trump

[ArcadiaGP]

Copy of Sean Hannity's bracket just got leaked

 

[Tombs]

Trump Rally, UT, Live:

[video=youtube;FpeWWFfd4Ns]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FpeWWFfd4Ns[/video]

 

[BugI02]

The $8.3 billion does assume reinvestment of dividends and distributions ( too many variables to consider taxes that have changed over the last 35 years). However, the value alone of the $200MM index fund in 1982 would be alomost $3 billion. (S&P @140 in 1982 and 2000 today).
I've said it before, but given that much money and becoming a billionaire is not impressive, but inevitable.

Thats an average annual rate of return of 15.9% ((2000/140)^-18) = 1.159 $200mm x 1.159 = $231.8mm

$231.8mm x 0.15 (investment income tax rate) = $34.77mm

$231.8mm - $34.77mm = $197.03 for a negative rate of return of (200 - 197.03)/200 = 0.01485 or -1.485%. I'm sure if you employed sufficiently expensive accountants to create tax dodges based in notorious tax havens such as, say, the Caymans you could improve this rate of return but if you actually pay taxes you're not becoming a billionaire that way

 

[BugI02]

Copy of Sean Hannity's bracket just got leaked

The smart money is on Trump for the win!

 

[olhorseman]

Thats an average annual rate of return of 15.9% ((2000/140)^-18) = 1.159 $200mm x 1.159 = $231.8mm

$231.8mm x 0.15 (investment income tax rate) = $34.77mm

$231.8mm - $34.77mm = $197.03 for a negative rate of return of (200 - 197.03)/200 = 0.01485 or -1.485%. I'm sure if you employed sufficiently expensive accountants to create tax dodges based in notorious tax havens such as, say, the Caymans you could improve this rate of return but if you actually pay taxes you're not becoming a billionaire that way

I am not an accountant but as a taxpayer if this was my situation I would not pay taxes on the original investment of $200MM. Taxes would only apply to the returns of $31.8MM. And the ARR for the S&P 500 over the last 33 years (2015-1982 when Trump took over) has been closer to 11.5% not 15%.
Regardless, my point is having the advantages Trump has had doesn't mean that his current net worth is a true indicator of his business acumen.

 

[BugI02]

You're right, I mistakenly included the principal in my calculations. It may or may not have been a factor only the first year depending on how they transferred the money. That fact that the growth rate of the money was so low should have clued me in but I was tired. The ARR was calculated off the figures you initially gave in the post I quoted (140 initial 2000 endpoint, 1982 to 2000). Using your numbers:

$200mm x 1.115 = $223mm $23mm x 0.15 = $3.45mm(15% tax rate) (223 - 3.45)/200 = 1.132 or 13.2% after tax return

(1.132 ^ 33) = 59.83 x $200mm = $1.196bb so you do (just barely) make it to a billion in the much longer (33yrs as opposed to 18yrs) period now used.

Since Forbes says Trump is now worth $4.5bb, he has far exceeded the growth rate of the S&P after tax returns which was the point I wished to make relative to your implication that he hadn't done all that well with the family fortune. Obviously his tax rate was probably lower than 15% but that info isn't easily obtained from public documents

 

[olhorseman]

You're right, I mistakenly included the principal in my calculations. It may or may not have been a factor only the first year depending on how they transferred the money. That fact that the growth rate of the money was so low should have clued me in but I was tired. The ARR was calculated off the figures you initially gave in the post I quoted (140 initial 2000 endpoint, 1982 to 2000). Using your numbers:

$200mm x 1.115 = $223mm $23mm x 0.15 = $3.45mm(15% tax rate) (223 - 3.45)/200 = 1.132 or 13.2% after tax return

(1.132 ^ 33) = 59.83 x $200mm = $1.196bb so you do (just barely) make it to a billion in the much longer (33yrs as opposed to 18yrs) period now used.

