2016 Electoral College polling thread

[Tombs]

I absolutely don't. Heck, he didn't carry the Republican Party when he was actually popular.

The social issues become less relevant on a daily basis. Conservativism - the Mitch Daniels variety - can either abandon them or be abandoned by the process.

At this point, the financial issues facing our country - and in particular balancing fiscal reality against generations of promises for social safety nets - must be addressed. It'll probably take something significant to jolt GenX into becoming elder statesmen for GenY/Millenials.

It ain't McCain/McConnell.

This is precisely why Trump has me optimistic of the situation. He has the capacity to bring in a boat load of new republicans from a new generation that otherwise couldn't care less. And in the process of getting them to pay attention, hopefully more than a few will continue to care about the process.

 

[T.Lex]

This is precisely why Trump has me optimistic of the situation. He has the capacity to bring in a boat load of new republicans from a new generation that otherwise couldn't care less. And in the process of getting them to pay attention, hopefully more than a few will continue to care about the process.

How are you defining "republicans"? Socially left, fiscally reckless, and politically ignorant?

Or do you mean that they will be attracted to try to repair what is left?

The young people I know - friends of my kids - are more turned off by Trump than attracted. Look at his demographics!

Don't get me wrong - I hope young people are attracted to conservativism. In fact, the ones I do know that are conservative are more attracted to a more libertarian version than I was at the same age. They don't want HRC, but they don't want Trump, either.

The 3rd parties could easily be what draws them.

And yes, those are anecdotal.

 

[Tombs]

How are you defining "republicans"? Socially left, fiscally reckless, and politically ignorant?

Or do you mean that they will be attracted to try to repair what is left?

The young people I know - friends of my kids - are more turned off by Trump than attracted. Look at his demographics!

Don't get me wrong - I hope young people are attracted to conservativism. In fact, the ones I do know that are conservative are more attracted to a more libertarian version than I was at the same age. They don't want HRC, but they don't want Trump, either.

The 3rd parties could easily be what draws them.

And yes, those are anecdotal.

Someone has to be responsible for the record number of primary votes for a republican candidate.

From what I'm seeing in all my groups is that Trump has far more appeal with people under 30 than hillary does. Then it seems more or less like that strong support tapers off until you get into retirement ages.

But yeah it is anecdotal.

 

[jamil]

Someone has to be responsible for the record number of primary votes for a republican candidate.

From what I'm seeing in all my groups is that Trump has far more appeal with people under 30 than hillary does. Then it seems more or less like that strong support tapers off until you get into retirement ages.

But yeah it is anecdotal.

Well, yeah, the people who aren't republican.

The younger people I am around either like Hillary or have become disinterested since Bernie is no longer in it. I would have thought Gary Johnson would appeal to them more.

 

[T.Lex]

Someone has to be responsible for the record number of primary votes for a republican candidate.

I have my suspicions. But I'm a cynical old bastard.

From what I'm seeing in all my groups is that Trump has far more appeal with people under 30 than hillary does.

So what were these people for their 2 or 3 presidential cycles after they turned 18?

But yeah it is anecdotal.

Yeah, Trump's demographics skew older and a certain lack of pigment.

 

[foszoe]

Get this discussion back over to the election thread! I come here for polling.....

 

[jamil]

Get this discussion back over to the election thread! I come here for polling.....

YEAH! Damn straight. According to this poll, 3% are communists.

 

[T.Lex]

Get this discussion back over to the election thread! I come here for polling.....

Right.

RCP has HRC up just at the MOE in PA. That's a bit of an outlier at this point.

Apropos of nothing, the LA Times tracking poll has Trump's lead narrowing to +2, while the "who do you think will win" margin grows to HRC +13.

 

[Ericpwp]

Got to love an underdog!

 

[T.Lex]

Got to love an underdog!

