The President Trump Immigration Thread

[SheepDog4Life]

great starting point for negotiations. It’s very middle of the road compared to what the left has been fearing, and fearmongering for that matter.

Ideal conclusions are passage of all of the above without a single Democratic vote, or fillibuster to prevent an apparent passage of the legislation... puts the Democrats and their far-left base way out on a limb far outside the mainstream of popular opinion.

So, no need to negotiate a single thing. It either passes or Dems loose seats in Congress. Exactly "triangulated" for a winning position, no matter the outcome.

 

[ghitch75]

Illegal immigration costing record $135 billion a year, study shows | Fox News

 

[SheepDog4Life]

Illegal immigration costing record $135 billion a year, study shows | Fox News

When illegal immigrant advocates say that the undocumented pay their way, and then some, in taxes, I'm left cynical asking the question, "how?". How do they pay income and payroll taxes (Social Security, medicare, etc) without a SSN? I theorize they get their numbers by using hidden accounting trickery such positing that they shouldn't have to pay social security taxes (though both resident and non-resident aliens must do so) and by crediting them with "negative" taxes like the Earned Income Tax Credit, though only resident aliens qualify for it (and I don't understand what policy supports doing so).

The federal costs of illegal immigration listed in the article seem reasonable just by doing some back-of-the-napkin calculations prorating the federal budget by their numbers, 12 million out of the total 323 million population, and excluding entitlements like SS that require a SSN. Doing so assumes that illegals are no more, nor no less, a burden than the average citizen or LPR... a premise I think is incorrect, so the numbers are conservative, IMO. (i.e. illegals "cost" more in government benefits than the average citizen/LPR)

 

[IndyDave1776]

When illegal immigrant advocates say that the undocumented pay their way, and then some, in taxes, I'm left cynical asking the question, "how?". How do they pay income and payroll taxes (Social Security, medicare, etc) without a SSN?

The presumption is that when they illegally use YOUR SSN, the taxes are deducted and paid as if YOU earned the money.

 

[SheepDog4Life]

The presumption is that when they illegally use YOUR SSN, the taxes are deducted and paid as if YOU earned the money.

I think you are right, though it's tough to find anything "solid" on it. The US News article below indicates that of the estimated 12.1 million illegal aliens, an estimated 8 million are employed or seeking employment... and an estimated (by a pro-illegal group) 75% pay social security taxes. 75% of 8 million means 6 million stolen identity crimes above and beyond "merely" being illegally present.

https://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2016-03-01/study-undocumented-immigrants-pay-billions-in-taxes

Another way to look at this is that the federal, state and local governments spend a combined $5 trillion dollars a year. There are an estimated 125.8 million households in the US, including an estimated 3.4 million illegal immigrant households. If they were paying "their share" of the annual tab, those households would pay $134.9 billion in income, payroll, sales, property and business/corporate taxes. The article below by left-leaning Politifact estimates they pay between $12 billion and $17.6 billion, leaving a net deficit of $117.3 billion even using the higher estimate of taxes paid.

How much do undocumented immigrants pay in taxes? | PunditFact

The estimates of taxes paid by both left- and right- leaning think tanks would have to be off by a factor of 10 (i.e. they pay 10 times the taxes estimated) for their presence to break even.

It just ain't so... not even close.


tl;dr: Illegals use 6 million stolen identities and pay $117 billion less than their share of the federal/state/local spending tab in taxes

 

[IndyDave1776]

I think you are right, though it's tough to find anything "solid" on it. The US News article below indicates that of the estimated 12.1 million illegal aliens, an estimated 8 million are employed or seeking employment... and an estimated (by a pro-illegal group) 75% pay social security taxes. 75% of 8 million means 6 million stolen identity crimes above and beyond "merely" being illegally present.

https://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2016-03-01/study-undocumented-immigrants-pay-billions-in-taxes

Another way to look at this is that the federal, state and local governments spend a combined $5 trillion dollars a year. There are an estimated 125.8 million households in the US, including an estimated 3.4 million illegal immigrant households. If they were paying "their share" of the annual tab, those households would pay $134.9 billion in income, payroll, sales, property and business/corporate taxes. The article below by left-leaning Politifact estimates they pay between $12 billion and $17.6 billion, leaving a net deficit of $117.3 billion even using the higher estimate of taxes paid.

How much do undocumented immigrants pay in taxes? | PunditFact

The estimates of taxes paid by both left- and right- leaning think tanks would have to be off by a factor of 10 (i.e. they pay 10 times the taxes estimated) for their presence to break even.

It just ain't so... not even close.


tl;dr: Illegals use 6 million stolen identities and pay $117 billion less than their share of the federal/state/local spending tab in taxes

You hit on a very good point which is critical to dealing with the issue: Finding good numbers is like nailing Jello to the wall. I surmise that this problem is made much worse through the deliberate efforts of the open borders types to make an honest conversation impossible, as is common with most contentious issues. Voter fraud anyone? Oh, that's right. There is no such thing even though several hundred counties turned in more votes than they have people in the last election.