Since Forbes says Trump is now worth $4.5bb, he has far exceeded the growth rate of the S&P after tax returns which was the point I wished to make relative to your implication that he hadn't done all that well with the family fortune. Obviously his tax rate was probably lower than 15% but that info isn't easily obtained from public documents

From excel assuming reinvestment of returns after taxes

		End of Year	Start of year balance	End of year balance (pre tax )	Tax	End of year balance (post tax)
Inititial Investment	$ 200,000,000.00	1982		$ 200,000,000.00	$ 223,000,000.00	$ 3,450,000.00	$ 219,550,000.00
ARR	11.5%	1983		$ 219,550,000.00	$ 244,798,250.00	$ 3,787,237.50	$ 241,011,012.50
Tax Rate	15%	1984		$ 241,011,012.50	$ 268,727,278.94	$ 4,157,439.97	$ 264,569,838.97
		1985		$ 264,569,838.97	$ 294,995,370.45	$ 4,563,829.72	$ 290,431,540.73
		1986		$ 290,431,540.73	$ 323,831,167.92	$ 5,009,944.08	$ 318,821,223.84
		1987		$ 318,821,223.84	$ 355,485,664.58	$ 5,499,666.11	$ 349,985,998.47
		1988		$ 349,985,998.47	$ 390,234,388.29	$ 6,037,258.47	$ 384,197,129.82
		1989		$ 384,197,129.82	$ 428,379,799.75	$ 6,627,400.49	$ 421,752,399.26
		1990		$ 421,752,399.26	$ 470,253,925.17	$ 7,275,228.89	$ 462,978,696.29
		1991		$ 462,978,696.29	$ 516,221,246.36	$ 7,986,382.51	$ 508,234,863.85
		1992		$ 508,234,863.85	$ 566,681,873.19	$ 8,767,051.40	$ 557,914,821.79
		1993		$ 557,914,821.79	$ 622,075,026.29	$ 9,624,030.68	$ 612,450,995.62
		1994		$ 612,450,995.62	$ 682,882,860.11	$ 10,564,779.67	$ 672,318,080.44
		1995		$ 672,318,080.44	$ 749,634,659.69	$ 11,597,486.89	$ 738,037,172.80
		1996		$ 738,037,172.80	$ 822,911,447.68	$ 12,731,141.23	$ 810,180,306.44
		1997		$ 810,180,306.44	$ 903,351,041.69	$ 13,975,610.29	$ 889,375,431.40
		1998		$ 889,375,431.40	$ 991,653,606.01	$ 15,341,726.19	$ 976,311,879.82
		1999		$ 976,311,879.82	$ 1,088,587,746.00	$ 16,841,379.93	$ 1,071,746,366.07
		2000		$ 1,071,746,366.07	$ 1,194,997,198.17	$ 18,487,624.81	$ 1,176,509,573.35
		2001		$ 1,176,509,573.35	$ 1,311,808,174.29	$ 20,294,790.14	$ 1,291,513,384.15
		2002		$ 1,291,513,384.15	$ 1,440,037,423.33	$ 22,278,605.88	$ 1,417,758,817.45
		2003		$ 1,417,758,817.45	$ 1,580,801,081.46	$ 24,456,339.60	$ 1,556,344,741.86
		2004		$ 1,556,344,741.86	$ 1,735,324,387.17	$ 26,846,946.80	$ 1,708,477,440.37
		2005		$ 1,708,477,440.37	$ 1,904,952,346.02	$ 29,471,235.85	$ 1,875,481,110.17
		2006		$ 1,875,481,110.17	$ 2,091,161,437.84	$ 32,352,049.15	$ 2,058,809,388.69
		2007		$ 2,058,809,388.69	$ 2,295,572,468.39	$ 35,514,461.95	$ 2,260,058,006.43
		2008		$ 2,260,058,006.43	$ 2,519,964,677.17	$ 38,986,000.61	$ 2,480,978,676.56
		2009		$ 2,480,978,676.56	$ 2,766,291,224.37	$ 42,796,882.17	$ 2,723,494,342.20
		2010		$ 2,723,494,342.20	$ 3,036,696,191.55	$ 46,980,277.40	$ 2,989,715,914.14
		2011		$ 2,989,715,914.14	$ 3,333,533,244.27	$ 51,572,599.52	$ 3,281,960,644.75
		2012		$ 3,281,960,644.75	$ 3,659,386,118.90	$ 56,613,821.12	$ 3,602,772,297.78
		2013		$ 3,602,772,297.78	$ 4,017,091,112.02	$ 62,147,822.14	$ 3,954,943,289.88
		2014		$ 3,954,943,289.88	$ 4,409,761,768.22	$ 68,222,771.75	$ 4,341,538,996.47
		2015		$ 4,341,538,996.47	$ 4,840,815,981.06	$ 74,891,547.69	$ 4,765,924,433.38

