Coronavirus

[ditcherman]

My ass… Anyone who believes this bull****, I’ve got a bridge in Brooklyn that I’ll sell you cheap. This is all predicated on the fact that we’re getting anything close to honest numbers out of China. Who believes that?

[FONT=&amp][FONT=&amp]Italy coronavirus death toll passes China's for first time[/FONT][/FONT]
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[FONT=&amp][FONT=&amp]https://www.foxnews.com/world/italy-coronavirus-death-toll-passes-china-for-first-time[/FONT][/FONT]

I'm having trouble reconciling what you wrote and the headline and link you posted???
I think you're saying lockdown is bs but in my mind the reason we need to lockdown(to whatever degree) is because china was a 'success' and Italy was a failure, because Italy let the people roam free and didn't take it seriously. What am I missing?

 

[JettaKnight]

Ordered shelter in place or not, plenty of people will ignore it. There aren’t any good options for dealing with those people, or even disproving whatever story they give for being out of the house. Maybe they can scare a few more into staying inside, but that’s about it.

The drug dealers across the street certainly haven't slowed down.

I did see the younger ones sporting cheap face masks yesterday.

 

[femurphy77]

Back in the day....(CM era flashback..... pre Graduating HS in 1980, I worked at the local IGA and got discounts. We routinely bought cases of Charmin for TPing homes of idiot friends who deserved it. I had a cannon for a arm, and could chuck rolls to unreal heights. Not uncommon for me to launch rolls into 90+ foot trees.

The winter wonderland look was real and hilarious looking. We nailed a home of a girl who stepped out on on our buddy, then she broke up with him on the day before his birthday. That was a 3 case 20+ guy TP attack. I had a guy feeding me rolls and was launching them as fast as I could. Still amazed to this day that we never woke anyone up because of all the laughter.

Our house got tp'ed one night. The daughters were both laughing about it as I was surveying the "damage". I casually mentioned that I had seen them coming that night and had recorded it on our video camera and was handing it over to the cops that coincidentally had just pulled up (a car guy buddy of mine). Miraculously every shred of TP disappeared the next night! It was several months before the girls realized we didn't have a video camera.

 

[smokingman]

Indiana is falling behind others in the number of people being tested. At 380 total tested. 56 positives so far.
https://www.in.gov/coronavirus/index.htm

Compare that with where I am now Minnesota. 3039 tested so far. 89 positives so far.
https://www.health.state.mn.us/diseases/coronavirus/situation.html

If you look at total population it looks even worse.
Indiana 6.692 million(2018)
Minnesota 5.611 million(2018)

Italy has passed China's make believe numbers of deaths from Covid-19.Italy has 62.1 million people roughly,China has roughly 1.386 Billion.
Italy is also reporting less than half the number of cases as China. So if the WHO reported death % in China at 3.4% is it possible it was actually double that
near Italy's 7.9% death rate? I am trying to say numbers from China are and have been meaningless for a long time.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/italys-virus-death-toll-on-the-cusp-of-overtaking-chinas-11584626731
https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news...0-intl-hnk/h_338a9e3e86c965845d14e33d17c45d68

January 19: 100 cases
- January 24: 1,000 cases
- January 28: 5,000 cases
- February 12: 50,000 cases
- March 6: 100,000 cases
- March 14: 150,000 cases
- March 18: 200,000 cases
- March 19: 225,000 cases
https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/tracking-coronavirus-live-news-updates/

 

[Denny347]

I thought the mortality rate was based on deaths divided by total known cases.

Yes, 80% are mild, negligible symptoms to flu-like symptoms, 20% of the cases require medical intervention, including hospitalization.

6% are critically ill and require ICU. There are 60,000 ICU beds in the nation. Once those are all full, the mortality rate starts heading towards 6%.

ETA: Hopefully, once widespread testing is available, it'll prove these percentages wrong. But Diamond Princess, Wuhan and increasingly, Italy, indicate they're not.

Considering that they are telling people with minor symptoms that they will not get tested, those minor cases will not be counted against the fatality rate, the % will be off. "I have a runny nose and cough." Do I have a cold or Covid19? We'll never know.

 

[T.Lex]

They should start calling this the Sandman Virus. (Logan's Run reference.)

 

[Trigger Time]

Some people get freaked out when they hear about all the contingency plans the government has.

Having been part of various kinds of contingency planning, the whole point is to try and prepare for EVERY scenario, even ones that don't really seem plausible.

I expect .gov to have plans for a nationwide lockdown. I hope they never have to use them, but failing to plan is planning to fail.

Yep

 

[Denny347]

STOP SPREADING RUMORS!!! Aldi cashier told my Mother-in-law today that the Indiana Nat Guard was called up to "take over Indianapolis" and to shelter in place. She was scared...sigh. My wife texted me about it. I was at work and turned to my co-worker who is rank in the Ind Nat Guard and he rolled his eyes. This crap only serves to fan the flames of panic and make life for the rest of us that much more difficult.

 

[maxwelhse]

Gaurandangtee you that calculator says "made in you know where" on the back!

Nope... Gen-u-wine made in USA Microsoft!