 

[KLB]

You hit on a very good point which is critical to dealing with the issue: Finding good numbers is like nailing Jello to the wall. I surmise that this problem is made much worse through the deliberate efforts of the open borders types to make an honest conversation impossible, as is common with most contentious issues. Voter fraud anyone? Oh, that's right. There is no such thing even though several hundred counties turned in more votes than they have people in the last election.

Out of curiosity, what do you mean more votes than people? Were there more votes than registered voters, more votes than the last census, or more votes than there are believed to be actual people in a district?

 

[SheepDog4Life]

Out of curiosity, what do you mean more votes than people? Were there more votes than registered voters, more votes than the last census, or more votes than there are believed to be actual people in a district?

Apparently, voter registration drives have been successful as there are places with more registered voters than there are citizens over the age of 18. In excess on 100% registration... lol!

https://www.indianagunowners.com/fo...ing-voter-fraud-commission-5.html#post7195757

 

[Kutnupe14]

Apparently, voter registration drives have been successful as there are places with more registered voters than there are citizens over the age of 18. In excess on 100% registration... lol!

https://www.indianagunowners.com/fo...ing-voter-fraud-commission-5.html#post7195757

That, in theory, is completely possible... and given how often the American populace moves to and fro, probably expected. If those registrations translated into counted votes, then that's a problem. However, that problem is more with the failures of those counting the votes than anything else.
For instance, I'm registered in Indiana, but if I move someplace else and register, potentially, I have the ability to cast a fraudulent ballot, and vote and two places... and would be able to do so easily. A voter ID law wouldn't prevent me from breaking the law. The only way I could be caught, is if those counting the votes were aware that I had moved.

 

[printcraft]

Apparently, voter registration drives have been successful as there are places with more registered voters than there are citizens over the age of 18. In excess on 100% registration... lol!

https://www.indianagunowners.com/fo...ing-voter-fraud-commission-5.html#post7195757

AND strangely enough only seems to happen in demoncrat controlled areas.
It’s just a strange happening.....

 

[IndyDave1776]

Out of curiosity, what do you mean more votes than people? Were there more votes than registered voters, more votes than the last census, or more votes than there are believed to be actual people in a district?

The instances I have read about were represented as more votes in the ballot box than 18+ residents in the county.

 

[BugI02]

Via Judicial Watch: http://www.judicialwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/NVRA-letter-CA-August-2017-1.pdf

For example, a comparison of the 2011-2015 U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey, and the most recent California active and inactive voter registration records shows there were more total registered voters than there were adults over the age of 18 living in each of the following eleven (11) counties: Imperial (102%), Lassen (102%), Los Angeles (112%), Monterey (104%), San Diego (138%), San Francisco (114%), San Mateo (111%), Santa Cruz (109%), Solano (111%), Stanislaus (102%), and Yolo (110%). Our own research shows that the situation in these counties is, if anything, worse than the foregoing data suggest. For example, we contacted Los Angeles County directly this past June. At that time, county officials informed us that the total number of registered voters now stands at a number that is a whopping 144% of the total number of resident citizens of voting age.

 

[SheepDog4Life]

That, in theory, is completely possible... and given how often the American populace moves to and fro, probably expected. If those registrations translated into counted votes, then that's a problem. However, that problem is more with the failures of those counting the votes than anything else.
For instance, I'm registered in Indiana, but if I move someplace else and register, potentially, I have the ability to cast a fraudulent ballot, and vote and two places... and would be able to do so easily. A voter ID law wouldn't prevent me from breaking the law. The only way I could be caught, is if those counting the votes were aware that I had moved.

Americans do move a lot... this Census bureau data indicates that 45-50 millions Americans CHANGE ADDRESS every year, which is about 15% of the population. Another way of putting it is that they change addresses on average once every 6.7 years.

While that may be very frequent, moving out of state, to a new state and hence becoming a new voter in that state while possibly still being on the previous state's registration rolls, is relatively rare in comparison. Only about 7.3 million do so, or about 2.3% of the population or once every 43.5 years on average. It takes a heck of a lot of years for 2.3% per year to add up to 44% above 100% registration (or more realistically, ~70% above realistic rates since some of these areas have double the average registration rate).

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/...raphic-mobility/state-to-state-migration.html

(and the "you" is the keepers of these inflated registration rolls, not you, Kut)

tl;dr: Americans move a lot, but rarely move to a new state which would put them on two states' voter registration rolls. American mobility doesn't explain this.

