Coronavirus

[Rookie]

STOP SPREADING RUMORS!!! Aldi cashier told my Mother-in-law today that the Indiana Nat Guard was called up to "take over Indianapolis" and to shelter in place. She was scared...sigh. My wife texted me about it. I was at work and turned to my co-worker who is rank in the Ind Nat Guard and he rolled his eyes. This crap only serves to fan the flames of panic and make life for the rest of us that much more difficult.

My daughter tried to convince me that the national guard had set up at 26 and 31 to shut down traffic in and out of Kokomo. I asked if she actually saw this, and she told me her friend told her. I told her that her friend was either stupid or lying.

 

[Sylvain]

It is in the air for at least 3 hours. Even then the viral load in the air is only reduced by 50%
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10....eE5mg1TKXAfWwVH7E8URzofzKBHYoy2k9LF5wM1ldGW90

But yes outside air for the most part should be safe unless you are in a crowd.

I meant it's not in the air where there's no people.
It's safe for a farmer to be outside all day when the nearest person is miles away.

 

[smokingman]

Sadly an amazon night shift employee in New York city has tested positive.
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/amazon-warehouse-employee-has-coronavirus/608341/


Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, a Republican from Florida, and Rep. Ben McAdams, a Democrat from Utah, confirmed earlier today that they had contracted the coronavirus.https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-03-19-20-intl-hnk/index.html


Found a very small study in Italy on a treatment for covid-19 that worked for a few patients in 6 days. I am honestly not sure how reliable the information is,but as there are larger studies on the exact drugs used I view it as possibly a reason to be optimistic.Again it is a draft of a very small study.
https://www.mediterranee-infection....2020/03/Hydroxychloroquine_final_DOI_IJAA.pdf

Turns out I was correct to question how reliable the information was. Understanding fully now how this paper came into being I am now going to label this as false hope.
Just like the 22 companies who have claimed they where close to a vaccine(-1 who actually has trials going in WA).

Broker says he wasn’t involved in producing the Google doc, and would never advocate the use of a drug without formal trials. Todaro and Rigano have since removed his name from it, at Broker’s request. “I neither contributed to, wrote any part of, nor had knowledge of this google.com document. I have never conducted research on RNA virus pathogens. … I have no professional credentials or authority to suggest or recommend clinical trials or practices,” Broker wrote in an email. “Apparently I was inserted as a ‘gratuitous’ author, a practice that I have always avoided over my 53-year career. Moreover, I have never engaged any part of social media, privately or professionally. All of my scientific publications are processed through peer review. I suggest that you communicate with one of the actual authors
https://www.wired.com/story/an-old-malaria-drug-may-fight-covid-19-and-silicon-valleys-into-it/

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[maxwelhse]

The problem is most of our minds have a hard time with exponential spread. You can not look at where you are now. To plan,to make any difference you have to look at where you will be 2-3 weeks from now or even further where you will be in a month.

Given New York alone reported over 1200 cases today while admitting they are severely behind in testing with estimates of infected in the high tens of thousands by the mayor of New York. Where will that be in 2-3 weeks with RO anywhere from 2.3(WHO) to 6.7(Los Almos national lab)? In two weeks New York city alone could have near total saturation if nothing is done.
https://www.pscp.tv/w/1gqxvEBNwAWJB
If you want to read it. Here is the covid-19 100 page Federal US report leaked by the New York times.
It has some amazing insight into how not prepared we are. It assumes no wide spread community infections in the USA.
More shocking than that is it was released late February.
https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthe...367f758bec47cad361f/optimized/full.pdf#page=1

I agree with you, which is why I think it's important that researchers carefully study the cruise ship passengers that have been exposed and monitor the rate of progression, and more importantly, death. Cities can run projections, but that's all they really are. Those passengers were exposed in a genuine worst-case scenario for weeks and they were some of the earliest exposures.

So... We'll monitor their microcosm and extrapolate to a larger dataset as that information becomes available. That's legitimately the best case study we're going to have until this is over.

My genuine belief is if this was as bad as we're being told it was (and how people are behaving) that half of those passengers would already be dead. Not being willing to run actual math again , I'll say that not even a large fraction of those folks are even sick. People are acting as if we're all gonna die.

