The Republican Primary Race Is Filling Up

[T.Lex]

Latest RCP has Trump beating Kasich. In Ohio. By about 2x the MOE. That's gotta sting. Cruz is 3rd at about 3x MOE.

Looks like Clinton is going to have a run of wins. Only mentioning that here because it makes the matchup polling more important.

 

[spec4]

The GOP nominee I want is the one who can win. At this point I don't care which candidate that would be. Wife says she won't vote for Trump and she is a conservative. Got to try and bring her around if he gets the nod.

 

[T.Lex]

The GOP nominee I want is the one who can win. At this point I don't care which candidate that would be. Wife says she won't vote for Trump and she is a conservative. Got to try and bring her around if he gets the nod.

Depending on how much weight to be afforded matchup polls, Trump has the least chance of winning against Clinton.

Trump, -2.8%
Cruz, even
Rubio, +4.7
Kasich, +7.4

How about dem apples?

 

[jamil]

The GOP nominee I want is the one who can win. At this point I don't care which candidate that would be. Wife says she won't vote for Trump and she is a conservative. Got to try and bring her around if he gets the nod.

It comes down to this. One of two will be the next president. The Republican or the Democrat. If it's Trump vs Hillary, maybe she wants neither. But which one does she least want. As disastrous as I think a Trump presidency would be a Hillary presidency would be even more disastrous. At this point I'll pull the lever for whichever Republican turd gets the nomination. Anyone but Hillary. Yep. I said it.

 

[jamil]

Depending on how much weight to be afforded matchup polls, Trump has the least chance of winning against Clinton.

Trump, -2.8%
Cruz, even
Rubio, +4.7
Kasich, +7.4

How about dem apples?

It doesn't matter. The rest of the few states that decide nominees will choose. I'm left with the "**** it" vote.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Depending on how much weight to be afforded matchup polls, Trump has the least chance of winning against Clinton.

Trump, -2.8%
Cruz, even
Rubio, +4.7
Kasich, +7.4

How about dem apples?

It doesn't matter. The rest of the few states that decide nominees will choose. I'm left with the "**** it" vote.

Which is why we should stop accepting that this is somehow already decided. Things change. Candidates screw up constantly. I know we joke that Trump can do no wrong in the eyes of his cult following... but he can.

I want people to stop with this defeatist attitude about it all, stop with the "well I'll just vote for whoever the R is"... NO. You can make a difference... you can help OTHER candidates have a chance. Get out there, spread the news, campaign for them... don't just sit on your ass and accept a guy with no chance of beating Clinton. No one wants her in the White House.

Influence others to back a candidate that can beat her. THAT is far more useful to everyone. Cruz, Rubio, Kasich... any of them can actually have the title of "Republican" and it mean something.

I make my donations to various campaigns, I share positive and negative news of all candidates... but I do something.

 

[jamil]

Which is why we should stop accepting that this is somehow already decided. Things change. Candidates screw up constantly. I know we joke that Trump can do no wrong in the eyes of his cult following... but he can.

I want people to stop with this defeatist attitude about it all, stop with the "well I'll just vote for whoever the R is"... NO. You can make a difference... you can help OTHER candidates have a chance. Get out there, spread the news, campaign for them... don't just sit on your ass and accept a guy with no chance of beating Clinton. No one wants her in the White House.

Influence others to back a candidate that can beat her. THAT is far more useful to everyone. Cruz, Rubio, Kasich... any of them can actually have the title of "Republican" and it mean something.

So just how many Trumpsters have you convinced?

Here's the thing. People get to like what they like. They like Trump for who he is, that's their thing. And the delusional people won't change their minds either.

Certainly telling lies about Trump to get his followers to abandon him hasn't helped. And telling the truth about him to appeal to reason doesn't help either. "Reason" is not why Trump supporters support him. I think the only area where Trump is vulnerable is if you can demonstrate *honestly* that Trump is not really a middle finger at the establishment. That's just not easy to do. Because he is mostly that.

 

[T.Lex]

Certainly telling lies about Trump to get his followers to abandon him hasn't helped. And telling the truth about him to appeal to reason doesn't help either. "Reason" is not why Trump supporters support him. I think the only area where Trump is vulnerable is if you can demonstrate *honestly* that Trump is not really a middle finger at the establishment. That's just not easy to do. Because he is mostly that.

IRL, I am finding some success in moving the needle by pointing out that for Trump, it is "Trump uber alles" (of course, with millenials, I have to explain that "uber" is not what they think.) Trump is not in it for America. He is in it for Trump. And his friends.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

So just how many Trumpsters have you convinced?

Here's the thing. People get to like what they like. They like Trump for who he is, that's their thing. And the delusional people won't change their minds either.

Certainly telling lies about Trump to get his followers to abandon him hasn't helped. And telling the truth about him to appeal to reason doesn't help either. "Reason" is not why Trump supporters support him. I think the only area where Trump is vulnerable is if you can demonstrate *honestly* that Trump is not really a middle finger at the establishment. That's just not easy to do. Because he is mostly that.

The type of people that support him aren't willing to be convinced, as we've seen here. I'm probably more interested in the non-Trump supporters, or Democrats/Moderates.

Don't think I've told any lies about the guy, either. I've used his words and his history, that's really all that's needed... fortunately he hasn't sued me yet for doing that.

His actions alone are worth sharing, and no embellishment is required.

 

[Expat]

LOL, someone had too much coffee this morning.

