The Republican Primary Race Is Filling Up

[Kutnupe14]

Until he moves to the left on an issue, I have trouble finding fault.

I can call all the candidates liars and easily prove it if I want to. They're all a roll of the dice. So far, Trump seems to be selling the best platforms to me.

I can't vote for someone assuming everything they say is a lie, have to give them a chance to prove one way or another. If he picks a decent VP, it'll be the deal maker or breaker as to where his heart is.

Amazing how many Americans are willing to sell their souls. On the eve of a minority leaving the White House, and the "majority" becoming just another "minority," it's very difficult to for me not replace the word "Great," in Trump's campaign slogan with "White." And while no one will admit it, you don't have to. Trump has been very purposeful in his rhetoric.

 

[jamil]

Until he moves to the left on an issue, I have trouble finding fault.

I can call all the candidates liars and easily prove it if I want to. They're all a roll of the dice. So far, Trump seems to be selling the best platforms to me.

I can't vote for someone assuming everything they say is a lie, have to give them a chance to prove one way or another. If he picks a decent VP, it'll be the deal maker or breaker as to where his heart is.

I dunno. Some people can spot a con man. Some people can't. Show me a realistic floor on Trump and I'd be more inclined to consider him.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Bruce Jenner endorses Ted Cruz, wants to be his "trans ambassador"

 

[jamil]

Amazing how many Americans are willing to sell their souls. On the eve of a minority leaving the White House, and the "majority" becoming just another "minority," it's very difficult to for me not replace the word "Great," in Trump's campaign slogan with "White." And while no one will admit it, you don't have to. Trump has been very purposeful in his rhetoric.

C'mon man. Not everything is a dog whistle. I mean, jeez. That doesn't even cross my mind with Trump's rhetoric. In my estimation America isn't as great as it was 8 years ago. I think race relations weren't all that great 8 years ago, but are even worse now.

I'm not a Trump fan by any stretch. But the David Duke **** is just a red herring. There are other realer reasons to fear Trump closing the deal.

 

[jamil]

Bruce Jenner endorses Ted Cruz, wants to be his "trans ambassador"

Bruce Jenner has a mental disorder. He doesn't need to be told how brave he is. He needs psychological therapy.

 

[Tombs]

I dunno. Some people can spot a con man. Some people can't. Show me a realistic floor on Trump and I'd be more inclined to consider him.

If his goal was money and power, why is he running for the white house? Wouldn't it be far cheaper and easier to lobby?

People have yet to show his motivations for maliciously pursuing the white house, and why it makes sense for him to lose the number of business contracts he has for it.

They can yell conman until their face is blue, but until the conman stands to gain more than they already have I'm left wondering how that's relevant.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

C'mon man. Not everything is a dog whistle. I mean, jeez. That doesn't even cross my mind with Trump's rhetoric. In my estimation America isn't as great as it was 8 years ago. I think race relations weren't all that great 8 years ago, but are even worse now.

I'm not a Trump fan by any stretch. But the David Duke **** is just a red herring. There are other realer reasons to fear Trump closing the deal.

To be fair, I considered Trump on the racist side far before the Duke/KKK thing. Those he has no real control over.

His actions and tendencies, however... brings those sorts of crowds. Not sure if you're a Twitter guy, but the Trumpkins on there are the most white-power, anti-Semite bunch I've seen back a candidate in a long time.

I don't follow the accusations of sexism/bigot/homophobe when it comes to Trump, those don't have any basis that I've seen. Race, though... I mean, he really doesn't seem to like Hispanic/Muslim people. And I'm not really a "sins of the father" sort of guy, but given the rest of him... have to wonder about that apple tree sometimes.

(This is in reference to his social media supporters. Does not necessarily apply to any of his INGO followers.)

 

[jamil]

If his goal was money and power, why is he running for the white house? Wouldn't it be far cheaper and easier to lobby?

People have yet to show his motivations for maliciously pursuing the white house, and why it makes sense for him to lose the number of business contracts he has for it.

They can yell conman until their face is blue, but until the conman stands to gain more than they already have I'm left wondering how that's relevant.