 

[Sylvain]

My daughter tried to convince me that the national guard had set up at 26 and 31 to shut down traffic in and out of Kokomo. I asked if she actually saw this, and she told me her friend told her. I told her that her friend was either stupid or lying.

Or both.

 

[T.Lex]

I'll say that not even a large fraction of those folks are even sick. People are acting as if we're all gonna die.

I don't think that's quite right.

I think people are acting as if we don't know who is going to die, but it will probably be someone older than us. (Except for CM. No one is older than him.)

The family-unit isolation is not a way to mitigate deaths, but a way to mitigate spread to vulnerable populations. IMHO, that is being properly communicated.

 

[DoggyDaddy]

Ordered shelter in place or not, plenty of people will ignore it. There aren’t any good options for dealing with those people, or even disproving whatever story they give for being out of the house. Maybe they can scare a few more into staying inside, but that’s about it.

They've already been saying that Marion County along with some others is supposed to be "essential travel" only, meaning to get groceries, medicine, etc..

 

[Mark-DuCo]

They've already been saying that Marion County along with some others is supposed to be "essential travel" only, meaning to get groceries, medicine, etc..

Were supposed to be under that too in Dubois Co. except most people still have to get to work because nobody is shutting down and we can't afford to get fired.

 

[Sylvain]

Were supposed to be under that too in Dubois Co. except most people still have to get to work because nobody is shutting down and we can't afford to get fired.

Going to work is essential travel for most people, unless you can work for home.

 

[maxwelhse]

I don't think that's quite right.

I think people are acting as if we don't know who is going to die, but it will probably be someone older than us. (Except for CM. No one is older than him.)

The family-unit isolation is not a way to mitigate deaths, but a way to mitigate spread to vulnerable populations. IMHO, that is being properly communicated.

I think we're splitting hairs. I don't think social distancing and shelter in place are necessarily bad ideas, but I do think emptying every grocery store in the country in under a week is far too much panic.

Short of the general following of the rule of law, if you told me every grocery store in the country got emptied in the same week, I'd have bet money it was because everyone thought we were all going to die. That's where my mind is at when I say that. My normal expectation would be that they had been emptied from looting, but this is pretty freaking close. I don't believe any of this warrants that reaction.

 

[OurDee]

I don't think that's quite right.

I think people are acting as if we don't know who is going to die, but it will probably be someone older than us. (Except for CM. No one is older than him.)

The family-unit isolation is not a way to mitigate deaths, but a way to mitigate spread to vulnerable populations. IMHO, that is being properly communicated.

I am so sad this day. I only met CM one time. To think that I'll never see him again. If I just had the money for that 686. We know it will be a closed coffin funeral. May be they will have some black and white photos we can look at.

 

[T.Lex]

I think we're splitting hairs. I don't think social distancing and shelter in place are necessarily bad ideas, but I do think emptying every grocery store in the country in under a week is far too much panic.

Short of the general following of the rule of law, if you told me every grocery store in the country got emptied in the same week, I'd have bet money it was because everyone thought we were all going to die. That's where my mind is at when I say that. My normal expectation would be that they had been emptied from looting, but this is pretty freaking close. I don't believe any of this warrants that reaction.

We certainly might be talking around each other.

But, I think you're reading too much into the result - empty shelves - and not enough into what's actually being said. People are going to have to spend more time at home, and can't eat out for the foreseeable future. That totally makes sense to me that they'd stock up on food and items necessary to do that.

Too many people live paycheck to paycheck, and that means they aren't exactly keeping a stockpile at home. Even people who have savings weren't very likely to have more than a week's worth of food at home. It was too easy to get stuff from the grocery on the weekend. From what I can tell, almost every week they went at the same time I did.

 

[maxwelhse]

I am so sad this day. I only met CM one time. To think that I'll never see him again. If I just had the money for that 686. We know it will be a closed coffin funeral. May be they will have some black and white photos we can look at.

...stone carved portraits from his young. Perhaps even a rubbing from his first cave graffiti.

