The Republican Primary Race Is Filling Up

[T.Lex]

Some traditional democrats genuinely want Trump to win, but also a lot of Democrats are voting strategically.

If the Dems had a single candidate, this might be more plausible. But, they are in their own internecine fight. How many Republicans are crossing over to vote strategically? Probably a statistical number approaching zero.

I haven't seen this quantified anywhere, and I haven't heard anything like this among my Democrat friends. (Of which, there are actually more than 2.) If there are Dems crossing over for strategic reasons, then they are fools. They should be getting their own house in order.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

If the Dems had a single candidate, this might be more plausible. But, they are in their own internecine fight. How many Republicans are crossing over to vote strategically? Probably a statistical number approaching zero.

I haven't seen this quantified anywhere, and I haven't heard anything like this among my Democrat friends. (Of which, there are actually more than 2.) If there are Dems crossing over for strategic reasons, then they are fools. They should be getting their own house in order.

Eh... but what do they have to lose?

They've been "in power" for 8 years now. They can count on being in power for the next 4, at least. Clinton or Sanders... do Democrats differentiate them as much as we do? Or do they just see the D, and welcome it? (phrasing!)

I think we (liberty/freedom lovers, doesn't need to have a party tied to it) scrutinize candidates far more than they do. They probably care slightly less about elections than we do.

 

[Alpo]

That is too self-obsessed and self-serving to even comment upon.

sheesh

Your principled positions have gotten you Trump and Cruz. Remember that? Trump and Cruz.

 

[T.Lex]

Eh... but what do they have to lose?

They've been "in power" for 8 years now. They can count on being in power for the next 4, at least. Clinton or Sanders... do Democrats differentiate them as much as we do? Or do they just see the D, and welcome it? (phrasing!)

I think we (liberty/freedom lovers, doesn't need to have a party tied to it) scrutinize candidates far more than they do. They probably care slightly less about elections than we do.

Oh my. They take it as seriously as we do. I think their perspective gets lost because there are so few D's here in INGO, at least, so few that post in these topics.

Plus, the differences between HRC and Uncle Bernie are significant. They strike at the core of what it means to be a Democrat today. Well, today AND a hundred or so years ago.

But, I guess I should've been clearer. I'm really only disagreeing with Brother Jamil on the quantification of how many Ds are crossing over for strategic reasons. I think it is very small. I think the larger portion of cross-over Ds are doing so - and I believe the are crossing over - because they like the idea of Trump. He is more than a middle finger at the GOPe, he's a middle finger to Washington DC overall. In Trump, they see someone who is really one of them, but has been able to pass himself off as a leading Republican. They love that.

Just like with Republican Trump supporters, what he says doesn't really matter. They see what they want to see.

 

[chipbennett]

To be fair, Trump is getting a lot of Democrat crossover. His biggest wins tend to be in states with open primaries. Some traditional democrats genuinely want Trump to win, but also a lot of Democrats are voting strategically. I wouldn't expect them to be voting for Trump if he won the nomination.

It is possible, but not demonstrably probable, that a statistically significant number of Democrat voters are crossing over as agents provocateur in the Republican primary.

The alternative explanation is that there is a large contingent of center-right people who historically identify as Democrat, who are choosing to vote for Trump not to sow chaos, but because they actually support Trump. They are the blue-collar people who comprise the majority of the Trump rallies attended by thousands and tens of thousands.

These people flocked to Reagan. They appear to be flocking to Trump - for similar, and different, reasons, of course. If Trump wins the republican nomination, those same people will vote for him in the general.

But I do agree that at this point it is ridiculous to take polls of potential head-to-head match-ups seriously. Those head-to-head candidates haven't had the chance to do all their pivots, and maneuvering, and tearing each other down. It's especially ridiculous to think Bernie would beat everyone. No one has seriously challenged his nonsense. Hillary can't do it because she needs the millennials' votes, and if she harshed their utopian mellow they'd all retreat into their safe spaces and not vote at all.

There is also the point that intra-party fighting is still taking place, and intra-party rhetoric (such as #NeverTrump) will manifest in hypothetical inter-party head-to-head polls. While some of the #NeverTrump-type rhetoric (and similar rhetoric against [insert candidate here]) will translate into actual non-votes in the general, some of it is purely rhetoric, and will not translate into non-votes in the general. Some of those #NeverTrump people will, in fact, vote for Trump in the general if he wins the nomination. But, if polled right now, their #NeverTrump rhetoric is going to influence their poll responses. Those responses will artificially deflate Trump vs. a democrat opponent. (The same is true for all other hypothetical head-to-head polls.)

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Oh my. They take it as seriously as we do. I think their perspective gets lost because there are so few D's here in INGO, at least, so few that post in these topics.

Maybe... but the world, and obviously America, is on a liberal swing right now. Policy and social attitude is sprinting to the far left. If I were a Democrat, I'd feel... I guess... comfortable. I'd feel more confident that my party is probably going to win for a little while. I'd probably not be that involved in politics at this current time.

As a freedom/liberty guy... I don't feel confident at all. I don't expect a freedom/liberty President to win again (ever?). But maybe I'm exaggerating how bad things are in my head. Dunno.

I have more to lose than they do, I guess. Their arguments are mostly bull**** and exist in their minds or in lies (global warming, gender wage gap, etc). My arguments exist in the Constitution and principles of freedom... and are real things. I can lose them, because I currently have them. They just want more of what they don't have. It's easier for them to attain things... and it's hard for us to re-attain what we lose.

