The Republican Primary Race Is Filling Up

[ArcadiaGP]

Spend some time on RCP's interactive delegate counter. It isn't easy, but you can play out all sorts of permutations. I did a reasonable projection (I had Cruz getting TX and OK) with all the remaining candidates staying in and doing well in their home states. Alas, Rubio doesn't win anything. The polls show him too far behind everywhere. Best case is 30/30/30/5/5 for him in any given state.

Even with that kind of thing, California puts Trump over 1237.

Look - you know where I stand. I hope I'm wrong. I just think chip is more rightier than my hopefulness.

ETA
Glimmer of hope - Drudge is calling MN for Rubio. I did not see that happening. Doesn't really change the math, but it is something.

Dunno man... lot of the political-types out there smarter than me are pretty confident about it:

https://twitter.com/KatiePavlich/status/704881611960152064

Brokered convention, here we come.

https://twitter.com/DLoesch/status/704882022976659457

Rubio wins MN. Not seeing how we avoid a brokered convention at this point unless we have some big losses in the next few weeks

I'd be highly skeptical of "20 points behind in Florida" at this point.

 

[miguel]

This is INGO. You're doing it wrong.

Well, hell. You usually post sensible things, so I'm not gonna get humpy with you about this one.

Maybe they don't hate him, but they don't appear to be applying a similarly scrupulous standard regarding their presumed or displayed beliefs and behaviors.

 

[T.Lex]

Dunno man... lot of the political-types out there smarter than me are pretty confident about it:

They are not smarter than you. They have a different audience.

I'd be highly skeptical of "20 points behind in Florida" at this point.

If it is more than 1 point (outside the MOE) it doesn't matter.

Well, hell. You usually post sensible things, so I'm not gonna get humpy with you about this one.

Maybe they don't hate him, but they don't appear to be applying a similarly scrupulous standard regarding their presumed or displayed beliefs and behaviors.

How many people generally are scrupulously principled? That's a rarity IMHO.

I think the MSM would love to see Clinton v. Trump so they can vilify both without working too hard. The story lines would almost literally write themselves.

 

[printcraft]

I know there are a bunch of people heavily invested in making sure a non politician NEVER gets the nomination of either party.

 

[miguel]

I think the MSM would love to see Clinton v. Trump so they can vilify both without working too hard. The story lines would almost literally write themselves.

 

[Kutnupe14]

Not true, but let's keep sexual preference slurs out of this.

Lol, still well behind I see.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Carson will be approached by GOP and encouraged to abandon presidential race, run for Florida Senate seat instead, sources tell Dana Bash at CNN

 

[Tombs]

Delegates updated:

 

[BugI02]

Starting to think the larger strategy is convention.

Trump will not get 1,237 delegates. Rubio, Cruz, Kasich aren't getting out. This will be fought on the floor.

I think they know Trump just can't happen, and they'll stick around to make sure it doesn't.

Attempt to stop Trump and just set themselves and the party on fire. Then what, beat Hitlery with Cruz/Carson? Yeah, that's the ticket

 

[chipbennett]

Dunno man... lot of the political-types out there smarter than me are pretty confident about it:

https://twitter.com/KatiePavlich/status/704881611960152064


https://twitter.com/DLoesch/status/704882022976659457

Dana is nothing but an Establishment shill. I lost all respect for her after she went with Glenn Beck to give teddy bears and soccer balls to teenager illegal aliens, and then attacked conservatives who disagreed with what they were doing.

As for Katie Pavlich: I trust her implicitly on Fast and Furious, but I don't know that she is any more attuned to the political primary process than anyone else.

I'd be highly skeptical of "20 points behind in Florida" at this point.

It depends on who gets to vote.

I find it ironic that the GOP on one hand claims to be the Big Tent party, while at the same time on the other hand were actively turning away unaffiliated (i.e. independent) voters in Oklahoma - which is that gave Cruz his win there. (My suspicion? Probably 50-75K of those Bernie votes in OK were frustrated Trump voters who were turned away by the GOP, and instead cast an anti-Hillary protest vote.)

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Trump voter on Fox News says he likes that Trump doesn’t give specific policy ideas because otherwise other candidates might steal them.


BahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahHa

Edit

Pop. Vote Avg (3/1):
Trump 34.8%
Cruz 25.4
Rubio 23.1
Kasich 8.5
Carson 6.4

Total Delegates:
Trump 315
Cruz 205
Rubio 106

 

[chipbennett]

So, it seems like the GOPe are placing all their chips on the dwindling hope of a brokered convention, on the basis of winner-take-all states with closed primaries?


States already voted, with closed primaries:


Nevada (Trump win)
Oklahoma (Cruz win)


The remaining states with closed primaries (with current RCP polling):


Connecticut (Trump 30, Carson 12, Rubio 11, Cruz 6 – old poll)
Florida (Trump 40, Rubio 20, Cruz 18)
Kentucky (Trump 35, Rubio 22, Cruz 15)
New Jersey (Trump 38, Rubio 11, Cruz 10)
New Mexico (Cruz 25, Trump 24, Rubio 19)
New York (Trump 34, Cruz 16, Rubio 16)
Ohio (Trump 31, Kasich 26, Cruz 21, Rubio 13)
Pennsylvania (Trump 21,Rubio 18, Cruz 16, Kasich 16)


Delaware (No current data)
Maine (No current data)
Nebraska (No current data)
Oregon (No current data)
South Dakota (No current data)


So, of the states with current polling data, Trump is ahead in 7 of 8.
This doesn’t seem like a viable strategy for the GOPe.