I'd have thought the answer to that was intuitive. Maybe not. Who will say "I told you so?"

 

[jamil]

To be fair, I considered Trump on the racist side far before the Duke/KKK thing. Those he has no real control over.

His actions and tendencies, however... brings those sorts of crowds. Not sure if you're a Twitter guy, but the Trumpkins on there are the most white-power, anti-Semite bunch I've seen back a candidate in a long time.

I don't follow the accusations of sexism/bigot/homophobe when it comes to Trump, those don't have any basis that I've seen. Race, though... I mean, he really doesn't seem to like Hispanic/Muslim people. And I'm not really a "sins of the father" sort of guy, but given the rest of him... have to wonder about that apple tree sometimes.

(This is in reference to his social media supporters. Does not necessarily apply to any of his INGO followers.)

Well ya. You're a hater. Of course it's easier to believe the worst.

Sure, I've seen some of the stuff on Twitter. I'm not surprised that the skin heads, neo nazi's, KKK, whatever, picked the only guy speaking out against immigration to back. You show me a credible source that shows Trump supports any of those groups, and I'll add that to my list of Trump negatives. Until then I'll assume that this is mostly straw skeletons.

 

[printcraft]

Amazing how many Americans are willing to sell their souls. On the eve of a minority leaving the White House, and the "majority" becoming just another "minority," it's very difficult to for me not replace the word "Great," in Trump's campaign slogan with "White." And while no one will admit it, you don't have to. Trump has been very purposeful in his rhetoric.

 

[BugI02]

First, I didn't say Cruz has the best chance because I like him or because I want him to win. My favorite is out. At this point I almost don't give a **** which non-trump candidate gets the nomination.

I just don't see the math that says Rubio has a better shot at beating Trump than Cruz ....

Polling Data

Poll	Date	Sample	MoE	Trump	Rubio	Cruz	Kasich	Carson	Spread
RCP Average	2/21 - 2/25	--	--	44.7	26.0	12.3	8.3	4.7	Trump +18.7
PPP (D)	2/24 - 2/25	464 LV	4.6	45	25	10	8	5	Trump +20
Gravis	2/24 - 2/24	751 LV	3.6	45	25	15	10	5	Trump +20
Quinnipiac	2/21 - 2/24	705 LV	3.7	44	28	12	7	4	Trump +16

All Florida Republican Presidential Primary Polling Data​

Trump polling +6.4 over the combination of Cruz and Rubio in Florida, and thats outside of MoE. You admitted that not all of eithers voters would cross over to the other, so whither the win in Florida?

In the only recent polling data for Ohio on RCP:

Trump 31%
Cruz 21%
Rubio 13%
Kasich 26%

The MoE is 3.6%, so Cruzio/Rubiuz would be +3% on Trump - not outside MoE. Equally possible they finish second to
Trump and Kasich third - but its winner take all

Polling Data

Poll	Date	Sample	MoE	Trump	Rubio	Cruz	Kasich	Carson	Spread
RCP Average	2/15 - 2/24	--	--	33.0	17.5	15.5	11.0	--	Trump +15.5
WeAskAmerica	2/24 - 2/24	1311 LV	3.0	38	21	16	9	--	Trump +17
The Simon Poll/SIU	2/15 - 2/20	306 RV	5.6	28	14	15	13	6	Trump +13

All Illinois Republican Presidential Primary Polling Data​

Again Trump even with Cruzio/Rubiuz, not outside MoE. If Trump wins all three, which is very possible, he gets another 234 delegates.


Polling Data

Poll	Date	Sample	MoE	Trump	Cruz	Rubio	Carson	Kasich	Spread
RCP Average	1/30 - 2/17	--	--	29.8	19.5	17.5	9.5	6.8	Trump +10.3
Elon University	2/15 - 2/17	733 LV	3.6	28	19	16	10	7	Trump +9
SurveyUSA	2/14 - 2/16	437 LV	4.8	36	18	18	10	7	Trump +18
PPP (D)	2/14 - 2/16	597 LV	4.1	29	19	16	9	11	Trump +10
High Point	1/30 - 2/4	477 LV	4.5	26	22	20	9	2	Trump +4

