate U.S. Coronavirus Supply

Recent tests by the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health found that about 60% of 67 different types of imported masks tested allowed in more tiny particles in at least one sample than U.S. standards normally permit.

One mask that Niosh tested, sold in packaging bearing unauthorized Food and Drug Administration logos, filtered out as little as 35% of particles. Another, marked KN95, a Chinese standard similar to N95, had one sample test below 15%, far short of the 95% it advertised

Don't trust China. China is a-hole.

 

[T.Lex]

IHME updated their model yesterday.

Now predicting 134k deaths by August 4. There's a bit of a lag, so they updated their model yesterday, but the last day for actual deaths-reported was May 1. Their projections for May 2-4 are on the high side this time. They're saying 112k by June 1. That last data point is almost exactly aligned with the unfrozen caveman speculation based on the rolling 5 day average.

Apparently, they're assuming that the current protocols will hold the numbers steady.

I don't think there's any real way to account for relaxation of the protocols.

 

[foszoe]

I don't think there's any real way to account for relaxation of the protocols.

We've been at this long enough to talk history now.

Any sites tracking model predictions against actual results? IF those don't match up, then it's not just the relaxation that can't be accounted for.

Don't take this post as a questioning of the science of prevention. I consider that different from the science of modelling.

 

[JettaKnight]

Maybe if we didnt waste hundreds of millions of witch hunts?

Money spent toward locking up Hillary is well spent, IMHO.

 

[Trigger Time]

Money spent toward locking up Hillary is well spent, IMHO.

Well since she actually broke the law and compromised national security, yes I agree. Too bad the justice system is corrupt

 

[Ingomike]

IHME updated their model yesterday.

Now predicting 134k deaths by August 4. There's a bit of a lag, so they updated their model yesterday, but the last day for actual deaths-reported was May 1. Their projections for May 2-4 are on the high side this time. They're saying 112k by June 1. That last data point is almost exactly aligned with the unfrozen caveman speculation based on the rolling 5 day average.

Apparently, they're assuming that the current protocols will hold the numbers steady.

I don't think there's any real way to account for relaxation of the protocols.

Do you in any feel like you have been duped by their previous predictions and models? I feel like they are the boy still crying "wolf".

But, maybe like a blind squirrel they will finally find a nut they can claim and then leave us to move on...

 

[T.Lex]

We've been at this long enough to talk history now.

Any sites tracking model predictions against actual results? IF those don't match up, then it's not just the relaxation that can't be accounted for.

Don't take this post as a questioning of the science of prevention. I consider that different from the science of modelling.

No worries.

But, I know one unfrozen caveman amateur epidemiological statistician that does track error rate. But, unapologetically, that has also evolved.

When I started, there was exponential growth, so I had a couple ways to predict a couple days ahead. (That's the furthest I would consider the unfrozen caveman approach to work.) After the shift from exponential to (roughly) linear, those exponential growth models had HUGE discrepencies. (I still track them, but more as a novelty.)

Using the post-4/1 average and rolling 5 day average, those have average error rates for any given day of less than 5% (~4% and ~3% respectively). Let me be clear about how I'm calculating that. Each prior day forecasts a total dead number for the next day. That expectation of total dead is within 5% of what actually gets reported.

I think I said this early on, but I would never rely on my approach for long-term modeling or policymaking. But, if trying to plan for a few days out, then the unfrozen caveman model has been pretty good.

And, it can help right-size expectations for further out. That is, there is the introductory "Based on current trends...." we could hit 150k dead people by July.

One could probably calculate each iterative error rate for the IHME predictions, because I believe they open source their model, or at least the data. I don't really have the time or interest for that rabbit hole.

Do you in any feel like you have been duped by their previous predictions and models? I feel like they are the boy still crying "wolf".

No. And I think both of those observations reveal a misunderstanding of modeling. It isn't predicting winning lottery numbers.

And when the IHME was predicting fewer daily deaths, then that certainly wasn't crying "wolf," right?

But, maybe like a blind squirrel they will finally find a nut they can claim and then leave us to move on...

Perhaps a tweak to that analogy would be if the squirrel jumped off a branch and landed +/- 5% of the distance to the nut, then it would be a successful jump.

I think it is part of human nature to try and discern what will happen next, even if it is based on incomplete data. (Maybe MOST when it is based on incomplete data.)

I've only looked at mainstream models, and accept them for what they are. Imperfect tools to inform imperfect plans implemented by imperfect people. Mechanical precision should not be expected.

 

[nonobaddog]

Predicting the future based on extrapolating current trends is never easy.

Current trends > (stuff happens) > trend changes.