2016 Electoral College polling thread

[ArcadiaGP]

Likely Voters: HRC 50 / DJT 38
Registered Voters: HRC 47 / DJT 38

62% say allegations against Trump likely true

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_US_101716/

 

[T.Lex]

Likely Voters: HRC 50 / DJT 38
Registered Voters: HRC 47 / DJT 38

62% say allegations against Trump likely true

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_US_101716/

Same as to Bug - if it is national, please take it to the other thread.

Like the tag line at 270towin says, it ain't a popularity contest.

 

[T.Lex]

In other news, OH poll now has Trump +4. If he can maintain that, then it won't be a landslide for HRC.

If he can build on it and get FL, then he's got a puncher's chance.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

2016 Louisiana

Trump 45%
Clinton 38%

(JMC Analytics and Polling 10/11-10/15)

JMC Analytics and Polling (10/11-10/15 2016)

 

[ArcadiaGP]

New Q poll
likely voters CO

Clinton 45
Trump 37
Johnson 10
Stein 3


https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/...ing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2388

 

[T.Lex]

NC still tied up.

Which does not bode well.

And a new OH poll showing a tie.

 

[BugI02]

T. Lex and the other regulars herein, I think this relates to EC. I heard McMullen interviewed on NPR today, and he was touting the throwing the election to the house scenario. He liked his chances to outright win Utah and said he was doing well in Idaho. He did not think it was likely that the results would be close enough to send the election to the house, but it sounded like he wanted to be in a position to make the play if it went down that way.

FiveThirtyEight seems to give the scenario a little bit of credibility How Evan McMullin Could Win Utah And The Presidency | FiveThirtyEight

A couple of questions. How do you view a dark horse's chances to win Utah outright (especially in light of the rumor that Romney might endorse his candidacy). He stated that in the event the election went to the house, that the house was required (constrained?) to choose from among the top three vote-getters in the EC. This is the first I have heard of this constraint, can anyone cofirm or deny? He was pretty confident that if he won Utah that he would have the third highest EC vote tally, as he did not think Johnson or Stein would win any states and would have no EC votes. Any opinions on whether he is likely to be correct?

 

[T.Lex]

A couple of questions. How do you view a dark horse's chances to win Utah outright (especially in light of the rumor that Romney might endorse his candidacy). He stated that in the event the election went to the house, that the house was required (constrained?) to choose from among the top three vote-getters in the EC. This is the first I have heard of this constraint, can anyone cofirm or deny? He was pretty confident that if he won Utah that he would have the third highest EC vote tally, as he did not think Johnson or Stein would win any states and would have no EC votes. Any opinions on whether he is likely to be correct?

Fair questions; responses not in any particular order.

First, I know of no such constraint, but that may be the tradition. I vaguely recall there may have been 1 time where it didn't play out that way. Either way, I don't believe either the House or Senate are bound by anything along those lines. Now, there may be moral constraints, but these are politicians, so that is a dubious assumption.

Second, based on my amateur EC mapping, it won't matter. Trump will need to carry OH, FL, NC, and all the other traditionally red states to keep it close. I think it is still more likely that HRC has a big enough margin that it won't matter.

Finally, I don't know how to predict how well a non-HRC/non-DJT candidate will do there. I don't really know anyone out there that I'd trust to give me a fair answer. Plus, there's no way at all to predict how many people out there will stay home out of disgust/disdain, even with a Romney endorsement.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Fox News moves Texas from 'Solid R' to 'Lean R'

 

[T.Lex]

Wow.

Tossups include NC, AZ, and UT. That's kinda crazy.

And GA as a "Lean GOP."

But IA as "Lean GOP" is a bit different. Give him credit for that. And credit for some places, like MN, that are "Lean Dem" instead of solid. So, there could be moral victories buried in there.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Texas:

WaPo/Survey Monkey (10/8-10/16):
Trump: 48%
Clinton: 46%

University of Houston (10/7-10/15):
Trump: 41%
Clinton 38%

RCP= T+5.7%

 

[printcraft]

 

[T.Lex]

Overnight poll from NC has HRC +2 (within the MOE of course). Trump is campaigning there Friday. Pence is out west.

Looks like its been about a month since a poll had DJT ahead in NC. Now, most of them are within the MOE, but that's not the kind of momentum you want. If HRC takes NC, she could clear 300 EC delegates.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Arizona presidential poll: Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by 5 points - CNNPolitics.com

He wasn't lying when he said he'd flip some states.

I can already see the blame being placed on "rigging", that's the new hotness.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Suffolk University
Ohio likely voters
Oct. 15-17
MOE +/- 4.4

Clinton 45
Trump 45
Johnson 2
Stein 1

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Larry Sabato now showing Utah is a toss-up. Clinton leads 352-173.

Bret Baier says this seems to follow the trend they see at Fox News as well.

Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » With 19 days to go, Clinton?s lead is bigger than ever

 

[T.Lex]

Ok. Honestly, that's a worst-case scenario for Trump.

I'd be surprised if it was that big of a blowout; but not surprised if she cleared 300.

 

[T.Lex]

Edit: never mind; nothing new yet.

 

[T.Lex]

Ok, now some new stuff.

First, important to me personally, Trump +6 in Indiana now. That's outside the MOE, I believe.
Hoosier Survey: Trump leads in Indiana, Pence helps | WISH-TV

Then:
ME - Clinton only up 6, which seems pretty close to me, and only up 1 in the 2d Congressional District there.
GA - Trump only up 2, which is probably too close for comfort.

ETA:
My own worst-day-for-HRC still has her at 279.

 

[T.Lex]

New FL poll has HRC +4, which is right at the MOE.