 

[T.Lex]

I am so sad this day. I only met CM one time. To think that I'll never see him again. If I just had the money for that 686. We know it will be a closed coffin funeral. May be they will have some black and white photos we can look at.

I think there's caves in Germany that have some of the earliest pictographs of him.

But no, news of his extinction is greatly exaggerated, as far as I know.

 

[Alpo]

I used to see the same thing in Florida every hurricane season. Announce a hurricane possibly headed to the Florida Coast and the lumber companies sell out of plywood, generators are bought out, grocery stores empty?

I always wondered why people didn't have lumber from the last hurricane....don't they save it and put it up in the same spot? I dunno.

I remember telling a neighbor to make a list of the most critical things to take with her if she had to evacuate. No 1 on her list was her grandmother's treadle sewing machine. Not food, paper moey, water, knife, flashlight.....a friggin sewing machine!

 

[smokingman]

I agree with you, which is why I think it's important that researchers carefully study the cruise ship passengers that have been exposed and monitor the rate of progression, and more importantly, death. Cities can run projections, but that's all they really are. Those passengers were exposed in a genuine worst-case scenario for weeks and they were some of the earliest exposures.

So... We'll monitor their microcosm and extrapolate to a larger dataset as that information becomes available. That's legitimately the best case study we're going to have until this is over.

My genuine belief is if this was as bad as we're being told it was (and how people are behaving) that half of those passengers would already be dead. Not being willing to run actual math again , I'll say that not even a large fraction of those folks are even sick. People are acting as if we're all gonna die.

I find the cruise ship data interesting,but not a base line for cases. I do not consider it a worst case either. I checked and the rooms have individual heating and air systems. Worst case in my mind would be if they had central heating and air. A single building that did would be a better case study. And while yes many on that ship had plenty of exposure,still only around 42% actually became infected. I did find the case in I think in Toronto from the cruise ship interesting,only in the fact they tested negative 3 times in 2 weeks only to test positive 21 days after leaving the ship.

I think some of the cruise ship data is valuable,but it is by no means a picture of infection rates or even death rates as all of the people on that ship received first class medical care.Something that may not be possible in a broader sense.

 

[maxwelhse]

We certainly might be talking around each other.

But, I think you're reading too much into the result - empty shelves - and not enough into what's actually being said. People are going to have to spend more time at home, and can't eat out for the foreseeable future. That totally makes sense to me that they'd stock up on food and items necessary to do that.

Too many people live paycheck to paycheck, and that means they aren't exactly keeping a stockpile at home. Even people who have savings weren't very likely to have more than a week's worth of food at home. It was too easy to get stuff from the grocery on the weekend. From what I can tell, almost every week they went at the same time I did.

We quite possibly could be, but it's just bull shootin' anyhow. No ruffled feathers intended or received.

Maybe my mental timeline is skewed, but I thought that people went crazy and started hoarding all the TP and food pretty well in advance of any type of shelter in place orders being handed down in the US. What I saw was a dumb angry mob hoarding every resource like it was legitimately the last time they'd ever get any of it. At least around our part of the country, this started over a week ago, but out west it started like 3 weeks ago. I don't give the common person walking around even close to enough credit to plan something like this out. This was straight up panic.

I mean, the food, yeah, OK maybe... But the gun stores? C'mon... These are people freaking out like we're all gonna die.

Unlike us, who are always in a state of freaking out...

 

[MarkC]

I think there's caves in Germany that have some of the earliest pictographs of him.

But no, news of his extinction is greatly exaggerated, as far as I know.

I think I toured one of those caves when I was a kid; I didn't know what I was looking at, but now I do!

 

[T.Lex]

Kids, what uncle Alpo is referring to is a machine that we used to use... or our parents and grandparents... to stitch cloth together. If you'll notice, those leggings you're wearing have seams. A robot does that now, but back in the last century, people still made clothes at home and would use a "sewing machine" to sew the pieces of material together.

Next week, we'll talk about a device that magically takes wrinkles out of clothes. Its called an "iron." Like the metal.

The more you know....

(Ellipsis for the win.)

 

[Alpo]

Thank you Mr. Rogers....or izzit Mr. Nye?