100% of the error is the defective operator of the equipment.

 

[ghitch75]

They should start calling this the Sandman Virus. (Logan's Run reference.)

Wuhan

 

[utahskies]

[h=5]Per Executive order by gov of Indiana[/h]K-12 schools are closed through May 1, 2020 https://www.in.gov/gov/2384.htm

 

[ditcherman]

Ordered shelter in place or not, plenty of people will ignore it. There aren’t any good options for dealing with those people, or even disproving whatever story they give for being out of the house. Maybe they can scare a few more into staying inside, but that’s about it.

If I'm a half mile away from any other human, can I be outside? Can I walk to my shop? Can I drive to my field and work by myself? I'm not staying inside, not a fan of inside air. Not wishing to disobey the spirit of the order, but maybe the practicality of it. How should I deal with myself?

 

[Sylvain]

Some places are low on masks. They are reducing requirements to just a surgical mask. Makes me nervous when recommendations change due to lack of supply.

Same thing here.
They are now saying that surgical masks work just as good as N95 (what we call FFP2 here) to protect healthcare workers.
Now some services are low on surgical masks too.

 

[Sylvain]

If I'm a half mile away from any other human, can I be outside? Can I walk to my shop? Can I drive to my field and work by myself? I'm not staying inside, not a fan of inside air. Not wishing to disobey the spirit of the order, but maybe the practicality of it. How should I deal with myself?

The virus is not in the air, it's only caught by human contacts mostly.

It's less risky to be outside (in the middle of nowhere with some clean fresh air) than to be locked inside.

You need to avoid contact with other humans, it's not like with a radioactive outbreak where you would be safer inside.

 

[smokingman]

If 1% of our population gets this, and the mortality rate really is as high as 5%, that's 182,500 dead and virtually all deaths have been people that were on the way to the exit already... If things keep up the way we're going, we're going to have at least half that number dead or headed to prison from straight up poverty and millions more might wish they were, with most of those in my scenario being otherwise capable working people that used to be looking forward to a comfortable life. That's ignoring the millions more people in future generations effected by dropping nukes on the fire that was already out of control .gov spending.

So... My opinion is that the response has been far in excess of what is reasonable and is already paving the way to much worse problems for everyone as opposed to under 200,000 people. It seems the cure is worse than the disease, IMO, but time will tell. This could all blow over in 2 weeks and everything is fine again, or it could be a depression that will last a decade.

The problem is most of our minds have a hard time with exponential spread. You can not look at where you are now. To plan,to make any difference you have to look at where you will be 2-3 weeks from now or even further where you will be in a month.

Given New York alone reported over 1200 cases today while admitting they are severely behind in testing with estimates of infected in the high tens of thousands by the mayor of New York. Where will that be in 2-3 weeks with RO anywhere from 2.3(WHO) to 6.7(Los Almos national lab)? In two weeks New York city alone could have near total saturation if nothing is done.
https://www.pscp.tv/w/1gqxvEBNwAWJB
If you want to read it. Here is the covid-19 100 page Federal US report leaked by the New York times.
It has some amazing insight into how not prepared we are. It assumes no wide spread community infections in the USA.
More shocking than that is it was released late February.
https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthe...367f758bec47cad361f/optimized/full.pdf#page=1

 

[ditcherman]

Same thing here.
They are now saying that surgical masks work just as good as N95 (what we call FFP2 here) to protect healthcare workers.
Now some services are low on surgical masks too.

And all the general populace heard as this was heating up was "a mask won't help you against this" baloney.

 

[ditcherman]

The virus is not in the air, it's only caught by human contacts mostly.

It's less risky to be outside (in the middle of nowhere with some clean fresh air) than to be locked inside.

You need to avoid contact with other humans, it's not like with a radioactive outbreak where you would be safer inside.

Yes sir, that's kind of my point. I'm pretty safe where I'm at.

 

[smokingman]

The virus is not in the air, it's only caught by human contacts mostly.

It's less risky to be outside (in the middle of nowhere with some clean fresh air) than to be locked inside.

You need to avoid contact with other humans, it's not like with a radioactive outbreak where you would be safer inside.

It is in the air for at least 3 hours. Even then the viral load in the air is only reduced by 50%
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10....eE5mg1TKXAfWwVH7E8URzofzKBHYoy2k9LF5wM1ldGW90

But yes outside air for the most part should be safe unless you are in a crowd.

 

[Sylvain]

Ordered shelter in place or not, plenty of people will ignore it. There aren’t any good options for dealing with those people, or even disproving whatever story they give for being out of the house. Maybe they can scare a few more into staying inside, but that’s about it.

We have a national lockdown in France.
Cops stopping car and giving $500 fines if they have no good reason to be out of their house.

 

[hammerd13]

So, I've heard from 2 sources, a National Guard member and a Homeland Security employee, that a Federal level Shelter in Place order will be issued. It's gonna be for 2 weeks initially. One guy said announcement will be between Friday and Sunday, and the other guy said Sunday.

My crystal ball predicts another panic at the grocery stores....

I've heard the same thing (although Monday being the implementation day) from military friends.