Our primary is in May. We will know who our nominee is by then, more than likely. If not, then it will be exciting to actually vote in an undecided primary.
Bloviating on the interwebz is not going to make any difference on who wins or loses. At this point, Trump will be the nominee unless at least 2 and probably 3 candidates need to drop out. I am not ever sure if Trump getting caught shooting people in Time's Square would deter his supporters.

 

[T.Lex]

Also here's the list that Cruz gave showing Trump's donations.

But yes let's vote for this shining conservative bastion of light, this flawless god of a man that has our values at the tip-top of his mind, this "totally not a lying sack of **** democrat running as a republican because lol".

I would like to revisit this. It was easy to spin this such that it could be dismissed as "old news" or that the information was stale. Indeed, some of it probably is.

Or that 9/11 was a conservative epiphany for Trump, as it was for some others.

But, it turns out Trump's support for Dems is also fairly recent.
Donald Trump Has Donated Heavily To Democrats In The Past | The Daily Caller

Overall in the 2006 election cycle, Trump and his son, Donald Trump Jr., donated $77,200 to Democrats versus only $24,250 on Republicans. Looking back to the 2004 cycle, the pair donated $40,500 to Democrats and only $17,250 to the GOP.
...
Records show that in June 2006, Trump donated $20,000 to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. That was in addition to the $5,000 he sent in April 2005 to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. At the same time, Trump Jr. gave the two Democratic committees a total of $22,500.

While the Trumps spent nearly $50,000 to elect congressional Democrats, they donated only $1,000 to the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRSC).

It also documents significant recent support for the staunch conservative, Harry Reid.

 

[jamil]

The type of people that support him aren't willing to be convinced, as we've seen here. I'm probably more interested in the non-Trump supporters, or Democrats/Moderates.

Don't think I've told any lies about the guy, either. I've used his words and his history, that's really all that's needed... fortunately he hasn't sued me yet for doing that.

His actions alone are worth sharing, and no embellishment is required.

Didn't you post the list of donations to democratic candidates, which conveniently omits the donations to Republicans? On of the fact checking .orgs showed his contributions have been historically balanced, but since running as a Republican have tilted towards them overall. He did support democrats. But reality agrees with his explanation that he gave to both parties because that's what businesses do.

It's more honest to present the truth and say he supports crony capitalism. But that doesn't matter either. The only thing that will stop him is if the candidates who don't stand a chance get out in time before he wins most of the primaries. The "not Trump" support is way bigger than the Trump support. Bit it is diluted by several candidates. Carson and Kasich have no chance of winning any of the winner takes all states. Doing "well" in those states is completely meaningless.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Didn't you post the list of donations to democratic candidates, which conveniently omits the donations to Republicans? On of the fact checking .orgs showed his contributions have been historically balanced, but since running as a Republican have tilted towards them overall. He did support democrats. But reality agrees with his explanation that he gave to both parties because that's what businesses do.

It's more honest to present the truth and say he supports crony capitalism. But that doesn't matter either. The only thing that will stop him is if the candidates who don't stand a chance get out in time before he wins most of the primaries. The "not Trump" support is way bigger than the Trump support. Bit it is diluted by several candidates. Carson and Kasich have no chance of winning any of the winner takes all states. Doing "well" in those states is completely meaningless.

Don't reply too fast, Lex just hit that above yours. Not really that balanced at all.

Regardless, let's say a non-Trump candidate is appealing. Then I see they have donated to people like Pelosi, Reid, and other non-Constitutionalists. I don't care if they are business-minded... I'm not OK with that. It helps the evidence that they will do whatever needs to be done ("common sense gun control") to gain support.

Trump supporters should absolutely know who he supports. It makes absolutely no difference if he donated small amounts to GOP candidates. ANY money to unconstitutional ****bags is too much.

 

[jamil]

Don't reply too fast, Lex just hit that above yours. Not really that balanced at all.

Eh, iType on iPhone with iThumbs. And iNot very fast. iSorry.

 

[jamil]

Trumps support for candidates is not ideological. It's business. Which makes him a crony capitalist. But that's okay. Because middle finger.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Trumps support for candidates is not ideological. It's business. Which makes him a crony capitalist. But that's okay. Because middle finger.

Or maybe it's ideological, because it seems to reflect some of his pre-candidate views. Why can't it be that, instead?

Comes back to trust. Do you trust what Trump is saying now, or do you trust what Trump said before he was a candidate?

 

[T.Lex]

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[ArcadiaGP]

I still can't believe Carson is as high as he is. He was on Fox Business saying why he's still running... I'm guessing being a Presidential candidate does wonders for book sales and website clicks.

So with Kasich and Carson... let's say they drop after Nevada. There's 20%. Where do you guys think that will go? How much will Trump get, Rubio, Cruz... Clinton, Sanders?

GOP National (Rasmussen, post-SC):

Trump 36%
Rubio 21%
Cruz 17%
Kasich 12%
Carson 8%

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Cruz and Rubio aren't hispanic, because race is an ideology or something.

Comedy Central?s Nightly Show: Rubio and Cruz Aren?t Really Hispanic | Mediaite

 

[T.Lex]

So with Kasich and Carson... let's say they drop after Nevada. There's 20%. Where do you guys think that will go? How much will Trump get, Rubio, Cruz... Clinton, Sanders?

At 12%, Kasich might stay in. He's on a bit of an upward trajectory. If people abandon Trump, I could see them land with him. Less risk, less establishment that Cruz or Rubio. Although not necessary, the fact he has an active campaign will make him appealing at a brokered convention.

Born here to American parents (who were first-generation Americans), even though his last name isn't pronounced like it looks.