 

[T.Lex]

My friend, things are cyclical. Indeed, the US was in similar waters about a hundred years ago. The time since then has had triumphs and tragedies, as the next hundred years will, too.

If anything, our swing to the left is lagging behind other places. Particularly in Euroland, there is a bounce back against leftism to the far right.

My fear is not that we will swing left, but that we will swing to the far, far right afterward. I think our checks and balances can handle most leftist trends.

 

[jamil]

If the Dems had a single candidate, this might be more plausible. But, they are in their own internecine fight. How many Republicans are crossing over to vote strategically? Probably a statistical number approaching zero.

I haven't seen this quantified anywhere, and I haven't heard anything like this among my Democrat friends. (Of which, there are actually more than 2.) If there are Dems crossing over for strategic reasons, then they are fools. They should be getting their own house in order.

Republicans have their own fight going on. Earlier in the race I read and heard reporting on exit polls that suggested Democrats were crossing over to vote Republican at twice the rate of the last election. Reasons given by those democrats: To vote for Trump because they like trump (typically union/blue collar types), to vote against Trump because they hate Trump (liberals), To vote strategically for Trump (Hillary voters who assumed she'd beat Bernie easily. Since Bernie's won many of the last several states I think there are fewer of those.

That is too self-obsessed and self-serving to even comment upon.

sheesh

Your principled positions have gotten you Trump and Cruz. Remember that? Trump and Cruz.

Oh, and you have such a great choice between a senile old **** socialist who's never worked a real job in his life, and an old hag career criminal? It's not "principles" that nominate THE MOST UNPOPULAR Republican. Will it be "principles" that nominate THE MOST UNPOPULAR Democrat?

The reason we're stuck with the 5 losers still in the race is the two party system and the process of choosing nominees. We have a staggered primary/caucus season, really ****ed up delegate rules, and then we get to vote for whichever loser ends up on top. By this process you will get to choose between Hillary and Trump. Your party WILL nominate Hillary. The Republicans will mostly likely nominate Trump. How ****ed up is that? The two nominees will be the two most unpopular candidates in the running from the start.

 

[Alpo]

I was responding to this:

Eh... but what do they have to lose?
I think we (liberty/freedom lovers, doesn't need to have a party tied to it) scrutinize candidates far more than they do. They probably care slightly less about elections than we do.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

I was responding to this:

And this detailed what I was referring to.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Huh...

CA120: The voter surge is now Capitol Weekly | Capitol Weekly | Capitol Weekly: The Newspaper of California State Government and Politics.


California voter registration surge this year:
Dem +185%
GOP +63%
Latino +98%
Age 18-24 +70%

 

[chipbennett]

Huh...

CA120: The voter surge is now Capitol Weekly | Capitol Weekly | Capitol Weekly: The Newspaper of California State Government and Politics.


California voter registration surge this year:
Dem +185%
GOP +63%
Latino +98%
Age 18-24 +70%

Given that California didn't even hold a Democratic primary in 2012, I'm not sure this number has much meaning. (I wonder how they compare to 2008?)

Also: what is measured here are new registrations, not total registrations.

 

[Landon]

Trump goes 5 for 5 today

 

[chipbennett]

Trump goes 5 for 5 today

Trump now has more than 50% of pledged delegates that have been awarded so far.

 

[Twangbanger]

Trump now has more than 50% of pledged delegates that have been awarded so far.

~370 delegates ahead of Cruz. Wow.

 

[Super Bee]

Yep, Huuuuge win for Trump tonight. Last I heard he was leading Indiana too. He may just make the 1237.

 

[BugI02]

Pennsylvania	Votes	Percent	Del.	(53%)
Trump	342,087	58.1	17
Cruz	125,602	21.3	0
Kasich	107,526	18.3	0

Maryland	Votes	Percent	Del.	(31%)
Trump	120,036	56.2	29
Kasich	46,125	21.6	0
Cruz	39,751	18.6

Connecticut	Votes	Percent	Del.	(63%)
Trump	89,449	59.1	28
Kasich	40,851	27.0	0
Cruz	17,745	11.7	0

Rhode Island	Votes	Percent	Del.	(95%)
Trump	36,714	64.2	9
Kasich	13,919	24.3	5
Cruz	5,834	10.2	0

Rhode Island	Votes	Percent	Del.	(95%)
Trump	36,714	64.2	9
Kasich	13,919	24.3	5
Cruz	5,834	10.2	0

Hmmm. Look at those voter percentages. Something something ceiling something.
Cruz last in all but one

 

[GodFearinGunTotin]

Liberal states like liberal candidates. This is the state of the Union.

Like him or not, Cruz is the only candidate that even mentions the Constitution at all during his campaign speeches. One thing this campaign has really driven home for me it that many "conservatives" care as little for Constitutional restraint and governance as do most liberals.

 

[Route 45]

Liberal states like liberal candidates. This is the state of the Union.

Like him or not, Cruz is the only candidate that even mentions the Constitution at all during his campaign speeches. One thing this campaign has really driven home for me it that many "conservatives" care as little for Constitutional restraint and governance as do most liberals.

Maybe there are not as many conservatives in this nation as you think there are. Or perhaps the word "conservative" doesn't automatically mean Bible-thumpy in this day and age. Get used to it.

 

[BugI02]

She's warming up backstage

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