Coronovirus III

[foszoe]

Remdesivir is cheap

I smell rats in that post. Fauci has involvement in remdesivir and it is on patent may have financial interests as well. Fauci was very against the hydrochloroquine and it has few defenders other than doctors who prescribe it because it is off patent and cheap. Would love to see an American billionaire fund a head to head proper study and see which is best and best for the money...

Transmission will be transmission, there is no reducing, only delaying. Other doctors have said delaying herd immunity may cause more deaths in the long run...

The unvarnished truth is even the best and brightest have no sure idea what to do but the media is scaring folks into thinking staying home is the right thing...

 

[nonobaddog]

Early in the pandemic there was a sharp spike in excess deaths over the normal expected. Some of these were reported as caused by the chinese virus. Many were not. It is strange there would be such a sharp increase in deaths right at the same time.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/inve...covid-19-death-toll-undercounted/?arc404=true

 

[smokingman]

If that where true the CDC would not have taken down the excess deaths page that showed most of the USA having 30-60% more deaths for the last two months vs the average of the last 5 years(they had it broken down to individual counties not just states).

This one. https://wwwdev.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

New York Times put up a few of the charts though.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/28/us/coronavirus-death-toll-total.html


I was wrong. They did not take it down,just revised it from the original dev stage to a final public one.Still shows daily deaths spike by 10-21k above daily averages. Removed county and state level data and all but one chart.
Here is the link.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

So wouldn't we have all the deaths of the past and C-19 deaths added to that and thereby expect an increase? No one is saying C-19 does not kill some people, just like all the reasons folks die in the past it is a new category adding to the total, but none of those others, including flu, were cause for the complete devastation of our economy and way of life.

Many do not seem to understand the economic issues are not even so much from our shut down. Look at Ford or GM they where already laying off people more than a month prior to stay at home orders,because of a lack of parts.

I seriously doubt Ford or GM restart even with no stay at home orders based on shipping from China(still a lack of parts).

The world wide supply line to make a product is hopefully done. Best case we learn to make things in the USA again. It is possibly one silver lining in all of this,the end of globalization.

The other thing that changed on the CDC page are years. Now it only goes back 3 not 5.

 

[foszoe]

Miscalculations at Every Level Left U.S. Unequipped to Fight Coronavirus https://www.wsj.com/articles/miscal...s-unequipped-to-fight-coronavirus-11588170921

 

[Ingomike]

Remdesivir is cheap

What is the cost of a course of each?

 

[Ingomike]

Many do not seem to understand the economic issues are not even so much from our shut down. Look at Ford or GM they where already laying off people more than a month prior to stay at home orders,because of a lack of parts.

I seriously doubt Ford or GM restart even with no stay at home orders based on shipping from China(still a lack of parts).

The world wide supply line to make a product is hopefully done. Best case we learn to make things in the USA again. It is possibly one silver lining in all of this,the end of globalization.

The other thing that changed on the CDC page are years. Now it only goes back 3 not 5.

We are in full agreement on this.

You had a fascinating post on the status of the container ships between the US and China, any update on imports?

 

[Ingomike]

If that where true the CDC would not have taken down the excess deaths page that showed most of the USA having 30-60% more deaths for the last two months vs the average of the last 5 years(they had it broken down to individual counties not just states).

This one. https://wwwdev.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

New York Times put up a few of the charts though.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/28/us/coronavirus-death-toll-total.html


I was wrong. They did not take it down,just revised it from the original dev stage to a final public one.Still shows daily deaths spike by 10-21k above daily averages. Removed county and state level data and all but one chart.
Here is the link.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

So wouldn't we have all the deaths of the past and C-19 deaths added to that and thereby expect an increase? No one is saying C-19 does not kill some people, just like all the reasons folks die in the past it is a new category adding to the total, but none of those others, including flu, were cause for the complete devastation of our economy and way of life.

Any response to my question in the first sentence?

 

[smokingman]

We are in full agreement on this.