 

[T.Lex]

So, of the states with current polling data, Trump is ahead in 7 of 8.
This doesn’t seem like a viable strategy for the GOPe.

Yeah, it is still math. True, I'm not great at math, I'm better at code. So, there's a simple pseudocode conditional that would explain it:

if (count(delegatesTrump) > count(delegatesNotTrump)) then (nominee=Trump) //on the first vote

Basically, right now, Trump leads the entire field in delegates. That means he's getting the majority. If that trend continues - and I see no reason to think it won't - then he'll have a majority of the delegates at the end. That means no brokered convention, unless he gets stupid and picks people who betray him.

Anyone think it is a plausible scenario that dozens of Trump supporters will betray him?

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Yeah, it is still math. True, I'm not great at math, I'm better at code. So, there's a simple pseudocode conditional that would explain it:

if (count(delegatesTrump) > count(delegatesNotTrump)) then (nominee=Trump) //on the first vote

Basically, right now, Trump leads the entire field in delegates. That means he's getting the majority. If that trend continues - and I see no reason to think it won't - then he'll have a majority of the delegates at the end. That means no brokered convention, unless he gets stupid and picks people who betray him.

Anyone think it is a plausible scenario that dozens of Trump supporters will betray him?

Still has to get 1237 though, right? Majority won't matter unless that magic number is met?

Edit:

Chris Christie’s wordless screaming

"Nobody is coming for you, Chris Christie. Nobody is coming to save you."
"...Donald Trump...held an entire press conference. But it was impossible to hear him over Chris Christie’s eyes."

did anyone check to see if he was blinking in morse code? is it possible he's being held hostage?

 

[pudly]

 

[jamil]

Yeah, it is still math. True, I'm not great at math, I'm better at code. So, there's a simple pseudocode conditional that would explain it:

if (count(delegatesTrump) > count(delegatesNotTrump)) then (nominee=Trump) //on the first vote

Basically, right now, Trump leads the entire field in delegates. That means he's getting the majority. If that trend continues - and I see no reason to think it won't - then he'll have a majority of the delegates at the end. That means no brokered convention, unless he gets stupid and picks people who betray him.

Anyone think it is a plausible scenario that dozens of Trump supporters will betray him?

Still has to get 1237 though, right? Majority won't matter unless that magic number is met?

Edit:

Chris Christie’s wordless screaming

"Nobody is coming for you, Chris Christie. Nobody is coming to save you."
"...Donald Trump...held an entire press conference. But it was impossible to hear him over Chris Christie’s eyes."

Guys. Majority = > half. Trump's delgate percentage is in the mid 30s. The only thing that will get him a majority is 50% + 1 = 1237 delegates. If it weren't for winner take all states, Trump couldn't possibly win an outright majority with all the candidates paricipating because it's not getting > 50% of the vote. Since Trump is leading in most of the winner take all states, he definately has an avantage since he doesn't need to win >50% of the vote to get 100% of the delegates, he only needs to win with a plurality of votes.

 

[Route 45]

Lol, still well behind I see.

It's a joke. I know what a Fokker biplane is, hero. You're not as clever as you think you are.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

I think the MSM would love to see Clinton v. Trump so they can vilify both without working too hard. The story lines would almost literally write themselves.

The biggest myth of this election is that Trump has found a way to use the media. The media is using him and will do so until he's nominee.

 

[T.Lex]

Still has to get 1237 though, right? Majority won't matter unless that magic number is met?

Guys. Majority = > half. Trump's delgate percentage is in the mid 30s. The only thing that will get him a majority is 50% + 1 = 1237 delegates. If it weren't for winner take all states, Trump couldn't possibly win an outright majority with all the candidates paricipating because it's not getting > 50% of the vote. Since Trump is leading in most of the winner take all states, he definately has an avantage since he doesn't need to win >50% of the vote to get 100% of the delegates, he only needs to win with a plurality of votes.

Not exactly. He's getting >50% of the delegates with ~30% of the vote because even in proportional states the winner can (does not always, but can) get more votes. It rewards the winner, which is usually a good thing.

At this moment, there have been 681 delegates awarded. Trump has 316, that's ~46%. (When I looked last night, he had more than 50%). If the rest of the field can keep him below that, then yes - brokered convention.

The problem is the preponderance of winner-take-all states. Each one of those that Trump wins deepens the hole for the rest of the field, as a percentage.

 

[T.Lex]

The biggest myth of this election is that Trump has found a way to use the media. The media is using him and will do so until he's nominee.

I don't think of it as a "use" paradigm. He gets a ton more "earned media" because of who he is. They will cover him because they have to, to get viewers. He will deal with them because he has to, to keep his name on the chyron. There's a mutuality about it.