 

[SheepDog4Life]

That, in theory, is completely possible... and given how often the American populace moves to and fro, probably expected. If those registrations translated into counted votes, then that's a problem. However, that problem is more with the failures of those counting the votes than anything else.
For instance, I'm registered in Indiana, but if I move someplace else and register, potentially, I have the ability to cast a fraudulent ballot, and vote and two places... and would be able to do so easily. A voter ID law wouldn't prevent me from breaking the law. The only way I could be caught, is if those counting the votes were aware that I had moved.

If your voter registration was tied to a unique identifier, like your SSN, and states communicated, it would be extremely easy to remove you from Indiana's registration rolls when you moved out of state and registered elsewhere. Ditto catching you voting twice, in two different places, using the same SSN. (or someone voting your "old" registration for you)

Dems are fiercely opposed to this.

And, a voter ID law prevents me from voting for you in Indiana after you have moved to another state. I might tell myself, "I'm sure my old neighbor, Kut, wanted to vote for Trump so I'll help him out."

Ditto voting for someone else who didn't show up to vote, or who died.

 

[KLB]

The instances I have read about were represented as more votes in the ballot box than 18+ residents in the county.

That would be a huge red flag, but also would be hard to believe. With our voter turnout generally being in the neighborhood of 40-60%, over 100% of the census population voting would be nearly impossible.

Via Judicial Watch: http://www.judicialwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/NVRA-letter-CA-August-2017-1.pdf

I do not know what the norm is for a % of voters to be registered there, so I'm not sure what to make of those numbers. I can see some counties being at 102% with population growth, but when you get to 110+, it does get ridiculous.

 

[SheepDog4Life]

The border wall prototypes are almost complete... this articles includes pictures and information. For example, a specification was that the wall sections be 18 to 30 feet tall. All of the prototypes approach the 30 foot mark. They look very formidable compared to some current border wall sections. With the construction near complete, the Border Patrol will evaluate each prototype for how difficult each is to defeat by going over, under or through the barrier.

30-Foot Border Wall Prototypes Erected In San Diego Borderlands : NPR

 

[SheepDog4Life]

That would be a huge red flag, but also would be hard to believe. With our voter turnout generally being in the neighborhood of 40-60%, over 100% of the census population voting would be nearly impossible.


I do not know what the norm is for a % of voters to be registered there, so I'm not sure what to make of those numbers. I can see some counties being at 102% with population growth, but when you get to 110+, it does get ridiculous.

Here are some links... in the 8 years just prior to the 2016 election, which also coincides with President Obama's two terms, the number of registered voters in the US expanded to historic levels, but also at historic rates of increase. In 2008, there were 146.3 million registered voters. Just before the 2016 election, there were just over 200 million, a surge of 33%. By comparison, the total US population (citizens and non-citizens) increased by 6.2% over the same period. The 200 million registrations represents an 80.0% national average registration rate of the total population over 18 in the US (which includes non-citizens, so the actual rate is higher)

So, the question I have is how much of that "surge" was the result of successful and legitimate voter registration drives and how much was the result of incompetent, or worse, behavior?

America hits new landmark: 200 million registered voters - POLITICO
https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/US/PST045216
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_the_United_States

 

[printcraft]

The border wall prototypes are almost complete... this articles includes pictures and information. For example, a specification was that the wall sections be 18 to 30 feet tall. All of the prototypes approach the 30 foot mark. They look very formidable compared to some current border wall sections. With the construction near complete, the Border Patrol will evaluate each prototype for how difficult each is to defeat by going over, under or through the barrier.

30-Foot Border Wall Prototypes Erected In San Diego Borderlands : NPR

Good! And far far cheaper than paying for the associated welfare of illegal immigration.

 

[Alpo]

I wonder what the next level of incursion will be....

Do we need to beef up the Coast Guard to protect seaward approaches?

Amazon can deliver drugs-by-drone, so it won't completely stop the drug trade. How soon will a drone be able to pick up and deliver a person?

I know that sounds foolish, but can it be all that far away if we could have self-driving vehicles within a year?

If Yellowstone blows, are the people of Mexico going to let us in?

 

[Kutnupe14]

I wonder what the next level of incursion will be....

Do we need to beef up the Coast Guard to protect seaward approaches?

Amazon can deliver drugs-by-drone, so it won't completely stop the drug trade. How soon will a drone be able to pick up and deliver a person?

I know that sounds foolish, but can it be all that far away if we could have self-driving vehicles within a year?

If Yellowstone blows, are the people of Mexico going to let us in?

I view the "wall" as nothing more than an expensive "we do not want you here" statement. Unless ladders, explosives, and shovels are unknown or scare, south of the border, it will be little more than a speed bump for those who actually are trying to get into the country. But seriously. If you wanted to get over these walls, how difficult would it actually be? This administration is going about curbing illegal immigration in entirely the wrong way.