You had a fascinating post on the status of the container ships between the US and China, any update on imports?

https://theloadstar.com/idle-containership-fleet-set-to-hit-record-high-of-three-million-teu/
[FONT=&quot]Idled containership capacity is expected to reach a record high of 3m teu within weeks, in the “worst capacity crisis the industry has ever seen”, according to new data from Alphaliner.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]With over 250 sailings already withdrawn in the second quarter, the consultant forecasts that the lay-ups will push the idle fleet to a level twice that seen during the 2009 global financial crisis.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]“No market segment will be spared, with capacity cuts announced across almost all key routes,” warned Alphaliner.

[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]https://www.joc.com/maritime-news/carrier-capacity-cuts-take-idle-fleet-record-numbers_20200226.html

“This interconnectedness is the reason why intra-Asian container volumes are an early indicator of what will be exported on the long-distance trades out of Asia,” Sand noted in a BIMCO container shipping outlook. “Manufacturing in China, therefore, is not alone in facing problems; knock-on effects will be felt by manufacturing and exports throughout the region.”[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Over the past three weeks, 30 percent to 60 percent of weekly outbound capacity has been withdrawn from the Asia-Europe and trans-Pacific trades, as well as from the intra-Asia routes, according to Alphaliner. The reopening of factories in China would see a gradual return of demand, but the analyst said cargo volume recovery was expected to take a few weeks, and until normal volume was reached, carriers would continue to selectively implement blank sailings, likely until the end of March. (It is the end of April and this is still happening)

[/FONT]
[h=1]Ocean Carriers Idle Container Ships in Droves on Falling Trade Demand[/h][h=2]More than 10% of the global boxship fleet are anchored as Western markets lock down against the coronavirus pandemic[/h]
https://www.wsj.com/articles/contai...in-droves-on-falling-trade-demand-11586359002

Container ship operators have idled a record 13% of their capacity over the past month as carriers at the foundation of global supply chains buckle down while restrictions under the coronavirus pandemic batter trade demand.
Maritime data provider Alphaliner said in a report Wednesday that shipping lines have withdrawn vessels with capacity totaling about 3 million containers in efforts to conserve cash and maintain freight rates.
Alphaliner, based in Paris, said more than 250 scheduled sailings will be canceled in the second quarter alone, with up to a third of capacity taken out in some trade routes. The biggest cutbacks so far have hit the world’s main trade lanes, the Asia-Europe and trans-Pacific routes.

 

[dusty88]

I think this is a good, quick read and an important perspective. It's from an ER doc in southern Indiana that's been writing some public facebook posts recently. You should be able to see it even without a facebook account

https://www.facebook.com/ericbyazel/posts/118615086487366?__tn__=H-R-R

 

[smokingman]

Any response to my question in the first sentence?

April 11,2020
Deaths 79,761

April 11,2019
55,625

April 11,2018
55,534

April 15,2017
54,969

Did that answer the question?

 

[chipbennett]

I smell rats in that post. Fauci has involvement in remdesivir and it is on patent may have financial interests as well. Fauci was very against the hydrochloroquine and it has few defenders other than doctors who prescribe it because it is off patent and cheap. Would love to see an American billionaire fund a head to head proper study and see which is best and best for the money...

All new drugs are "on patent". It's part of a New Drug Application (NDA). When a drug goes "off-patent", other manufacturers file Amended New Drug Applications (ANDAs), which is how generics then get marketed. There is nothing unusual about Remdesivir in that regard.

I'm curious why so many people keep asserting how much more expensive Remdesivir is going to be than Hydroxychloroquine.

 

[d.kaufman]

April 11,2020
Deaths 79,761

April 11,2019
55,625

April 11,2018
55,534

April 15,2017
54,969

Did that answer the question?

Jumping late and haven't seen what these numbers are suppose to pertain to for sure.
I'm assuming that past years numbers are Flu deaths and this years numbers are Kung Flu and regular Flu combined? Is that what you're saying thise numbers are?

 

[chipbennett]

You made a claim that a family of four gets $70K in benefits (I show it's lower).

No, I don't think that you showed that.

You made a claim that a family of four gets cut off from all benefits with a $30K AGI (I show it's higher).

Not meaningfully lower.

Ergo, your claim of this insurmountable gaps is not true, or at least not nearly as big as you claim it is.

EDIT: It's worth noting the poverty threshold for that family of four is about $25K.

