The Nuclear Iran Situation

[Alpo]

I know what he said and what the context was. That is NOT how it is remembered in the minds of most Americans, however.

View attachment 39940

 

[Alpo]

He will then have Iran as potential proxy.

Yes, maybe. So what? What influence do we want to have in Iran? Isn't there a greater need to shore up India?

China is making significant inroads into Africa through their business investment.

America is losing its position in the world and has been since we bled our treasury dry and decided that a service-based economy was more important than manufacturing. 700+ bases overseas and losing influence. That's some fine potatoes.

 

[jamil]

Yes, maybe. So what? What influence do we want to have in Iran? Isn't there a greater need to shore up India?

China is making significant inroads into Africa through their business investment.

America is losing its position in the world and has been since we bled our treasury dry. 700+ bases overseas and losing influence. That's some fine potatoes.

Probably apology tours don't help really.

 

[KG1]

So making a deal just for the sake of making a deal? There were other options.

LEGACY BABY!!! Obama can claim he made a deal when others could not. No matter how crappy the deal turns out to be. It's all about the legacy.

 

[Kutnupe14]

Popcorn while waiting for elaboration.

For Iran, this is a Path to Superpowerdom. For the US, there is a fine line between courageous and suicidal - especially in foreign policy.

Frankly, this makes the next POTUS election even more important. Yet, foreign policy never gets the attention it deserves in domestic elections.

I'd say utter destruction is more likely. They said this deal is "based on verification, not trust." To me that sounds like a blueprint for opening the door to military action if Iran doesn't allow "verification," (cue Hans Blix). Now I may be wrong, but I would expect that a similar commission, as the one in Iraq, would be set up to inspect for compliance.
So where's the hiccup here? You can bet Israel will be conducting their own investigations (and we know they're very good at it), so they would love to blow the whistle on any wrongdoing by Iran. IMO, Iran simply doesn't have the ability to pull off a clandestine nuclear program, and if they do, they certainly don't have the ability to test out the weapon, and crank out massive numbers of bombs prior to Israel (or even us) bombing their program back to the stone age.
And I doubt this helps Iran or Russia. I think access to Iranian oil probably plays a hand in this too.

 

[Leadeye]

Meh, North Korea all over again. They'll test a bomb in a few years and then the Saudi's will buy some. The ordinary people in the middle east will be lucky if 100 million of them don't die over a Muslim insult that's almost as old as their religion. Sad really. I just hope that this country can stay out of it and maybe help the survivors start over.

 

[actaeon277]

[video=youtube;TUzbKO5haVo]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TUzbKO5haVo[/video]

 

[Kutnupe14]

Meh, North Korea all over again. They'll test a bomb in a few years and then the Saudi's will buy some. The ordinary people in the middle east will be lucky if 100 million of them don't die over a Muslim insult that's almost as old as their religion. Sad really. I just hope that this country can stay out of it and maybe help the survivors start over.

Not really. There are a billion reasons why the Iran situation isn't similar to the North Korean one.

 

[1DOWN4UP]

LEGACY BABY!!! Obama can claim he made a deal when others could not. No matter how crappy the deal turns out to be. It's all about the legacy.

It is not about legacy.It is doing the most damage that he can do while fooling the most people into thinking he cares about this country. When Jimmy Carter makes since,you know something is wrong. ALLAHU AKBAR?

 

[JTScribe]

Helllllllloooooooooo, Middle East nuclear arms race. What's the worst that could happen?

 

[1DOWN4UP]

‘Do not forget them’: Americans held in Iran not part of nuke deal

 

[T.Lex]

I'd say utter destruction is more likely. They said this deal is "based on verification, not trust." To me that sounds like a blueprint for opening the door to military action if Iran doesn't allow "verification," (cue Hans Blix). Now I may be wrong, but I would expect that a similar commission, as the one in Iraq, would be set up to inspect for compliance.

We've been trying for years to do that in Iran, with ups and downs in terms of cooperation. What that really means is that Iran thinks they can hide the important stuff, and we think we can find the important stuff. No way to predict how that will turn out.