 

[BugI02]

I was using polynomial expansion because I'm lazy but cannot see any fault in your calculations, which implies a systematic error on my part. I'll look for it later. But we've shifted a long way from the $8.3bb and $3.0bb asserted in #702, so there is probably enough wrong to go around. And please note that at the Forbes estimate of Trump's worth of $4.5bb its about a wash with just investing in an S&P ETF

 

[ArcadiaGP]

"Here's Donald Trump's campaign manager in the Tucson crowd grabbing the collar of a protester."

So unlike him.

https://twitter.com/JaxAlemany/status/711329895339536384

 

[chipbennett]

"Here's Donald Trump's campaign manager in the Tucson crowd grabbing the collar of a protester."

So unlike him.

https://twitter.com/JaxAlemany/status/711329895339536384

You do realize that, no matter how tightly you clutch them, pearls won't turn into diamonds, right?

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Meh, it's apparently newsworthy, having your staffers jerk people around

Man who pulled protester revealed as Trump security - POLITICO

 

[Tombs]

[video=youtube;N3aLLegn75g]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N3aLLegn75g[/video]

Keep saying that Trump wants violence, eventually if you lie hard enough and long enough someone might actually believe you.

Lets see what a police officer thinks after attending a Trump rally:

[video=youtube;2q6jHad-XG0]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2q6jHad-XG0[/video]

 

[pudly]

Wow. That is an amazing video by that policeman. Thanks for sharing.

The more I read/hear first-hand accounts of what is going on around Trump, but more I'm seeing how he is being slandered in the media. The real violent threats/rhetoric is coming from the oppose-Trump camp at about 100-1. Somehow it is being portrayed as the opposite.

 

[BugI02]

The attempt to stop his candidacy is a full court press

 

[Tombs]

Wow. That is an amazing video by that policeman. Thanks for sharing.

The more I read/hear first-hand accounts of what is going on around Trump, but more I'm seeing how he is being slandered in the media. The real violent threats/rhetoric is coming from the oppose-Trump camp at about 100-1. Somehow it is being portrayed as the opposite.

Take a guess about why he wants to open the laws to be able to hold them accountable.

I've never seen the media slander someone as hard as they have with him, especially with out right lies, not even cleverly manipulated half truths.

 

[GodFearinGunTotin]

Take a guess about why he wants to open the laws to be able to hold them accountable.

I've never seen the media slander someone as hard as they have with him, especially with out right lies, not even cleverly manipulated half truths.

Maybe he ought to sow that which he wishes to reap by not referring to Ted Cruz as "Lying Ted" every chance he gets.

 

[BugI02]

If Cruz can prove it isn't true that he is a liar perhaps he should sue The Donald for slander. THAT would be entertaining

 

[Tombs]

Maybe he ought to sow that which he wishes to reap by not referring to Ted Cruz as "Lying Ted" every chance he gets.

Cruz is a lawyer, if he had a problem with it he could easily do something about it.

I think he still believes he has a chance of getting a cabinet position, so he's not going to go too far.

 

[GodFearinGunTotin]

If Cruz can prove it isn't true that he is a liar perhaps he should sue The Donald for slander. THAT would be entertaining

Cruz is a lawyer, if he had a problem with it he could easily do something about it.

I think he still believes he has a chance of getting a cabinet position, so he's not going to go too far.

Nah...Trump is the one that wants to "open up the libel laws" so he can go after people that say mean things about him.

 

[Dirtebiker]

Cruz is a lawyer, if he had a problem with it he could easily do something about it.

I think he still believes he has a chance of getting a cabinet position, so he's not going to go too far.

I doubt Hillary would offer any cabinet position to Cruz.