Is he running? I'd vote for him.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Get this discussion back over to the election thread! I come here for polling.....

i gotchu fam

New NBC/WSJ polling:

September: Clinton +6
After Trump video: Clinton +11
After debate: Clinton +7
Combined Sat-Sun-Mon: Clinton +9

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Wow, McMullin only 4 points back. How does this fit into your predictions, Lex? A statistical tie in Utah (the 2nd most Conservative state)

Y2 Analytics Utah poll:
Clinton 26
Trump 26
McMullin 22
Johnson 14

16% said they''d skip election if Trump/Clinton were only two choices.


Also, LA Times poll has Trump trailing

You'll remember this poll for being lauded as great and awesome. I'm sure now it'll be called a piece of leftist trash

 

[T.Lex]

Utah was going to be a train wreck for a Clinton-Trump race. Well, the worst part of the wreck. Both of them basically represent qualities that are despised there.

Figured it would go Trump, just because he's the Republican. If it doesn't, it doesn't hurt HRC because she had no chance there to begin with. If it goes 3rd party, doesn't really matter, other than in the moral-victory-for-3rd-parties sense.

The LA Times thing is... yeah... a curiosity.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Utah was going to be a train wreck for a Clinton-Trump race. Well, the worst part of the wreck. Both of them basically represent qualities that are despised there.

Figured it would go Trump, just because he's the Republican. If it doesn't, it doesn't hurt HRC because she had no chance there to begin with. If it goes 3rd party, doesn't really matter, other than in the moral-victory-for-3rd-parties sense.

The LA Times thing is... yeah... a curiosity.

Very important, though... is there still a 269/269 (or both sub-270) available if Utah goes to McMullin?

Also:

Baldwin Wallace University(?) Ohio poll (post-debate):
Hillary 48
Trump 38

Portman up by 12 in the Senate race... 48-36.

Rasmussen daily tracker (change from yesterday):
Clinton 43 (-1)
Trump 39 (same)
Johnson 7 (same)

Now all post-tape, 2/3 days post debate.

Also:

Rubio +7 in FL Sen poll (which has Hillary leading in the state)

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box...rubio-appears-to-be-on-his-way-to-re-election

 

[T.Lex]

Very important, though... is there still a 269/269 (or both sub-270) available if Utah goes to McMullin?

Alas, I don't think so.

But, keep in mind, if even a single state goes non-D/R, then the calculus changes: it doesn't need to be a tie.

So let's say HRC keeps: NV, PA, IA. Trump gets: OH, VA, NC, FL, MO, and AZ. Then she only gets to 267 and he only gets to 265. Boom. Congress decides.

Oh, and that'll be the new Congress, I believe.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Alas, I don't think so.

But, keep in mind, if even a single state goes non-D/R, then the calculus changes: it doesn't need to be a tie.

So let's say HRC keeps: NV, PA, IA. Trump gets: OH, VA, NC, FL, MO, and AZ. Then she only gets to 267 and he only gets to 265. Boom. Congress decides.

Oh, and that'll be the new Congress, I believe.

Oh.... so.... as Trump supporters sabotage the down-ballot GOP... and get a Democrat majority Congress... it's likely the new Congress will vote in a Democrat.

Makes sense.

 

[T.Lex]

Oh.... so.... as Trump supporters sabotage the down-ballot GOP... and get a Democrat majority Congress... it's likely the new Congress will vote in a Democrat.

Makes sense.

Well, the math still looks like HRC gets 300+ in the EC. So, this is still a remote possibility.

If she doesn't clear 270, though, yes - Trump would have to rely on all those members of Congress that have refused to endorse him, withdrawn their endorsements of him, or been insulted by him.

Which is a reflection of how it would work if he was elected. As noted elsewhere, we aren't electing a monarch. POTUS has to work with Congress to do things. You know... politics.

 

[printcraft]

https://www.indianagunowners.com/fo...ssion/423484-getting-curiouser-curiouser.html

 

[T.Lex]

Response in that thread.

The linked site is not damning. It may come as a surprise to some people that polling companies conduct polls for different clients in the same cycle, but that doesn't make it news. Or damning.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

New Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin likely voters:
Clinton 44%
Trump 37%
Johnson 9%
Stein 3%


Opinion Savvy Florida poll:
Clinton 47
Trump 44
Johnson 5

Poll taken entirely post-debate.