The Republican Primary Race Is Filling Up

[printcraft]

Listening to Rubio talk now..... Sufferin' succotash.

 

[chipbennett]

Starting to think the larger strategy is convention.

Trump will not get 1,237 delegates. Rubio, Cruz, Kasich aren't getting out. This will be fought on the floor.

I think they know Trump just can't happen, and they'll stick around to make sure it doesn't.

Where are the votes that are going to prevent Trump from getting to 1237?

The firewall was today, and before, when delegates were distributed proportionally. After today, the states move to winner-take-all. Trump will win Florida and Ohio. He's polling around 40%. If that holds, Trump crosses the line sometime next month.

Moreover, Trump now has 5 of the necessary 8 states with majority-delegate wins. No other candidate has even one.

I'm not seeing how the math works out for a brokered convention.

 

[Twangbanger]

Listening to Rubio talk now..... Sufferin' succotash.

"Lucy, you got s'some s'plainin' to do."

"WAAaahhhhh!"

 

[Twangbanger]

Where are the votes that are going to prevent Trump from getting to 1237?

The firewall was today, and before, when delegates were distributed proportionally. After today, the states move to winner-take-all...I'm not seeing how the math works out for a brokered convention.

Yeah. It really depends. States can do things however they want to, especially after the "proportionality window" closes in mid March. The GOP will penalize states for either having primaries too early, or else holding Winner Take All contests before mid March. But after mid-March the party allows them to do whatever they want. Many still have latitude under state law to hold Proportional or "winner-take-most" primaries. If the national party spreads enough money around in the states, they could potentially induce those states to stay Proportional in their delegate allocations...if it benefits the Establishment to do so.

 

[miguel]

I miss ¡Jeb!

 

[Twangbanger]

I miss ¡Jeb!

You are Cold.

 

[printcraft]

I miss ¡Jeb!

brokered convention

 

[CountryBoy1981]

Where are the votes that are going to prevent Trump from getting to 1237?

The firewall was today, and before, when delegates were distributed proportionally. After today, the states move to winner-take-all. Trump will win Florida and Ohio. He's polling around 40%. If that holds, Trump crosses the line sometime next month.

Moreover, Trump now has 5 of the necessary 8 states with majority-delegate wins. No other candidate has even one.

I'm not seeing how the math works out for a brokered convention.

Rubio staying in secures the winner take all states for Trump to get the delegates he needs.

 

[Route 45]

one is a bi-Fokker

Not true, but let's keep sexual preference slurs out of this.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

wow...

Lindsey Graham on CBS just now: "we may be in a position where we have to rally around Ted Cruz."

 

[miguel]

For the Trump haters...what is your take on the fact that the hate coming in for Trump from the GOP establishment and MSM is not mirrored on the Democratic side for Hillary? Surely she is equally or more evil than the Donald?

 

[Twangbanger]

wow...

Lindsey Graham on CBS just now: "we may be in a position where we have to rally around Ted Cruz."

"...Naah...just Fokkin' Witcha!"

 

[Route 45]

wow...

Lindsey Graham on CBS just now: "we may be in a position where we have to rally around Ted Cruz."

[video=youtube;VFCM6TZgTMI]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VFCM6TZgTMI[/video]

 

[GodFearinGunTotin]

wow...

Lindsey Graham on CBS just now: "we may be in a position where we have to rally around Ted Cruz."

That crow I bet backfires pretty good.

 

[CountryBoy1981]

For the Trump haters...what is your take on the fact that the hate coming in for Trump from the GOP establishment and MSM is not mirrored on the Democratic side for Hillary? Surely she is equally or more evil than the Donald?

There are many people who will not vote for Trump. Dems always rally around their candidate and she will have the support of the media.

 

[T.Lex]

Where are the votes that are going to prevent Trump from getting to 1237?

The firewall was today, and before, when delegates were distributed proportionally. After today, the states move to winner-take-all. Trump will win Florida and Ohio. He's polling around 40%. If that holds, Trump crosses the line sometime next month.

Moreover, Trump now has 5 of the necessary 8 states with majority-delegate wins. No other candidate has even one.

I'm not seeing how the math works out for a brokered convention.

Reluctantly, I agree with this assessment. The math just doesn't work. Trump will be the nominee - unless there's a March surprise of some sort.

For the Trump haters...what is your take on the fact that the hate coming in for Trump from the GOP establishment and MSM is not mirrored on the Democratic side for Hillary? Surely she is equally or more evil than the Donald?

First, I reject the notion that the MSM hates Trump. They love him. He brings ratings.

Second, I think the GOP hates Trump for 2 reasons: he is a bad choice and he is not their bad choice.

I find Trump and Hillary to be equally repugnant, but for different reasons. Well, some of the same conceptual reasons, but mostly different reasons.

 

[miguel]

First, I reject the notion that the MSM hates Trump. They love him. He brings ratings.

Second, I think the GOP hates Trump for 2 reasons: he is a bad choice and he is not their bad choice.

I find Trump and Hillary to be equally repugnant, but for different reasons. Well, some of the same conceptual reasons, but mostly different reasons.

Reasonable reply.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Reluctantly, I agree with this assessment. The math just doesn't work. Trump will be the nominee - unless there's a March surprise of some sort.

Yet, I don't see the math where Trump gets 1237 if Cruz, Rubio, and Kasich remain in. Kasich will hold Ohio, Rubio is going to get 20% in TX, above 20% in TN, and pick up a MN tonight. Rubio also apparently has a good run of states coming up, and ... although he didn't do great tonight, he did better than the "blowouts" everyone keeps saying are going to happen with Trump.

This could actually work. Cruz and Rubio need to go on an all-out attack on Trump from here on. NH, NV, MA, AL... those are favorable Trump states. There are more IA/MN/VA-types ahead.

595 delegates up for grabs tonight. Despite racking up wins in at least 6 states, Trump will not win a majority of today's delegates.

Cruz's path to the nomination assumes we add more Southern states to the Union before June.

 

[T.Lex]

Reasonable reply.

This is INGO. You're doing it wrong.

 

[T.Lex]

Yet, I don't see the math where Trump gets 1237 if Cruz, Rubio, and Kasich remain in. Kasich will hold Ohio, Rubio is going to get 20% in TX, above 20% in TN, and pick up a MN tonight. Rubio also apparently has a good run of states coming up, and ... although he didn't do great tonight, he did better than the "blowouts" everyone keeps saying are going to happen with Trump.

This could actually work. Cruz and Rubio need to go on an all-out attack on Trump from here on. NH, NV, MA, AL... those are favorable Trump states. There are more IA/MN/VA-types ahead.

595 delegates up for grabs tonight. Despite racking up wins in at least 6 states, Trump will not win a majority of today's delegates.

Spend some time on RCP's interactive delegate counter. It isn't easy, but you can play out all sorts of permutations. I did a reasonable projection (I had Cruz getting TX and OK) with all the remaining candidates staying in and doing well in their home states. Alas, Rubio doesn't win anything. The polls show him too far behind everywhere. Best case is 30/30/30/5/5 for him in any given state.

Even with that kind of thing, California puts Trump over 1237.

Look - you know where I stand. I hope I'm wrong. I just think chip is more rightier than my hopefulness.

ETA
Glimmer of hope - Drudge is calling MN for Rubio. I did not see that happening. Doesn't really change the math, but it is something.