2016 Electoral College polling thread

[ArcadiaGP]

Good thing Reince suppressed any opposition at convention, or else we would have missed out on this

New poll: Trump lead shrinks in Texas, within margin of error | WFAA.com

Only so many ways you can say "It's over." I've run out.

 

[Ericpwp]

Yeah because the will of the people and stuff.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Yeah because the will of the people and stuff.

I know, right? The will of all those people that they shut up, all those delegates that were trying to get a legal motion on the floor that went ignored.

Glad we're on the same page.

Obviously doesn't matter now, 20-something days away from the landslide loss.

 

[Ericpwp]

Yeah, wrong book.

There would be no outrage if they ignored the landslide victory in the primary.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Clinton now leads Trump by 6.7 in RCP avg. Taking out the LA Times experimental tracker, it's a 7.7 point lead.

 

[foszoe]

Good thing Reince suppressed any opposition at convention, or else we would have missed out on this

New poll: Trump lead shrinks in Texas, within margin of error | WFAA.com

Only so many ways you can say "It's over." I've run out.

I highly doubt it Time will tell though

 

[T.Lex]

Yeah because the will of the people and stuff.

The will of the people will be reflected when Madam President is sworn in - at least the way it looks now.

Winning a primary is only reflective of the will of a subset of people. That's why winning a general election is different.

 

[T.Lex]

Some over night updates.

OH looks to be in play again, so Trump's gotta be happy with that. Polling mixed, but within the MOE on who's winning.

Trump might be competitive in NH. That's interesting because if he can cut into liberal elite New England, there's more of the voters he needs: affluent white folk. Overall, it isn't all doom-and-gloom for DJT in the EC polling.

Speaking of which, here's a good analysis by Nate Silver.

Trump Isn?t Teflon | FiveThirtyEight

(I think I said this earlier, but it is worth repeating - I view his site as a curiosity. Kinda like what he does with advanced metrics for sports, the numbers can identify factors or trends in a given time-slice, but I wouldn't use them on their own for predictiveness. Of course, anytime I read a random walk reference, I smile.)

 

[Spear Dane]

If Trump would just go on vacay somewhere and keep his damn mouth shut he would win the election, hands down.

 

[mcjon77]

Good thing Reince suppressed any opposition at convention, or else we would have missed out on this

New poll: Trump lead shrinks in Texas, within margin of error | WFAA.com

Only so many ways you can say "It's over." I've run out.

I now understand Trump's strategy and it is GENIUS!!

He knows Hillary has more money, so by underperforming so spectacularly in previously solid red states he is going to tempt her to expend more resources on those states. Think about it. She is winning or within striking distance in these states:
Georgia
Arizona
Utah
Texas

No Democratic presidential candidate has had a shot at those states in DECADES. If he can just keep pushing his own poll numbers down so that eventually Clinton has a shot to take EVERY state, eventually she will be overwhelmed by all of her possible paths to victory and exhaust herself.

Brilliant, just brilliant.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

WBUR/MassINC New Hampshire poll (change from last):
Clinton 41 (-1)
Trump 38 (+3)
Johnson 11 (-2)

Hillary's lead in the RCP avg down to 3.6

 

[T.Lex]

Florida Atlantic Univ. has HRC +6 (just outside the MOE) in FL a switch from DJT +2 in August from same pollster.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

no words

Arizona (Data Orbital; 10/11-12)

Clinton 43%
Trump 42%
Johnson 5%

New Poll: Trump & Clinton Tied in Arizona

 

[T.Lex]

Mother (of a) trucker.

Monmouth poll has HRC within the MOE in Indiana. Indi-f'n-ana.
https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_IN_101416/

Trump currently leads Hillary Clinton by a slim 4 points, down from his 11 point lead in August, while Mike Pence's approval rating as governor has dropped among Hoosier State voters.

 

[T.Lex]

RCP has a new NV poll with Clinton +2 (within the MOE, obviously).

 

[ArcadiaGP]

YouGov has Georgia turning blue for the first time since 1980

 

[BugI02]

RCP average improving (for Trump) from Clinton +6.7 to +5.5

Not sure of proper etiquette. Should I have waited for GP to post this info?

 

[T.Lex]

RCP average improving (for Trump) from Clinton +6.7 to +5.5

Not sure of proper etiquette. Should I have waited for GP to post this info?

Are you talking nationally? If so, I would gently direct you to the other thread about the overall election.

RCP also continues to show HRC up in FL, NV, CO, and VA.

DJT up by a more substantial margin in UT than a few days ago, so that's good news for him.

Here is an interesting state to watch for DJT, though: Alaska. Latest poll there shows a single point lead. (Clearly within the MOE.). I hadn't been watching that race because it seemed like a lock for him, but it has actually been closing for the last month. Alaska hasn't gone Dem since 1964 in a presidential race.

There probably isn't a more 2A friendly (per capita) state in the Union.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

YouGov Georgia poll:
Clinton 47
Trump 44


And Alaska within MOE

*Rains of Castamere plays*

 

[T.Lex]

Something wacky (or, wackier than usual, depending on how you count) is going on in UT. New poll shows Trump up by just 1 (within the MOE obviously).

I guess the takeaway is that it could be closer than expected there.