And besides, I can't imagine an administration from either side of the aisle pointing to Iraq as a good template for how to build consensus for an invasion. And that's me talking as someone who thinks Bush got things more right than wrong!

IMO, Iran simply doesn't have the ability to pull off a clandestine nuclear program, and if they do, they certainly don't have the ability to test out the weapon, and crank out massive numbers of bombs prior to Israel (or even us) bombing their program back to the stone age.

The Norks have tested nukes. There's some evidence that the tests were on behalf of the Iranian nuke program.
Analysis: Pyongyang nuke test may also be Iranian - Features - Jerusalem Post

And I doubt this helps Iran or Russia. I think access to Iranian oil probably plays a hand in this too.

Whose access? EU? China?

Doesn't really matter, Iran will have access to the open market to make billions of revenue without the black market discount.

Russia will get to leverage her own MIC to provide weapons - including upgraded air defenses - to Iran. Those newer air defenses also complicate any strike sorties Israel might consider.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Obama and Kerry crossed every one of their own red lines | New York Post

 

[Kutnupe14]

We've been trying for years to do that in Iran, with ups and downs in terms of cooperation. What that really means is that Iran thinks they can hide the important stuff, and we think we can find the important stuff. No way to predict how that will turn out.

And besides, I can't imagine an administration from either side of the aisle pointing to Iraq as a good template for how to build consensus for an invasion. And that's me talking as someone who thinks Bush got things more right than wrong!


The Norks have tested nukes. There's some evidence that the tests were on behalf of the Iranian nuke program.
Analysis: Pyongyang nuke test may also be Iranian - Features - Jerusalem Post


Whose access? EU? China?

Doesn't really matter, Iran will have access to the open market to make billions of revenue without the black market discount.

Russia will get to leverage her own MIC to provide weapons - including upgraded air defenses - to Iran. Those newer air defenses also complicate any strike sorties Israel might consider.

They're already talking about $2/Gallon gas by Christmas. Election year coming up, who do you think stands to benefit the most?
I personally kinda like the move. It forces Iran's hand. If they don't make the bomb, great. If they do, then they've signed off on their own destruction. I'm open to other alternative, but no one seems to have any.

 

[T.Lex]

They're already talking about $2/Gallon gas by Christmas. Election year coming up, who do you think stands to benefit the most?

That has nothing to do with Iran, though. Just ask Venezuela.

I personally kinda like the move. It forces Iran's hand. If they don't make the bomb, great. If they do, then they've signed off on their own destruction. I'm open to other alternative, but no one seems to have any.

Odd phrasing - "forces Iran's hand." It absolutely does not force Iran to do anything. Even the significant inspections will be with their permission.

There was an entire spectrum of alternatives, as noted up-thread. Obama/Kerry took a deal for the sake of making a deal. We can't predict what Iran would've accepted, if that's what you're looking for. All we know now is that they accepted a package of deals that were basically what they wanted. I don't see any concessions to any of their non-negotiable terms, yet (as noted in GPiahnhnuhn's link) we caved on several of our 'non-negotiable' terms.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Netanyahu: The bad deal grants Iran 24 days notice before a site inspection. That's as absurd as giving drug dealers a 24-day notice before a lab raid.

https://twitter.com/netanyahu/status/621342894851362816

Majority of Americans Don?t Trust Iran to Abide By Nuclear Deal Terms, Poll Says | Washington Free Beacon

 

[calcot7]

Just another step in the Liar in Chief's plan for the destruction of the U.S.A.

 

[Alpo]

You don't eliminate radiation in 24 days. Testing is a lot more sophisticated with nuclear materials. No drug dogs needed.

 

[Baditude]

As bad as this sounds sometimes I think we should let it go and get it over with. I don't see how a major war can be avoided, just hoping we have someone that has a clue in the whitehouse. I really wish there was a peaceful alternative, but you can't negotiate peace with someone bent on your destruction.

 

[Alpo]

I still fail to see what is so strategic about the middle east and southwest asia.