The Republican Primary Race Is Filling Up

[BugI02]

Simply to avoid starting a general election thread, looking at the polls now suggests this will be a schizophrenic election - and I don't just mean the nominees. Major Electoral College states like NY, CA, FL are either too close to call or Clinton leading. But, more people think the country is on the "wrong track," so that seems like it would benefit Trump. (Unless, those responding to the poll are taking that into account.)

Buckle up, its gonna be a bumpy ride.

T. Lex, the numbers are all over the map (and share the weaknesses of all polling) but I am following with interest attempts to discern what percentages of Bernie voters might vote Trump if (when) Hitlery wins the nomination. They are surprisingly high (but alas self-reported). I have seen numbers from 12% and 20% to as high as 40%.

I think we shall have an unusually competitive election and shall live in interesting times

 

[BugI02]

"Presidential Apprentice" with special hostess, Monica Lewinski.

Not hot enough to be a Trump girl

 

[Jludo]

But wait, I thought a lot of them were actually Democrats strategically voting? And whither #NeverMattered?

Doubt there are many "strategic democrat" voters at this point in the game.

 

[Dead Duck]

"Presidential Apprentice" with special hostess, Monica Lewinski.

Not hot enough to be a Trump girl

True, but still talented. How many girls do you know that can light a cigar without a match.

 

[BugI02]

Doubt there are many "strategic democrat" voters at this point in the game.

Non sequitur. Was not exit polling mentioned? Under those conditions would not the hypothetical strategic Dem voters have also been polled?


ETA: I do agree on one point. I also doubt there were very many strategic Dem voters (ever)

 

[bwframe]

Rubio all-in for Trump, sorry for personal attacks | Fox News

 

[BugI02]

Perhaps this is a requirement to join the Commentariat @FoxNews?

 

[Twangbanger]

No, that's not the Worse thing that can happen...I think it's a legitimate concern to ask if this is how his presidency, specifically when dealing with other leaders, will be like. I'm not sure his rhetoric won't get us into a REAL conflict. He could easily push us to the brink...

Kut (wishes he had a fallout shelter)

I wouldn't be too worried. We have a lot of checks and balances in our system. If he tried to let Iran build a nuclear bomb or something, the Congress would never stand for it.

Wait...(uh...got any more room in that fallout shelter?)

 

[BugI02]

No, that's not the Worse thing that can happen. Trump has consistently been the "Trump" he's always been. He pulls no punches, is creative with facts and the truth, and is always insulting somebody. I think it's a legitimate concern to ask if this is how his presidency, specifically when dealing with other leaders, will be like. I'm not sure his rhetoric won't get us into a REAL conflict. He could easily push us to the brink if he keeps up his machismo.

As opposed to UNREAL conflicts like Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Somalia, Yemen etc etc

 

[T.Lex]

So, read that Buzzfeed is turning down about $1M in revenue and not taking Trump ad money. While I respect the principled decision, I can't keep track of whether Buzzfeed is on the good or bad list. I mean, I know its no Daily Koz or HuffPo, but where is it in the spectrum?

 

[ArcadiaGP]

So, read that Buzzfeed is turning down about $1M in revenue and not taking Trump ad money. While I respect the principled decision, I can't keep track of whether Buzzfeed is on the good or bad list. I mean, I know its no Daily Koz or HuffPo, but where is it in the spectrum?

Pretty left. There are a couple of acceptables there, such as Andrew Kaczinsky

Odd, seeing as they're $80m in the hole.

BuzzFeed Misses Revenue Target by $80 Million, Slashes Future Projections (Report)

 

[T.Lex]

Thanks. The rep-Trumps won't let me hit you again, but I appreciate your Urban Dictionary translation skills.

 

[chipbennett]

Indiana is no longer a "must-win" for Trump. NJ, CA, and WV should be more than enough to push him over 1237. Indiana will just be icing on the cake.

Trump may well end up in the 1300-1400 delegate range.

Just digging up this old post, to say that even I underestimated the results. In the end, Trump now has well over 1500 delegates.

 

[T.Lex]

Yeah, he exceeded my expectations in delegates - and votes, too, obviously.

My hopes/fears have melded in an unnerving way. I can't imagine the Convention denying him the nomination. At the same time, I can't imagine that huge groups of delegates will support a racemongering, policy-avoidant, flip-flopping, political novice nominee. So, those groups might try to do something about it, which will fail, and make things worse.

So... who's going to start the general election thread? (Not it.)

 

[jamil]

Just digging up this old post, to say that even I underestimated the results. In the end, Trump now has well over 1500 delegates.

If it were a race to the end, it wouldn't have been that many. It's like piling on points in the 4th quarter after the game was won in the 3rd, and the opposition has given up.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Yeah, he exceeded my expectations in delegates - and votes, too, obviously.

My hopes/fears have melded in an unnerving way. I can't imagine the Convention denying him the nomination. At the same time, I can't imagine that huge groups of delegates will support a racemongering, policy-avoidant, flip-flopping, political novice nominee. So, those groups might try to do something about it, which will fail, and make things worse.

So... who's going to start the general election thread? (Not it.)

Dig in:

https://www.indianagunowners.com/fo...2016-general-election-thread.html#post6571526

 

[chipbennett]

Yeah, he exceeded my expectations in delegates - and votes, too, obviously. (Not it.)

Speaking of primary votes:

2008 R: 22MM votes
2012 R: 19MM votes
2016 R: 30MM votes

2008 D: 38MM votes
2008 D: n/a (uncontested incumbent)
2016 D: 28MM votes

The republican primary participation is up approximately 50%, and the democrat primary participation is down almost 25%. This is a huge reason that I do not put much credence in purely poll-based assessment of Trump and Clinton, head-to-head.

If it were a race to the end, it wouldn't have been that many. It's like piling on points in the 4th quarter after the game was won in the 3rd, and the opposition has given up.

Any hopes of a contested convention died in Indiana. Cruz and Kasich staying in after that point would not have made one bit of difference. Regardless: Trump's team were widely ridiculed for saying that their internal numbers put them around 1400 delegates.

 

[T.Lex]

Speaking of primary votes:

2008 R: 22MM votes
2012 R: 19MM votes
2016 R: 30MM votes

2008 D: 38MM votes
2008 D: n/a (uncontested incumbent)
2016 D: 28MM votes

The republican primary participation is up approximately 50%, and the democrat primary participation is down almost 25%. This is a huge reason that I do not put much credence in purely poll-based assessment of Trump and Clinton, head-to-head.

Hmmm... Republican turnout +8M, Dem turnout -10M. Wonder if there's any link?

I still think overall turnout will be down for the general. But, I was clearly wrong about Trump's candidacy, so who the f knows.

 

[GodFearinGunTotin]

This would be rich.

http://thelibertarianrepublic.com/cruz-staffers-plan-coup-at-convention/

 

[Tombs]

This would be rich.

http://thelibertarianrepublic.com/cruz-staffers-plan-coup-at-convention/

Look at that, Cruz doesn't like the fact that the people rejected him and is now resorting to subversion. I always knew he was a rat.

A push originating from former Cruz staffers and conservative radio hosts this week sought to change the rules of the convention that would detach delegates from the primary results, allowing them to vote for essentially anyone on the first round vote on the floor of the convention.