There is no way that you can come to that conclusion. You showed that the numbers have changed somewhat. In no way whatsoever did you demonstrate that the gap is either not there, or there, but not insurmountable.

The reason that I'm not quibbling about the numbers on either end is because the precise numbers don't matter for purposes of the point I was trying to make: that the system incentivizes staying on government assistance, and actively makes it difficult to get to a parity of standard of living without any government assistance.

Allow me to illustrate the point (cite):

View attachment 86686

These numbers are from 2015. Do you see where the cliff is? Do you recognize that there is, in fact, a cliff at all? And read the article, to get an idea of magnitude of the gap created by that cliff. (And the source is WaPo, and critical of a particular claim made in a similar vein. So, it's not something that I reference because it is a source biased in my favor.)

And, again, if you want to quibble over the precise numbers, you're missing the forest for the trees.

 

[Ingomike]

April 11,2020
Deaths 79,761

April 11,2019
55,625

April 11,2018
55,534

April 15,2017
54,969

Did that answer the question?

So we saw an increase of 25,000 in April as compared to April in previous years.

That begs the question, is this shutdown worthy of that number? If we shutdown every year could we save that in other categories or situations? Why has then been covered so breathlessly compared to other causes?

 

[chipbennett]

What is the cost of a course of each?

Zero, thus far, since there hasn't been a single course of either given under market authorization.

 

[Trigger Time]

Seen today on the news they are going to start trying to go back to tracking people that a person with covid19 has contact with in Indiana. They will ask for a list of 10 or so names and then contact those people and ask them to self isolate for 10 days and test some maybe. They said they will also notify local health departments of those peoples name. Obviously for enforcement of a backdoor quarantine.
**** that. I will not comply with this.
Death rate of .1%
Same as the flu.
Killing our country's economy and the American workers livelihood while politicians still get fat

 

[smokingman]

Jumping late and haven't seen what these numbers are suppose to pertain to for sure.
I'm assuming that past years numbers are Flu deaths and this years numbers are Kung Flu and regular Flu combined? Is that what you're saying thise numbers are?

If that where true the CDC would not have taken down the excess deaths page that showed most of the USA having 30-60% more deaths for the last two months vs the average of the last 5 years(they had it broken down to individual counties not just states).

This one. https://wwwdev.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

New York Times put up a few of the charts though.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/28/us/coronavirus-death-toll-total.html


I was wrong. They did not take it down,just revised it from the original dev stage to a final public one.Still shows daily deaths spike by 10-21k above daily averages. Removed county and state level data and all but one chart.
Here is the link.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

CDC total deaths by date and year at the last link.

 

[smokingman]

Jumping late and haven't seen what these numbers are suppose to pertain to for sure.
I'm assuming that past years numbers are Flu deaths and this years numbers are Kung Flu and regular Flu combined? Is that what you're saying thise numbers are?

If that where true the CDC would not have taken down the excess deaths page that showed most of the USA having 30-60% more deaths for the last two months vs the average of the last 5 years(they had it broken down to individual counties not just states).

This one. https://wwwdev.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

New York Times put up a few of the charts though.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/28/us/coronavirus-death-toll-total.html


I was wrong. They did not take it down,just revised it from the original dev stage to a final public one.Still shows daily deaths spike by 10-21k above daily averages. Removed county and state level data and all but one chart.
Here is the link.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

So we saw an increase of 25,000 in April as compared to April in previous years.

That begs the question, is this shutdown worthy of that number? If we shutdown every year could we save that in other categories or situations? Why has then been covered so breathlessly compared to other causes?

Not for April. It is for one week in April.

 

[d.kaufman]

Not for April. It is for one week in April.

Ok then. So what does this actually tell us? We know there wasn't 25k deaths attributed to Covid in 1 day.
One could assume the uptick in deaths could be attributed to people not going to DR for other illnesses, suicides, etc. And that uptick could be directly correlated to the shutdown.
Kind of gives me another reason why we need to end this s**show now.

 

[Trigger Time]

Mortality rate 0.12 to 0.2 %

No reason to stay shut down. If you are vulnerable, then stay isolated and use ppe.

https://m.washingtontimes.com/news/...9m1QOOmknXWzlF-SQtqsv7UmdUYxmIVqbQu6Sh4Gpr1Dw