All North Carolina Republican Presidential Primary Polling Data​

N. Carolina. Cruzio/Rubiuz +7.2 on Trump but its 72 delegates are proportional, say Trump gets 1/3 to 1/2. Thats another 24 to 36 delegates bringing his total gains to 258 to 270, while Cruzio/Rubiuz get 36 to 48 and that only if one of them takes one for the team and quickly. I just don't think the rescue mission is coming guys

 

[GodFearinGunTotin]

C'mon man. Not everything is a dog whistle. I mean, jeez. That doesn't even cross my mind with Trump's rhetoric. In my estimation America isn't as great as it was 8 years ago. I think race relations weren't all that great 8 years ago, but are even worse now.

I'm not a Trump fan by any stretch. But the David Duke **** is just a red herring. There are other realer reasons to fear Trump closing the deal.

That's because the glare coming off of your white privilege is blinding you.

 

[BugI02]

I dunno. Some people can spot a con man. Some people can't. Show me a realistic floor on Trump and I'd be more inclined to consider him.

You keep saying all the deluded Trump voters won't abandon him, no matter what. 35% of the Republican electorate. I will use the high end of percent total electorate since I believe it is evident that he is increasing turnout, so 52%. I would postulate that Trump's floor would be on the order of (.35 x .52) = 18%

 

[jamil]

That's because the glare coming off of your white privilege is blinding you.

Hey, I still have *some* hair. I'm hoping glare doesn't set in for another 5 years.

 

[jamil]

You keep saying all the deluded Trump voters won't abandon him, no matter what. 35% of the Republican electorate. I will use the high end of percent total electorate since I believe it is evident that he is increasing turnout, so 52%. I would postulate that Trump's floor would be on the order of (.35 x .52) = 18%

You misunderstood "floor". I meant that in the context of risk vs reward. The upside is what he could do that is positive. The ceiling for that is essentially what he claims he'll do. The downside is what he could do instead of what he's claimed. I don't see a floor to that. That's why I won't support him over any of the other Republicans. The floor with Hillary is quite visible. And it's really ****ing low. And the ceiling isn't much higher. So if Trump won the nomination I'd have to roll the dice and hope he ends up somewhere acceptable.

 

[BugI02]

Gotcha. I'm glad that in the breech you would consider voting for Trump if he is the nominee. I really feel that the #NeverTrump crowd believes that by not voting for him if he is the nominee that their hands will be 'clean' and they will be able to tell themselves they had no part in the disaster if he loses to Hitlery. But they will most certainly have a part in the consequences thereof. Cold comfort

 

[jamil]

Gotcha. I'm glad that in the breech you would consider voting for Trump if he is the nominee. I really feel that the #NeverTrump crowd believes that by not voting for him if he is the nominee that their hands will be 'clean' and they will be able to tell themselves they had no part in the disaster if he loses to Hitlery. But they will most certainly have a part in the consequences thereof. Cold comfort

Another "Ginsburg" appointee is a guarantee with Hillary. At least there is some doubt about who Trump would nominate. I guess he's mentioned some conservatives, but he's also mentioned his sister who is progressive. So if Hillary becomes president because the #NeverTrump people stay home, yeah, they can't blame Trump for that.

 

[Tombs]

I'd have thought the answer to that was intuitive. Maybe not. Who will say "I told you so?"

Not an argument, not an answer.

Liberals think banning guns is intuitive, I believe in rational debate over trusting other's intuition.

 

[GodFearinGunTotin]

Hey, I still have *some* hair. I'm hoping glare doesn't set in for another 5 years.

Ah yeah...the dreaded chrome dome years...

 

[jamil]

Not an argument, not an answer.

Liberals think banning guns is intuitive, I believe in rational debate over trusting other's intuition.

No. You said you don't get it. I said it's intuitive. Not in the sense that you have to feel it to understand it. More like in the sense of how I'm used to hearing the term in software design. You just know it without having to think about it. For example, having mastered the use of a mouse and web browser, you don't have to think about how to use your mouse to navigate a well designed web page. That comes intuitively from your accumulated and applied knowledge. That's not a matter of feeling.